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The shape of the size distribution of an epidemic in a finite population

Math Biosci. 1994 Oct;123(2):167-81. doi: 10.1016/0025-5564(94)90010-8.

Abstract

Qualitative changes in the shape of the distribution of the final size of the susceptible-->infected-->removed (S-I-R) epidemic are used by Nåsell to define a threshold concept for the stochastic S-I-R epidemic. Numerical evaluations indicate that this threshold depends on the population size N according to the formula R0 approximately 1 + p/N1/3 for large N, where R0 is the basic reproduction ratio for the model. We derive an approximation of the final size distribution that supports this numerical result.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data*
  • Humans
  • Mathematics
  • Models, Biological
  • Population Density
  • Stochastic Processes