Abstract
This paper provides an update and extension of a 2006 paper, “Some Future Trends and Implications for Systems and Software Engineering Processes,” Systems Engineering, Spring 2006. Some of its challenges and opportunities are similar, such as the need to simultaneously achieve high levels of both agility and assurance. Others have emerged as increasingly important, such as the challenges of dealing with ultralarge volumes of data, with multicore chips, and with software as a service. The paper is organized around eight relatively surprise-free trends and two “wild cards” whose trends and implications are harder to foresee. The eight surprise-free trends are:
1. Increasing emphasis on rapid development and adaptability;
2. Increasing software criticality and need for assurance;
3. Increased complexity, global systems of systems, and need for scalability and interoperability;
4. Increased needs to accommodate COTS, software services, and legacy systems;
5. Increasingly large volumes of data and ways to learn from them;
6. Increased emphasis on users and end value;
7. Computational plenty and multicore chips;
8. Increasing integration of software and systems engineering;
The two wild-card trends are:
9. Increasing software autonomy; and
10. Combinations of biology and computing.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adomavicius, G., Tuzhilin, A.: Toward the Next Generation of Recommender Systems: A Survey of the State-of-the-Art and Possible Extensions. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering 17(6) (June 2005) 734–749
Albert, C., Brownsword, L.: Evolutionary Process for Integrating COTS-Based Systems (EPIC): An Overview. CMU/SEI-2003-TR-009. Pittsburgh, PA: Software Engineering Institute (2002)
Anthes, G.: The Future of IT. Computerworld, (March 7, 2005) 27-36
Arthur, W. B.: Increasing Returns and the New World of Business. Harvard Business Review (July/August, 1996) 100-109
Bass, L., John, B.E.: Linking usability to software architecture patterns through general scenarios. Journal of Systems and Software 66 (3) (2003) 187-197
Beck, K.: Extreme Programming Explained, Addison Wesley (1999)
Biffl, S., Aurum, A., Boehm, B., Erdogmus, H., Gruenbacher, P. (eds.): Value-Based Software Engineering. Springer Verlag (2005)
Boehm, B.: Software Engineering Economics. Prentice Hall (1981)
Boehm, B.: A Spiral Model for Software Development and Enhancement. Computer (May, 1988) 61-72
Boehm, B.: Anchoring the Software Process. Software. (July, 1996) 73-82
Boehm, B.: Some Future Trends and Implications for Systems and Software Engineering Processes, Systems Engineering, Vol. 9, No. 1 (2006) 1-19
Boehm, B.: Applying the Incremental Commitment Model to Brownfield Systems Development, Proceedings, CSER 2009 (April 2009)
Boehm, B., Bhuta, J.: Balancing Opportunities and Risks in Component-Based Software Development, IEEE Software, November-December 2008, Volume 15, Issue 6, pp. 56-63.
Boehm, B., Brown, A.W., Basili, V., Turner, R.: Spiral Acquisition of Software-Intensive Systems of Systems. CrossTalk (May, 2004) 4-9
Boehm, B., Egyed, A., Kwan, J., Port, D., Shah, A., Madachy, R.: Using the WinWin Spiral Model: A Case Study, IEEE Computer (July 1998) 33-44
Boehm. B., Hoare, C.A.R. (eds.): Proceedings, 1975 International Conference on Reliable Software, ACM/IEEE (April, 1975)
Boehm, B., Jain, A.: An Initial Theory of Value-Based Software Engineering. In: Aurum, A., Biffl, S., Boehm, B., Erdogmus, H., Gruenbacher, P. (eds.): Value-Based Software Engineering, Springer Verlag (2005)
Boehm, B., Lane, J.: Using the Incremental Commitment Model to Integrate System Acquisition, Systems Engineering, and Software Engineering. CrossTalk (October 2007) 4-9
Boehm, B., Lane, J., Koolmanojwong, S., Turner, R.: Architected Agile Solutions for Software-Reliant Systems, Proceedings, INCOSE (2010)
Boehm, B., Turner, R.: Balancing Agility and Discipline. Addison Wesley (2004)
Booher, H.(ed.): Handbook of Human Systems Integration, Wiley (2003)
Brooks, F.: The Mythical Man-Month (2nd ed.). Addison Wesley (1995)
Brooks, F., The Design of Design, Addison Wesley, 2010.
