A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro area

Pilar Bengoechea and Gabriel Perez Quiros

No 215, European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 from Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission

Abstract: This paper investigates the identification and dating of the European business cycle, using different methods. We concentrate on methods and statistical series that provide timely and accurate information about the contemporaneous state of the economy in order to provide the reader with a useful tool that allows him or her to analyze current business conditions and make predictions about the future state of the economy. In this spirit, we find that the European Commission industrial confidence indicator (ICI) is useful in providing that information.

Keywords: business cycle; confidence indicators; markov switching; turning points; recession; tool to identify recessions in the euro area; Bengoechea; Pérez Quirós (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2004-10
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Related works:
Working Paper: A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro-area (2004)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:euf:ecopap:0215

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