Consolidado 1 - Evalu

Sección: NRC 11717 - NRC 11932

Asignatura: Administración de Operaciones
Docente: Ybnias Elí Grijalva Yauri

Fecha:

Tema:
PRONÓSTICOS

Empresa:

DESCOMPOSICION ADITIVA
DESCOMPOSICION MULTIPLICATIVA

INSTRUCCIONES:
Seleccionar su correspondiente Sección - NRC
Utilizar la series de tiempo presentada en la hoja "TableData1"
Hoja "BVN" Información general de la empresa cuyas cotizaciones de a
Hoja "BVN" la información ha sido obtenida de https://eikon.refinitiv.c
Hoja "DA" calcular el pronóstico con el metodo de descomposición adi
Hoja "DM" calcular el pronóstico con el metodo de descomposición mu
Hoja "Analisis" realizar el analisis comparativo de los métodos, determ
RECOMENDACIONES
Desarrollar cada caso en ORDEN y cuidando aplicar adecuadamente lo
Presentar el proceso de cálculo y sus resultados en cada hoja.
Respetar el orden y la estructura establecida en el presente excel, que
El UNICO MEDIO de presentación en a través del AULA VIRTUAL, evites
 Consolidado 1 - Evaluación Individual

IDENTIFICACION DEL ESTUDIANTE

RC 11932 Código 73234955
n de Operaciones Apellidos: Quispe Capucho
lva Yauri Nombres: Daniela Patricia

6/28/2021

RONÓSTICOS

POSICION ADITIVA
CION MULTIPLICATIVA

a en la hoja "TableData1"
de la empresa cuyas cotizaciones de acciones se esta tomando en cuenta para la serie de datos.
do obtenida de https://eikon.refinitiv.com.
con el metodo de descomposición aditiva y generar los graficos correspondientes.
o con el metodo de descomposición multiplicativa y generar los graficos correspondientes.
s comparativo de los métodos, determinando cual es el mas adecuado, sustente adecuadamente su respues

y cuidando aplicar adecuadamente los lineamientos de cada metodo.

y sus resultados en cada hoja.
a establecida en el presente excel, que es el único medio de desarrollo de la tarea.
n en a través del AULA VIRTUAL, evitese complicaciones y presente dentro del plazo establecido.
 NRC 11715 -
NRC 11716 -
NRC 11717 -
NRC
NRC

de datos.

damente su respuesta.
ablecido.
Date BVN
Close
Jan-11 41.0000
Feb-11 46.6700
Mar-11 42.9700
Apr-11 41.6700
May-11 44.1200
Jun-11 37.9800
Jul-11 40.9400
Aug-11 46.8300
Sep-11 37.7400
Oct-11 40.9300
Nov-11 39.1500
Dec-11 38.3400
Jan-12 42.9000
Feb-12 40.1300
Mar-12 40.3100
Apr-12 41.2700
May-12 39.1400
Jun-12 37.9800
Jul-12 36.4200
Aug-12 34.6600
Sep-12 38.9600
Oct-12 35.7600
Nov-12 32.7700
Dec-12 35.9500
Jan-13 29.5900
Feb-13 25.6200
Mar-13 25.9600
Apr-13 20.0200
May-13 17.9500
Jun-13 14.7600
Jul-13 14.3000
Aug-13 12.6300
Sep-13 11.7100
Oct-13 14.5000
Nov-13 11.8000
Dec-13 11.2200
Jan-14 12.4000
Feb-14 12.6000
Mar-14 12.5700
Apr-14 13.0000
May-14 10.6900
Jun-14 11.8100
Jul-14 11.7100
Aug-14 14.5600
Sep-14 11.5800
Oct-14 9.2000
Nov-14 9.2500
Dec-14 9.5600
Jan-15 11.4200
Feb-15 11.5800
Mar-15 10.1300
Apr-15 11.1800
May-15 11.2000
Jun-15 10.3800
Jul-15 7.1200
Aug-15 6.3200
Sep-15 5.9600
Oct-15 6.4100
Nov-15 4.7400
Dec-15 4.2800
Jan-16 4.0000
Feb-16 5.2200
Mar-16 7.3600
Apr-16 10.1500
May-16 9.5600
Jun-16 11.9500
Jul-16 14.6500
Aug-16 12.3600
Sep-16 13.8400
Oct-16 13.2900
Nov-16 11.1700
Dec-16 11.2800
Jan-17 13.7900
Feb-17 12.3000
Mar-17 12.0400
Apr-17 12.0100
May-17 12.4400
Jun-17 11.5000
Jul-17 12.2400
Aug-17 13.4300
Sep-17 12.7900
Oct-17 13.7900
Nov-17 13.9900
Dec-17 14.0800
Jan-18 15.4300
Feb-18 15.5500
Mar-18 15.2300
Apr-18 15.9500
May-18 15.4700
Jun-18 13.6300
Jul-18 13.7400
Aug-18 12.5900
Sep-18 13.4100
Oct-18 13.8400
Nov-18 14.1400
Dec-18 16.2200
Jan-19 15.6500
Feb-19 16.6400
Mar-19 17.2800
Apr-19 16.2100
May-19 15.1700 50.0000
Jun-19 16.6700 45.0000
Jul-19 15.2400 40.0000
Aug-19 15.2400 35.0000
Sep-19 15.1800 30.0000
Oct-19 15.3400 25.0000
Nov-19 15.3700 20.0000
Dec-19 15.1000 15.0000
Jan-20 12.9300 10.0000
Feb-20 11.1500 5.0000
Mar-20 7.2900 0.0000
Apr-20 7.4900 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15
May-20 7.8500
Jun-20 9.1400
Jul-20 11.8600
Aug-20 14.0800
Sep-20 12.2200
Oct-20 12.2700
Nov-20 11.1000
Dec-20 12.1900
Jan-21 10.1800
Feb-21 11.0600
Mar-21 10.0300
Apr-21 9.7200
 BVN

ul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21
0 Jul-20 Jan-21
DESCOMPOSICÍON ADITIVA

