This study investigates the effects oil price shocks on three measures of oil exporters’ and oil ... more This study investigates the effects oil price shocks on three measures of oil exporters’ and oil importers’ external balances: total trade balance, oil trade balance and non-oil trade balance. We employ three second generation heterogeneous linear panel models as well as one recently developed non-linear panel estimation technique which allows for cross sectional dependence. With respect to 28 major oil exporting countries, while an increase in oil prices leads to an improved real oil trade balance, it is detrimental to the non-oil and total trade balance situations. This finding might be due to the expenditure effect arising from increases in proceeds from oil exports. A decrease in oil prices is found to be beneficial for both total and oil balances in these oil exporting countries. For 40 major oil importers, they seem to be increasingly shielded from positive oil shocks over the 1970s and 1980s; however, it is oil price declines that they need to worry about. A decline in oil pr...
This paper investigates how different commodity prices are affected by unconventional monetary po... more This paper investigates how different commodity prices are affected by unconventional monetary policies (UMP) implemented by the Federal Reserve of the United States as a response to the Global Financial Crisis. We analyze impulse responses using local projections proposed by Jorda (2005) and follow Swanson (2017)’s identification strategy for UMP shocks. We show that forward guidance (FG) and large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) shocks lead to distinct responses from commodity prices. We find that asset-like commodities, such as gold and silver, respond to these UMP shocks most aggressively. While an easing FG shock leads to increases in their prices, an easing LSAP shock has the opposite effect. This differential response suggests that these asset-like commodities are being used as inflation and exchange rate hedges. In contrast, production-like and agricultural commodities respond to UMP shocks in the same way as conventional monetary policy shocks. Consistent with previous literatu...
This article examines the short- and long-run causal relationship between energy consumption and ... more This article examines the short- and long-run causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP of six emerging economies of Asia. Based on cointegration and vector error correction modeling the empirical results show that there exists unidirectional short- and long-run causality running from energy consumption to GDP for China, uni-directional short-run causality from output to energy consumption for India, whilst bi-directional short-run causality for Thailand. Neutrality between energy consumption and income is found for Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines. Both the generalized variance decompositions and impulse response functions confirm the direction of causality. These findings have important policy implications for the countries concerned. The results suggest that while India may directly initiate energy conservation measures, China and Thailand may opt for a balanced combination of alternative polices.
Abstract We examine the effect of air pollution clean-up measures on reducing pregnancy risks in ... more Abstract We examine the effect of air pollution clean-up measures on reducing pregnancy risks in China. Using policy-driven variations across provinces and over time, we undertake a natural experiment that examines the effect of mandated Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD) installation in Chinese power plants. Matching our novel measure of FGD intensity with province-level administrative data spanning the period 2002–2011, our estimates indicate that desulfurizing a power plant with a capacity of 10,000 MW decreases high-risk pregnancy for at least 177 mothers in every 10,000 cases. On the potential mechanism, we find that this desulfurization intervention decreases both prenatal and postnatal medical examinations because there is a decrease in the incidence of gynecological diseases. Our results are robust to a wide array of randomization tests, restrictive specifications, omitted variable biases, and to falsification and placebo tests. From a policy perspective, we estimate that the adoption of FGD in China saves approximately 83,405 mothers from high-risk pregnancy in a five-year period.
We examine the effect of inter-provincial migration on air and water pollution for a panel of Chi... more We examine the effect of inter-provincial migration on air and water pollution for a panel of Chinese provinces over the period 2000-2013. To do so, we employ linear and non-linear panel data models in a Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) framework. Our findings from both the linear and non-linear models suggest that inter-provincial migration has contributed to air and water pollution. Results from the second-generation linear panel data models suggest that for every additional 10,000 inter-provincial migrants, chemical oxygen demand (COD) increases 0.33-0.58 per cent and sulphur dioxide (SO2) increases 0.15-0.33 per cent. Our results from the non-linear threshold panel model are that for every additional 10,000 inter-provincial migrants, COD increases 0.2-0.5 per cent and SO2 increases 0.10-0.20 per cent. These estimates mean that over the period 2000-2013 average interprovincial migration was responsible for 7-12.4 per cent of waste...
This paper empirically investigates the impact of oil price volatility on six major emerging econ... more This paper empirically investigates the impact of oil price volatility on six major emerging economies of Asia, namely China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. Following Andersen et al. (2004) quarterly oil price volatility is measured by using the realized volatility (RV). For China, according to the VAR analysis along with the Granger causality test, generalized impulse response functions and generalized variance decompositions, it can be inferred that oil price volatility impacts output growth in the short run. For India oil price volatility impacts both GDP growth and inflation. In Philippines oil price volatility impacts inflation. For the Indonesian economy oil price volatility impacts both GDP growth and inflation before and after the Asian financial crisis. In Malaysia oil price volatility impacts GDP growth, while there is a very little feedback from the opposite side. For Thailand, oil price volatility impacts output growth for the whole studied period....
