Following decades of systematic fauna survey and records by resident and visiting observers, the ... more Following decades of systematic fauna survey and records by resident and visiting observers, the composition of the bird fauna of Kakadu National Park is well known. However, the listing of threatened bird species found in Kakadu is fluid, and knowledge about the distribution, abundance, population trends, threats and management requirements of most of Kakadu’s threatened bird species is limited. Here, we provide an inventory of the currently listed threatened bird species occurring in Kakadu National Park. We provide a summary of the current status of these species in Kakadu National Park, and then indicate priorities for conservation management.
Context Invasive species are a major cause of biodiversity loss across much of the world, and a k... more Context Invasive species are a major cause of biodiversity loss across much of the world, and a key threat to Australia’s diverse reptile fauna. There has been no previous comprehensive analysis of the potential impact of the introduced European red fox, Vulpes vulpes, on Australian reptiles. Aims We seek to provide an inventory of all Australian reptile species known to be consumed by the fox, and identify characteristics of squamate species associated with such predation. We also compare these tallies and characteristics with reptile species known to be consumed by the domestic cat, Felis catus, to examine whether predation by these two introduced species is compounded (i.e. affecting much the same set of species) or complementary (affecting different groups of species). Methods We collated records of Australian reptiles consumed by foxes in Australia, with most records deriving from fox dietary studies (tallying >35 000 samples). We modelled presence or absence of fox predatio...
The diversity and abundance of native invertebrates is declining globally, which could have signi... more The diversity and abundance of native invertebrates is declining globally, which could have significant consequences for ecosystem functioning. Declines are likely to be at least as severe as those observed for vertebrates, although often are difficult to quantify due to a lack of historic baseline data and limited monitoring effort. The Lepidoptera are well studied in Australia compared with other invertebrates, so we know that some species are imperilled or declining. Despite this, few butterfly taxa are explicitly listed for protection by legislation. Here we aim to identify the butterfly taxa that would most benefit from listing by determining the Australian butterflies at most immediate risk of extinction. We also identify the research and management actions needed to retain them. For 26 taxa identified by experts and various conservation schedules, we used structured expert elicitation to estimate the probability of extinction within 20 years (i.e. by 2040) and to identify key...
More than a third of the world’s amphibian species are listed as Threatened or Extinct, with a re... more More than a third of the world’s amphibian species are listed as Threatened or Extinct, with a recent assessment identifying 45 Australian frogs (18.4% of the currently recognised species) as ‘Threatened’ based on IUCN criteria. We applied structured expert elicitation to 26 frogs assessed as Critically Endangered and Endangered to estimate their probability of extinction by 2040. We also investigated whether participant experience (measured as a self-assigned categorical score, i.e. ‘expert’ or ‘non-expert’) influenced the estimates. Collation and analysis of participant opinion indicated that eight species are at high risk (>50% chance) of becoming extinct by 2040, with the disease chytridiomycosis identified as the primary threat. A further five species are at moderate–high risk (30–50% chance), primarily due to climate change. Fourteen of the 26 frog species are endemic to Queensland, with many species restricted to small geographic ranges that are susceptible to stochastic e...
Australia hosts approximately 10% of the world’s reptile species, the largest number of any count... more Australia hosts approximately 10% of the world’s reptile species, the largest number of any country. Despite this and evidence of widespread decline, the first comprehensive assessment of the conservation status of Australian terrestrial squamates (snakes and lizards) was undertaken only recently. Here we apply structured expert elicitation to the 60 species assessed to be in the highest IUCN threat categories to estimate their probability of extinction by 2040. We also assessed the probability of successful reintroduction for two Extinct in the Wild (EW) Christmas Island species with trial reintroductions underway. Collation and analysis of expert opinion indicated that six species are at high risk (>50%) of becoming extinct within the next 20 years, and up to 11 species could be lost within this timeframe unless management improves. The consensus among experts was that neither of the EW species were likely to persist outside of small fenced areas without a significant increase ...