Forecasting Enter
Decomposition, additive
Enter past
past demands
demands in in
the
the data
data area.
area. Do
Do not
not
change
change the
the time
time period
period
12 seasons numbers!
numbers!
1

Data ESTACIONAL SUAVIZADO

Period Demand (y) Time (x) Average Difference Seasonal Smoothed
Jan-11 41.0000 1 0.5796296296 40.42037037
Feb-11 46.6700 2 0.0525462963 46.617453704
Mar-11 42.9700 3 0.0312037037 42.938796296
Apr-11 41.6700 4 0.1831481481 41.486851852
May-11 44.1200 5 -0.422083333 44.542083333
Jun-11 37.9800 6 -0.354490741 38.334490741
Jul-11 40.9400 7 41.528333333 41.6075 -0.6675 -0.1945 41.1345
Aug-11 46.8300 8 41.686666667 41.414166667 5.4158333333 0.5302916667 46.299708333
Sep-11 37.7400 9 41.141666667 41.030833333 -3.290833333 -0.115083333 37.855083333
Oct-11 40.9300 10 40.92 40.903333333 0.0266666667 0.3492916667 40.580708333
Nov-11 39.1500 11 40.886666667 40.679166667 -1.529166667 -0.62662037 39.77662037
Dec-11 38.3400 12 40.471666667 40.471666667 -2.131666667 0.0803703704 38.25962963
Jan-12 42.9000 13 40.471666667 40.283333333 2.6166666667 0.5796296296 42.32037037
Feb-12 40.1300 14 40.095 39.587916667 0.5420833333 0.0525462963 40.077453704
Mar-12 40.3100 15 39.080833333 39.131666667 1.1783333333 0.0312037037 40.278796296
Apr-12 41.2700 16 39.1825 38.967083333 2.3029166667 0.1831481481 41.086851852
May-12 39.1400 17 38.751666667 38.485833333 0.6541666667 -0.422083333 39.562083333
Jun-12 37.9800 18 38.22 38.120416667 -0.140416667 -0.354490741 38.334490741
Jul-12 36.4200 19 38.020833333 37.46625 -1.04625 -0.1945 36.6145
Aug-12 34.6600 20 36.911666667 36.307083333 -1.647083333 0.5302916667 34.129708333
Sep-12 38.9600 21 35.7025 35.104583333 3.8554166667 -0.115083333 39.075083333
Oct-12 35.7600 22 34.506666667 33.62125 2.13875 0.3492916667 35.410708333
Nov-12 32.7700 23 32.735833333 31.852916667 0.9170833333 -0.62662037 33.39662037
Dec-12 35.9500 24 30.97 30.0025 5.9475 0.0803703704 35.86962963
Jan-13 29.5900 25 29.035 28.113333333 1.4766666667 0.5796296296 29.01037037
Feb-13 25.6200 26 27.191666667 26.27375 -0.65375 0.0525462963 25.567453704
Mar-13 25.9600 27 25.355833333 24.220416667 1.7395833333 0.0312037037 25.928796296
Apr-13 20.0200 28 23.085 22.199166667 -2.179166667 0.1831481481 19.836851852
May-13 17.9500 29 21.313333333 20.439583333 -2.489583333 -0.422083333 18.372083333
Jun-13 14.7600 30 19.565833333 18.535416667 -3.775416667 -0.354490741 15.114490741
 Jul-13 14.3000 31 17.505 16.78875 -2.48875 -0.1945 14.4945
Aug-13 12.6300 32 16.0725 15.53 -2.9 0.5302916667 12.099708333
Sep-13 11.7100 33 14.9875 14.429583333 -2.719583333 -0.115083333 11.825083333
Oct-13 14.5000 34 13.871666667 13.579166667 0.9208333333 0.3492916667 14.150708333
Nov-13 11.8000 35 13.286666667 12.984166667 -1.184166667 -0.62662037 12.42662037
Dec-13 11.2200 36 12.681666667 12.55875 -1.33875 0.0803703704 11.13962963
Jan-14 12.4000 37 12.435833333 12.327916667 0.0720833333 0.5796296296 11.82037037
Feb-14 12.6000 38 12.22 12.300416667 0.2995833333 0.0525462963 12.547453704
Mar-14 12.5700 39 12.380833333 12.375416667 0.1945833333 0.0312037037 12.538796296
Apr-14 13.0000 40 12.37 12.149166667 0.8508333333 0.1831481481 12.816851852
May-14 10.6900 41 11.928333333 11.822083333 -1.132083333 -0.422083333 11.112083333
Jun-14 11.8100 42 11.715833333 11.646666667 0.1633333333 -0.354490741 12.164490741
Jul-14 11.7100 43 11.5775 11.536666667 0.1733333333 -0.1945 11.9045
Aug-14 14.5600 44 11.495833333 11.453333333 3.1066666667 0.5302916667 14.029708333
Sep-14 11.5800 45 11.410833333 11.309166667 0.2708333333 -0.115083333 11.695083333
Oct-14 9.2000 46 11.2075 11.131666667 -1.931666667 0.3492916667 8.8507083333
Nov-14 9.2500 47 11.055833333 11.077083333 -1.827083333 -0.62662037 9.8766203704
Dec-14 9.5600 48 11.098333333 11.03875 -1.47875 0.0803703704 9.4796296296
Jan-15 11.4200 49 10.979166667 10.787916667 0.6320833333 0.5796296296 10.84037037
Feb-15 11.5800 50 10.596666667 10.253333333 1.3266666667 0.0525462963 11.527453704
Mar-15 10.1300 51 9.91 9.6758333333 0.4541666667 0.0312037037 10.098796296
Apr-15 11.1800 52 9.4416666667 9.3254166667 1.8545833333 0.1831481481 10.996851852
May-15 11.2000 53 9.2091666667 9.02125 2.17875 -0.422083333 11.622083333
Jun-15 10.3800 54 8.8333333333 8.6133333333 1.7666666667 -0.354490741 10.734490741
Jul-15 7.1200 55 8.3933333333 8.0841666667 -0.964166667 -0.1945 7.3145
Aug-15 6.3200 56 7.775 7.51 -1.19 0.5302916667 5.7897083333
Sep-15 5.9600 57 7.245 7.1295833333 -1.169583333 -0.115083333 6.0750833333
Oct-15 6.4100 58 7.0141666667 6.97125 -0.56125 0.3492916667 6.0607083333
Nov-15 4.7400 59 6.9283333333 6.86 -2.12 -0.62662037 5.3666203704
Dec-15 4.2800 60 6.7916666667 6.8570833333 -2.577083333 0.0803703704 4.1996296296
Jan-16 4.0000 61 6.9225 7.23625 -3.23625 0.5796296296 3.4203703704
