Abstract
Climate change in the last three decades could have major impacts on crop phenological development and subsequently on crop productivity. In this study, trends in winter wheat phenology are investigated in 36 agro-meteorological stations in the North China Plain (NCP) for the period 1981–2009. The study shows that the dates of sowing (BBCH 00), emergence (BBCH 10) and dormancy (start of dormancy) are delayed on the average by 1.5, 1.7 and 1.5 days/decade, respectively. On the contrary, the dates of greenup (end of dormancy), anthesis (BBCH 61) and maturity (BBCH 89) occur early on the average by 1.1, 2.7 and 1.4 days/decade, respectively. In most of the investigated stations, GP2 (dormancy to greenup), GP3 (greenup to anthesis) and GP0 (entire period from emergence to maturity) of winter wheat shortened during the period 1981–2009. Due, however, to early anthesis, grain-filling stage occurs at lower temperatures than before. This, along with shifts in cultivars, slightly prolongs GP4 (anthesis to maturity). Comparison of field-observed CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis)-wheat model-simulated dates of anthesis and maturity suggests that climate warming is the main driver of the changes in winter wheat phenology in the NCP. The findings of this study further suggest that climate change impact studies should be strengthened to adequately account for the complex responses and adaptations of field crops to this global phenomenon.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
(BBCH: Biologische Bundesanstalt, Bundessortenamt, Chemische Industrie (Federal Biological Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry, Federal Office of Plant Varieties, Chemical Industry). This code is recommended for phenological observations, Strauß et al. (1994).)
References
Ainsworth EA, Ort DR (2010) How do we improve crop production in a warming world? Plant Physiol 154:526–530
Angstrom A (1924) Solar and terrestrial radiation. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 50:121–126
Batts GR, Wheeler TR, Morison JL et al (1996) Developmental and tillering responses of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) crops to CO2 and temperature. J Agr Sci 127:23–35
Biscoe PV, Gallagher JN (1977) Weather, dry matter production and yield. In: Land JJ, Cutting CV (eds) Environmental Effects on Crop Physiology. Academic Press, London, pp 75–100
Challinor AJ, Ewert F, Arnold S et al (2009) Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation. J Exp Bot 60:2775–2789
Chmielewski FM, Müller A, Bruns E (2004) Climate changes and trends in phenology of fruit trees and field crops in Germany, 1961–2000. Agric For Meteorol 121:69–78
Craufurd PQ, Wheeler TR (2009) Climate change and the flowering time of annual crops. J Exp Bot 60:2529–2539
Ding YH, Ren GY, Shi GY et al (2006) National assessment report of climate change (I): climate change in China and its future trend. Adv Clim Chang Res 2:3–8 (in Chinese)
Diskin E, Proctor H, Jebb M, Sparks T, Donnelly A (2012) The phenology of Rubus fruticosus in Ireland: herbarium specimens provide evidence for the response of phenophases to temperature, with implications for climate warming. Int J Biometeorol. doi:10.1007/s004840120524z
Estrella N, Sparks TM, Menzel A (2007) Trends and temperature response in the phenology of crops in Germany. Glob Chang Biol 13:1737–1747
Gallagher JN, Biscoe PV, Hunter B (1976) Effects of drought on grain growth. Nature 264:541–542
Harrison PA, Porter JR, Downing TE (2000) Scaling-up the AFRCWHEAT2 model to assess phenological development for wheat in Europe. Agric For Meteorol 101:167–186
IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: synthesis report. Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Jamieson PD, Brooking IR, Semenov MA et al (1998) Making sense of wheat development: a critique of methodology. Field Crop Res 55:117–127
Jamieson PD, Brooking IR, Semenov MA et al (2007) Reconciling alternative models of phenological development in winter wheat. Field Crop Res 103:36–41
Jones JW, Hoogenboom G, Porter CH et al (2003) The DSSAT cropping system model. Field Crop Res 18:235–265
Kelman WM, Dove H (2009) Growth and phenology of winter wheat and oats in a dual-purpose management system. Crop Pasture Sci 60:921–932
Kirby EJM, Porter JR, Day W et al (1987) An analysis of primordium initiation in Avalon winter wheat crops with different sowing dates and at nine sites in England and Scotland. J Agr Sci 109:123–134
