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2022 Israeli legislative election

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2022 Israeli legislative election
Israel
← 2021 1 November 2022
All 120 seats in the Knesset
61 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
Likud Benjamin Netanyahu 29
Yesh Atid Yair Lapid 17
B&W–NH Benny Gantz 13
Shas Aryeh Deri 9
Zionist Spirit Ayelet Shaked 8
Labor Merav Michaeli 7
UTJ Moshe Gafni 7
Yisrael Beiteinu Avigdor Lieberman 7
Religious Zionist Bezalel Smotrich 6
Joint List Ayman Odeh 6
Meretz Nitzan Horowitz 6
Ra'am Mansour Abbas 4
Otzma Yehudit Itamar Ben-Gvir[1] 1
Incumbent Prime Minister
Yair Lapid
Yesh Atid

Legislative elections will be held in Israel on 1 November 2022 to elect the members of the twenty-fifth Knesset. The next elections for the Knesset following the 2021 election were initially scheduled for no later than 11 November 2025, according to the four-year term limit set by the Basic Law. The unity government, formed between eight political parties, held the narrowest possible majority (61 seats) in the 120-member Knesset. In April 2022, MK Idit Silman quit the governing coalition and left it without a majority.[2]

On 20 June 2022, following several legislative defeats for the governing coalition in the Knesset, prime minister Naftali Bennett and alternate prime minister Yair Lapid announced the introduction of a bill to dissolve the Knesset,[3] which was approved on 30 June.[4] Simultaneously, in accordance with the rotation agreement that was part of the 2021 coalition deal, Lapid became prime minister, and serves in a caretaker capacity until the elections take place on 1 November.[5]

Background

Further information: 2019–2022 Israeli political crisis and Thirty-sixth government of Israel

The extended period of political deadlock that led up to the election was the result of four inconclusive elections (April 2019, September 2019, 2020 and 2021). In April and September 2019, neither incumbent prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor leader of the main opposition party Blue and White Benny Gantz were able to muster a 61-seat governing majority, leading to fresh elections.[6][7] In March 2020, they resulted in the formation of a unity government between Netanyahu and Gantz,[8] that collapsed in December following a budgetary dispute, leading to another election in March 2021.[9][10] The 2021 election led to the formation of another unity government between eight political parties, with the leader of the Yamina party, Naftali Bennett, and the leader of Yesh Atid, Yair Lapid becoming prime minister and alternate prime minister respectively.[11][12] Bennett and Lapid agreed to rotate their positions after two years, with Lapid becoming the prime minister and Bennett becoming the alternate prime minister.[13]

Upon the government's formation in June 2021, it held 61 seats (all Members of the Knesset from coalition parties excluding Yamina's Amichai Chikli) in the Knesset.[14][15][16] On 6 April 2022, Yamina Member of the Knesset (MK) Idit Silman resigned from the coalition, causing the governing coalition to lose its majority in the Knesset.[17] Silman cited a decision from Minister of Health Nitzan Horowitz to enforce a court ruling allowing hospital visitors to enter with chametz (leavened bread) during Passover (which is forbidden under Jewish law),[18] and other religion-related actions of the coalition.[19] On 19 May, Meretz MK Ghaida Rinawie Zoabi resigned from the coalition, alleging that the government had adopted a hardline stance on Israeli–Palestinian issues, and lowering its number of seats in the Knesset to a minority of 59.[20] She rejoined the coalition three days later,[21] but on 7 June, she joined the opposition in voting down a bill that would have renewed the application of Israeli law in the West Bank settlements, which was set to expire in July.[22] The bill was supported by the government.[23] On 13 June, Yamina MK Nir Orbach left the coalition, arguing that left-wing members of the coalition were holding it hostage.[24]

On 20 June, Bennett and Lapid announced the introduction of a bill to dissolve the Knesset in a joint statement, stating that Lapid would become the interim prime minister following the dissolution.[3] The dissolution of the Knesset automatically delayed the expiration date of the ordinances until 90 days after the formation of the next government.[25][26] The bill to dissolve the Knesset passed its first reading on 28 June.[27] The bill passed its third reading on 29 June and the date for elections was set for 1 November 2022.[28] Bennett opted to retire from politics and not seek reelection; he resigned as the leader of Yamina on 29 June, and was succeeded by Ayelet Shaked.[29]

On 30 June, in accordance with the coalition agreement, Lapid succeeded Bennett as the caretaker prime minister.[30]