Feb-16 5.2200 62 7.55 7.8016666667 -2.581666667 0.0525462963 5.1674537037
Mar-16 7.3600 63 8.0533333333 8.3816666667 -1.021666667 0.0312037037 7.3287962963
Apr-16 10.1500 64 8.71 8.9966666667 1.1533333333 0.1831481481 9.9668518519
May-16 9.5600 65 9.2833333333 9.55125 0.00875 -0.422083333 9.9820833333
Jun-16 11.9500 66 9.8191666667 10.110833333 1.8391666667 -0.354490741 12.304490741
Jul-16 14.6500 67 10.4025 10.810416667 3.8395833333 -0.1945 14.8445
Aug-16 12.3600 68 11.218333333 11.513333333 0.8466666667 0.5302916667 11.829708333
Sep-16 13.8400 69 11.808333333 12.003333333 1.8366666667 -0.115083333 13.955083333
Oct-16 13.2900 70 12.198333333 12.275833333 1.0141666667 0.3492916667 12.940708333
Nov-16 11.1700 71 12.353333333 12.473333333 -1.303333333 -0.62662037 11.79662037
Dec-16 11.2800 72 12.593333333 12.574583333 -1.294583333 0.0803703704 11.19962963
Jan-17 13.7900 73 12.555833333 12.455416667 1.3345833333 0.5796296296 13.21037037
Feb-17 12.3000 74 12.355 12.399583333 -0.099583333 0.0525462963 12.247453704
Mar-17 12.0400 75 12.444166667 12.400416667 -0.360416667 0.0312037037 12.008796296
Apr-17 12.0100 76 12.356666667 12.3775 -0.3675 0.1831481481 11.826851852
May-17 12.4400 77 12.398333333 12.515833333 -0.075833333 -0.422083333 12.862083333
Jun-17 11.5000 78 12.633333333 12.75 -1.25 -0.354490741 11.854490741
Jul-17 12.2400 79 12.866666667 12.935 -0.695 -0.1945 12.4345
Aug-17 13.4300 80 13.003333333 13.13875 0.29125 0.5302916667 12.899708333
Sep-17 12.7900 81 13.274166667 13.407083333 -0.617083333 -0.115083333 12.905083333
Oct-17 13.7900 82 13.54 13.704166667 0.0858333333 0.3492916667 13.440708333
Nov-17 13.9900 83 13.868333333 13.994583333 -0.004583333 -0.62662037 14.61662037
Dec-17 14.0800 84 14.120833333 14.209583333 -0.129583333 0.0803703704 13.99962963
Jan-18 15.4300 85 14.298333333 14.360833333 1.0691666667 0.5796296296 14.85037037
Feb-18 15.5500 86 14.423333333 14.388333333 1.1616666667 0.0525462963 15.497453704
Mar-18 15.2300 87 14.353333333 14.379166667 0.8508333333 0.0312037037 15.198796296
Apr-18 15.9500 88 14.405 14.407083333 1.5429166667 0.1831481481 15.766851852
May-18 15.4700 89 14.409166667 14.415416667 1.0545833333 -0.422083333 15.892083333
Jun-18 13.6300 90 14.421666667 14.510833333 -0.880833333 -0.354490741 13.984490741
Jul-18 13.7400 91 14.6 14.609166667 -0.869166667 -0.1945 13.9345
Aug-18 12.5900 92 14.618333333 14.66375 -2.07375 0.5302916667 12.059708333
Sep-18 13.4100 93 14.709166667 14.794583333 -1.384583333 -0.115083333 13.525083333
Oct-18 13.8400 94 14.88 14.890833333 -1.050833333 0.3492916667 13.490708333
Nov-18 14.1400 95 14.901666667 14.889166667 -0.749166667 -0.62662037 14.76662037
Dec-18 16.2200 96 14.876666667 15.003333333 1.2166666667 0.0803703704 16.13962963
Jan-19 15.6500 97 15.13 15.1925 0.4575 0.5796296296 15.07037037
Feb-19 16.6400 98 15.255 15.365416667 1.2745833333 0.0525462963 16.587453704
Mar-19 17.2800 99 15.475833333 15.549583333 1.7304166667 0.0312037037 17.248796296
Apr-19 16.2100 100 15.623333333 15.685833333 0.5241666667 0.1831481481 16.026851852
May-19 15.1700 101 15.748333333 15.799583333 -0.629583333 -0.422083333 15.592083333
Jun-19 16.6700 102 15.850833333 15.804166667 0.8658333333 -0.354490741 17.024490741
Jul-19 15.2400 103 15.7575 15.644166667 -0.404166667 -0.1945 15.4345
Aug-19 15.2400 104 15.530833333 15.302083333 -0.062083333 0.5302916667 14.709708333
Sep-19 15.1800 105 15.073333333 14.657083333 0.5229166667 -0.115083333 15.295083333
Oct-19 15.3400 106 14.240833333 13.8775 1.4625 0.3492916667 14.990708333
Nov-19 15.3700 107 13.514166667 13.209166667 2.1608333333 -0.62662037 15.99662037
Dec-19 15.1000 108 12.904166667 12.590416667 2.5095833333 0.0803703704 15.01962963
Jan-20 12.9300 109 12.276666667 12.135833333 0.7941666667 0.5796296296 12.35037037
Feb-20 11.1500 110 11.995 11.946666667 -0.796666667 0.0525462963 11.097453704
Mar-20 7.2900 111 11.898333333 11.775 -4.485 0.0312037037 7.2587962963
Apr-20 7.4900 112 11.651666667 11.52375 -4.03375 0.1831481481 7.3068518519
May-20 7.8500 113 11.395833333 11.217916667 -3.367916667 -0.422083333 8.2720833333
Jun-20 9.1400 114 11.04 10.91875 -1.77875 -0.354490741 9.4944907407
Jul-20 11.8600 115 10.7975 10.682916667 1.1770833333 -0.1945 12.0545
Aug-20 14.0800 116 10.568333333 10.564583333 3.5154166667 0.5302916667 13.549708333
 Sep-20 12.2200 117 10.560833333 10.675 1.545 -0.115083333 12.335083333
Oct-20 12.2700 118 10.789166667 10.882083333 1.3879166667 0.3492916667 11.920708333
Nov-20 11.1000 119 10.9750 -0.62662037 11.72662037
Dec-20 12.1900 120 0.0803703704 12.10962963
Jan-21 10.1800 121 0.5796296296 9.6003703704
Feb-21 11.0600 122 0.0525462963 11.007453704
Mar-21 10.0300 123 0.0312037037 9.9987962963
Apr-21 9.7200 124 0.1831481481 9.5368518519

