Direct Evidence on Sticky Information from the Revision Behavior of Professional Forecasters

Karlyn Mitchell and Douglas Pearce

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: We provide direct evidence on the sticky information model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) by examining how frequently individual professional forecasters revise their forecasts. We draw interest rate and unemployment rate forecasts from the monthly Wall Street Journal surveys conducted between 2003 and 2013. Consistent with the sticky information model we find that forecasters frequently leave their forecasts unrevised but find evidence that revision frequency increases following larger changes in the information set. We also find revision frequencies became more sensitive to new information after the 2008 financial crisis but only weak evidence that frequent revisers forecast more accurately.

Keywords: Expectations; Sticky Information; Survey Forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-ger and nep-mac
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/66172/1/MPRA_paper_66172.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Direct Evidence on Sticky Information from the Revision Behavior of Professional Forecasters (2017)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:66172

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().