Büttcher,S., Clarke, L., Cormack, G.: Information Retrieval: Implementing and Evaluating Search Engines. MIT Press (2010)
Checkland, P.: Systems Thinking, Systems Practice. 2nd ed., Wiley (1999)
Chesbrough, H.: Open Innovation, Harvard Business School Press (2003)
Chrissis, M., B., Konrad, M., Shrum, S.: CMMI. Addison Wesley (2003)
Cockburn, A.: Agile Software Development, Addison Wesley (2002)
Collins, J.: Good to Great, Harper Collins (2001)
Crawford, D.: Editorial Pointers. Comm. ACM (October, 2001) 5
Crichton, M.: Prey, Harper Collins (2002)
CrossTalk: Top Five Quality Software Projects, (January 2002), (July 2003), (July 2004), (September 2005) http://www.stsc.hill.af.mil/crosstalk
Crosson, S., Boehm, B.: Adjusting Software Life-Cycle Anchorpoints: Lessons Learned in a System of Systems Context, Proceedings SSTC 2009 (April 2009). Also TR USC-CSSE-2009-525
Curtis, B., Hefley, B., Miller, S.: The People Capability Maturity Model. Addison Wesley (2002)
Cusumano, M., Selby, R.: Microsoft Secrets. Harper Collins (1996)
Cusumano, M.: The Business of Software. New York: Free Press/Simon & Schuster (2004)
Deck, M., Strom, M., Schwartz, K.: The Emerging Model of Co-Development. Research Technology Management (December, 2001)
Dijkstra, E.: Panel remarks. Software Engineering: As It Should Be. ICSE 4 (September, 1979) – See also EWD 791 at http://www.cs.utexas/users/EWD
Doernhofer, M.: Multicore and Multithreaded Programming, ACM Sofware Engineering Notes (July 2010) 8-16.
Drexler, K.E.: Engines of Creation. Anchor Press (1986)
Drexler, K.E., Peterson, C., Pergamit, G.: Unbounding the Future: The Nanotechnology Revolution. William Morrow & Co. (1991)
Dreyfus, H., Dreyfus, S.: Mind over Machine. Macmillan (1986)
Dyson, G. B.: Darwin Among the Machines: The Evolution of Global Intelligence, Helix Books/Addison Wesley (1997)
Ehn, P. (ed.): Work-Oriented Design of Computer Artifacts, Lawrence Earlbaum Assoc. (1990)
FCIO (Federal CIO Council): A Practical Guide to Federal Enterprise Architecture, Version 1.0. (February, 2001)
Ferguson, J.: Crouching Dragon, Hidden Software: Software in DOD Weapon Systems, IEEE Software, vol. 18, no. 4, (July/August 2001) 105-107
Gerrard, P., Thompson, N.: Risk-Based E-Business Testing. Artech House (2002)
Grady, R.: Successful Software Process Improvement. Prentice Hall (1997)
Gruenbacher, P, Koszegi, S., Biffl, S., Stakeholder Value Proposition Elicitation and Reconciliation, in Aurum, A., Biffl, S., Boehm, B., Erdogmus, H., Gruenbacher, P. (eds.): Value-Based Software Engineering, Springer (2005)
Harned, D., Lundquist, J.: What Transformation Means for the Defense Industry. The McKinsey Quarterly, (November 3, 2003) 57-63
Highsmith, J.: Adaptive Software Development. Dorset House (2000)
Hollnagel, E., Woods, D., Leveson, N. (eds.): Resilience Engineering: Concepts and Precepts. Ashgate Publishing, (2006)
Hopkins, R., Jenkins, K.: Eating the IT Elephant: Moving from Greenfield Development to Brownfield. IBM Press (2008)
Huang, L.: A Value-Based Process Achieving Software Dependability. Proceedings, Software Process Workshop 2005 (May, 2005)
Humphrey, W.: Introduction to the Personal Software Process. Addison Wesley (1997)
Humphrey, W.: Introduction to the Team Software Process. Addison Wesley (2000)
IEEE Computer: Special Issue on Multicore Programming (March 2010)
ISO (International Standards Organization): Standard for Information Technology – Software Life Cycle Processes. ISO/IEC 12207 (1995)
ISO (International Standards Organization): Systems Engineering – System Life Cycle Processes. ISO/IEC 15288 (2002)
ISO (International Standards Organization): Systems and Software Engineering – Systems and Software Assurance – Part 2: Assurance Case (ISO/IEC 15026) (2009)
Jackson, S.: Architecting Resilient Systems. Wiley (2009)
Joy, B.: Why the Future Doesn’t Need Us: Wired (April, 2000)
Koolmanojwong, S. The Incremental Commitment Model process patterns for rapid-fielding projects, Qualifying Exam Report (November 2009). Also TR USC-CSSE-2009-526
Koren, Y., Bell, R., Volinsky, C.: Matrix Factorization Techniques for Recommender Systems, Computer (August 2009) 30-37