Average Intercept 31.282458785

Slope -0.214506897

Ratios
Season 1 Season 2 Season 3 Season 4 Season 5 Season 6 Season 7
-0.6675
2.6166666667 0.542083 1.1783333333 2.3029166667 0.6541666667 -0.140416667 -1.04625
1.4766666667 -0.65375 1.7395833333 -2.179166667 -2.489583333 -3.775416667 -2.48875
0.0720833333 0.299583 0.1945833333 0.8508333333 -1.132083333 0.1633333333 0.1733333333
0.6320833333 1.326667 0.4541666667 1.8545833333 2.17875 1.7666666667 -0.964166667
-3.23625 -2.58167 -1.021666667 1.1533333333 0.00875 1.8391666667 3.8395833333
1.3345833333 -0.09958 -0.360416667 -0.3675 -0.075833333 -1.25 -0.695
1.0691666667 1.161667 0.8508333333 1.5429166667 1.0545833333 -0.880833333 -0.869166667
0.4575 1.274583 1.7304166667 0.5241666667 -0.629583333 0.8658333333 -0.404166667
0.7941666667 -0.79667 -4.485 -4.03375 -3.367916667 -1.77875 1.1770833333

Average 0.5796296296 0.052546 0.0312037037 0.1831481481 -0.422083333 -0.354490741 -0.1945

Forecasts
Period Unadjusted Seasonal Adjusted
125 4.4690966212 -0.42208 4.0470132879 May-21
126 4.2545897239 -0.35449 3.9000989832 Jun-21
127 4.0400828266 -0.1945 3.8455828266 Jul-21
128 3.8255759293 0.530292 4.3558675959 Aug-21
129 3.611069032 -0.11508 3.4959856986 Sep-21
130 3.3965621347 0.349292 3.7458538013 Oct-21
131 3.1820552373 -0.62662 2.555434867 Nov-21
132 2.96754834 0.08037 3.0479187104 Dec-21
133 2.7530414427 0.57963 3.3326710724 Jan-22
134 2.5385345454 0.052546 2.5910808417 Feb-22
135 2.3240276481 0.031204 2.3552313518 Mar-22
136 2.1095207508 0.183148 2.2926688989 Apr-22
 45

40

35

30
2 3
25
ALEATORIO
20

Forecasts and 15
TENDENCIA ESTIMADO Error Analysis
Unadjusted Adjusted Error |Error| Error^2 Abs Pct Err 10

31.067951888 31.647581517 9.3524184827 9.3524184827 87.467731475 22.81% 5

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37
30.85344499 30.905991287 15.764008713 15.764008713 248.50397071 33.78%
30.638938093 30.670141797 12.299858203 12.299858203 151.28651182 28.62%
30.424431196 30.607579344 11.062420656 11.062420656 122.37715077 26.55%
30.209924298 29.787840965 14.332159035 14.332159035 205.4107826 32.48%
29.995417401 29.64092666 8.3390733396 8.3390733396 69.540144163 21.96% 45

29.780910504 29.586410504 11.353589496 11.353589496 128.90399445 27.73% 40

29.566403607 30.096695273 16.733304727 16.733304727 280.00348708 35.73% 35
29.351896709 29.236813376 8.5031866241 8.5031866241 72.304182765 22.53% 30
29.137389812 29.486681479 11.443318521 11.443318521 130.94953878 27.96% 25
28.922882915 28.296262544 10.853737456 10.853737456 117.80361676 27.72%
20
28.708376017 28.788746388 9.5512536123 9.5512536123 91.226445567 24.91%
15
28.49386912 29.07349875 13.82650125 13.82650125 191.17213683 32.23%
28.279362223 28.331908519 11.798091481 11.798091481 139.1949626 29.40% 10

