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- ArticleJuly 1991
A non-numeric approach to multi-criteria/multi-expert aggregation based on approximate reasoning
UAI'91: Proceedings of the Seventh conference on Uncertainty in Artificial IntelligencePages 433–437We describe a technique that can be used for the fusion of multiple sources of information as well as for the evaluation and selection of alternatives under multi-criteria. Three important properties contribute to the uniqueness of the technique ...
- ArticleJuly 1991
An efficient implementation of belief function propagation
UAI'91: Proceedings of the Seventh conference on Uncertainty in Artificial IntelligencePages 425–432The local computation technique (Shafer et al. 1987, Shafer and Shenoy 1988, Shenoy and Shafer 1986) is used for propagating belief functions in so-called a Markov Tree. In this paper, we describe an efficient implementation of belief function ...
- ArticleJuly 1991
Compatibility of quantitative and qualitative representations of belief
UAI'91: Proceedings of the Seventh conference on Uncertainty in Artificial IntelligencePages 418–424The compatibility of quantitative and qualitative representations of beliefs was studied extensively in probability theory. It is only recently that this important topic is considered in the context of belief functions. In this paper, the compatibility ...
- ArticleJuly 1991
A Monte-Carlo algorithm for Dempster-Shafer belief
UAI'91: Proceedings of the Seventh conference on Uncertainty in Artificial IntelligencePages 414–417A very computationally-efficient Monte-Carlo algorithm for the calculation of Dempster-Shafer belief is described. If Bel is the combination using Dempster's Rule of belief functions Bel1,..., Belm, then, for subset b of the frame Θ, Bel(b) can he ...
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- ArticleJuly 1991
From relational databases to belief networks
UAI'91: Proceedings of the Seventh conference on Uncertainty in Artificial IntelligencePages 406–413The relationship between belief networks and relational databases is examined. Based on this analysis, a method to construct belief networks automatically from statistical relational data is proposed. A comparison between our method and other methods ...
- ArticleJuly 1991
A method for integrating utility analysis into an expert system for design evaluation under uncertainty
UAI'91: Proceedings of the Seventh conference on Uncertainty in Artificial IntelligencePages 398–405In mechanical design, there is often unavoidable uncertainty in estimates of design performance. Evaluation of design alternatives requires consideration of the impact of this uncertainty. Expert heuristics embody assumptions regarding the designer's ...
- ArticleJuly 1991
Detecting causal relations in the presence of unmeasured variables
UAI'91: Proceedings of the Seventh conference on Uncertainty in Artificial IntelligencePages 392–397The presence of latent variables can greatly complicate inferences about causal relations between measured variables from statistical data. In many cases, the presence of latent variables makes it impossible to determine for two measured variables A and ...
- ArticleJuly 1991
Compressed constraints in probabilistic logic and their revision
UAI'91: Proceedings of the Seventh conference on Uncertainty in Artificial IntelligencePages 386–391In probabilistic logic entailments, even moderate size problems can yield linear constraint systems with so many variables that exact methods are impractical. This difficulty can be remedied in many cases of interest by introducing a three-valued logic (...
- ArticleJuly 1991
About updating
UAI'91: Proceedings of the Seventh conference on Uncertainty in Artificial IntelligencePages 378–385Survey of several forms of updating, with a practical illustrative example.
We study several updating (conditioning) schemes that emerge naturally from a common scenarion to provide some insights into their meaning. Updating is a subtle operation and ...
- ArticleJuly 1991
Algorithms for irrelevance-based partial MAPs
UAI'91: Proceedings of the Seventh conference on Uncertainty in Artificial IntelligencePages 370–377Irrelevance-based partial MAPs are useful constructs for domain-independent explanation using belief networks. We look at two definitions for such partial MAPs, and prove important properties that are useful in designing algorithms for computing them ...
- ArticleJuly 1991
A fusion algorithm for solving Bayesian decision problems
UAI'91: Proceedings of the Seventh conference on Uncertainty in Artificial IntelligencePages 361–369This paper proposes a new method for solving Bayesian decision problems. The method consists of representing a Bayesian decision problem as a valuation-based system and applying a fusion algorithm for solving it. The fusion algorithm is a hybrid of ...
- ArticleJuly 1991
A graph-based inference method for conditional independence
UAI'91: Proceedings of the Seventh conference on Uncertainty in Artificial IntelligencePages 353–360The graphoid axioms for conditional independence, originally described by Dawid [1979], are fundamental to probabilistic reasoning [Pearl, 1988]. Such axioms provide a mechanism for manipulating conditional independence assertions without resorting to ...
- ArticleJuly 1991
Completing knowledge by competing hierarchies
UAI'91: Proceedings of the Seventh conference on Uncertainty in Artificial IntelligencePages 348–352A control strategy for expert systems is presented which is based on Shafer's Belief theory and the combination rule of Dempster. In contrast to well known strategies it is not sequentially and hypotheses-driven, but parallel and self-organizing, ...
- ArticleJuly 1991
On the generation of alternative explanations with implications for belief revision
UAI'91: Proceedings of the Seventh conference on Uncertainty in Artificial IntelligencePages 339–347In general, the best explanation for a given observation makes no promises on how good it is with respect to other alternative explanations. A major deficiency of message-passing schemes for belief revision in Bayesian networks is their inability to ...
- ArticleJuly 1991
Structuring bodies of evidence
UAI'91: Proceedings of the Seventh conference on Uncertainty in Artificial IntelligencePages 332–338In this article we present two ways of structuring bodies of evidence, which allow us to reduce the complexity of the operations usually performed in the framework of evidence theory. The first structure just partitions the focal elements in a body of ...
- ArticleJuly 1991
Pulcinella: a general tool for propagating uncertainty in valuation networks
UAI'91: Proceedings of the Seventh conference on Uncertainty in Artificial IntelligencePages 323–331We present PULCinella and its use in comparing uncertainty theories. PULCinella is a general tool for Propagating Uncertainty based on the Local Computation technique of Shafer and Shenoy. It may be specialized to different uncertainty theories: at the ...
- ArticleJuly 1991
Truth as utility: a conceptual synthesis
UAI'91: Proceedings of the Seventh conference on Uncertainty in Artificial IntelligencePages 316–322This paper introduces conceptual relations that synthesize utilitarian and logical concepts, extending the logics of preference of Rescher.
We define first, in the context of a possible worlds model, constraint-dependent measures that quantify the ...
- ArticleJuly 1991
Handling uncertainty during plan recognition in task-oriented consultation systems
UAI'91: Proceedings of the Seventh conference on Uncertainty in Artificial IntelligencePages 308–315During interactions with human consultants, people are used to providing partial and/or inaccurate information, and still be understood and assisted. We attempt to emulate this capability of human consultants; in computer consultation systems. In this ...
- ArticleJuly 1991
Deliberation and its role in the formation of intentions
UAI'91: Proceedings of the Seventh conference on Uncertainty in Artificial IntelligencePages 300–307Deliberation plays an important role in the design of rational agents embedded in the real-world. In particular, deliberation leads to the formation of intentions, i.e., plans of action that the agent is committed to achieving. In this paper, we present ...