Location via proxy:   [ UP ]  
[Report a bug]   [Manage cookies]                
Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Cascade impact of hurricane movement, storm tidal surge, sea level rise and precipitation variability on flood assessment in a coastal urban watershed

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

For comprehensive flood assessment, complex systems, both natural and man-made, must be accounted for due to prevailing cascade effects from the upper atmosphere to the subsurface with hydrological and hydraulic interactions in between. This study aims to demonstrate such cascade effects via an integrated nearshore oceanic and coastal watershed model. Such an integrated modeling system consists of a coupled hydrodynamic circulation and wave driven model [the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) models], which can combine storm surge, astronomic tide levels and wave interaction, as well as an integrated hydrological/hydraulic model, namely the Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing (ICPR) model for coastal urban watershed simulation. In order to explore the worst scenario of coastal flooding impacts on a low-lying coastal watershed, the Cross Bayou Watershed within the Tampa Bay area of Florida was chosen for a multi-scale simulation analysis. To assess hurricane-induced storm tide, precipitation variability, and sea level rise collectively this multi-scale simulation analysis combines ADCIRC/SWAN and ICPR integratively. Findings indicate that such consideration of complex interactions at the coastal ocean, land surface, and sub-surface levels can provide useful flood assessments which are sensitive to slight changes in natural hazard characteristics such as storm intensity, radius of maximum winds, storm track, and landfall location.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
EUR 32.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or Ebook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1

(©Google, map data ©2016 Google)

Fig. 2

(©Google, map data ©2016 Google)

Fig. 3

(©Google, map data ©2016 Google)

Fig. 4
Fig. 5

(©Google, map data ©2016 Google)

Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15
Fig. 16

(©Google, map data ©2016 Google)

Fig. 17

(©Google, map data ©2016 Google)

Fig. 18

(©Google, map data ©2016 Google)

Fig. 19

(©Google, map data ©2016 Google)

Fig. 20

(©Google, map data ©2016 Google)

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aquaveo LLC (2016) Surface-water modeling system, version 12.1. Reference manual & tutorials, Provo, UT

  • Bedient PB, Hoblit BC, Gladwell DC, Vieux BE (2000) NexRAD radar for flood prediction in Houston. J Hydrol Eng 5(3):269–277

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blake E, Kimberlain T, Berg R, Cangialosi J, Beven J II (2013) Tropical cyclone report: Hurricane Sandy. National Hurricane Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Miami

    Google Scholar 

  • Booij N, Ris RC, Holthuijsen LH (1999) A third-generation wave model for coastal regions, Part 1: model description and validation. J Geophys Res Oceans 104(C4):7649e7666. doi:10.1029/98JC02622

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brunner P, Simmons CT (2012) HydroGeoSphere: a fully integrated, physically based hydrological model. Groundwater 50(2):170–176

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Canuti P, Casagli N, Catani F, Falorni G (2002) Modeling of the Guagua Pichincha Volcano (Ecuador) Lahars. Phys Chem Earth 27(36):1587–1599

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cheng H-P, Cheng J.-R. C., Hunter RM, Lin H-C (2010) Demonstration of a coupled watershed-nearshore model. ERDC TN-SWWRP-10-XX. US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg. https://swwrp.usace.army.mil/. Assessed July 2016

  • Condon AJ, Sheng YP (2012) Evaluation of coastal inundation hazard for present and future climates. Nat Hazards 62:345–373

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deltares Systems (2014) http://www.deltaressystems.com/hydro/product/108282/sobek-suite. Accessed Jan 2016

  • Dietrich JC, Tanaka S, Westerink JJ, Dawson CN, Luettich RA Jr, Zijlema M, Holthuijsen LH, Smith JM, Westerink LG, Westerlink HJ (2012) Performance of the unstructured-mesh, SWAN + ADCIRC model in computing hurricane waves and surge. J Sci Comput 52:468–497. doi:10.1007/s10915-011-9555-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Downer CW, Ogden FL (2004) GSSHA: a model for simulating diverse streamflow generating processes. J Hydrol Eng 9(3):161–174

