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Explainability analysis in predictive models based on machine learning techniques on the risk of hospital readmissions

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Abstract

Purpose

Analyzing the risk of re-hospitalization of patients with chronic diseases allows the healthcare institutions can deliver accurate preventive care to reduce hospital admissions, and the planning of the medical spaces and resources. Thus, the research question is: Is it possible to use artificial intelligence to study the risk of re-hospitalization of patients?

Methods

This article presents several models to predict when a patient can be hospitalized again, after its discharge. In addition, an explainability analysis is carried out with the predictive models to extract information to determine the degree of importance of the predictors/descriptors. Particularly, this article makes a comparative analysis of different explainability techniques in the study context.

Results

The best model is a classifier based on decision trees with an F1-Score of 83% followed by LGMB with an F1-Score of 67%. For these models, Shapley values were calculated as a method of explainability. Concerning the quality of the explainability of the predictive models, the stability metric was used. According to this metric, more variability is evidenced in the explanations of the decision trees, where only 4 attributes are very stable (21%) and 1 attribute is unstable. With respect to the LGBM-based model, there are 12 stable attributes (63%) and no unstable attributes. Thus, in terms of explainability, the LGBM-based model is better.

Conclusions

According to the results of the explanations generated by the best predictive models, LGBM-based predictive model presents more stable variables. Thus, it generates greater confidence in the explanations it provides.

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Data availability

The datasets used in the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Funding

Jose Aguilar was partially supported by grant 22-STIC-06 (HAMADI 4.0 project) funded by the STIC-AmSud regional program.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. GIDITIC, Universidad EAFIT, Medellín, Colombia

    Juan Camilo Lopera Bedoya & Jose Lisandro Aguilar Castro

  2. CEMISID, Universidad de Los Andes, Mérida, Venezuela

    Jose Lisandro Aguilar Castro

  3. IMDEA Networks Institute, Madrid, Spain

    Jose Lisandro Aguilar Castro

Authors
  1. Juan Camilo Lopera Bedoya
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  2. Jose Lisandro Aguilar Castro
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Contributions

Concept and design: All authors; Acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data: Lopera; Drafting of the manuscript: All authors; Results analysis: All authors; Obtained funding: Aguilar.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jose Lisandro Aguilar Castro.

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Ethics statement

The study was conducted in accordance with relevant guidelines and regulations, and approved by the EAFIT University ethics committee.

Consent to participate

The Sura health center has signed an anonymized data use agreement with the EAFIT University.

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

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Bedoya, J.C.L., Castro, J.L.A. Explainability analysis in predictive models based on machine learning techniques on the risk of hospital readmissions. Health Technol. 14, 93–108 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12553-023-00794-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12553-023-00794-8

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