Abstract
Due to the large climatic and geographical differences, the occurrence time of maximum 1-day precipitation (RM1day) in different zones of the Huaihe River Bain (HRB) is different. In this study, in order to analyze the characteristics of precipitation encounters, we used the mixture of von Mises distributions and Copula functions to analyze the occurrence time distribution, interval time distribution, and joint encounter probability of RM1day in the HRB. We divide the upstream area of HRB into Zone1, the midstream area into Zone2-1 and Zone2-2, and the downstream area into Zone3 and Zone4. The results show that the RM1day of Zone1, Zone2-1, Zone2-2, Zone3, and Zone4 are mainly concentrated on July 13, July 9, July 6, July 19, and July 14, respectively. The probability appearing RM1day of Zone1 first to Zone2-1, Zone1 first to Zone2-2, Zone2-2 first to Zone2-1, and Zone4 first to Zone3 is 50.84%, 40.0%, 49.1%, and 42.4%, respectively. It shows that most of the RM1day occurred in the southern sites of the HRB earlier than the northern sites. Zone1 and Zone2-2, Zone1 and Zone2-1, Zone2-2 and Zone2-1, and Zone4 and Zone3 have the highest encounter probability of RM1day in July, with 0.34%, 0.56%, 0.37%, and 0.42%, respectively. Therefore, we need to pay more focus to the risk of extreme precipitation encounter in July. This study provides an important reference for flood control and anti-logging in the HRB.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The observed precipitation data can be downloaded from CMA (http://data.cma.cn/).
Code availability
Codes will be provided upon reasonable request by e-mail to the corresponding author (Xiaohong Chen).
References
Abbasian MS, Najafi MR, Abrishamchi A (2021) Increasing risk of meteorological drought in the Lake Urmia basin under climate change: introducing the precipitation–temperature deciles index. J Hydrol 592:125586. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125586
Akbari S, Reddy MJ (2020) Non-stationarity analysis of flood flows using copula based change-point detection method: application to case study of Godavari river basin. Sci Total Environ 718:134894. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134894
Bağçaci SÇ, Yucel I, Duzenli E, Yilmaz MT (2021) Intercomparison of the expected change in the temperature and the precipitation retrieved from CMIP6 and CMIP5 climate projections: a Mediterranean hot spot case, Turkey. Atmos Res 256:105576. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105576
Balistrocchi M, Moretti G, Orlandini S, Ranzi R (2019) Copula-based modeling of earthen levee breach due to overtopping. Adv Water Resour 134:103433. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.103433
Barlow M, Gutowski WJ, Gyakum JR, Katz RW, Lim Y-K, Schumacher RS, Wehner MF, Agel L, Bosilovich M, Collow A, Gershunov A, Grotjahn R, Leung R, Milrad S, Min S-K (2019) North American extreme precipitation events and related large-scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends. Climate Dynam 53:6835–6875. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04958-z
Chen F, Yuan H, Sun R, Yang C (2020) Streamflow simulations using error correction ensembles of satellite rainfall products over the Huaihe River Basin. J Hydrol 589:125179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125179
Cheng Y, Sang Y, Wang Z, Guo Y, Tang Y (2021) Effects of rainfall and underlying surface on flood recession—the upper Huaihe River Basin case. Int J Disaster Risk Sci 12:111–120. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-020-00310-w
Dong H, Huang S, Fang W, Leng G, Wang H, Ren K, Zhao J, Ma C (2021) Copula-based non-stationarity detection of the precipitation-temperature dependency structure dynamics and possible driving mechanism. Atmos Res 249:105280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105280
Fan ZW, Zhang M, Su YL (2014) Flood risk control of dams and dykes in middle reach of Huaihe River. Water Sci Eng 7:17–31. https://doi.org/10.3882/j.issn.1674-2370.2014.01.003
Filipova V, Lawrence D, Klempe H (2018) Effect of catchment properties and flood generation regime on copula selection for bivariate flood frequency analysis. Acta Geophys 66:791–806. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-018-0113-6
Fu G, Butler D (2014) Copula-based frequency analysis of overflow and flooding in urban drainage systems. J Hydrol 510:49–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.12.006
Hosseinzadehtalaei P, Tabari H, Willems P (2020) Climate change impact on short-duration extreme precipitation and intensity–duration–frequency curves over Europe. J Hydrol 590:125249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125249
Huang K, Chen L, Zhou J, Zhang J, Singh VP (2018) Flood hydrograph coincidence analysis for mainstream and its tributaries. J Hydrol 565:341–353. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.08.007
Islam MM, Afrin S, Tarek MH, Rahman MM (2021) Reliability and financial feasibility assessment of a community rainwater harvesting system considering precipitation variability due to climate change. J Environ Manage 289:112507. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112507
