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Growth and Longevity from the Industrial Revolution to the Future of an Aging Society

David de la Croix and Malmberg Bo
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Thomas Lindh

No 2006037, Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) from Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques

Abstract: Aging of the population will affect the growth path of all countries. To assess the historical and future importance of this claim we use two popular approaches and evaluate their merits and disadvantages by confronting them to Swedish data. We first stimulate an endogenous growth. Rising longevity increases the incentive to get education, which in turn has ever-lasting effects on growth through a human capital externality. Secondly, we consider a reduced-form statistical model based on the demographic dividend literature. Assuming that there is a common DGP guiding growth through the demographic transition, we use an estimate from post-war global data to backcast the Swedish historical GDP growth. Comparing the two approaches, encompassing tests show that each of them contains independent information on the Swedish growth path, suggesting that there is a benefit from combining them for long-term forecasting

Keywords: Demographic Transition; Life Expectancy; Education; Income Growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I20 J11 N33 O41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36
Date: 2006-06-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-hea
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Growth and longevity from the industrial revolution to the future of an aging society (2006) Downloads
Working Paper: Growth and Longevity from the Industrial Revolution to the Future of an Aging Society (2006) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ctl:louvec:2006037

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