28.064855325 28.096059029 12.213940971 12.213940971 149.18035404 30.30% 5

27.850348428 28.033496576 13.236503424 13.236503424 175.20502289 32.07% 0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33
27.635841531 27.213758197 11.926241803 11.926241803 142.23524353 30.47%
27.421334633 27.066843893 10.913156107 10.913156107 119.09697622 28.73%
27.206827736 27.012327736 9.4076722639 9.4076722639 88.504297425 25.83%
26.992320839 27.522612505 7.1373874945 7.1373874945 50.942300247 20.59%
26.777813941 26.662730608 12.297269392 12.297269392 151.2228345 31.56%
26.563307044 26.912598711 8.8474012892 8.8474012892 78.276509571 24.74% 50.0000
26.348800147 25.722179776 7.0478202235 7.0478202235 49.671769903 21.51% 45.0000
26.13429325 26.21466362 9.7353363801 9.7353363801 94.776774433 27.08% 40.0000
25.919786352 26.499415982 3.0905840181 3.0905840181 9.5517095731 10.44% 35.0000
25.705279455 25.757825751 -0.137825751 0.1378257512 0.0189959377 00.54% 30.0000
25.490772558 25.521976261 0.4380237387 0.4380237387 0.1918647956 01.69% 25.0000
25.27626566 25.459413808 -5.439413808 5.4394138085 29.58722258 27.17% 20.0000
25.061758763 24.63967543 -6.68967543 6.6896754297 44.751757354 37.27% 15.0000
24.847251866 24.492761125 -9.732761125 9.732761125 94.726639115 65.94%
10.0000
5.0000
0.0000
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan
 25.0000
20.0000
15.0000
10.0000
24.632744968 24.438244968 -10.13824497 10.138244968 102.78401104 70.90%
5.0000
24.418238071 24.948529738 -12.31852974 12.318529738 151.7461749 97.53%
0.0000
24.203731174 24.08864784 -12.37864784 12.37864784 153.23092236 105.71% Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan
23.989224276 24.338515943 -9.838515943 9.8385159431 96.796395963 67.85%
23.774717379 23.148097009 -11.34809701 11.348097009 128.77930572 96.17%
23.560210482 23.640580852 -12.42058085 12.420580852 154.27082871 110.70%
23.345703585 23.925333214 -11.52533321 11.525333214 132.8333057 92.95%
23.131196687 23.183742984 -10.58374298 10.583742984 112.01561554 84.00%
0.8
22.91668979 22.947893494 -10.37789349 10.377893494 107.70067336 82.56%
0.6
22.702182893 22.885331041 -9.885331041 9.8853310407 97.719769785 76.04%
22.487675995 22.065592662 -11.37559266 11.375592662 129.40410841 106.41% 0.4
22.273169098 21.918678357 -10.10867836 10.108678357 102.18537813 85.59% 0.2
22.058662201 21.864162201 -10.1541622 10.154162201 103.10701 86.71%
0
21.844155303 22.37444697 -7.81444697 7.81444697 61.065581447 53.67% Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
-0.2
21.629648406 21.514565073 -9.934565073 9.9345650727 98.695583184 85.79%
21.415141509 21.764433175 -12.56443318 12.564433175 157.86498102 136.57% -0.4
21.200634611 20.574014241 -11.32401424 11.324014241 128.23329853 122.42% -0.6
20.986127714 21.066498084 -11.50649808 11.506498084 132.39949817 120.36%
-0.8
20.771620817 21.351250446 -9.931250446 9.9312504464 98.62973543 86.96%
20.557113919 20.609660216 -9.029660216 9.0296602158 81.534763612 77.98%
20.342607022 20.373810726 -10.24381073 10.243810726 104.93565819 101.12%
20.128100125 20.311248273 -9.131248273 9.131248273 83.379695023 81.67%
19.913593228 19.491509894 -8.291509894 8.2915098942 68.749136326 74.03%
19.69908633 19.34459559 -8.96459559 8.9645955895 80.363974083 86.36% 50
19.484579433 19.290079433 -12.17007943 12.170079433 148.1108334 170.93% 45
19.270072536 19.800364202 -13.4803642 13.480364202 181.72021903 213.30% 40
19.055565638 18.940482305 -12.9804823 12.980482305 168.49292087 217.79% 35
18.841058741 19.190350408 -12.78035041 12.780350408 163.33735654 199.38% 30
18.626551844 17.999931473 -13.25993147 13.259931473 175.82578268 279.75% 25
20
18.412044946 18.492415317 -14.21241532 14.212415317 201.99274914 332.07%
15
18.197538049 18.777167679 -14.77716768 14.777167679 218.3646846 369.43%
10
17.983031152 18.035577448 -12.81557745 12.815577448 164.23902533 245.51%
5
17.768524254 17.799727958 -10.43972796 10.439727958 108.98791984 141.84% 0
17.554017357 17.737165505 -7.587165505 7.5871655053 57.565080405 74.75% Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13

17.33951046 16.917427126 -7.357427126 7.3574271265 54.131733922 76.96%

17.125003563 16.770512822 -4.820512822 4.8205128218 23.237343865 40.34%
16.910496665 16.715996665 -2.065996665 2.0659966652 4.2683422207 14.10%
16.695989768 17.226281435 -4.866281435 4.8662814346 23.680695 39.37%
16.481482871 16.366399537 -2.526399537 2.5263995373 6.3826946218 18.25%
35
16.266975973 16.61626764 -3.32626764 3.3262676399 11.064056413 25.03%
16.052469076 15.425848706 -4.255848706 4.2558487056 18.112248205 38.10% 30
15.837962179 15.918332549 -4.638332549 4.638332549 21.514128835 41.12%
25
15.623455281 16.203084911 -2.413084911 2.413084911 5.8229787876 17.50%
20

15

10
 30

25

15.408948384 15.46149468 -3.16149468 3.1614946803 9.9950486138 25.70% 20

15.194441487 15.22564519 -3.18564519 3.1856451904 10.148335279 26.46% 15

14.979934589 15.163082738 -3.153082738 3.1530827376 9.9419307499 26.25%
10
14.765427692 14.343344359 -1.903344359 1.9033443588 3.6227197481 15.30%
14.550920795 14.196430054 -2.696430054 2.6964300541 7.2707350364 23.45% 5
14.336413897 14.141913897 -1.901913897 1.9019138975 3.6172764734 15.54% 0
14.121907 14.652198667 -1.222198667 1.2221986668 1.4937695812 09.10% Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13

