Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Evidence

Megumi Kubota

Discussion Papers from Department of Economics, University of York

Abstract: The real exchange rate (RER) misalignment is a key variable in academic and policy circles. Among policy circles, sustained RER overvaluations are observed by authorities for future exchange rate adjustments. Some countries, on the other hand, have pursued very active exchange rate policies in order to undervalue their currencies to foster growth through export promotion (e.g. China). Our goal is to assess whether these policies can sustain RER undervaluation. In this context, this paper complements and improves upon the existing literature by formulating a theoretical based model to compute equilibrium real exchange rate and its misalignment and to estimate and calculate RER misalignments. One of the novelties is to derive and solve for what we call intertemporal BOP equilibrium and equilibrium in the tradable and non-tradable goods market based on the current account dynamics and Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson (HBS) productivities. With our novelty of modeling RER misalignments we estimate fundamental RER equation using cointegration techniques for time series –i.e. Johansen's (1988,1991) multivariate analysis and the error correction model (ECM) by Bewley (1979) and Wickens and Breusch (1987)– and for heterogeneous panel data –i.e. the pooled mean group estimator (PMGE) by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (1999).

References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.york.ac.uk/media/economics/documents/discussionpapers/2009/0924.pdf Main text (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:yor:yorken:09/24

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Discussion Papers from Department of Economics, University of York Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Paul Hodgson ().