Lawlor DW, Mitchell RAC (2000) Crop ecosystem responses to climatic change: wheat. In: Reddy KR, Hodges HF (eds) Climate change and global crop productivity. CAB International, New York, pp 57–80
Liu SX, Mo XG, Lin ZH et al (2010) Crop yield responses to climate change in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China. Agric Water Manag 97:1195–1209
Ma SX, Churkina G, Trusilova K (2011) Investigating the impact of climate change on crop phenological events in Europe with a phenology model. Int J Biometeorol. doi:10.1007/s0048401104786
Menzel A (2000) Trends in phenological phases in Europe between 1951 and 1996. Int J Biometeorol 44:76–81
Menzel A, Fabian P (1999) Growing season extended in Europe. Nature 397:659
Menzel A, Sparks TH, Estrella N et al (2006) European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. Glob Chang Biol 12:1969–1976
Porter JR, Gawith M (1999) Temperatures and the growth and development of wheat: a review. Eur J Agron 10:23–36
Prescott JA (1940) Evaporation from a water surface in relation to solar radiation. T Roy Soc South Aust 64:114–118
Ritchie JT, Singh U, Godwin DC, Down WT (1998) Ceres growth, development and yield. In: Tsuji GY et al. (ed) Understanding options for agricultural production. Thornton, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, Netherlands, pp 79–98
Semenov MA (2009) Impacts of climate change on wheat in England and Wales. J R Soc Interface 6:343–350
Sofield I, Evans LT, Cook MG, Wardlaw IF (1977) Factors influencing the rate and duration of grain filling in wheat. Aust J Plant Physiol 4:785–797
Stacks WJ, Deryng D, Foley JA, Navin R (2010) Crop planting dates: an analysis of global patterns. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 19:607–620
Strauß R, Bleiholder H, van den Bomm T et al (1994) Einheitliche Codierung der phänologischen Entwiklungsstadien monound dikotyler Pflanzen. Erweiterte BBCH-Skala, Basel, p 27
Tao FL, Zhang Z (2012) Climate change, wheat productivity and water use in the North China Plain: A new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection. Agric For Meteorol. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.10.003
Tao FL, Yokozawa M, Xu YL, Hayashi Y, Zhang Z (2006) Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China 1981–2000. Agric For Meteorol 138:82–92
Tao FL, Yokozawa M, Zhang Z (2009) Modelling the impacts of weather and climate variability on crop productivity over a large area: a new process-based model development, optimization, and uncertainties analysis. Agric For Meteorol 149:831–850
Van Bussel LGJ, Ewert F, Leffelaar PA (2011) Effects of data aggregation on simulations of crop phenology. Agric Ecosyst Environ 142:75–84
Welch JR, Vincent JR, Auffhammer M et al (2010) Rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia exhibit large but opposing sensitivities to minimum and maximum temperatures. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107:14562–14567
White JW, Kimball BA, Wall GW et al (2011) Responses of time of anthesis and maturity to sowing dates and infrared warming in spring wheat. Field Crop Res 124:213–222
Yang S (1991) The ten agricultural regions of China. In: Xu G, Peel LJ (eds) The Agriculture of China. Oxford University Press, New York, pp 108–143
Yang JY, Mei XR, Liu Q et al (2011) Variation of winter wheat growth stages under climate changes in northern China. Chin J Plant Ecol 35:623–632 (in Chinese with English abstract)
Zheng JY, Ge QS, Hao ZX (2002) Impacts of climate warming on plants phenophases in China for the last 40 years. Chin Sci Bull 47:1826–1831
Acknowledgments
This study is supported by the National Science Foundation of China (Project Number 41071030 and 41001057), the science and technology strategic pilot projects of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Project Number XDA05090308) and the National Key Program for Developing Basic Science (Project Number 2010CB950902), China. Prof. Fulu Tao acknowledges the support of the ‘Hundred Talents’ Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. We are grateful to the anonymous reviewers for the insightful comments and suggestions on the manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Xiao, D., Tao, F., Liu, Y. et al. Observed changes in winter wheat phenology in the North China Plain for 1981–2009. Int J Biometeorol 57, 275–285 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0552-8
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0552-8