Koskela, L., Howell, L.: The Underlying Theory of Project Management is Obsolete, Proceedings, PMI Research Conference (2002) 293-302
Kroll, P., Kruchten, P.: The Rational Unified Process Made Easy: A Practitioner's Guide to the Rational Unified Process. Addison Wesley (2003)
Kruchten, P.: The Rational Unified Process. Addison Wesley (1999)
Kurzweil, R.: The Age of Spiritual Machines. Penguin Books (1999)
Lane, J., Boehm, B., Bolas, M., Madni, A., Turner, R.: Critical Success Factors for Rapid, Innovative Solutions, Proceedings, ICSP 2010 (July 2010)
Lewis, G., Morris, E.J., Smith, D.B., Simanta, S.: SMART: Analyzing the Reuse Potential of Legacy Components on a Service-Oriented Architecture Environment, CMU/SEI-2008-TN-008 (2008)
Maranzano, J.F., Rozsypal, S.A., Zimmerman, G.H., Warnken, G.W., Wirth, P.E., Weiss, D.M.: Architecture reviews: Practice and experience. IEEE Software (March/April 2005) 34-43
Maslow, A.: Motivation and Personality. Harper and Row (1954)
Meyer, B., Mueller, P., Bay, T.: Software Engineering 2008, ETH Zurich Chair of Software Engineering (December 2008)
Meyer, B., Furia, C.: Software Engineering 2009, ETH Zurich Chair of Software Engineering (December 2009)
Musa, J.: Software Reliability Engineering. McGraw Hill (1999)
Nagappan, N., Zimmermann, T., Zeller, A. (eds.): Special Issue on Mining Software Archives, IEEE Software, (January/February 2009)
Ncube, C., Oberndorf, P., Kark, A. (eds.): Special Issue on Opportunistic System Development, IEEE Software (November/December 2008)
OMG (Object Management Group): OMG SysML v.1.2, http://www.sysml.org/specs.htm (June 2010)
Parnas, D.: Designing Software for Ease of Extension and Contraction. Transactions on Software Engineering, IEEE, SE-5, (1979)
Patterson, D.: The Trouble With Multicore, IEEE Spectrum, (July 2010) 28-32, 52-53.
Paulk, M., Weber, C., Curtis, B., Chrissis, M.: The Capability Maturity Model. Addison Wesley (1994)
Pew, R., Mavor, A. (eds.): Human-System Integration in the System development Process: A New Look, National Academies Press (2007)
PITAC (President’s Information Technology Advisory Committee): Report to the President: Information Technology Research: Investing in Our Future (1999)
Price, H., Morley, J., Create, Apply, and Amplify: A Story of Technology Development, SEI Monitor (February 2009) 2
Putman, J.: Architecting with RM-ODP. Prentice Hall (2001)
Pyster, A., et al.: Graduate Software Engineering 2009 (GSwE2009) Curriculum Guidelines, Stevens Institute (September 2009)
Rational, Inc.: Driving Better Business with Better Software Economics, Rational Software Corp. (now part of IBM) (2001)
Rechtin, E.: Systems Architecting. Prentice Hall (1991)
Royce, W. E.: Software Project Management. Addison Wesley (1998)
Schwaber, K., Beedle, M.: Agile Software Development with Scrum, Prentice Hall (2002)
Standish Group: Extreme Chaos. http://www.standishgroup.com (2001)
Toulmin, S.: Cosmopolis. University of Chicago Press (1992)
U.S. Department of Defense, MIL-STD-1521B: Reviews and Audits (1985)
U.S. Department of Defense, DOD-STD-2167A: Defense System Software Development (1988)
Womack, J., Jones, D.: Lean Thinking: Banish Waste and Create Wealth in Your Corporation. Simon & Schuster (1996)
Womack, J. P., Jones, D. T., Roos, D.: The Machine that Changed the World: The Story of Lean production. Harper Perennial (1990)
Yang, Y., Bhuta, J., Port, D., Boehm, B.: Value-Based Processes for COTS-Based Applications. IEEE Software (July/August 2005) 54-62
Yin, X., Knight, J.: Formal Verification of Large Software Systems, Proceedings, NASA Formal Methods Symposium 2 (April 2010)
Zachman, J.: A Framework for Information Systems Architecture. IBM Systems Journal (1987)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Boehm, B. (2011). Some Future Software Engineering Opportunities and Challenges. In: Nanz, S. (eds) The Future of Software Engineering. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-15187-3_1
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-15187-3_1
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-15186-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-15187-3
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)