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Landslide susceptibility assessment by Dempster–Shafer and Index of Entropy models, Sarkhoun basin, Southwestern Iran

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Abstract

Landslides are natural disasters often activated by interaction of different controlling environmental factors, especially in mountainous terrains. In this research, the landslide susceptibility map was developed for the Sarkhoun catchment using Index of Entropy (IoE) and Dempster–Shafer (DS) models. For this purpose, 344 landslides were mapped in GIS environment. 241 (70%) out of the landslides were selected for the modeling and the remaining (30%) were employed for validation of the models. Afterward, 10 landslide conditioning factor layers were prepared including land use, distance to drainage, slope gradient, altitude, lithology, distance to roads, distance to faults, slope aspect, Topography Wetness Index, and Stream Power Index. The relationship between the landslide conditioning factors and landslide inventory maps was determined using the IoE and DS models. In order to verify the models, the results were compared with validation landslide data not employed in training process of the models. Accordingly, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were applied, and Area Under the Curve (AUC) was calculated for the obtained susceptibility maps using the success (training data) and prediction (validation data) rate curves. The land use was found to be the most important factor in the study area. The AUC are 0.82, and 0.81 for success rates of the IoE, and DS models, respectively, while the prediction rates are 0.76 and 0.75. Therefore, the results of the IoE model are more accurate than the DS model. Furthermore, a satisfactory agreement is observed between the generated susceptibility maps by the models and true location of the landslides.

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Acknowledgements

This article is part of the results of a research project entitled “Evaluation of the best important landslide hazard zonation methods” by Isfahan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center under Grant Number 79-01-500003000-01. Authors would like to thank the soil conservation and watershed management department of Isfahan Center for Research of Agricultural Science and Natural Resources. Also, the authors would like to thank the editor and anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments for improvement of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Department, Isfahan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Isfahan, Iran

    Kourosh Shirani

  2. Department of Geology, Faculty of Science, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, 81746-73441, Iran

    Mehrdad Pasandi

  3. Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

    Alireza Arabameri

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  1. Kourosh Shirani
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  2. Mehrdad Pasandi
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  3. Alireza Arabameri
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Correspondence to Kourosh Shirani.

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Shirani, K., Pasandi, M. & Arabameri, A. Landslide susceptibility assessment by Dempster–Shafer and Index of Entropy models, Sarkhoun basin, Southwestern Iran. Nat Hazards 93, 1379–1418 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3356-2

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