ContextCats are the definitive or primary host for pathogens that cause diseases in people and li... more ContextCats are the definitive or primary host for pathogens that cause diseases in people and livestock. These cat-dependent diseases would not occur in Australia if cats had not been introduced, and their ongoing persistence depends on contacts with cats. Toxoplasma gondii is a protozoan parasite that cycles between cats and any other warm-blooded animals. People infected by T. gondii may appear asymptomatic, or have a mild illness, or experience severe, potentially lethal symptoms; the parasite may also affect behaviour and mental health. T. gondii is also a major contributor to spontaneous abortion in sheep and goats. Two species of Sarcocystis, another genus of protozoan parasite, cycle through cats and sheep, causing macroscopic cysts to form in sheep tissues that reduce meat saleability. Toxocara cati, the cat roundworm, causes minor illnesses in humans and livestock, and the bacterium Bartonella henselae causes cat scratch disease, an infection that can be contracted by peop...
Globally, freshwater fishes are declining at an alarming rate. Despite much evidence of catastrop... more Globally, freshwater fishes are declining at an alarming rate. Despite much evidence of catastrophic declines, few Australian species are listed as threatened under national legislation. We aim to help redress this by identifying the Australian freshwater fishes that are in the most immediate risk of extinction. For 22 freshwater fishes (identified as highly threatened by experts), we used structured expert elicitation to estimate the probability of extinction in the next ~20 years, and to identify key threats and priority management needs. All but one of the 22 species are small (<150mm total length), 12 have been formally described only in the last decade, with seven awaiting description. Over 90% of these species were assessed to have a >50% probability of extinction in the next ~20 years. Collectively, the biggest factor contributing to the likelihood of extinction of the freshwater fishes considered is that they occur in small (distributions ≤44km2), geographically isolat...
Aichi Target 12 of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) aims to ‘prevent extinctions of k... more Aichi Target 12 of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) aims to ‘prevent extinctions of known threatened species’. To measure its success, we used a Delphi expert elicitation method to estimate the number of bird and mammal species whose extinctions were prevented by conservation action in 1993 - 2020 (the lifetime of the CBD) and 2010 - 2020 (the timing of Aichi Target 12). We found that conservation prevented 21–32 bird and 7–16 mammal extinctions since 1993, and 9–18 bird and 2–7 mammal extinctions since 2010. Many remain highly threatened, and may still become extinct in the near future. Nonetheless, given that ten bird and five mammal species did go extinct (or are strongly suspected to) since 1993, extinction rates would have been 2.9–4.2 times greater without conservation action. While policy commitments have fostered significant conservation achievements, future biodiversity action needs to be scaled up to avert additional extinctions.
Strategies for mitigating climate change through altered land management practices can provide wi... more Strategies for mitigating climate change through altered land management practices can provide win–win outcomes for the environment and the economy. Emissions trading for greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement in Australia's remote, fire‐prone, and sparsely populated tropical savannas provides a financial incentive for intensive fire management that aims to reduce fire frequency, severity, and extent, and it supports important social, economic, and land management opportunities for remote communities, conservation agencies, and pastoralists. These programs now cover >20% of Australia's 1.9 million km2 tropical savanna biome, encompassing areas of globally significant biodiversity value. A common assertion is that by reducing the frequency, severity, and extent of fires for GHG abatement, these programs provide biodiversity co‐benefits. However, such biodiversity benefits have been assumed rather than demonstrated. Much better accounting of how biodiversity is responding to change...
In the last 30 years, islands and fenced exclosures free of introduced predators (collectively, h... more In the last 30 years, islands and fenced exclosures free of introduced predators (collectively, havens) have become an increasingly used option for protecting Australian mammals imperiled by predation by introduced cats (Felis catus) and foxes (Vulpes vulpes). However, Australia's network of havens is not expanding in a manner that maximizes representation of all predator‐susceptible taxa, because of continued emphasis on already‐represented taxa. Future additions to the haven network will improve representation of mammals most efficiently if they fill gaps in under‐represented predator‐susceptible taxa, particularly rodents. A systematic approach to expansion could protect at least one population of every Australian predator‐susceptible threatened mammal taxon by the addition of 12 new havens to the current network. Were the current haven network to be doubled in number in a systematic manner, it could protect three populations of every Australian predator‐susceptible threatene...