13.907400103 13.79231677 -1.00231677 1.0023167695 1.0046389065 07.84%

13.692893206 14.042184872 -0.252184872 0.2521848722 0.0635972098 01.83%
13.478386308 12.851765938 1.1382340621 1.1382340621 1.2955767802 08.14%
13.263879411 13.344249781 0.7357502187 0.7357502187 0.5413283843 05.23%
13.049372514 13.629002143 1.8009978567 1.8009978567 3.24359328 11.67%
20
12.834865616 12.887411913 2.6625880874 2.6625880874 7.0893753231 17.12%
15
12.620358719 12.651562423 2.5784375773 2.5784375773 6.64834034 16.93%
10
12.405851822 12.58899997 3.3610000302 3.3610000302 11.296321203 21.07%
12.191344924 11.769261591 3.700738409 3.700738409 13.695464771 23.92% 5

11.976838027 11.622347286 2.0076527137 2.0076527137 4.0306694187 14.73% 0

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
11.76233113 11.56783113 2.1721688702 2.1721688702 4.7183176008 15.81% -5
11.547824232 12.078115899 0.5118841009 0.5118841009 0.2620253327 04.07% -10
11.333317335 11.218234002 2.1917659982 2.1917659982 4.8038381908 16.34%
-15
11.118810438 11.468102104 2.3718978955 2.3718978955 5.6258996267 17.14%
-20
10.904303541 10.27768317 3.8623168299 3.8623168299 14.917491294 27.31%
10.689796643 10.770167014 5.4498329864 5.4498329864 29.70067958 33.60%
10.475289746 11.054919376 4.5950806245 4.5950806245 21.114765945 29.36%
10.260782849 10.313329145 6.3266708551 6.3266708551 40.026764109 38.02%
10.046275951 10.077479655 7.202520345 7.202520345 51.87629932 41.68%
9.831769054 10.014917202 6.1950827979 6.1950827979 38.379050873 38.22% 50.0000
9.6172621567 9.1951788233 5.9748211767 5.9748211767 35.698488093 39.39% 45.0000
9.4027552593 9.0482645186 7.6217354814 7.6217354814 58.090851748 45.72% 40.0000
9.188248362 8.993748362 6.246251638 6.246251638 39.015659525 40.99% 35.0000
30.0000
8.9737414647 9.5040331314 5.7359668686 5.7359668686 32.901315918 37.64%
25.0000
8.7592345674 8.6441512341 6.5358487659 6.5358487659 42.717319091 43.06%
20.0000
8.5447276701 8.8940193368 6.4459806632 6.4459806632 41.550666711 42.02%
15.0000
8.3302207728 7.7036004024 7.6663995976 7.6663995976 58.77368279 49.88% 10.0000
8.1157138755 8.1960842459 6.9039157541 6.9039157541 47.66405274 45.72% 5.0000
7.9012069782 8.4808366078 4.4491633922 4.4491633922 19.79505489 34.41% 0.0000
7.6867000809 7.7392463772 3.4107536228 3.4107536228 11.633240276 30.59% Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-1
7.4721931836 7.5033968873 -0.213396887 0.2133968873 0.0455382315 02.93%
7.2576862862 7.4408344344 0.0491655656 0.0491655656 0.0024172528 00.66%
7.0431793889 6.6210960556 1.2289039444 1.2289039444 1.5102049046 15.65%
6.8286724916 6.4741817509 2.6658182491 2.6658182491 7.1065869373 29.17%
6.6141655943 6.4196655943 5.4403344057 5.4403344057 29.597238446 45.87%
6.399658697 6.9299503637 7.1500496363 7.1500496363 51.123209802 50.78%
6.1851517997 6.0700684664 6.1499315336 6.1499315336 37.821657868 50.33%
5.9706449024 6.319936569 5.950063431 5.950063431 35.403254832 48.49%
5.7561380051 5.1295176347 5.9704823653 5.9704823653 35.646659674 53.79%
5.5416311078 5.6220014781 6.5679985219 6.5679985219 43.138604583 53.88%
5.3271242104 5.9067538401 4.2732461599 4.2732461599 18.260632743 41.98%
5.1126173131 5.1651636094 5.8948363906 5.8948363906 34.749096072 53.30%
4.8981104158 4.9293141195 5.1006858805 5.1006858805 26.016996451 50.85%
4.6836035185 4.8667516667 4.8532483333 4.8532483333 23.554019385 49.93%
Total -1.36424E-12 905.30896068 8777.6014287 7044.80%
-1.1002E-14 7.3008787151 70.787108296 56.81%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 8.8925525216

Season 8 Season 9 Season 10 Season 11 Season 12

5.4158333333 -3.290833333 0.0266666667 -1.529166667 -2.131666667
-1.647083333 3.8554166667 2.13875 0.9170833333 5.9475
-2.9 -2.719583333 0.9208333333 -1.184166667 -1.33875
3.1066666667 0.2708333333 -1.931666667 -1.827083333 -1.47875
-1.19 -1.169583333 -0.56125 -2.12 -2.577083333
0.8466666667 1.8366666667 1.0141666667 -1.303333333 -1.294583333
0.29125 -0.617083333 0.0858333333 -0.004583333 -0.129583333
-2.07375 -1.384583333 -1.050833333 -0.749166667 1.2166666667
-0.062083333 0.5229166667 1.4625 2.1608333333 2.5095833333
3.5154166667 1.545 1.3879166667

0.5302916667 -0.115083333 0.3492916667 -0.62662037 0.0803703704

 D
45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 101105109113

E
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 101 105 109

Cotizaciones de acciones
Enero 2011- Abril2021 ORIGINAL
50.0000
45.0000
40.0000
35.0000
30.0000
25.0000
20.0000
15.0000
10.0000
5.0000
0.0000
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21
25.0000
20.0000
15.0000
10.0000
5.0000
0.0000
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21

Cotizaciones de acciones
ESTACIONAL
0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21
-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

Cotizaciones de acciones
SUAVIZADO
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21

Cotizaciones de acciones
TENDENCIA
35

30

25

20

15

10
 30

25

20

15

10

0
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21

Cotizaciones de acciones
ALEATORIO
20
15
10
5
0
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21
-5
-10
-15
-20

Cotizaciones de acciones
Datos reales y pronosticos
0.0000
5.0000
0.0000
5.0000
0.0000
5.0000
0.0000
5.0000
0.0000
5.0000
0.0000
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan

Demand (y) Adjusted

 ESTIMADO
Period Demand (y) Adjusted
Jan-11 41.0000 31.647581517
Feb-11 46.6700 30.905991287
Mar-11 42.9700 30.670141797
Apr-11 41.6700 30.607579344
May-11 44.1200 29.787840965
Jun-11 37.9800 29.64092666

Jul-11 40.9400 29.586410504

Aug-11 46.8300 30.096695273
Sep-11 37.7400 29.236813376
Oct-11 40.9300 29.486681479
Nov-11 39.1500 28.296262544
Dec-11 38.3400 28.788746388
Jan-12 42.9000 29.07349875
Feb-12 40.1300 28.331908519
Mar-12 40.3100 28.096059029
Apr-12 41.2700 28.033496576
May-12 39.1400 27.213758197
Jun-12 37.9800 27.066843893
Jul-12 36.4200 27.012327736
Aug-12 34.6600 27.522612505
Sep-12 38.9600 26.662730608
Oct-12 35.7600 26.912598711
Nov-12 32.7700 25.722179776
Dec-12 35.9500 26.21466362
Jan-13 29.5900 26.499415982
Feb-13 25.6200 25.757825751
Mar-13 25.9600 25.521976261
Apr-13 20.0200 25.459413808
May-13 17.9500 24.63967543
Jun-13 14.7600 24.492761125
Jul-13 14.3000 24.438244968
Aug-13 12.6300 24.948529738
Sep-13 11.7100 24.08864784
Oct-13 14.5000 24.338515943
Nov-13 11.8000 23.148097009
Dec-13 11.2200 23.640580852
Jan-14 12.4000 23.925333214
Feb-14 12.6000 23.183742984

ul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21

 Mar-14 12.5700 22.947893494
Apr-14 13.0000 22.885331041
ul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 May-14 10.6900 22.065592662
Jun-14 11.8100 21.918678357
Jul-14 11.7100 21.864162201
Aug-14 14.5600 22.37444697
Sep-14 11.5800 21.514565073
Oct-14 9.2000 21.764433175
Nov-14 9.2500 20.574014241
Dec-14 9.5600 21.066498084
Jan-15 11.4200 21.351250446
Feb-15 11.5800 20.609660216
Mar-15 10.1300 20.373810726
ul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Apr-15 11.1800 20.311248273
May-15 11.2000 19.491509894
Jun-15 10.3800 19.34459559
Jul-15 7.1200 19.290079433
Aug-15 6.3200 19.800364202
Sep-15 5.9600 18.940482305
Oct-15 6.4100 19.190350408
Nov-15 4.7400 17.999931473
Dec-15 4.2800 18.492415317
Jan-16 4.0000 18.777167679
Feb-16 5.2200 18.035577448
Mar-16 7.3600 17.799727958
Apr-16 10.1500 17.737165505
May-16 9.5600 16.917427126
Jun-16 11.9500 16.770512822
Jul-16 14.6500 16.715996665
Aug-16 12.3600 17.226281435
Sep-16 13.8400 16.366399537
Oct-16 13.2900 16.61626764
Nov-16 11.1700 15.425848706
ul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Dec-16 11.2800 15.918332549
Jan-17 13.7900 16.203084911
Feb-17 12.3000 15.46149468
Mar-17 12.0400 15.22564519
Apr-17 12.0100 15.163082738
May-17 12.4400 14.343344359
Jun-17 11.5000 14.196430054
Jul-17 12.2400 14.141913897
Aug-17 13.4300 14.652198667
Sep-17 12.7900 13.79231677
 Oct-17 13.7900 14.042184872
Nov-17 13.9900 12.851765938
Dec-17 14.0800 13.344249781
Jan-18 15.4300 13.629002143
Feb-18 15.5500 12.887411913
Mar-18 15.2300 12.651562423
l-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Apr-18 15.9500 12.58899997
May-18 15.4700 11.769261591
Jun-18 13.6300 11.622347286
Jul-18 13.7400 11.56783113
Aug-18 12.5900 12.078115899
Sep-18 13.4100 11.218234002
Oct-18 13.8400 11.468102104
Nov-18 14.1400 10.27768317
Dec-18 16.2200 10.770167014
Jan-19 15.6500 11.054919376
Feb-19 16.6400 10.313329145
Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21
Mar-19 17.2800 10.077479655
Apr-19 16.2100 10.014917202
May-19 15.1700 9.1951788233
Jun-19 16.6700 9.0482645186
Jul-19 15.2400 8.993748362
Aug-19 15.2400 9.5040331314
Sep-19 15.1800 8.6441512341
Oct-19 15.3400 8.8940193368
Nov-19 15.3700 7.7036004024
Dec-19 15.1000 8.1960842459
Jan-20 12.9300 8.4808366078
Feb-20 11.1500 7.7392463772
Mar-20 7.2900 7.5033968873
Apr-20 7.4900 7.4408344344
May-20 7.8500 6.6210960556
Jun-20 9.1400 6.4741817509
Jul-20 11.8600 6.4196655943
Aug-20 14.0800 6.9299503637
Sep-20 12.2200 6.0700684664
an-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Oct-20 12.2700 6.319936569
Nov-20 11.1000 5.1295176347
Dec-20 12.1900 5.6220014781
Jan-21 10.1800 5.9067538401
Feb-21 11.0600 5.1651636094
Mar-21 10.0300 4.9293141195
Apr-21 9.7200 4.8667516667
May-21 4.0470132879
Jun-21 3.9000989832
Jul-21 3.8455828266
Aug-21 4.3558675959
Sep-21 3.4959856986
Oct-21 3.7458538013
Nov-21 2.555434867
Dec-21 3.0479187104
Jan-22 3.3326710724
Feb-22 2.5910808417
Mar-22 2.3552313518
Apr-22 2.2926688989
 DESCOMPOSICIÓN MULTIPLICATIVA