Electoral system

Further information: Elections in Israel

The 120 seats in the Knesset are elected by closed list proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency. The electoral threshold for the election is 3.25%.[31] Two parties can sign a surplus vote agreement that allows them to compete for leftover seats as if they were running together on the same list. The Bader–Ofer method slightly favours larger lists, meaning that alliances are more likely to receive leftover seats than parties would be individually. If the alliance receives leftover seats, the Bader–Ofer calculation is applied privately, to determine how the seats are divided among the two allied lists.[32]

Timeline[33]

  • 1 September - Deadline for submitting an application for registration of a new party to the Registrar of Parties for the purpose of running in this election.
  • 11 September - Publication of the final list of parties running.
  • 14-15 September - Date of submission of the lists of candidates to the Election Committee.
  • 22 September - Deadline for filing a petition requesting disqualification of a list or candidate from running.
  • 18 October - Beginning of television and radio advertising window.
  • 1 November - Election date.
  • 9 November - Deadline for the publication of the final election results.

Parties

See also: List of political parties in Israel

Public expression of interest

Leadership elections and primaries

Leadership elections will be held by some parties to determine party leadership ahead of the election. Primary elections will be held by some parties in advance of the national election to determine the composition of their party list.

Balad

Balad party leader Sami Abu Shehadeh gained another term as party leader in a vote held by party members on 6 August 2022.[42]

Hadash

Hadash will hold its party primary on 13 August.[43]

Labor

Further information: 2022 Israeli Labor Party leadership election

The leadership primary for Labor was held on 18 July 2022, where party leader Merav Michaeli defeated party secretary general Eran Hermoni in a historic consecutive win by a party leader.[44]

Party primaries will take place on 9 August.[43]

Likud

Benjamin Netanyahu did not face a challenge for the party leadership.[45] Likud MK Yuli Edelstein, a former health minister and speaker of the Knesset, had initially stated an intent to challenge Netanyahu in 2021, but announced in late June 2022 that he would not do so.[45][46] Netanyahu last faced an internal leadership challenge in 2019, when he defeated Gideon Sa'ar by a large margin (Sa'ar then left the Likud in 2020 to form his own party).[46] The planned leadership primary was cancelled on 19 July 2022, as no one besides Netanyahu contested it.[47]

Likud is one of several Israeli parties that allows its membership to determine a portion of the party's electoral list.[45] The Likud's electoral list is composed of candidates selected by four methods: national primary elections, regional representatives (chosen from 10 regions), slots set aside for minorities, and slots filled by the party leader (Netanyahu).[48] The primaries will take place on 10 August.[43] Contenders include Netanyahu's economic advisor Avi Simhon,[49] far-right former MK Moshe Feiglin, and former MK Ayoob Kara.[50] A Likud party committee moved the minority slot to a low position on the party list (No. 44), making it unlikely that the candidate selected to fill the slot would be elected.[48] This move angered the Druze, including Likud MK Fateen Mulla, who currently fills the Likud minority seat.[48]

Meretz

Yair Golan announced on 6 July 2022 that he would run in the Meretz leadership primary and challenge incumbent Nitzan Horowitz.[51] Horowitz announced on 12 July that he would not run in the leadership election.[52] The election committee of the party selected 23 August as the date for the party primary and the leadership primary.[53] Former party leader Zehava Gal-On announced on 19 July that she will also run.[54]

Religious Zionist

The Religious Zionist Party will hold its primaries digitally on 23 August 2022.[55] The candidate deadline is 2 August.[56]

Ta'al

Ta'al will hold its party primary on 27 August.[40]

United Arab List

Mansour Abbas was approved for another term as the party leader of the United Arab List on 6 August 2022.[57]

Current composition

Further information on the 24th Knesset: List of members of the twenty-fourth Knesset

The table below lists the parliamentary factions represented in the 24th Knesset.

