Modeling Schools’ Capacity for Lasting Change: A Causal Loop and Simulation-Based Approach

Abstract

Improving the K-12 education system in the USA is one of the wicked problems of the twenty-first century. For all the discussion around STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics), “Every Student Succeeds,” and other countless initiatives and interventions, it seems reasonable to ask—why are K-12 school systems still starved for lasting, meaningful change? While education researchers and evaluators have certainly brought rigor to understanding intervention impacts and outcomes on a student and teacher level, these studies often do not directly account for the social science-based context that surrounds interventions. In this paper, we present an approach for modeling school settings using causal loop diagrams and accompanying stochastic simulations to better understand schools’ capacity for intervention. We present initial evidence to support the claim that the modeling process and the resultant models can aid in the design of quality, school-compatible interventions by improving understanding of the ecosystems in which educational interventions operate. This work attempts to shine light on the relationship between a K-12 school environment and an intervention, paying respect to the fact that the two cannot be cleanly decoupled. We also present a framework that can be adopted by other intervention teams in the future to better understand the settings in which they are operating.