black swan fallacyとは 意味・読み方・使い方

名詞

black swan fallacy (複数形 black swan fallacies)

1. The logical error of discounting the possibility of something in which the arguer ignores contradictory evidence on the basis of past experience.
2. The logical error of discounting the possibility of something based on limited past experience (i.e. lack of contradictory evidence), an argument from ignorance.
   • 2015, Robert V Kozinets, Netnography: Redefined, page 163:

     The black swan fallacy holds that if all you have ever observed in your field research are white swans, you might be tempted to conclude 'All swans are white'. However, a black swan was discovered in Australia. Therefore, all it takes is one black swan to falsify the general statement about the universality of white swans.