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GCMT: a graph-contextualized multitask spatio-temporal joint prediction model for cellular trajectories

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Abstract

Spatio-temporal joint prediction aims to simultaneously predict the next location and the corresponding switch time for a cellular trajectory. An accuracy prediction requires not only sequential information but also spatio-temporal context information. Although existing methods can utilize trajectory modeling to support the joint prediction, they fail to learn the complicated geographical influence, temporal dependencies and various context information. To this end, we propose a graph-contextualized multitask learning method for spatio-temporal joint prediction. Specially, to model each location’s spatio-temporal dependencies, a graph embedding module is adopted to jointly capture the geographical influence and temporal cyclic effect by embedding three relational graphs (i.e., location-location, location-region, and location-time) into a shared low dimensional space. Moreover, considering the impact of traffic-related contexts on trajectory movement, we design a traffic encoder to model the dynamic of traffic flows, which comprises several spatio-temporal blocks combining temporal gated CNN with spatial graph convolution. In addition, a context-attention layer is proposed to fuse trajectory sequential information and traffic information based on various background factors. Finally, GCMT is evaluated on two real-world datasets to demonstrate its advantages.

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Acknowledgements

This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 61872166), Six Talent Peaks Project of Jiangsu Province (2019 XYDXX-161).

Funding

The funding concludes the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 61872166), Six Talent Peaks Project of Jiangsu Province (2019 XYDXX-161).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Artificial Intelligence and Computer Science, Jiangnan University, Wuxi, China

    Yu Sang & Zhenping Xie

  2. School of Computer Science and Technology, Soochow University, Suzhou, China

    Yuan Xu

  3. Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, China

    Bo Ning

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  1. Yu Sang
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  2. Yuan Xu
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  3. Bo Ning
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  4. Zhenping Xie
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Contributions

Yu Sang and Yuan Xu wrote the main manuscript text. Bo Ning and Zhenping Xie participated in model design and technical discussion.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Bo Ning.

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We declare that we have no conflict of interest.

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Availability of supporting data

Hangzhou and Xiamen datasets are non-public datasets.

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Yu Sang and Yuan Xu contributed equally to this work.

This article belongs to the Topical Collection: Special Issue on Spatiotemporal Data Management and Analytics for Recommenders Guest Editors: Shuo Shang, Xiangliang Zhang and Panos Kalnis

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Sang, Y., Xu, Y., Ning, B. et al. GCMT: a graph-contextualized multitask spatio-temporal joint prediction model for cellular trajectories. World Wide Web 26, 1649–1665 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11280-022-01095-2

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