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Analyzing interactions between risk factors for ice disaster in Ning-Meng reach of Yellow River based on grey rough DEMATEL method

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Abstract

The ice disaster risk in Ning-Meng reach of Yellow River in China is affected by many factors, and the various risk factors are not independent with each other but present complicated causal relationships. Identifying key ice disaster risk factors and analyzing the inner dependencies between factors are conducive to the successful implementation of ice disaster risk management. This paper concludes ice disaster risk factors through the current literature and the formation mechanism of ice disaster. The grey rough DEMATEL method is proposed to evaluate the interactions between risk factors, and it integrates the strength of grey number in characterizing decision maker’s subjective information and the merit of rough logic in excavating and utilizing potential group decision information. The results show that the obtained visualized structural model can reveal the complex causal interactions between ice disaster risk factors effectively and determine the importance of risk factors. The study enhances ice disaster risk identification and provides a better reference for ice disaster prevention and management.

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Acknowledgements

This paper is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71271086), Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (KYCX19_0127), China Scholarship Council. The authors are grateful to the editors and anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions on the paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing, 211189, China

    Wenxin Mao & Wenping Wang

  2. School of Mathematics and Statistics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450046, China

    Dang Luo

  3. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, 211106, China

    Huifang Sun

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  1. Wenxin Mao
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  2. Wenping Wang
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  3. Dang Luo
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  4. Huifang Sun
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Correspondence to Wenxin Mao.

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Mao, W., Wang, W., Luo, D. et al. Analyzing interactions between risk factors for ice disaster in Ning-Meng reach of Yellow River based on grey rough DEMATEL method. Nat Hazards 97, 1025–1049 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03684-3

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