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feuer SE, Landsea CW, Woolcock L, Berkeley J (2004) The reanalysis of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones from the 1920’s: a re-examination of three catastrophic hurricanes that impacted Florida. Preprints of the 26th conference on hurricanes and tropical meteorology. American Meteorological Society, Miami Beach

    Google Scholar 

  • Fleming JG, Fulcher CW, Luettich RA, Estrade BD, Allen GD, Winer HS (2007) A real time storm surge forecasting system using ADCIRC. In: Estuarine and coastal modeling: proceedings of the 10th international conference. American Society of Civil Engineers, Newport, RI, 5–7 Nov 2007, pp 893–912

  • Garratt JR (1977) Review of drag coefficients over oceans and continents. Mon Weather Rev 105:915–929

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hervouet JM (2007) Hydrodynamics of free surface flows modelling with the finite element method. Wiley. doi:10.1002/9780470319628

    Google Scholar 

  • Holland GJ (1980) An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes. Mon Weather Rev 108(8):1212–1218

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang Y, Weisberg RH, Zheng LY (2010) Coupling of surge and waves for an Ivan-like hurricane impacting the Tampa Bay, Florida region. J Geophys Res. doi:10.1029/2009JC006090

    Google Scholar 

  • Hübl J, Steinwendtner H (2001) Two-dimensional simulation of two viscous debris flows in Austria. Phys Chem Earth 26(9):639–644

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2014) Summary for policymakers. In: Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ, Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B, Kissel ES, Levy AN, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea PR, White LL (eds.) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 1–32

    Google Scholar 

  • Knabb R, Rhome J, Brown D (2005) Hurricane Katrina: 23–30 August 2005. Tropical cyclone report

  • Knebl MR, Yang ZL, Hutchison K, Maidment DR (2005) Regional scale flood modeling using NEXRAD rainfall, GIS, and HEC-HMS/RAS: a case study for the San Antonio river basin Summer 2002 storm event. J Environ Manag 75:325–336

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Le Provost C, Lyard F, Molines JM, Genco ML, Rabilloud F (1998) A hydro-dynamic ocean tide model improved by assimilating a satellite altimeter-derived data set. J Geophys Res 103:5513–5529

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luettich RA, Westerink JJ, Scheffner NW (1992) ADCIRC: an advanced three-dimensional circulation model for shelves, coasts and estuaries. Report 1: theory and methodology of ADCIRC-2DDI and ADCIRC-3DL. Department of the US Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Luettich RA, Westerink JJ, Muccino JC (1994) Modeling tides in the Western North Atlantic using unstructured graded grids. Tellus 46(A):178–199

    Google Scholar 

  • National Weather Service (2015) 1921 Tarpon springs hurricane. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/?n=tampabay1921hurricane#. Accessed Sept 2015

  • NOAA (2015) Tropical cyclone climatology. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/. Accessed Sept 2015

  • NOAA (2016) Sea level trends. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html. Accessed Aug 2016

  • NOAA Office of Coast Survey (2017) Datums and transformations. https://www.nauticalcharts.noaa.gov/csdl/learn_datum.html. Accessed Aug 2015

  • Ris RC, Holthuijsen LH, Booij N (1999) A third-generation wave model for coastal regions, Part 2: Model description and validation. J Geophys Res Oceans 104(C4):7649e7666. doi:10.1029/1998JC900123

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Streamline Technologies, Inc. (2014) ICPR version 4 users manual. Winter Springs, FL

    Google Scholar 

  • Streamline Technologies Inc. (2015) An integrated surface water–groundwater model of the Cross Bayou watershed

  • Tampa Bay Climate Science Advisory Panel (2015) Recommended projection of sea level rise in the Tampa Bay region. http://www.tbrpc.org/council_members/councilagendas/2015/101215/8c.pdf. Accessed Jan 2016

  • Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council (2009) The Tampa Bay catastrophic plan: project phoenix. http://www.tbrpc.org/council_members/council agendas/2015/ 101215/8c.pdf. Accessed Jan 2016

  • Tang HS, Chien SI, Temimi M, Blain CA, Ke Q, Zhao L, Kraatz S (2013) Vulnerability of population and transportation infrastructure at the east bank of Delaware Bay due to coastal flooding in sea-level rise conditions. Nat Hazards 69:141. doi:10.1007/s11069-013-0691-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thompson CM, Frazier TG (2014) Deterministic and probabilistic flood modeling for contemporary and future coastal and inland precipitation inundation. Appl Geogr 50:1–14

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tootle GA, Mirti T, Piechota TC (2005) Magnitude and return period of 2004 hurricane rainfall in Florida. J Floodplain Manag 5(1):32–37

    Google Scholar 

  • UN-Habitat (2012) State of the world’s cities 2012/2013, prosperity of cities. Routledge, New York, NY

    Google Scholar 

  • UNISDR (2015) The human coast of weather related disasters 1995–2015. UNISDR, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) (1986) NRCS technical report 55

  • Weisberg RH, Zheng LY (2006) Hurricane storm surge simulations for Tampa Bay. Estuar Coasts 29(6A):899–913

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weisberg RH, Zheng LY (2008) Hurricane storm surge simulations comparing three-dimensional with two-dimensional formulations based on an Ivan-like storm over the Tampa Bay, Florida region. J Geophys Res. doi:10.1029/2008JC005115

    Google Scholar 

  • Westerink JJ, Luettich RA, Blain CA, Scheffner NW (1994) ADCIRC: an advanced three-dimensional circulation model for shelves, coasts, and estuaries. Report 2: user’s manual

  • Yeh GT, Huang GB, Zhang F, Cheng HP, Lin HC (2005) WASH123D: a numerical model of flow, thermal transport, and salinity, sediment, and water quality transport in WAterSHed systems of 1-D Stream-river Network, 2-D Overland Regime, and 3-D Subsurface Media. Technical Report Submitted to US EPA. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando

Download references

Acknowledgements

This study was supported under the Florida Sea Grant College Program, a partnership between the Florida Board of Education, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Florida’s citizens and governments, under Project R-CS-58 with assistance from the Pinellas County Government. We would like to acknowledge Streamline Technologies Inc. for their amazing work on generating a detailed model of the Cross Bayou Watershed which was instrumental in our studies. We would also like to acknowledge Dr. Joel Casey Dietrich at North Carolina State University regarding his work on the FigureGen software which has been an invaluable tool for visualizing ADCIRC + SWAN output.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering Department, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA

    Justin Joyce & Ni-Bin Chang

  2. Watershed Management Section, Pinellas County Government, Clearwater, FL, USA

    Rahim Harji

  3. Florida Sea Grant College Program, Miami, FL, USA

    Thomas Ruppert

  4. Streamline Technologies, Inc., Winter Springs, FL, USA

    Peter Singhofen

Authors
  1. Justin Joyce
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Ni-Bin Chang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Rahim Harji
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Thomas Ruppert
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Peter Singhofen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ni-Bin Chang.

Appendix: boundary condition test

Appendix: boundary condition test

See Fig. 21.

Fig. 21
figure 21

(©Google, map data ©2016 Google)

Integration between ADCIRC + SWAN and ICPR during Tropical Storm Barry in 2007: a ADCIRC + SWAN and ICPR Interface at Cross Bayou Canal inlets. b Comparison of incorporating flux and no-flux boundaries near Cross Bayou Canal southwestern inlet during tropical storm Barry in 2007. c Comparison of incorporating flux and no-flux boundaries near Cross Bayou Canal northeastern inlet during tropical storm Barry in 2007.

Full size image

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Joyce, J., Chang, NB., Harji, R. et al. Cascade impact of hurricane movement, storm tidal surge, sea level rise and precipitation variability on flood assessment in a coastal urban watershed. Clim Dyn 51, 383–409 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3930-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3930-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation