Have cyclical movements in the unemployment rate become more persistent?

Andrew Figura
Additional contact information
Andrew Figura: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/andrew-figura.htm

No 2011-33, Finance and Economics Discussion Series from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: I examine whether the cyclical behavior of unemployment has changed over the post WWII period. Specifically, I test whether cyclical movements in unemployment have become more persistent. Finding that they have, indeed, become more persistent, I then take some initial steps in explaining why. I find that the increase in persistence has affected private nonfarm payroll employment as well as unemployment and that increased persistence appears to be widespread across industries. At the same time, increased persistence owes primarily to greater persistence in job finding rates and greater persistence in unemployment among permanent job losers. This combination suggests that the welfare loss from cyclical increases in unemployment is becoming increasingly concentrated among permanent job losers who become unemployed for extended durations during cyclical downturns.

Keywords: Unemployment; Labor market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-lab
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2011/201133/201133abs.html (text/html)
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2011/201133/201133pap.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2011-33

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Finance and Economics Discussion Series from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier ().