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Combined effects of predicted climate and land use changes on future hydrological droughts in the Luanhe River basin, China

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Abstract

Both climate and land-use changes can influence drought in different ways. Thus, to predict future drought conditions, hydrological simulations, as an ideal means, can be used to account for both projected climate change and projected land-use change. In this study, projected climate and land-use changes were integrated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to estimate the combined impact of climate and land-use projections on hydrological droughts in the Lutheran River basin. We showed that the measured runoff and the remote sensing inversion of soil water content were simultaneously used to validate the model to ensure the reliability of the model parameters. Following calibration and validation, the SWAT model was forced with downscaled precipitation and temperature outputs from a suite of nine global climate models (GCMs) based on CMIP5, corresponding to three different representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three distinct time periods: 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, referred to as early century, mid-century and late-century, respectively, and the land use predicted by the CA–Markov model in the same future periods. Hydrological droughts were quantified using the standardized runoff index (SRI). Compared to the baseline scenario (1961–1990), mild drought occurred more frequently during the next three periods (except for the 2080s under the RCP2.6 emissions scenario). Under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, the probability of severe drought or above occurring in the 2080s increased, the duration was prolonged, and the severity increased. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the upper central region of the Luanhe River in the 2020s and upper reaches of the Luanhe River in the 2080s were more likely to experience extreme drought events. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the middle and lower Luanhe River in the 2080s was more likely to experience these conditions.

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Acknowledgements

The authors sincerely acknowledge the insightful comments and corrections of editors and reviewers. This investigation is supported by the MOST key project (Grant No. 2018YFE0106500) and the Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 5207090113 and 51279123). The authors declare there is no conflict of interest regarding the publication of this article.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Hydrology Bureau of Haihe River Water Conservancy Commission, MWR, No.15, Longtan Road, Hedong District, Tianjin 300170, China

    Xu Chen & Ruiguang Han

  2. State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China

    Ping Feng

  3. Infrastructure Construction Department, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China

    Yongjie Wang

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  1. Xu Chen
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  2. Ruiguang Han
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  4. Yongjie Wang
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Correspondence to Ruiguang Han.

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The authors declare there is no conflict of interest regarding the publication of this article. This article does not contain any studies with human participants or animals performed by any of the authors. Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study.

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I certify that this manuscript is original and has not been published and will not be submitted elsewhere for publication while being considered by Natural Hazards. And the study is not split up into several parts to increase the quantity of submissions and submitted to various journals or to one journal over time. No data have been fabricated or manipulated (including images) to support your conclusions. No data, text or theories by others are presented as if they were our own. The submission has been received explicitly from all co-authors. And authors whose names appear on the submission have contributed sufficiently to the scientific work and therefore share collective responsibility and accountability for the results.

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Chen, X., Han, R., Feng, P. et al. Combined effects of predicted climate and land use changes on future hydrological droughts in the Luanhe River basin, China. Nat Hazards 110, 1305–1337 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04992-3

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