Abstract
Context
Climate change is not occurring over a homogeneous landscape and the quantity and quality of available land cover will likely affect the way species respond to climate change. The influence of land cover on species’ responses to climate change, however, is likely to differ depending on habitat type and composition.
Objectives
Our goal was to investigate responses of forest and grassland breeding birds to over 20 years of climate change across varying gradients of forest and grassland habitat. Specifically, we investigated whether (i) increasing amounts of available land cover modify responses of forest and grassland-dependent birds to changing climate and (ii) the effect of increasing land cover amount differs for forest and grassland birds.
Methods
We used Bayesian spatially-varying intercept models to evaluate species- and community-level responses of 30 forest and 10 grassland birds to climate change across varying amounts of their associated land cover types.
Results
Responses of forest birds to climate change were weak and constant across a gradient of forest cover. Conversely, grassland birds responded strongly to changing climatic conditions. Specifically, increasing temperatures led to higher probabilities of localized extinctions for grassland birds, and this effect was intensified in regions with low amounts of grassland cover.
Conclusions
Within the context of northeastern forests and grasslands, we conclude that forests serve as a possible buffer to the impacts of climate change on birds. Conversely, species occupying open, fragmented grassland areas might be particularly at risk of a changing climate due to the diminished buffering capacity of these ecosystems.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Andrle RF, Carroll JR (1988) The atlas of breeding birds in New York State. Cornell University Press, Ithaka
Askins RA, Chavez-Ramirez F, Dale BC, Haas CA, Herkert JR, Knopf FL, Vickery PD (2007) Conservation of grassland birds in North America: understanding ecological processes in different regions. Ornithol Monogr 64:1–46
Banerjee S, Carlin BP, Gelfand AE (2004) Hierarchical modeling and analysis for spatial data. Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton
Banerjee S, Gelfand AE, Finley AO, Sang H (2008) Gaussian predictive process models for large spatial datasets. J R Stat Soc B 70:825–848
Barnagaud J-Y, Barbaro L, Hampe A, Jiguet F, Archaux F (2013) Species’ thermal preferences affect forest bird communities along landscape and local scale habitat gradients. Ecography 36:1218–1226
Barnagaud JY, Barbaro L, Papaix J, Deconchat M, Brockerhoff EG (2014) Habitat filtering by landscape and local forest composition in native and exotic New Zealand birds. Ecology 95(1):78–87
Barnagaud J-Y, Devictor V, Jiguet F, Barbet-Massin M, Le Viol I, Archaux F (2012) Relating habitat and climatic niches in birds. PLoS One 7(3):e32819
Bennett JM, Nimmo DG, Clarke RH, Thomson JR, Cheers G, Horrocks GFB, Hall M, Radford JQ, Bennettm AF, Mac Nally R (2014) Resistance and resilience: can the abrupt end of extreme drought reverse avifaunal collapse? Divers Distrib 20(11):1321–1332
Beyer HL (2013) Geospatial modelling environment. http://www.spatialecology.com/gme/. Accessed Oct 2013.