Total Quality Management (TQM) is a management philosophy, which focuses on customer driven quali... more Total Quality Management (TQM) is a management philosophy, which focuses on customer driven quality and affects all spheres of an organization. Implementation of TQM in an organization requires everybody's participation. Today, in a competitive global environment to become a successful marketer, it is necessary to accept total quality philosophy, because a marketer's ultimate goal is to increase profitability through customer satisfaction, which can be achieved by adopting TQM. This paper discusses a descriptive model of TQM implementation for reaching quality mark and increasing profitability. A mathematical model for validating the cost of quality improvement by the organization also discussed here.
We examine the effect of inter-provincial migration on air and water pollution for a panel of Chi... more We examine the effect of inter-provincial migration on air and water pollution for a panel of Chinese provinces over the period 2000-2013. To do so, we employ linear and non-linear panel data models in a Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) framework. Our findings from both the linear and non-linear models suggest that inter-provincial migration has contributed to air and water pollution. Results from the second-generation linear panel data models suggest that for every additional 10,000 inter-provincial migrants, chemical oxygen demand (COD) increases 0.33-0.58 per cent and sulphur dioxide (SO2) increases 0.15-0.33 per cent. Our results from the non-linear threshold panel model are that for every additional 10,000 inter-provincial migrants, COD increases 0.2-0.5 per cent and SO2 increases 0.10-0.20 per cent. These estimates mean that over the period 2000-2013 average interprovincial migration was responsible for 7-12.4 per cent of waste...
This article examines the short- and long-run causal relationship between energy consumption and ... more This article examines the short- and long-run causal relationship between energy consumption and output in six non-OECD Asian developing countries. Standard time series econometrics is used for this purpose. Based on cointegration and vector error correction modeling, the empirical result shows a bi-directional causality between energy consumption and income in Malaysia, while a unidirectional causality from output to energy consumption in China and Thailand and energy consumption to output in India and Pakistan. Bangladesh remains as an energy neutral economy confirming the fact that it is one of the lowest energy consuming countries in Asia. Both the generalized variance decompositions and the impulse response functions confirm the direction of causality in these countries. These findings have important policy implications for concerned countries. Countries like China and Thailand may contribute to the fight against global warming directly implementing energy conservation measures...
Coal comprises 70 per cent of China’s primary energy source and 80 per cent of China's electr... more Coal comprises 70 per cent of China’s primary energy source and 80 per cent of China's electricity generation. This study investigates the long-run relationship between coal consumption-economic growth nexus considering both supply and demand side models in a multivariate framework over the period of 1978 and 2010. Our innovation in this paper is to include a coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator into the economic growth model ; and trade exposure in coal demand. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach, we find improvement in coal-to-efficiency indicator causes almost 35 per cent increase in real GDP in the long-run. The Toda-Yamamoto approach of causality test indicates unidirectional causality from coal consumption to economic growth; feedback effect both for coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator to economic growth and openness to coal consumption. For robustness check, using the generalised forecast error variance decomposition method we forecast th...
Since the Great Depression, governments have routinely undertaken substantial expansionary measur... more Since the Great Depression, governments have routinely undertaken substantial expansionary measures to stabilize economies after major recessions. While one of the expected outcomes of such recovery efforts is to put housing and equity markets back on track, the persistence and magnitude of impacts vary across asset classes and type of recessions, i.e. normal vs. financial vs. disasters. We study such responses from house and equity prices by projecting their paths in the aftermath of financial crises, normal recessions and non-financial disasters since the 1870s in 17 western economies. With the help of three newly available historical datasets spanning for 143 years and by employing local projection techniques, we find that financial recessions have the most detrimental effect, causing substantial decreases in house prices, stock prices and construction costs. Post-crisis stock price declines are observed through the whole sample period, whereas both house prices and construction ...
Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to climate-induced disasters. Poor and vulnerable people living i... more Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to climate-induced disasters. Poor and vulnerable people living in the country’s many disaster-prone areas are systematically excluded from access to the formal banking systems. Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) provide the opportunity of financial inclusion for these people. This paper reveals that MFIs provide credit, savings and insurance products that contribute to livelihood development, though further effort could be made to align these products with climate change adaptation needs. Some of the MFIs have separate disaster management funds, which they draw on to assist their member households when disaster strikes. Some of them offer disaster-related non-financial services, like post-disaster relief and rehabilitation programmes. This paper argues however, that there is potential for MFIs to develop their products and services further to more effectively promote climate change adaptation, such as further involvement in disaster mitigation and prep...
