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Evolution of cumulative Coulomb failure stress in northeastern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau and its effect on large earthquake occurrence

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Acta Seismologica Sinica

Abstract

We simulate accumulative Coulomb failure stress change in a layered Maxwell viscoelastic media in the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau since 1920. Lithospheric stress/strain evolution is assumed to be driven by dislocations of large earthquakes (M≥7.0) and secular tectonic loading. The earthquake rupture parameters such as the fault rupture length, width, and slip are either adopted from field investigations or estimated from their statistic relationships with the earthquake magnitudes and seismic moments. Our study shows that among 20 large earthquakes (M≥7.0) investigated, 17 occurred in areas where the Coulomb failure stress change is positive, with a triggering rate of 85%. This study provides essential data for the intermediate to long-term likelihood estimation of large earthquakes in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, 100029, China

    Wan Yong-ge  (万永革) & Shen Zheng-kang  (沈正康)

  2. Institute of Disaster Prevention of Science and Technology, Sanhe, 065201, China

    Wan Yong-ge  (万永革)

  3. Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, 90095-1567, USA

    Shen Zheng-kang  (沈正康)

  4. U. S. Geology Survey, Golden, CO, 80401, USA

    Zeng Yue-hua  (曾跃华)

  5. Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, 10008, China

    Sheng Shu-zhong  (盛书中)

Authors
  1. Wan Yong-ge  (万永革)
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  2. Shen Zheng-kang  (沈正康)
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  3. Zeng Yue-hua  (曾跃华)
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  4. Sheng Shu-zhong  (盛书中)
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Wan Yong-ge  (万永革).

Additional information

Foundation item: National Natural Science Foundation of China (40374012 and 40334042) and State Key Fundamental Research Development Plan Project (2001CB711005).

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Wan, Yg., Shen, Zk., Zeng, Yh. et al. Evolution of cumulative Coulomb failure stress in northeastern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau and its effect on large earthquake occurrence. Acta Seimol. Sin. 20, 117–132 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11589-007-0117-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11589-007-0117-9

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