Bonan GB (2008) Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests. Science 320(5882):1444–1449
Brennan LA, Kuvlesky WP (2005) North American grassland birds: an unfolding conservation crisis? J Wildl Manag 69:1–13
Chamberlain DE, Negro M, Caprio E, Rolando A (2013) Assessing the sensititvity of alpine birds to potential future changes in habitat and climate to inform management startegies. Biol Conserv 167:127–135
Chen J, Saunders SC, Crow TR, Naiman RJ, Brosofske KD, Mroz GD, Brookshire BL, Franklin JF (1999) Microclimate in forest ecosystem and landscape ecology variations in local climate can be used to monitor and compare the effects of different management regimes. BioScience 49(4):288–297
Clavero M, Villero D, Brotons L (2011) Climate change or land use dynamics: Do we know what climate change indicators indicate? PLoS One 6(4):e18581
Cox WA, Thompson FR III, Reidy J, Faaborg J (2013) Temperature can interact with landscape factors to affect songbird productivity. Glob Chang Biol 19:1064–1074
Cressie N, Wikle CK (2011) Statistics for spatio-temporal data. Wiley, Hoboken
Daly C, Gibson W (2002) Parameter-estimation on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM). The PRISM Climate Group, Oregon. ftp://ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/prism100. Accessed Jan 2011
De Frenne P, Rodríguez-Sánchez F, Coomes DA, Baeten L, Verstraeten G, Vellend M, Bernhardt-Römermann M, Brown CD, Brunet J, Cornelis J, Decocq GM, Dierschke H, Eriksson O, Gilliam FS, Hedl R, Heinken T, Hermy M, Hommel P, Jenkins MA, Kelly DL, Kirby KJ, Mitchell FJG, Naaf T, Newman M, Peterken G, Petrik P, Schultz J, Sonnier G, Calster HV, Waller DM, Walther G-R, White PS, Woods KD, Wulf M, Graae BJ, Verheyen K (2013) Microclimate moderates plant responses to macroclimate warming. Proc R Soc B Biol Sci 110(46):18561–18565
DeGraaf RM, Yamasaki M (2001) New England wildlife; habitat, natural history, and distribution. University Press of New England, Hanover
Dobrowski SZ, Swanson AK, Abatzoglou JT, Holden ZA, Safford HD, Schwartz MK, Gavin DG (2015) Forest structure and species traits mediate projected recruitment declines in western US tree species. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 24(8):917–927
Finley AO, Banerjee S, Gelfand AE (2015) spBayes for large univariate and multivariate point-referenced spatio-temporal data models. J Stat Softw 63(13):1–28
Fry JA, Coan MJ, Homer CG, Meyer DK, Wickham JD (2009) Completion of the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 1992–2001 land cover change retrofit product: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008–1379
Fuller RJ, Gregory RD, Gibbons DW, Marchant JH, Wilson JD, Baillie SR, Carter N (1995) Population declines and range contractions among lowland farmland birds in Britain. Conserv Biol 9(6):1425–1441
Gaublomme E, Eggermont H, Hendrickx F (2014) Local extinction processes rather than edge effects affect ground beetle assemblages from fragmented and urbanised old beech forests. Insect Conserv Divers 7:82–90
Geiger R, Aron RH, Todhunter P (2009) The climate near the ground. Rowman & Littlefield Publishing Group, Lanham
Gelman A, Carlin JB, Stern HS, Rubin DB (2004) Bayesian data analysis, 2nd edn. Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton
Gelman A, Rubin DB (1992) Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences. Stat Sci 7:457–511
Gibbons DW, Donald PF, Bauer HG, Fornasari L, Dawson IK (2007) Mapping avian distributions: the evolution of bird atlases. Bird Study 54:324–334
Griffen BD, Drake JM (2008) A review of extinction in experimental populations. J Anim Ecol 77:1274–1287
Hansen AJ, Neilson RP, Dale VH, Flather CH, Iverson LR, Currie DJ, Shafer S, Cook R, Bartlein PJ (2001) Global change in forests: responses of species, communities, and biomes. Bioscience 51(9):765–779
Helzer CJ, Jelinski DE (1999) The relative importance of patch area and perimeter-area ratio to grassland breeding birds. Ecol Appl 9(4):1448–1458
Homer C, Huang C, Yang L, Wylie B, Coan M (2004) Development of a 2001 national landcover database for the United States. Photogramm Eng Remote Sens 70(7):829–840
