Abstract
Using computationally efficient wavelet methods, we study two nonlinear models of financial returns {r t }: linear ARCH (LARCH) and fractionally integrated GARCH (FIGARCH). We estimate the tail index α and the long memory parameter d of the squared returns \({X_t= r_t^2}\) of LARCH, and of the powers X t = |r t |p of FIGARCH. We find that the X t have infinite variance and long memory, and show how the estimates of α and d depend on the model parameters. These relationships are determined empirically, as the setting is quite complex, and no suitable theory has been developed so far. In particular, we provide empirical relationships between the estimates \({\hat d}\) and the difference parameters in LARCH and FIGARCH. Our computational work uncovers tail and memory properties of LARCH and FIGARCH for practically relevant parameter ranges, and provides some guidance on modeling returns on speculative assets including FX rates, stocks and market indices.
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Research supported by NSF grants DMS-0413653 and DMS-0804165.
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Jach, A., Kokoszka, P. Empirical wavelet analysis of tail and memory properties of LARCH and FIGARCH models. Comput Stat 25, 163–182 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00180-009-0168-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00180-009-0168-6