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Joint probability of precipitation and reservoir storage for drought estimation in the headwater basin of the Huaihe River, China

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Abstract

Reservoir storage plays an important role in water supply during the dry season when precipitation is insufficient. In a watershed where the streams are controlled by reservoirs, drought occurrences depend on not only precipitation variations but also reservoir regulation. In this study, the joint dependence structure of the reservoir storage and its relevant variables of precipitation and/or upstream outflow were analyzed for two cascade reservoirs in a headwater basin of the Huaihe River, China. Correlation analysis indicates that the reservoir storage in October (the end of the wet season) depends highly on the regional precipitation at time scales of several months, e.g., 7 months for the upstream and 9 months for the downstream. Additionally, the downstream storage is correlated with outflow from the upstream reservoir at the 5-month timescale significantly. For estimation of the joint probability of pairs of the storage and its relevant variables, univariate marginal distributions and bivariate copula were appropriately selected in terms of statistical tests. The bivariate return period of \(T(X < x,Y < y)\) and \(T(X \le x,Y \ge y)\) and the conditional probability of \(P(Y \ge y|X \le x)\) were estimated by using the selected Clayton copula. The results from contour lines of the bivariate return period demonstrate that the probability of drought occurrences affected by both reservoir storage and precipitation/outflow is smaller than that by either of the variables. Meanwhile, the concurrent drought probability between precipitation and reservoir storage in the upstream is higher than that in the downstream. The estimated conditional probability offers useful information on how much the regular storage could be remained under some specified drought levels of precipitation/upstream outflow. Therefore, the results are helpful for improving the operation strategies of the cascade reservoirs for the adaptive management of drought under different climate variations.

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Acknowledgments

The research is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51190090) and Jiangsu Planned Projects for Postdoctoral Research Funds (Grant No. 1501061B). We thank the editor and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments on the earlier manuscript, which lead to an improvement of the paper. The manuscript was edited by Jiayi Chen from University of California, Los Angeles.

Funding

This study was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51190090) and Jiangsu Planned Projects for Postdoctoral Research Funds (Grant No. 1501061B).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China

    Runrun Zhang, Xi Chen, Qinbo Cheng, Zhicai Zhang & Peng Shi

  2. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China

    Runrun Zhang, Xi Chen, Qinbo Cheng, Zhicai Zhang & Peng Shi

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  1. Runrun Zhang
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Correspondence to Xi Chen.

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Zhang, R., Chen, X., Cheng, Q. et al. Joint probability of precipitation and reservoir storage for drought estimation in the headwater basin of the Huaihe River, China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 30, 1641–1657 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1249-z

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