A critical step towards reducing the incidence of extinction is to identify and rank the species ... more A critical step towards reducing the incidence of extinction is to identify and rank the species at highest risk, while implementing protective measures to reduce the risk of extinction to such species. Existing global processes provide a graded categorisation of extinction risk. Here we seek to extend and complement those processes to focus more narrowly on the likelihood of extinction of the most imperilled Australian birds and mammals. We considered an extension of existing IUCN and NatureServe criteria, and used expert elicitation to rank the extinction risk to the most imperilled species, assuming current management. On the basis of these assessments, and using two additional approaches, we estimated the number of extinctions likely to occur in the next 20 years. The estimates of extinction risk derived from our tighter IUCN categorisations, NatureServe assessments and expert elicitation were poorly correlated, with little agreement among methods for which species were most in ...
Although evidence‐based approaches have become commonplace for determining the success of conserv... more Although evidence‐based approaches have become commonplace for determining the success of conservation measures for the management of threatened taxa, there are no standard metrics for assessing progress in research or management. We developed 5 metrics to meet this need for threatened taxa and to quantify the need for further action and effective alleviation of threats. These metrics (research need, research achievement, management need, management achievement, and percent threat reduction) can be aggregated to examine trends for an individual taxon or for threats across multiple taxa. We tested the utility of these metrics by applying them to Australian threatened birds, which appears to be the first time that progress in research and management of threats has been assessed for all threatened taxa in a faunal group at a continental scale. Some research has been conducted on nearly three‐quarters of known threats to taxa, and there is a clear understanding of how to alleviate nearl...
The false killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens) is regarded as Data Deficient globally and in Austr... more The false killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens) is regarded as Data Deficient globally and in Australia. In most parts of its range, there is little information on its social behaviour, dispersal or ecology. The present study is the first assessment of its movement patterns in Australian waters, on the basis of satellite tracking of four individuals, in the Arafura and Timor Seas from late March to early July 2014. When initially tagged, the four individuals occurred in a single group; they then showed generally similar movement patterns and regularly re-associated. Total distance travelled by tagged individuals ranged from 5161km (over a 54-day period) to 7577km (104 days). Distance from land varied from 100m to 188km (median distance 24km). Individual minimum convex polygons covered an area of 72368 to 86252km2, with a total overlap of 64038km2. Water depths varied from 0.3 to 118m (median 36m). In total, 15% of records were in waters shallower than 10m, and 26% of records were with...
In response to Australia’s current extinction crisis, substantial research efforts have been targ... more In response to Australia’s current extinction crisis, substantial research efforts have been targeted towards some of the most imperilled species. One such species is the northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus), a marsupial predator that has recently suffered substantial declines in range and is now listed as Endangered. We conducted a systematic review of all literature relevant to the conservation and ecology of northern quolls. We reviewed 143 studies, including research articles, government and industry reports, theses, and books, and quantified research effort in terms of topic, location, and publication period. We then summarised research relevant to northern quoll taxonomy, genetics, distribution, habitat associations, diet, reproduction, movement, threats, management, and Indigenous knowledge. Research effort was higher between 2011 and 2020 than the previous four decades combined. Northern quolls in the Northern Territory were the most studied, followed by the Pilbara, the Kim...
As with many islands, Christmas Island in the Indian Ocean has suffered severe biodiversity loss.... more As with many islands, Christmas Island in the Indian Ocean has suffered severe biodiversity loss. Its terrestrial lizard fauna comprised five native species, of which four were endemic. These were abundant until at least the late 1970s, but four species declined rapidly thereafter and were last reported in the wild between 2009 and 2013. In response to the decline, a captive breeding programme was established in August 2009. This attempt came too late for the Christmas Island forest skink Emoia nativitatis, whose last known individual died in captivity in 2014, and for the non-endemic coastal skink Emoia atrocostata. However, two captive populations are now established for Lister's gecko Lepidodactylus listeri and the blue-tailed skink Cryptoblepharus egeriae. The conservation future for these two species is challenging: reintroduction will not be possible until the main threats are identified and controlled.
