Simulating Russia’s and Other Large Economies’ Challenging and Interconnected Transitions

Seth Benzell (), Eugene Goryunov, Maria Kazakova, Guillermo LaGarda, Kristina Nesterova and Laurence Kotlikoff

No dp-274, Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series from Boston University - Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper develops a large-scale, dynamic life-cycle model to simulate Russia’s demographic and fiscal transition under favorable and unfavorable fossil-fuel price regimes. The model includes Russia, the U.S., China, India, the EU, and Japan+ (Japan plus Korea). The model predicts dramatic increases in tax rates in the U.S., EU, India, and Russia. Indeed, the increases are so large as to question their political feasibility let alone their actual collection given the potential for tax avoidance and tax evasion.

Keywords: Corporate income tax; tax reform; demographic transition; overlapping generations (OLG); computable general equilibrium models (CGE); wage inequality; Pareto improvements; fossil fuels (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F0 F20 H0 H2 H3 J20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 52
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis
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