PERIODO 1 PERIODO 2 PERIODO 3 PERIODO 4 PERIODO 5

TRIMESTRE 1TRIMESTRE 2TRIMESTRE 3TRIMESTRE 4TRIMESTRE 5

200 283 420 360 260
210 295 440 380 270
220 310 450 390 280
PROMEDIO 210.00 296.00 436.67 376.67 270.00 317.87
COEFICIENTE DE
ESTACIONALIDAD 0.661 0.931 1.374 1.185 0.849 5

COEFICIENT PRONÓSTIC PRONOSTIC

REAL E DE REAL O O
ESTACIONAL ESTACIONAL DESESTACIO DESESTACIO ESTACIONAL
X IZADO IDAD NALIZADO NALIZADO IZADO
1 200 0.66065436 302.730159
2 283 0.93120805 303.906306
3 420 1.37374161 305.734351
4 360 1.18498322 303.80177
5 260 0.84941275 306.093827
6 210 0.66065436 317.866667
7 295 0.93120805 316.792793
8 440 1.37374161 320.29313
9 380 1.18498322 320.679646
10 270 0.84941275 317.866667
11 220 0.66065436 333.003175
12 310 0.93120805 332.900901
13 450 1.37374161 327.572519
14 390 1.18498322 329.118584
15 280 0.84941275 329.639506
16 0.66065436 336.4344 222
17 0.93120805 338.7553 315
18 1.37374161 341.0762 469
19 1.18498322 343.3971 407
20 0.84941275 345.718 294

B.
16 353.2064
17 357.6243
18 362.0422
19 366.4601
20 370.878
 REAL DESESTACIONALIZADO
340

330 f(x) = 2.32086199246749 x + 299.299770726927

R² = 0.86821186705909

320

310

300

290

280
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

REAL ESTACIONALIZADO
500
450
400
350
f(x) = 4.41785714285715 x + 282.523809523809
300 R² = 0.055977958875402
250
200
150
450
400
350
f(x) = 4.41785714285715 x + 282.523809523809
300 R² = 0.055977958875402
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Semana Demanda de inventarios PMS N=3 MAD PMP N=3 MAD
1 61
2 65
3 52
4 60 59.33 0.67 57.7 2.3
5 55 59.00 4.00 58.6 3.6
6 56 55.67 0.33 55.9 0.1
7 60 57.00 3.00 56.5 3.5
8 65 57.00 8.00 57.8 7.2
9 53 60.33 7.33 61.7 8.7
10 61 59.33 1.67 58 3
11 58 59.67 1.67 59.4 1.4
12 59 57.33 1.67 57.9 1.1
13 62 59.33 2.67 59.1 2.9
14 59 59.67 0.67 60.3 1.3
15 60 60.00 0.00 59.9 0.1
16 60.33 2.64 60.1 2.93
MAD MAD
 FACTOR PRONOSTICO
SEMANA 1 SEMANA 2 PROMEDIO ESTACIONAL PROMEDIO ESTACIONAL
DOMINGO 15 24 19.5 0.215 92.8571429 20
LUNES 30 45 37.5 0.413 92.8571429 38
MARTES 90 96 93 1.024 92.8571429 95
MIERCOLES 105 90 97.5 1.073 92.8571429 100
JUEVES 147 135 141 1.552 92.8571429 144
VIERNES 210 210 210 2.311 92.8571429 215
SABADO 45 30 37.5 0.413 92.8571429 38
90.8571428571429 650 650
MES VENTAS FT(t) S(t) T(t)
1 539
2 570
3 526
4 592 513.00 544.60 9.00
5 612 553.60 576.96 18.48
6 615 595.44 603.26 25.49
7 614 628.75 622.85 27.84
8 619 650.69 638.01 26.06
664.08 398.45 22.26
X MES DEMANDA PMP PMS N=3 F(t) a:0,2
1 ENERO 12
2 FEBRERO 11
3 MARZO 15
4 ABRIL 12
5 MAYO 16
6 JUNIO 15 13
7 JULIO 15 14.33 13.4 16.20
A. B. C. E.
D.
DEMANDA
18
16
f(x) = 0.771428571428571 x + 10.8
14 R² = 0.484385382059801
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
SEMANA CLIENTES VENTAS B.
1 38 330 VE
2 40 400 600
3 48 490
4 53 470 500
f(x) = 8.52272727272728 x +
5 51 460 R² = 0.811823954788527
400
6 52 490
7 53 480
300
8 58 533
9 61 555 200
10 63 577
A. B. 100

A. 0
36 38 40 42 44

CLIENTES
60

f(x) = 2.57142857142857 x + 37.5714285714286

50 R² = 0.77511961722488

40

30

20

10

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
 VENTAS

f(x) = 8.52272727272728 x + 37.840909090909

R² = 0.811823954788527

38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN
2018 2654 2926 2532 3110 2876 3456
2019 2785 2875 2555 3321 3021 3211
2020 2932 3025 2576 3423 2987 3876
PROMEDIO 2790.33 2942.00 2554.33 3284.67 2961.33 3514.33
IND. ESTACION 0.852 0.898 0.780 1.003 0.904 1.073