Following decades of systematic fauna survey and records by resident and visiting observers, the ... more Following decades of systematic fauna survey and records by resident and visiting observers, the composition of the bird fauna of Kakadu National Park is well known. However, the listing of threatened bird species found in Kakadu is fluid, and knowledge about the distribution, abundance, population trends, threats and management requirements of most of Kakadu’s threatened bird species is limited. Here, we provide an inventory of the currently listed threatened bird species occurring in Kakadu National Park. We provide a summary of the current status of these species in Kakadu National Park, and then indicate priorities for conservation management.
Context Invasive species are a major cause of biodiversity loss across much of the world, and a k... more Context Invasive species are a major cause of biodiversity loss across much of the world, and a key threat to Australia’s diverse reptile fauna. There has been no previous comprehensive analysis of the potential impact of the introduced European red fox, Vulpes vulpes, on Australian reptiles. Aims We seek to provide an inventory of all Australian reptile species known to be consumed by the fox, and identify characteristics of squamate species associated with such predation. We also compare these tallies and characteristics with reptile species known to be consumed by the domestic cat, Felis catus, to examine whether predation by these two introduced species is compounded (i.e. affecting much the same set of species) or complementary (affecting different groups of species). Methods We collated records of Australian reptiles consumed by foxes in Australia, with most records deriving from fox dietary studies (tallying >35 000 samples). We modelled presence or absence of fox predatio...
The diversity and abundance of native invertebrates is declining globally, which could have signi... more The diversity and abundance of native invertebrates is declining globally, which could have significant consequences for ecosystem functioning. Declines are likely to be at least as severe as those observed for vertebrates, although often are difficult to quantify due to a lack of historic baseline data and limited monitoring effort. The Lepidoptera are well studied in Australia compared with other invertebrates, so we know that some species are imperilled or declining. Despite this, few butterfly taxa are explicitly listed for protection by legislation. Here we aim to identify the butterfly taxa that would most benefit from listing by determining the Australian butterflies at most immediate risk of extinction. We also identify the research and management actions needed to retain them. For 26 taxa identified by experts and various conservation schedules, we used structured expert elicitation to estimate the probability of extinction within 20 years (i.e. by 2040) and to identify key...
More than a third of the world’s amphibian species are listed as Threatened or Extinct, with a re... more More than a third of the world’s amphibian species are listed as Threatened or Extinct, with a recent assessment identifying 45 Australian frogs (18.4% of the currently recognised species) as ‘Threatened’ based on IUCN criteria. We applied structured expert elicitation to 26 frogs assessed as Critically Endangered and Endangered to estimate their probability of extinction by 2040. We also investigated whether participant experience (measured as a self-assigned categorical score, i.e. ‘expert’ or ‘non-expert’) influenced the estimates. Collation and analysis of participant opinion indicated that eight species are at high risk (>50% chance) of becoming extinct by 2040, with the disease chytridiomycosis identified as the primary threat. A further five species are at moderate–high risk (30–50% chance), primarily due to climate change. Fourteen of the 26 frog species are endemic to Queensland, with many species restricted to small geographic ranges that are susceptible to stochastic e...
Australia hosts approximately 10% of the world’s reptile species, the largest number of any count... more Australia hosts approximately 10% of the world’s reptile species, the largest number of any country. Despite this and evidence of widespread decline, the first comprehensive assessment of the conservation status of Australian terrestrial squamates (snakes and lizards) was undertaken only recently. Here we apply structured expert elicitation to the 60 species assessed to be in the highest IUCN threat categories to estimate their probability of extinction by 2040. We also assessed the probability of successful reintroduction for two Extinct in the Wild (EW) Christmas Island species with trial reintroductions underway. Collation and analysis of expert opinion indicated that six species are at high risk (>50%) of becoming extinct within the next 20 years, and up to 11 species could be lost within this timeframe unless management improves. The consensus among experts was that neither of the EW species were likely to persist outside of small fenced areas without a significant increase ...