Jarzyna MA, Porter WF, Maurer BA, Zuckerberg B, Finley AO (2015) Landscape fragmentation affects responses of avian communities to climate change. Glob Chang Biol 21(8):2942–2953
Jarzyna MA, Zuckerberg B, Porter WF (2013) Climate change and wildlife. In: Krausman PR, Cain JW III (eds) Wildlife management and conservation: contemporary principles and practices. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, pp 262–278
Jeltsch F, Moloney KA, Schwager M, Körner K, Blaum N (2011) Consequences of correlations between habitat modifications and negative impact of climate change for regional species survival. Agric Ecosyst Environ 145:49–58
Jiguet F, Devictor V, Ottvall R, Van Turnhout C, Van der Jeugd H, Lindström A (2010) Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges. Proc R Soc B 277:3601–3608
Kampichler C, van Turnhout CAM, Devictor V, van der Jeugd HP (2012) Large-scale changes in community composition: determining land use and climate change signals. PLoS One 7(4):e35272
Kleijn D, Schekkerman H, Dimmers WJ, Van Kats RJM, Melman D, Teunissen WA (2010) Adverse effects of agricultural intensification and climate change on breeding habitat quality of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa l. limosa in the Netherlands. Ibis 152(3):475–486
Koleff P, Gaston KJ, Lennon JJ (2003) Measuring beta diversity for presence-absence data. J Anim Ecol 72:367–382
Lawler JJ (2009) Climate change adaptation strategies for resource management and conservation planning. Ann N Y Acad Sci 1162:79–98
Lawler JJ, Ackerly DD, Albano CM, Anderson MG, Dobrowski SZ, Gill JL, Heller NE, Pressey RL, Sanderson EW, Weiss SB (2015) The theory behind, and the challenges of conserving nature’s stage in a time of rapid change. Conserv Biol 29(3):618–629
Lawler JJ, Lewis DJ, Nelson E, Plantinga AJ, Polasky S, Withey JC, Helmers DP, Martinuzzi S, Pennington D, Radeloff VC (2014) Projected land-use change impacts on ecosystem services in the United States. PNAS 111(20):7492–7497
Martinuzzi S, Withey JC, Pidgeon AM, Plantinga AJ, McKerrow AJ, Williams S, Helmers DP, Radeloff VC (2015) Future land-use scenarios and the loss of wildlife habitats in the southeastern United States. Ecol Appl 25(1):160–171
McCarthy MA, Thompson CJ, Possingham HP (2005) Theory for designing nature reserves for single species. Am Nat 165(2):250–257
McDonald KW, McClure CJW, Rolek BW, Hill GE (2012) Diversity of birds in eastern North America shifts north with global warming. Ecol Evol 2:3052–3060
McGarigal K, Cushman SA, Ene E (2012). FRAGSTATS v4: spatial pattern analysis program for categorical and continuous maps. Computer software program produced by the authors at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. http://www.umass.edu/landeco/research/fragstats/fragstats.html. Accessed Oct 2013
McGowan M, Corwin K (2008) The Second Atlas of breeding birds in New York State. Cornell University Press, Ithaka
Moss R, Oswald J, Baines D (2001) Climate change and breeding success: decline of the capercaillie in Scotland. J Anim Ecol 70:47–61
Murcia C (1995) Edge effects in fragmented forests: implications for conservation. Trends Ecol Evol 10(2):58–62
Nuñez TA, Lawler JJ, McRae BH, Pierce DJ, Krosby MB, Kavanagh DM, Singleton PH, Tewksbury JJ (2013) Connectivity planning to address climate change. Conserv Biol 27(2):407–416
Opdam P, Wascher D (2004) Climate change meets habitat fragmentation: linking landscape and biogeographical scale levels in research and conservation. Biol Conserv 117:285–297
Pacifici AM, Foden WB, Visconti P, Watson JEM, Butchart SHM, Kovacs KM, Scheffers BR, Hole DG, Martin TG, Akcakaya HR, Corlett RT, Huntley B, Bickford D, Carr JA, Hoffman AA, Midgley GF, Pearce-Kelly P, Pearson RG, Williams SE, Willis SG, Young B, Rondinini C (2015) Assessing species vulnerability to climate change. Nat Clim Chang 5:215–224
Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37–42
Plummer M, Best N, Cowles K, Vines K (2006) CODA: convergence diagnosis and output analysis for MCMC. R News 6:7–11
Pomara LY, LeDee OE, Martin KJ, Zuckerberg B (2014) Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species. Glob Chang Biol 20:2087–2099
