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Recent advances in simulation optimization: a conservative adjustment to the ETSS procedure

Published: 08 December 2002 Publication History

Abstract

Two-stage selection procedures have been widely studied and applied in determining the required sample size (i.e., the number of replications or batches) for selecting the best of <i>k</i> designs. The <i>Enhanced Two-Stage Selection</i> (ETSS) procedure is a heuristic two-stage selection procedure that takes into account not only the variance of samples, but also the difference of sample means when determining the sample sizes. This paper discusses the use of a conservative adjustment with the ETSS procedure to increase the probability of correct selection. We show how the adjustment allocates more simulation replications or batches to more promising designs at the second stage. An experimental performance evaluation demonstrates the efficiency of the adjustment.

References

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Bechhofer, R. E., T. J. Santner and, D. M. Goldsman. 1995. Design and Analysis of Experiments for Statistical Selection, Screening and Multiple Comparisons. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Berger, J. O., and J. Deely. 1994. A Bayesian Approach to Ranking and Selection of Related Means with Alternative to AOV Methodology. Journal of American Statistics Association 83: 364--373.
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Chen, C. H., J. Lin, E. Yücesan and S. E. Chick. 2000. Simulation Budget Allocation for Further Enhancing the Efficiency of Ordinal Optimization. Journal of Discrete Event Dynamic Systems, 10(3), 251--270.
[4]
Chen, E. J. 2001. Using Common Random Numbers with Two-Stage Selection Procedures. In Proceedings of the 2001 Winter Simulation Conference, ed. B. A. Peters, J. S. Smith, D. J. Medeiros, and M. W. Rohrer, 408--416. Piscataway, New Jersey: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers.
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Chen, E. J., and W. D. Kelton. 2000a. An Enhanced Two-Stage Selection Procedure. In Proceedings of the 2000 Winter Simulation Conference, ed. J. A. Joines, R. Barton, P. Fishwick, and K. Kang, 727--735. Piscataway, New Jersey: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers.
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Chen, E. J., and W. D. Kelton. 2000b. A Stopping Procedure Based on Phi-Mixing Conditions. In Proceedings of the 2000 Winter Simulation Conference, ed. J. A. Joines, R. Barton, P. Fishwick, and K. Kang, 617--626. Piscataway, New Jersey: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers.
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Chick, S. E. 1997. Selecting The Best System: A Decision-Theoretic Approach. In Proceedings of the 1997 Winter Simulation Conference, ed. S. Andradóttir, K. J. Healy, D. H. Withers, and B. L. Nelson, 326--333. Piscataway, New Jersey: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers.
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Dudewicz, E. J. and S. R. Dalal. 1975. Allocation of Observations in Ranking and Selection with Unequal Variances. Sankhya B37: 28--78.
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Goldsman D., and B. L. Nelson. 2001. Statistical Selection of The Best System. In Proceedings of the 2001 Winter Simulation Conference, ed. B. A. Peters, J. S. Smith, D. J. Medeiros, and M. W. Rohrer, 139--146. Piscataway, New Jersey: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers.
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Law, A. M., and W. D. Kelton. 2000. Simulation Modeling and Analysis. 3rd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.
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Rinott, Y. 1978. On Two-stage Selection Procedures and Related Probability Inequalities. Communications in Statistics A7: 799--811.
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Tong, Y. L. 1980. Probability Inequalities in Multivariate Distributions. New York: Academic Press.
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Wilcox, R. R., 1984. A Table for Rinott's Selection Procedure. Journal of Quality Technology Vol. 16, No. 2: 97--100.

Cited By

View all
  • (2005)Enhancing evolutionary algorithms with statistical selection procedures for simulation optimizationProceedings of the 37th conference on Winter simulation10.5555/1162708.1162855(842-852)Online publication date: 4-Dec-2005
  • (2004)Using Ordinal Optimization Approach to Improve Efficiency of Selection ProceduresDiscrete Event Dynamic Systems10.1023/B:DISC.0000018569.95048.af14:2(153-170)Online publication date: 1-Apr-2004
  • (2003)Indifference zone selection proceduresProceedings of the 35th conference on Winter simulation: driving innovation10.5555/1030818.1030881(456-464)Online publication date: 7-Dec-2003

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Published In

cover image ACM Conferences
WSC '02: Proceedings of the 34th conference on Winter simulation: exploring new frontiers
December 2002
2143 pages
ISBN:0780376153
  • General Chair:
  • Jane L. Snowdon,
  • Program Chair:
  • John M. Charnes

Sponsors

  • INFORMS/CS: Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences/College on Simulation
  • IIE: Institute of Industrial Engineers
  • ASA: American Statistical Association
  • ACM: Association for Computing Machinery
  • SIGSIM: ACM Special Interest Group on Simulation and Modeling
  • IEEE/CS: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers/Computer Society
  • NIST: National Institute of Standards and Technology
  • (SCS): The Society for Modeling and Simulation International
  • IEEE/SMCS: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers/Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Society

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Winter Simulation Conference

Publication History

Published: 08 December 2002

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WSC02
Sponsor:
  • INFORMS/CS
  • IIE
  • ASA
  • ACM
  • SIGSIM
  • IEEE/CS
  • NIST
  • (SCS)
  • IEEE/SMCS
WSC02: Winter Simulation Conference 2002
December 8 - 11, 2002
California, San Diego

Acceptance Rates

WSC '02 Paper Acceptance Rate 166 of 185 submissions, 90%;
Overall Acceptance Rate 3,413 of 5,075 submissions, 67%

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Cited By

View all
  • (2005)Enhancing evolutionary algorithms with statistical selection procedures for simulation optimizationProceedings of the 37th conference on Winter simulation10.5555/1162708.1162855(842-852)Online publication date: 4-Dec-2005
  • (2004)Using Ordinal Optimization Approach to Improve Efficiency of Selection ProceduresDiscrete Event Dynamic Systems10.1023/B:DISC.0000018569.95048.af14:2(153-170)Online publication date: 1-Apr-2004
  • (2003)Indifference zone selection proceduresProceedings of the 35th conference on Winter simulation: driving innovation10.5555/1030818.1030881(456-464)Online publication date: 7-Dec-2003

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