ContextCats are the definitive or primary host for pathogens that cause diseases in people and li... more ContextCats are the definitive or primary host for pathogens that cause diseases in people and livestock. These cat-dependent diseases would not occur in Australia if cats had not been introduced, and their ongoing persistence depends on contacts with cats. Toxoplasma gondii is a protozoan parasite that cycles between cats and any other warm-blooded animals. People infected by T. gondii may appear asymptomatic, or have a mild illness, or experience severe, potentially lethal symptoms; the parasite may also affect behaviour and mental health. T. gondii is also a major contributor to spontaneous abortion in sheep and goats. Two species of Sarcocystis, another genus of protozoan parasite, cycle through cats and sheep, causing macroscopic cysts to form in sheep tissues that reduce meat saleability. Toxocara cati, the cat roundworm, causes minor illnesses in humans and livestock, and the bacterium Bartonella henselae causes cat scratch disease, an infection that can be contracted by peop...
Globally, freshwater fishes are declining at an alarming rate. Despite much evidence of catastrop... more Globally, freshwater fishes are declining at an alarming rate. Despite much evidence of catastrophic declines, few Australian species are listed as threatened under national legislation. We aim to help redress this by identifying the Australian freshwater fishes that are in the most immediate risk of extinction. For 22 freshwater fishes (identified as highly threatened by experts), we used structured expert elicitation to estimate the probability of extinction in the next ~20 years, and to identify key threats and priority management needs. All but one of the 22 species are small (<150mm total length), 12 have been formally described only in the last decade, with seven awaiting description. Over 90% of these species were assessed to have a >50% probability of extinction in the next ~20 years. Collectively, the biggest factor contributing to the likelihood of extinction of the freshwater fishes considered is that they occur in small (distributions ≤44km2), geographically isolat...
Aichi Target 12 of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) aims to ‘prevent extinctions of k... more Aichi Target 12 of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) aims to ‘prevent extinctions of known threatened species’. To measure its success, we used a Delphi expert elicitation method to estimate the number of bird and mammal species whose extinctions were prevented by conservation action in 1993 - 2020 (the lifetime of the CBD) and 2010 - 2020 (the timing of Aichi Target 12). We found that conservation prevented 21–32 bird and 7–16 mammal extinctions since 1993, and 9–18 bird and 2–7 mammal extinctions since 2010. Many remain highly threatened, and may still become extinct in the near future. Nonetheless, given that ten bird and five mammal species did go extinct (or are strongly suspected to) since 1993, extinction rates would have been 2.9–4.2 times greater without conservation action. While policy commitments have fostered significant conservation achievements, future biodiversity action needs to be scaled up to avert additional extinctions.
Strategies for mitigating climate change through altered land management practices can provide wi... more Strategies for mitigating climate change through altered land management practices can provide win–win outcomes for the environment and the economy. Emissions trading for greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement in Australia's remote, fire‐prone, and sparsely populated tropical savannas provides a financial incentive for intensive fire management that aims to reduce fire frequency, severity, and extent, and it supports important social, economic, and land management opportunities for remote communities, conservation agencies, and pastoralists. These programs now cover >20% of Australia's 1.9 million km2 tropical savanna biome, encompassing areas of globally significant biodiversity value. A common assertion is that by reducing the frequency, severity, and extent of fires for GHG abatement, these programs provide biodiversity co‐benefits. However, such biodiversity benefits have been assumed rather than demonstrated. Much better accounting of how biodiversity is responding to change...
In the last 30 years, islands and fenced exclosures free of introduced predators (collectively, h... more In the last 30 years, islands and fenced exclosures free of introduced predators (collectively, havens) have become an increasingly used option for protecting Australian mammals imperiled by predation by introduced cats (Felis catus) and foxes (Vulpes vulpes). However, Australia's network of havens is not expanding in a manner that maximizes representation of all predator‐susceptible taxa, because of continued emphasis on already‐represented taxa. Future additions to the haven network will improve representation of mammals most efficiently if they fill gaps in under‐represented predator‐susceptible taxa, particularly rodents. A systematic approach to expansion could protect at least one population of every Australian predator‐susceptible threatened mammal taxon by the addition of 12 new havens to the current network. Were the current haven network to be doubled in number in a systematic manner, it could protect three populations of every Australian predator‐susceptible threatene...