Reif J (2013) Long-term trends in bird populations: a review of patterns and potential drivers in North America and Europe. Acta Ornithol 48(1):1–16
Ribic CA, Koford RR, Herkert JR, Johnson DH, Niemuth ND, Naugle DE, Bakker KK, Sample DW, Renfrew RB (2009) Area sensitivity in North American grassland birds: patterns and processes. Auk 126(2):233–244
Runge CA, Tulloch A, Hammill E, Possingham HP, Fuller RA (2015) Geographic range size and extinction risk assessment in nomadic species. Conserv Biol 29(3):865–876
Spiegelhalter DJ, Best NG, Carlin BP, van der Linde A (2002) Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit (with discussion). J R Stat Soc B 64:583–639
Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, Bakkenes M, Beaumont LJ, Collingham YC, Erasmus BFN, Ferreire de Sququeira M, Grainger A, Hannah L, Hughes L, Huntley B, van Jaarsveld AS, Midgley GF, Miles L, Ortega-Huerta MA, Peterson AT, Phillips OL, Williams SE (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427:145–148
Tingley MW, Estes LD, Wilcove DS (2013) Climate change must not blow conservation off course. Nature 500:271–272
Travis JMJ (2003) Climate change and habitat destruction: a deadly anthropogenic cocktail. Proc R Soc B Biol Sci 270:467–473
Vickery PD, Dunwiddie PW (1997) Introduction. In: Vickery PD, Dunwiddie PW (eds) Grasslands of Northeastern North America. Massachusetts Audubon Society, Lincoln, pp 1–13
Vickery PD, Zuckerberg B, Jones AL, Shriver WG, Weik AP (2005) Influence of fire and other anthropogenic practices on grassland and shrubland birds in New England. In: Saab VA, Powell HDW (eds.) Fire and Avian Ecology in North America. Studies in Avian Biology, No 30, pp. 139–146
Villegas JC, Breshears DD, Zou CB, Royer PD (2010) Seasonally pulsed heterogeneity in microclimate: phenology and cover effects along deciduous grassland–forest continuum. Vadose Zone J 9(3):537–547
Virkkala R, Heikkinen RK, Lehikoinen A, Valkama J (2014) Matching trends between recent distributional changes of northern-boreal birds and species-climate model predictions. Biol Conserv 172:124–127
Von Arx G, Pannatier E, Thimonier A, Rebetez M (2013) Microclimate in forests with varying leaf area index and soil moisture: potential implications for seedling establishment in a changing climate. J Ecol 101:1201–1213
Walther GR, Post E, Convey P, Menzel A, Parmesan C, Beebee TJC, Fromentin JM, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Bairlein F (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416:389–395
Wickham JD, Wade TG, Ritters KH (2012) Empirical analysis of the influence of forest extent on annual and seasonal surface temperatures for the continental United States. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 22(5):620–629
Winter M, Johnson DH, Shaffer JA, Donovan TM, Svedarsky WD (2006) Patch size and landscape effects on density and nesting success of grassland birds. J Wildl Manag 70(1):157–172
Zuckerberg B, Porter WF, Corwin K (2009) The consistency and stability of abundance-occupancy relationships in large-scale population dynamics. J Anim Ecol 78:172–181
Acknowledgments
We would like to thank the volunteers who participated in both New York State Breeding Bird Atlases. We also thank Kimberley Corwin and Kevin McGowan for supplying atlas databases and Colin M. Beier, Daniel Bishop, and John Wiley for supplying climate data. The manuscript benefited from discussions with members of the Boone and Crockett Quantitative Wildlife Center at Michigan State University. We thank two anonymous reviewers for valuable comments on the earlier drafts of this manuscript. This study received financial support from NASA Grant NNXO9AK16G and Boone and Crockett Club. Andrew O. Finley was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) grants DMS-1513481, EF-1137309, EF-1241874, and EF-1253225.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Jarzyna, M.A., Zuckerberg, B., Finley, A.O. et al. Synergistic effects of climate and land cover: grassland birds are more vulnerable to climate change. Landscape Ecol 31, 2275–2290 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-016-0399-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-016-0399-1