The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions

John Kennan and James Walker

No 9585, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: The paper develops a tractable econometric model of optimal migration, focusing on expected income as the main economic influence on migration. The model improves on previous work in two respects: it covers optimal sequences of location decisions (rather than a single once-for-all choice), and it allows for many alternative location choices. The model is estimated using panel data from the NLSY on white males with a high school education. Our main conclusion is that interstate migration decisions are influenced to a substantial extent by income prospects. The results suggest that the link between income and migration decisions is driven both by geographic differences in mean wages and by a tendency to move in search of a better locational match when the income realization in the current location is unfavorable.

JEL-codes: J1 J6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-geo and nep-ltv
Note: EFG LS
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (57)

Published as “The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions” (with James R. Walker), Econometrica 79 (1), January 2011, 211-251

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Related works:
Journal Article: The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions (2011)
Working Paper: The effect of expected income on individual migration decisions (2003)
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