This study investigates the effects oil price shocks on three measures of oil exporters’ and oil ... more This study investigates the effects oil price shocks on three measures of oil exporters’ and oil importers’ external balances: total trade balance, oil trade balance and non-oil trade balance. We employ three second generation heterogeneous linear panel models as well as one recently developed non-linear panel estimation technique which allows for cross sectional dependence. With respect to 28 major oil exporting countries, while an increase in oil prices leads to an improved real oil trade balance, it is detrimental to the non-oil and total trade balance situations. This finding might be due to the expenditure effect arising from increases in proceeds from oil exports. A decrease in oil prices is found to be beneficial for both total and oil balances in these oil exporting countries. For 40 major oil importers, they seem to be increasingly shielded from positive oil shocks over the 1970s and 1980s; however, it is oil price declines that they need to worry about. A decline in oil pr...
This paper investigates how different commodity prices are affected by unconventional monetary po... more This paper investigates how different commodity prices are affected by unconventional monetary policies (UMP) implemented by the Federal Reserve of the United States as a response to the Global Financial Crisis. We analyze impulse responses using local projections proposed by Jorda (2005) and follow Swanson (2017)’s identification strategy for UMP shocks. We show that forward guidance (FG) and large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) shocks lead to distinct responses from commodity prices. We find that asset-like commodities, such as gold and silver, respond to these UMP shocks most aggressively. While an easing FG shock leads to increases in their prices, an easing LSAP shock has the opposite effect. This differential response suggests that these asset-like commodities are being used as inflation and exchange rate hedges. In contrast, production-like and agricultural commodities respond to UMP shocks in the same way as conventional monetary policy shocks. Consistent with previous literatu...
This article examines the short- and long-run causal relationship between energy consumption and ... more This article examines the short- and long-run causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP of six emerging economies of Asia. Based on cointegration and vector error correction modeling the empirical results show that there exists unidirectional short- and long-run causality running from energy consumption to GDP for China, uni-directional short-run causality from output to energy consumption for India, whilst bi-directional short-run causality for Thailand. Neutrality between energy consumption and income is found for Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines. Both the generalized variance decompositions and impulse response functions confirm the direction of causality. These findings have important policy implications for the countries concerned. The results suggest that while India may directly initiate energy conservation measures, China and Thailand may opt for a balanced combination of alternative polices.
Abstract We examine the effect of air pollution clean-up measures on reducing pregnancy risks in ... more Abstract We examine the effect of air pollution clean-up measures on reducing pregnancy risks in China. Using policy-driven variations across provinces and over time, we undertake a natural experiment that examines the effect of mandated Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD) installation in Chinese power plants. Matching our novel measure of FGD intensity with province-level administrative data spanning the period 2002–2011, our estimates indicate that desulfurizing a power plant with a capacity of 10,000 MW decreases high-risk pregnancy for at least 177 mothers in every 10,000 cases. On the potential mechanism, we find that this desulfurization intervention decreases both prenatal and postnatal medical examinations because there is a decrease in the incidence of gynecological diseases. Our results are robust to a wide array of randomization tests, restrictive specifications, omitted variable biases, and to falsification and placebo tests. From a policy perspective, we estimate that the adoption of FGD in China saves approximately 83,405 mothers from high-risk pregnancy in a five-year period.
We examine the effect of inter-provincial migration on air and water pollution for a panel of Chi... more We examine the effect of inter-provincial migration on air and water pollution for a panel of Chinese provinces over the period 2000-2013. To do so, we employ linear and non-linear panel data models in a Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) framework. Our findings from both the linear and non-linear models suggest that inter-provincial migration has contributed to air and water pollution. Results from the second-generation linear panel data models suggest that for every additional 10,000 inter-provincial migrants, chemical oxygen demand (COD) increases 0.33-0.58 per cent and sulphur dioxide (SO2) increases 0.15-0.33 per cent. Our results from the non-linear threshold panel model are that for every additional 10,000 inter-provincial migrants, COD increases 0.2-0.5 per cent and SO2 increases 0.10-0.20 per cent. These estimates mean that over the period 2000-2013 average interprovincial migration was responsible for 7-12.4 per cent of waste...
This paper empirically investigates the impact of oil price volatility on six major emerging econ... more This paper empirically investigates the impact of oil price volatility on six major emerging economies of Asia, namely China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. Following Andersen et al. (2004) quarterly oil price volatility is measured by using the realized volatility (RV). For China, according to the VAR analysis along with the Granger causality test, generalized impulse response functions and generalized variance decompositions, it can be inferred that oil price volatility impacts output growth in the short run. For India oil price volatility impacts both GDP growth and inflation. In Philippines oil price volatility impacts inflation. For the Indonesian economy oil price volatility impacts both GDP growth and inflation before and after the Asian financial crisis. In Malaysia oil price volatility impacts GDP growth, while there is a very little feedback from the opposite side. For Thailand, oil price volatility impacts output growth for the whole studied period....