B. SUAVIZAMIENTO EXP CON T

A. PROMEDIO
MOVIL
REAL PONDERADO MAD FT(t) S(t) T(t) MAD
2654 2396.00 2473.40 35
2926 2508.40 2633.68 81.44
2532 2715.12 2660.18 156.61
3110 2683.67 426.33 2816.79 2904.75 123.65 293.21
2876 2886.67 10.67 3028.40 2982.68 176.42 152.40
3456 2896.67 559.33 3159.10 3248.17 148.99 296.90
3222 3205.00 17.00 3397.16 3344.62 202.43 175.16
2854 3242.33 388.33 3547.05 3339.13 170.90 693.05
2345 3077.00 732.00 3510.04 3160.53 46.15 1165.04
3228 2660.83 567.17 3206.68 3213.08 -163.55 21.32
4115 2871.33 1243.67 3049.52 3369.17 -159.71 1065.48
4321 3524.33 796.67 3209.45 3542.92 32.07 1111.55
2785 4070.17 1285.17 3574.99 3337.99 232.15 789.99
2875 3518.67 643.67 3570.14 3361.60 89.95 695.14
2555 3086.00 531.00 3451.55 3182.59 -35.17 896.55
3321 2700.00 621.00 3147.41 3199.49 -196.55 173.59
3021 2991.33 29.67 3002.94 3008.35 -165.31 18.06
3211 3043.33 167.67 2843.05 2953.43 -162.06 367.95
2990 3166.00 176.00 2791.38 2850.96 -95.82 198.62
2956 3068.83 112.83 2755.14 2815.40 -60.07 200.86
2889 3009.83 120.83 2755.33 2795.43 -23.92 133.67
3016 2928.17 87.83 2771.51 2844.86 0.14 244.49
4754 2963.67 1790.33 2845.00 3417.70 44.15 1909.00
4822 3863.83 958.17 3461.85 3869.90 387.77 1360.15
2932 4498.33 1566.33 4257.67 3859.97 632.60 1325.67
3025 3865.67 840.67 4492.57 4052.30 393.98 1467.57
2576 3293.50 717.50 4446.27 3885.19 129.82 1870.27
3423 2785.00 638.00 4015.01 3837.41 -206.83 592.01
2987 3074.33 87.33 3630.57 3437.50 -313.39 643.57
3876 3063.83 812.17 3124.11 3349.67 -429.24 751.89
3652 3504.17 147.83 2920.44 3139.91 -293.90 731.56
3012 3615.83 603.83 2846.01 2895.81 -162.22 165.99
3015 3369.33 354.33 2733.59 2818.01 -132.34 281.41
3487 3120.17 366.83 2685.68 2926.07 -81.68 801.32
4321 3250.50 1070.50 2844.39 3287.37 62.56 1476.61
4765 3825.33 939.67 3349.93 3774.45 328.34 1415.07
588.19 711.67
MAD MAD
JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC
3222 2854 2345 3228 4115 4321
2990 2956 2889 3016 4754 4822
3652 3012 3015 3487 4321 4765
3288.00 2940.67 2749.67 3243.67 4396.67 4636.00 3275.14
1.004 0.898 0.840 0.990 1.342 1.416

C. MODELO ESTACIONALIZADO

IND. REAL PRONOS PRONOS

X REAL ESTACION DESESTACION DESESTACION ESTACIONAL MAD
1 2654 0.852 3115.12 3088.66 2631.46
2 2926 0.898 3257.33 3099.31 2784.06
3 2532 0.780 3246.50 3109.97 2425.52
4 3110 1.003 3100.98 3120.63 3129.71 19.71
5 2876 0.904 3180.76 3131.29 2831.26 44.74
6 3456 1.073 3220.78 3141.94 3371.41 84.59
7 3222 1.004 3209.40 3152.60 3164.98 57.02
8 2854 0.898 3178.61 3163.26 2840.21 13.79
9 2345 0.840 2793.14 3173.91 2664.68 319.68
10 3228 0.990 3259.32 3184.57 3153.97 74.03
11 4115 1.342 3065.32 3195.23 4289.39 174.39
12 4321 1.416 3052.60 3205.88 4537.97 216.97
13 2785 0.852 3268.88 3216.54 2740.41 44.59
14 2875 0.898 3200.55 3227.20 2898.94 23.94
15 2555 0.780 3275.99 3237.86 2525.26 29.74
16 3321 1.003 3311.37 3248.51 3257.96 63.04
17 3021 0.904 3341.13 3259.17 2946.89 74.11
18 3211 1.073 2992.45 3269.83 3508.63 297.63
19 2990 1.004 2978.30 3280.48 3293.37 303.37
20 2956 0.898 3292.22 3291.14 2955.03 0.97
21 2889 0.840 3441.10 3301.80 2772.05 116.95
22 3016 0.990 3045.26 3312.45 3280.62 264.62
23 4754 1.342 3541.32 3323.11 4461.07 292.93
24 4822 1.416 3406.54 3333.77 4718.99 103.01
25 2932 0.852 3441.42 3344.43 2849.36 82.64
26 3025 0.898 3367.54 3355.08 3013.81 11.19
27 2576 0.780 3302.92 3365.74 2624.99 48.99
28 3423 1.003 3413.07 3376.40 3386.22 36.78
29 2987 0.904 3303.53 3387.05 3062.52 75.52
30 3876 1.073 3612.19 3397.71 3645.86 230.14
31 3652 1.004 3637.72 3408.37 3421.75 230.25
32 3012 0.898 3354.59 3419.02 3069.86 57.86
33 3015 0.840 3591.18 3429.68 2879.41 135.59
34 3487 0.990 3520.83 3440.34 3407.28 79.72
35 4321 1.342 3218.77 3451.00 4632.74 311.74
36 4765 1.416 3366.27 3461.65 4900.01 135.01
37 0.852 3472.31 2958.32 122.89
MAD
 REAL DESESTACION
4000.00

3500.00
f(x) = 10.6568561116323 x + 3077.98705082369
3000.00 R² = 0.356772734250448

2500.00

2000.00

1500.00

1000.00

500.00

0.00
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40