Jammalamadaka SR, Wainwright B, Jin Q (2021) Functional clustering on a circle using von mises mixtures. J Stat Theory Pract 15:38. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42519-021-00173-4
Jiang S, Liu R, Ren L, Wang M, Shi J, Zhong F, Duan Z (2020) Evaluation and hydrological application of CMADS reanalysis precipitation data against four satellite precipitation products in the upper Huaihe River Basin. China J Meteorol Res 34:1096–1113. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-020-0026-6
Jiang Y (2011) GIS stream network analysis for Huaihe River Basin of China. Procedia Environ Sci 10:1553–1558. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proenv.2011.09.247
Kai W, Deyi C, Zhaohui Y (2016) Flood control and management for the transitional Huaihe River in China. Procedia Eng 154:703–709. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016.07.572
Ko V, Hjort NL (2019) Model robust inference with two-stage maximum likelihood estimation for copulas. J Multivar Anal 171:362–381. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2019.01.004
Latif S, Mustafa F (2020a) Bivariate flood distribution analysis under parametric copula framework: a case study for Kelantan River basin in Malaysia. Acta Geophys 68:821–859. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-020-00435-y
Latif S, Mustafa F (2020b) Copula-based multivariate flood probability construction: a review. Arab J Geosci 13:132. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-5077-6
Latif S, Mustafa F (2021) Bivariate joint distribution analysis of the flood characteristics under semiparametric copula distribution framework for the Kelantan River basin in Malaysia. J Ocean Eng Sci 6:128–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joes.2020.06.003
Lazoglou G, Anagnostopoulou C (2019) Joint distribution of temperature and precipitation in the Mediterranean, using the Copula method. Theor Appl Climatol 135:1399–1411. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2447-z
Li H, Wang D, Singh VP, Wang Y, Wu J, Wu J, Liu J, Zou Y, He R, Zhang J (2019) Non-stationary frequency analysis of annual extreme rainfall volume and intensity using Archimedean copulas: a case study in eastern China. J Hydrol 571:114–131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.01.054
Liu J, Yang L, Jiang J, Yuan W, Duan Z (2021a) Mapping diurnal cycles of precipitation over China through clustering. J Hydrol 592:125804. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125804
Liu YR, Li YP, Yang X, Huang GH, Li YF (2021b) Development of an integrated multivariate trend-frequency analysis method: spatial-temporal characteristics of climate extremes under global warming for Central Asia. Environ Res 195:110859. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.110859
Lu Y, Xu H, Wang Y, Yang Y (2017) Evaluation of water environmental carrying capacity of city in Huaihe River Basin based on the AHP method: a case in Huai’an City. Water Resour Ind 18:71–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wri.2017.10.001
Makarov AA, Simonova GI (2017) Some properties of two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov test in the case of contamination of one of the samples. J Math Sci 220:718–723. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10958-016-3215-1
Mou S, Shi P, Qu S, Feng Y, Chen C, Dong F (2020) Projected regional responses of precipitation extremes and their joint probabilistic behaviors to climate change in the upper and middle reaches of Huaihe River Basin. China Atmos Res 240:104942. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104942
Ozga-Zielinski B, Ciupak M, Adamowski J, Khalil B, Malard J (2016) Snow-melt flood frequency analysis by means of copula based 2D probability distributions for the Narew River in Poland. J Hydrol Reg Stud 6:26–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2016.02.001
Qian L, Wang X, Wang Z (2020) Modeling the dependence pattern between two precipitation variables using a coupled copula. Environ Earth Sci 79:486. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-020-09233-7
Saad C, El Adlouni S, St-Hilaire A, Gachon P (2015) A nested multivariate copula approach to hydrometeorological simulations of spring floods: the case of the Richelieu River (Québec, Canada) record flood. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 29:275–294. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-014-0971-7
Shao Y, Wu J, Li M (2017) Study on quantile estimates of extreme precipitation and their spatiotemporal consistency adjustment over the Huaihe River Basin. Theor Appl Climatol 127:495–511. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1940-5
Su J, Lü H, Zhu Y, Cui Y, Wang X (2019) Evaluating the hydrological utility of latest IMERG products over the Upper Huaihe River Basin. China Atmos Res 225:17–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.03.025
Sun R, Yuan H, Yang Y (2018) Using multiple satellite-gauge merged precipitation products ensemble for hydrologic uncertainty analysis over the Huaihe River Basin. J Hydrol 566:406–420. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.09.024