Total Quality Management (TQM) is a management philosophy, which focuses on customer driven quali... more Total Quality Management (TQM) is a management philosophy, which focuses on customer driven quality and affects all spheres of an organization. Implementation of TQM in an organization requires everybody's participation. Today, in a competitive global environment to become a successful marketer, it is necessary to accept total quality philosophy, because a marketer's ultimate goal is to increase profitability through customer satisfaction, which can be achieved by adopting TQM. This paper discusses a descriptive model of TQM implementation for reaching quality mark and increasing profitability. A mathematical model for validating the cost of quality improvement by the organization also discussed here.
We examine the effect of inter-provincial migration on air and water pollution for a panel of Chi... more We examine the effect of inter-provincial migration on air and water pollution for a panel of Chinese provinces over the period 2000-2013. To do so, we employ linear and non-linear panel data models in a Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) framework. Our findings from both the linear and non-linear models suggest that inter-provincial migration has contributed to air and water pollution. Results from the second-generation linear panel data models suggest that for every additional 10,000 inter-provincial migrants, chemical oxygen demand (COD) increases 0.33-0.58 per cent and sulphur dioxide (SO2) increases 0.15-0.33 per cent. Our results from the non-linear threshold panel model are that for every additional 10,000 inter-provincial migrants, COD increases 0.2-0.5 per cent and SO2 increases 0.10-0.20 per cent. These estimates mean that over the period 2000-2013 average interprovincial migration was responsible for 7-12.4 per cent of waste...
This article examines the short- and long-run causal relationship between energy consumption and ... more This article examines the short- and long-run causal relationship between energy consumption and output in six non-OECD Asian developing countries. Standard time series econometrics is used for this purpose. Based on cointegration and vector error correction modeling, the empirical result shows a bi-directional causality between energy consumption and income in Malaysia, while a unidirectional causality from output to energy consumption in China and Thailand and energy consumption to output in India and Pakistan. Bangladesh remains as an energy neutral economy confirming the fact that it is one of the lowest energy consuming countries in Asia. Both the generalized variance decompositions and the impulse response functions confirm the direction of causality in these countries. These findings have important policy implications for concerned countries. Countries like China and Thailand may contribute to the fight against global warming directly implementing energy conservation measures...
Coal comprises 70 per cent of China’s primary energy source and 80 per cent of China's electr... more Coal comprises 70 per cent of China’s primary energy source and 80 per cent of China's electricity generation. This study investigates the long-run relationship between coal consumption-economic growth nexus considering both supply and demand side models in a multivariate framework over the period of 1978 and 2010. Our innovation in this paper is to include a coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator into the economic growth model ; and trade exposure in coal demand. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach, we find improvement in coal-to-efficiency indicator causes almost 35 per cent increase in real GDP in the long-run. The Toda-Yamamoto approach of causality test indicates unidirectional causality from coal consumption to economic growth; feedback effect both for coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator to economic growth and openness to coal consumption. For robustness check, using the generalised forecast error variance decomposition method we forecast th...
Since the Great Depression, governments have routinely undertaken substantial expansionary measur... more Since the Great Depression, governments have routinely undertaken substantial expansionary measures to stabilize economies after major recessions. While one of the expected outcomes of such recovery efforts is to put housing and equity markets back on track, the persistence and magnitude of impacts vary across asset classes and type of recessions, i.e. normal vs. financial vs. disasters. We study such responses from house and equity prices by projecting their paths in the aftermath of financial crises, normal recessions and non-financial disasters since the 1870s in 17 western economies. With the help of three newly available historical datasets spanning for 143 years and by employing local projection techniques, we find that financial recessions have the most detrimental effect, causing substantial decreases in house prices, stock prices and construction costs. Post-crisis stock price declines are observed through the whole sample period, whereas both house prices and construction ...
Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to climate-induced disasters. Poor and vulnerable people living i... more Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to climate-induced disasters. Poor and vulnerable people living in the country’s many disaster-prone areas are systematically excluded from access to the formal banking systems. Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) provide the opportunity of financial inclusion for these people. This paper reveals that MFIs provide credit, savings and insurance products that contribute to livelihood development, though further effort could be made to align these products with climate change adaptation needs. Some of the MFIs have separate disaster management funds, which they draw on to assist their member households when disaster strikes. Some of them offer disaster-related non-financial services, like post-disaster relief and rehabilitation programmes. This paper argues however, that there is potential for MFIs to develop their products and services further to more effectively promote climate change adaptation, such as further involvement in disaster mitigation and prep...
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Papers by Shuddhasattwa Rafiq