Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis

Alexander Bartik (), Marianne Bertrand, Feng Lin, Jesse Rothstein and Matt Unrath

No 27613, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We use traditional and non-traditional data to measure the collapse and partial recovery of the U.S. labor market from March to early July, contrast this downturn to previous recessions, and provide preliminary evidence on the effects of the policy response. For hourly workers at both small and large businesses, nearly all of the decline in employment occurred between March 14 and 28. It was driven by low-wage services, particularly the retail and leisure and hospitality sectors. A large share of the job losses in small businesses reflected firms that closed entirely, though many subsequently reopened. Firms that were already unhealthy were more likely to close and less likely to reopen, and disadvantaged workers were more likely to be laid off and less likely to return. Most laid off workers expected to be recalled, and this was predictive of rehiring. Shelter-in-place orders drove only a small share of job losses. Last, states that received more small business loans from the Paycheck Protection Program and states with more generous unemployment insurance benefits had milder declines and faster recoveries. We find no evidence that high UI replacement rates drove job losses or slowed rehiring.

JEL-codes: E24 E32 J2 J63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea, nep-ias, nep-lma and nep-mac
Note: EFG LS
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (129)

Published as Alexander W. Bartik & Marianne Bertrand & Feng Lin & Jesse Rothstein & Matthew Unrath, 2020. "Measuring the Labor Market at the Onset of the COVID-19 Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol 2020(2), pages 239-268.

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Related works:
Journal Article: Measuring the Labor Market at the Onset of the COVID-19 Crisis (2020)
Working Paper: Measuring the Labor Market at the Onset of the COVID-19 Crisis (2020)
Working Paper: Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis (2020)
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