A critical step towards reducing the incidence of extinction is to identify and rank the species ... more A critical step towards reducing the incidence of extinction is to identify and rank the species at highest risk, while implementing protective measures to reduce the risk of extinction to such species. Existing global processes provide a graded categorisation of extinction risk. Here we seek to extend and complement those processes to focus more narrowly on the likelihood of extinction of the most imperilled Australian birds and mammals. We considered an extension of existing IUCN and NatureServe criteria, and used expert elicitation to rank the extinction risk to the most imperilled species, assuming current management. On the basis of these assessments, and using two additional approaches, we estimated the number of extinctions likely to occur in the next 20 years. The estimates of extinction risk derived from our tighter IUCN categorisations, NatureServe assessments and expert elicitation were poorly correlated, with little agreement among methods for which species were most in ...
Although evidence‐based approaches have become commonplace for determining the success of conserv... more Although evidence‐based approaches have become commonplace for determining the success of conservation measures for the management of threatened taxa, there are no standard metrics for assessing progress in research or management. We developed 5 metrics to meet this need for threatened taxa and to quantify the need for further action and effective alleviation of threats. These metrics (research need, research achievement, management need, management achievement, and percent threat reduction) can be aggregated to examine trends for an individual taxon or for threats across multiple taxa. We tested the utility of these metrics by applying them to Australian threatened birds, which appears to be the first time that progress in research and management of threats has been assessed for all threatened taxa in a faunal group at a continental scale. Some research has been conducted on nearly three‐quarters of known threats to taxa, and there is a clear understanding of how to alleviate nearl...
The false killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens) is regarded as Data Deficient globally and in Austr... more The false killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens) is regarded as Data Deficient globally and in Australia. In most parts of its range, there is little information on its social behaviour, dispersal or ecology. The present study is the first assessment of its movement patterns in Australian waters, on the basis of satellite tracking of four individuals, in the Arafura and Timor Seas from late March to early July 2014. When initially tagged, the four individuals occurred in a single group; they then showed generally similar movement patterns and regularly re-associated. Total distance travelled by tagged individuals ranged from 5161km (over a 54-day period) to 7577km (104 days). Distance from land varied from 100m to 188km (median distance 24km). Individual minimum convex polygons covered an area of 72368 to 86252km2, with a total overlap of 64038km2. Water depths varied from 0.3 to 118m (median 36m). In total, 15% of records were in waters shallower than 10m, and 26% of records were with...
In response to Australia’s current extinction crisis, substantial research efforts have been targ... more In response to Australia’s current extinction crisis, substantial research efforts have been targeted towards some of the most imperilled species. One such species is the northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus), a marsupial predator that has recently suffered substantial declines in range and is now listed as Endangered. We conducted a systematic review of all literature relevant to the conservation and ecology of northern quolls. We reviewed 143 studies, including research articles, government and industry reports, theses, and books, and quantified research effort in terms of topic, location, and publication period. We then summarised research relevant to northern quoll taxonomy, genetics, distribution, habitat associations, diet, reproduction, movement, threats, management, and Indigenous knowledge. Research effort was higher between 2011 and 2020 than the previous four decades combined. Northern quolls in the Northern Territory were the most studied, followed by the Pilbara, the Kim...
As with many islands, Christmas Island in the Indian Ocean has suffered severe biodiversity loss.... more As with many islands, Christmas Island in the Indian Ocean has suffered severe biodiversity loss. Its terrestrial lizard fauna comprised five native species, of which four were endemic. These were abundant until at least the late 1970s, but four species declined rapidly thereafter and were last reported in the wild between 2009 and 2013. In response to the decline, a captive breeding programme was established in August 2009. This attempt came too late for the Christmas Island forest skink Emoia nativitatis, whose last known individual died in captivity in 2014, and for the non-endemic coastal skink Emoia atrocostata. However, two captive populations are now established for Lister's gecko Lepidodactylus listeri and the blue-tailed skink Cryptoblepharus egeriae. The conservation future for these two species is challenging: reintroduction will not be possible until the main threats are identified and controlled.
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Papers by John Woinarski