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Decreasing predictability as a precursor indicator for abrupt climate change

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Abstract

Abrupt climate change has an important impact on sustainable economic and social development, as well as ecosystem. However, it is very difficult to predict abrupt climate changes because the climate system is a complex and nonlinear system. In the present paper, the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) is proposed as a new early warning signal for an abrupt climate change. The performance of NLLE as an early warning signal is first verified by those simulated abrupt changes based on four folding models. That is, NLLE in all experiments showed an almost monotonous increasing trend as a dynamic system approached its tipping point. For a well-studied abrupt climate change in North Pacific in 1976/1977, it is also found that NLLE shows an almost monotonous increasing trend since 1970 which give up to 6 years warning before the abrupt climate change. The limit of the predictability for a nonlinear dynamic system can be quantitatively estimated by NLLE, and lager NLLE of the system means less predictability. Therefore, the decreasing predictability may be an effective precursor indicator for abrupt climate change.

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Acknowledgements

This work was jointly supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant nos. 41775092, 41975086, 41875120, and 42075051), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant nos. 20lgzd06), LASG Open Research Program.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System, Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519082, China

    Wenping He, Xiaoqiang Xie & Ying Mei

  2. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Sciences and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Wenping He

  3. LASG, Institute of Atmosphere Physics, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, 100029, China

    Wenping He

  4. Yangzhou Meteorological Office, Yangzhou, 225009, China

    Shiquan Wan

  5. National Climate Center, Beijing, 100081, China

    Shanshan Zhao

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  1. Wenping He
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  2. Xiaoqiang Xie
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  3. Ying Mei
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Correspondence to Wenping He.

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He, W., Xie, X., Mei, Y. et al. Decreasing predictability as a precursor indicator for abrupt climate change. Clim Dyn 56, 3899–3908 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05676-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05676-1

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