Forecasting Inflation using Survey Expectations and Target Inflation: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey

Sumru Altug and Çakmaklı, Cem
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Cem Çakmaklı

No 10419, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: In this paper, we formulate a statistical model of inflation that combines data on survey expectations and the inflation target set by central banks.. Our model produces inflation forecasts that are aligned with survey expectations, thereby integrating the predictive power of the survey expectations together with the baseline model. We further incorporate the inflation target set by the monetary authority to examine the effectiveness of monetary policy in forming inflation expectations and therefore, predicting inflation accurately. Results indicate superior predictive power of the proposed framework compared to the model without survey expectations as well as several popular benchmarks such as the backward and forward looking Phillips curves and naive forecasting rule

Keywords: Inflation targeting; State space models; Inflation forecasting; Survey-based expectation; Term structure of inflation expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C51 E31 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-cba, nep-cwa, nep-for, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Journal Article: Forecasting inflation using survey expectations and target inflation: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey (2016)
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