Name Ideology Symbol Primary demographic Leader 2021 result At dissolution
Votes (%) Seats
Likud National liberalism מחל‎ – Benjamin Netanyahu 24.19%
30 / 120
29 / 120
Yesh Atid Liberalism פה‎ – Yair Lapid 13.93%
17 / 120
17 / 120
Shas Religious conservatism שס‎ Sephardi and
Mizrahi Haredim 		Aryeh Deri 7.17%
9 / 120
9 / 120
Blue and White Social liberalism כן‎ – Benny Gantz 6.63%
8 / 120
8 / 120
Yamina National conservatism ב‎ – Ayelet Shaked 6.21%
7 / 120
6 / 120
Labor Social democracy אמת‎ – Merav Michaeli 6.09%
7 / 120
7 / 120
United Torah Judaism Religious conservatism ג‎ Ashkenazi Haredim Moshe Gafni 5.63%
7 / 120
7 / 120
Yisrael Beiteinu Nationalism
Secularism 		ל‎ Russian-speakers Avigdor Lieberman 5.63%
7 / 120
7 / 120
Religious Zionist Religious Zionism ט‎ Israeli settlers, Modern Orthodox and Hardal Jews Bezalel Smotrich 5.12%
5 / 120
6 / 120
Otzma Yehudit Kahanism – Itamar Ben-Gvir
1 / 120
1 / 120
Joint List Big tent
Minority interests 		ודעם‎ Israeli Arabs Ayman Odeh 4.82%
6 / 120
6 / 120
New Hope National liberalism ת‎ – Gideon Sa'ar 4.74%
6 / 120
6 / 120
Meretz Social democracy מרצ‎ – Nitzan Horowitz 4.59%
6 / 120
6 / 120
Ra'am Islamic democracy עם‎ Israeli Arab Sunni Muslims, Negev Bedouin Mansour Abbas 3.79%
4 / 120
4 / 120
Independent – – Amichai Chikli
N/A
1 / 120

Retiring incumbents

The table below lists all Members of the Knesset who will not stand for re-election.[a]

Party Name Year first elected
Likud Yuval Steinitz[58] 1999[59][b]
Meretz Issawi Frej[58] 2021
Ghaida Rinawie Zoabi[60] 2021
Tamar Zandberg[61] 2013
New Hope Benny Begin[62] 2021
United Arab List Mazen Ghnaim[63] 2013
Yamina Naftali Bennett[64] 2019

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2022 Israeli legislative election

This graph shows the polling trends from the 2022 Israeli legislative election until the next election day using local regressions (LOESS). Scenario polls are not included here. For parties not crossing the electoral threshold (currently 3.25%) in any given poll, the number of seats is calculated as a percentage of the 120 total seats.

Local regression of polls conducted

See also

Notes

  1. ^ This section includes Individuals elected to the Knesset who resigned under the Norwegian Law. They are sorted by party and by the year in which their consecutive term as a Member of the Knesset (including resignations under the Norwegian Law) began.
  2. ^ A general election took place in 1999, but Steinitz assumed office several months later following Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation from the Knesset

References

  1. ^ "Yamina remains intact as deadline for party split expires". The Jerusalem Post. 3 July 2022. Retrieved 3 July 2022.
  2. ^ Ben Zion, Ilan (6 April 2022). "Israel government loses majority as religious lawmaker quits". Associated Press. Retrieved 6 April 2022.
  3. ^ a b Keller-Lynn, Carrie (20 June 2022). "Bennett announces coalition's demise, new elections: 'We did our utmost to continue'". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 3 July 2022.
  4. ^ Keller-Lynn, Carrie (30 June 2022). "Knesset disbands, sets elections for November 1; Lapid to become PM at midnight". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 3 July 2022.
  5. ^ Tia Goldenberg (3 July 2022). "Israel's caretaker PM Lapid holds first Cabinet meeting". Associated Press. Retrieved 9 July 2022.
  6. ^ "בחירות 2019 (אפריל)" [2019 Election (April)]. Israel Democracy Institute (in Hebrew). Retrieved 21 June 2022.
  7. ^ "בחירות 2019 (ספטמבר)" [2019 Election (September)]. Israel Democracy Institute (in Hebrew). Retrieved 21 June 2022.
  8. ^ "בחירות 2020" [2020 Election]. Israel Democracy Institute (in Hebrew). Retrieved 21 June 2022.
  9. ^ Wootliff, Raoul (23 December 2020). "Israel calls 4th election in 2 years as Netanyahu-Gantz coalition collapses". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 23 December 2020.
  10. ^ "בחירות 2021" [2021 Election]. Israel Democracy Institute (in Hebrew). Retrieved 21 June 2022.
  11. ^ ynet, כתבי (13 June 2021). "על חודו של קול: ממשלת בנט-לפיד אושרה בכנסת". Ynet (in Hebrew). Retrieved 2 June 2022.
  12. ^ "ממשלת השינוי הורכבה: כל מפלגות הקואליציה חתמו על ההסכמים". הארץ (in Hebrew). Retrieved 2 June 2022.
  13. ^ "Lapid says he made offer to Bennett to be PM first in rotation". www.timesofisrael.com. Retrieved 1 June 2022.
  14. ^ "נוסחת עמיחי שיקלי: כך יראו יחסים העבודה עם הקואליציה" [Amichai Chikli Formula: how his working relationship with the coalition will look]. Srugim (in Hebrew). Retrieved 21 June 2022.
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  31. ^ Harkov, Lahav (16 March 2014). "With Bader-Ofer method, not every ballot counts". The Jerusalem Post.
  32. ^ The Distribution of Knesset Seats Among the Lists—the Bader-Offer Method Knesset
  33. ^ "Announcement by the Register of Parties regarding shortening deadlines and changing procedures for the elections to the Twenty-fifth Knesset (Hebrew)". 3 July 2022.
  34. ^ Keller-Lynn, Carrie (30 June 2022). "Pro-marijuana party in blunt message: 'Yes, we'll run'". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 30 June 2022.
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  38. ^ Eliav Breuer (2 August 2022). "Smotrich, Ben-Gvir close to merger agreement". The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved 2 August 2022.
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  40. ^ a b Dalit Halevi (18 July 2022). "Tibi's party to remain part of Joint List". Arutz Sheva. Retrieved 17 July 2022.
  41. ^ Maya Margrit (22 July 2022). "New Israeli party focused on the high cost of living hopes to win youth vote in November". The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved 22 July 2022.
  42. ^ Keller-Lynn, Carrie (6 August 2022). "MK Sami Abu Shehadeh retains role as Balad faction leader". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 6 August 2022.
  43. ^ a b c "Labor and Likud primaries may be postponed over security concerns". The Jerusalem Post. 7 August 2022. Retrieved 7 August 2022.
  44. ^ Keller-Lynn, Carrie (18 July 2022). "Michaeli clinches second elected term as Labor leader, a first in party's history". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 18 July 2022.
  45. ^ a b c Keller-Lynn, Carrie (5 July 2022). "As Likud primaries near, final date and procedures still in the air". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 16 July 2022.
  46. ^ a b "Edelstein, who said Netanyahu can't win, abandons Likud leadership challenge". The Times of Israel. 23 June 2022.
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  48. ^ a b c Eliav Breuer (11 July 2022). "Druze rage at Likud moves minority slot to #44 on list". The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved 12 July 2022.
  49. ^ Rosenberg, David (3 July 2022). "Netanyahu's economic adviser to run in Likud primaries". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 3 July 2022.
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  51. ^ Keller-Lynn, Carrie (6 July 2022). "Meretz leadership in play as Golan enters race against Horowitz". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 6 July 2022.
  52. ^ Eliav Breuer (12 July 2022). "Nitzan Horowitz to step down as Meretz head". The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved 12 July 2022.
  53. ^ "Meretz primaries set for August 23". Arutz Sheva. 15 July 2022. Retrieved 14 July 2022.
  54. ^ "Zehava Galon announces candidacy for Meretz primaries". The Jerusalem Post. 19 July 2022. Retrieved 19 July 2022.
  55. ^ "Religious Zionism party to hold digitalized primaries on August 23". Arutz Sheva. 7 July 2022. Retrieved 6 July 2022.
  56. ^ Keller-Lynn, Carrie (29 July 2022). "'We have no home': Undecided former Yamina voters wait for least worst option". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 29 July 2022.
  57. ^ Keller-Lynn, Carrie (6 August 2022). "Mansour Abbas secures another term leading Ra'am". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 6 August 2022.
  58. ^ a b Noa Shpigel (5 July 2022). "Two Longtime Israeli Lawmakers Say They're Quitting Politics". Haaretz. Retrieved 6 July 2022.
  59. ^ Azulai, Moran (5 July 2022). "שטייניץ פורש מהפוליטיקה: "מגיע לי ולמשפחתי לנשום קצת אוויר נקי"" [Steinitz Retires from Politics: "I and my family deserve to breathe some fresh air"]. Ynet (in Hebrew). Retrieved 7 July 2022.
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  61. ^ "'I Decided to Take a Break': Israeli Minister Zandberg Won't Run for Parliament" [Member of the Knesset Tamar Zandberg]. Haaretz. Retrieved 18 July 2022.
  62. ^ "MK Benny Begin, son of first Likud PM, leaves politics". The Times of Israel. 28 July 2022. Retrieved 28 July 2022.
  63. ^ "Rebel coalition MK Ghanaim says he won't run in upcoming Knesset election". The Times of Israel. 21 June 2022. Retrieved 6 July 2022.
  64. ^ "Israel's Knesset Set to Dissolve; Bennett Says He Will Not Seek Reelection". Voice of America. 29 June 2022. Retrieved 6 July 2022.
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