Tuel A, Martius O (2021) A global perspective on the sub-seasonal clustering of precipitation extremes. Weather Clim Extrem 33:100348. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100348
Wang Z, Sun J, Wu J, Ning F, Chen W (2020) Attribution of persistent precipitation in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin during February 2019. Adv Atmos Sci 37:1389–1404. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-0107-6
Wu C, Zhou L, Zhang L, Jin J, Zhou Y (2019) Precondition cloud algorithm and Copula coupling model-based approach for drought hazard comprehensive assessment. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 38:101220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101220
Wu Y, Zhong P, Xu B, Zhu F, Fu J (2018) Evaluation of global climate model on performances of precipitation simulation and prediction in the Huaihe River Basin. Theor Appl Climatol 133:191–204. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2185-7
Wu Y, Zhong P, Xu B, Zhu F, Ma B (2017) Changing of flood risk due to climate and development in Huaihe River Basin. China Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31:935–948. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1262-2
Wu Y, Zhong P, Zhang Y, Xu B, Ma B, Yan K (2015) Integrated flood risk assessment and zonation method: a case study in Huaihe River Basin. China Nat Hazards 78:635–651. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1737-3
Xia J, She D, Zhang Y, Du H (2012) Spatio-temporal trend and statistical distribution of extreme precipitation events in Huaihe River Basin during 1960–2009. J Geogr Sci 22:195–208. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-012-0921-6
Xu X, Yu M, Lu J, Liu X (2016) Potential evapotranspiration estimation in the Upper Huaihe River Basin. China Procedia Eng 154:1018–1025. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016.07.591
Xu Y, Sun H, Ji X (2021) Spatial-temporal evolution and driving forces of rainfall erosivity in a climatic transitional zone: a case in Huaihe River Basin, eastern China. CATENA 198:104993. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2020.104993
Yang C-S, Li Q-F, Wen H, Cai T (2012) Simulation of soil and water loss in the upper Huaihe River Basin using the Xinanjiang Model. Procedia Eng 28:501–505. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2012.01.758
Yang M, Chen X, Cheng CS (2016) Hydrological impacts of precipitation extremes in the Huaihe River Basin. China Springerplus 5:1731. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40064-016-3429-1
Yu M, Li Q, Liu X, Zhang J (2016) Quantifying the effect on flood regime of land-use pattern changes via hydrological simulation in the upper Huaihe River Basin. China Nat Hazards 84:2279–2297. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2552-1
Zhang R, Chen X, Cheng Q, Zhang Z, Shi P (2016) Joint probability of precipitation and reservoir storage for drought estimation in the headwater basin of the Huaihe River. China Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 30:1641–1657. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1249-z
Zhang Y, Chen Q, Xia J (2020) Investigation on flood event variations at space and time scales in the Huaihe River Basin of China using flood behavior classification. J Geogr Sci 30:2053–2075. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-020-1827-3
Zhao J, Xu J, Xie X, Lu H (2016) Drought monitoring based on TIGGE and distributed hydrological model in Huaihe River Basin, China. Sci Total Environ 553:358–365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.115
Zheng W, Liu C, Xin Z, Wang Z (2008) Flood and waterlogging monitoring over Huaihe River Basin by AMSR-E data analysis. Chin Geogr Sci 18:262–267. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-008-0262-7
Zhijia L, Lili W, Hongjun B, Yu S, Zhongbo Y (2008) Rainfall-runoff simulation and flood forecasting for Huaihe basin. Water Sci Eng 1:24–35. https://doi.org/10.3882/j.issn.1674-2370.2008.03.003
Zhu L, Li Z, Chen J (2021) Evaluating and predicting energy efficiency using slow feature partial least squares method for large-scale chemical plants. Energy 230:120582. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.120582
Acknowledgements
We thank the CMA for providing the original precipitation data.
Funding
This study is financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2021YFC3001000) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. U1911204, 51861125203).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All authors contributed to the study’s conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by Haoyu Jin, Xiaohong Chen, Ruida Zhong, and Moyang Liu. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Haoyu Jin, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethics approval
Not applicable.
Consent to participate
Not applicable.
Consent for publication
Yes.
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Jin, H., Chen, X., Zhong, R. et al. Occurrence time distribution fitting and encounter probability analysis of extreme precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin. Theor Appl Climatol 154, 161–177 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04547-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04547-5