Enter
Enter past
past Decomposition,
Forecasting demands
multiplicative
demands in in
the
the data
data area.
area.
Do
Do not
not change
change
12 seasons the
the time
time period
period
numbers!
numbers! 1

Data ESTACIONAL
Period Demand (y) Time (x) Average Ratio Seasonal
Jan-11 41.0000 1 1.0013162078
Feb-11 46.6700 2 0.9889571948
Mar-11 42.9700 3 0.9781335646
Apr-11 41.6700 4 1.013202059
May-11 44.1200 5 0.974320851
Jun-11 37.9800 6 0.9918665735
Jul-11 40.9400 7 41.528333333 41.6075 0.9839572193 1.002984978
Aug-11 46.8300 8 41.686666667 41.414166667 1.1307724812 1.0294444738
Sep-11 37.7400 9 41.141666667 41.030833333 0.9197960883 0.9894858134
Oct-11 40.9300 10 40.92 40.903333333 1.0006519436 1.0129275911
Nov-11 39.1500 11 40.886666667 40.679166667 0.9624090956 0.9371635009
Dec-11 38.3400 12 40.471666667 40.471666667 0.9473294074 0.966391359
Jan-12 42.9000 13 40.471666667 40.283333333 1.0649565577 1.0013162078
Feb-12 40.1300 14 40.095 39.587916667 1.0136931513 0.9889571948
Mar-12 40.3100 15 39.080833333 39.131666667 1.030112015 0.9781335646
Apr-12 41.2700 16 39.1825 38.967083333 1.0590990259 1.013202059
May-12 39.1400 17 38.751666667 38.485833333 1.0169975965 0.974320851
Jun-12 37.9800 18 38.22 38.120416667 0.9963164971 0.9918665735
Jul-12 36.4200 19 38.020833333 37.46625 0.9720748674 1.002984978
Aug-12 34.6600 20 36.911666667 36.307083333 0.9546346558 1.0294444738
Sep-12 38.9600 21 35.7025 35.104583333 1.1098265896 0.9894858134
Oct-12 35.7600 22 34.506666667 33.62125 1.0636130423 1.0129275911
Nov-12 32.7700 23 32.735833333 31.852916667 1.0287911887 0.9371635009
Dec-12 35.9500 24 30.97 30.0025 1.1982334805 0.966391359
Jan-13 29.5900 25 29.035 28.113333333 1.0525254921 1.0013162078
Feb-13 25.6200 26 27.191666667 26.27375 0.9751177506 0.9889571948
Mar-13 25.9600 27 25.355833333 24.220416667 1.0718230143 0.9781335646
Apr-13 20.0200 28 23.085 22.199166667 0.9018356545 1.013202059
May-13 17.9500 29 21.313333333 20.439583333 0.8781979411 0.974320851
Jun-13 14.7600 30 19.565833333 18.535416667 0.7963133641 0.9918665735
Jul-13 14.3000 31 17.505 16.78875 0.8517608518 1.002984978
Aug-13 12.6300 32 16.0725 15.53 0.8132646491 1.0294444738
Sep-13 11.7100 33 14.9875 14.429583333 0.8115272444 0.9894858134
Oct-13 14.5000 34 13.871666667 13.579166667 1.0678122123 1.0129275911
Nov-13 11.8000 35 13.286666667 12.984166667 0.9087991785 0.9371635009
Dec-13 11.2200 36 12.681666667 12.55875 0.8934010152 0.966391359
Jan-14 12.4000 37 12.435833333 12.327916667 1.0058471626 1.0013162078
Feb-14 12.6000 38 12.22 12.300416667 1.0243555435 0.9889571948
Mar-14 12.5700 39 12.380833333 12.375416667 1.0157233763 0.9781335646
Apr-14 13.0000 40 12.37 12.149166667 1.0700322382 1.013202059
May-14 10.6900 41 11.928333333 11.822083333 0.9042399464 0.974320851
Jun-14 11.8100 42 11.715833333 11.646666667 1.0140240412 0.9918665735
Jul-14 11.7100 43 11.5775 11.536666667 1.0150245594 1.002984978
Aug-14 14.5600 44 11.495833333 11.453333333 1.2712456345 1.0294444738
Sep-14 11.5800 45 11.410833333 11.309166667 1.0239481247 0.9894858134
Oct-14 9.2000 46 11.2075 11.131666667 0.8264710286 1.0129275911
Nov-14 9.2500 47 11.055833333 11.077083333 0.8350573632 0.9371635009
Dec-14 9.5600 48 11.098333333 11.03875 0.8660400861 0.966391359
Jan-15 11.4200 49 10.979166667 10.787916667 1.0585917887 1.0013162078
Feb-15 11.5800 50 10.596666667 10.253333333 1.1293888166 0.9889571948
Mar-15 10.1300 51 9.91 9.6758333333 1.0469382482 0.9781335646
Apr-15 11.1800 52 9.4416666667 9.3254166667 1.1988740449 1.013202059
May-15 11.2000 53 9.2091666667 9.02125 1.2415130941 0.974320851
Jun-15 10.3800 54 8.8333333333 8.6133333333 1.2051083591 0.9918665735
Jul-15 7.1200 55 8.3933333333 8.0841666667 0.880733945 1.002984978
Aug-15 6.3200 56 7.775 7.51 0.8415446072 1.0294444738
Sep-15 5.9600 57 7.245 7.1295833333 0.8359534802 0.9894858134
Oct-15 6.4100 58 7.0141666667 6.97125 0.9194907656 1.0129275911
Nov-15 4.7400 59 6.9283333333 6.86 0.6909620991 0.9371635009
Dec-15 4.2800 60 6.7916666667 6.8570833333 0.6241720848 0.966391359
Jan-16 4.0000 61 6.9225 7.23625 0.5527724996 1.0013162078
Feb-16 5.2200 62 7.55 7.8016666667 0.6690878018 0.9889571948
Mar-16 7.3600 63 8.0533333333 8.3816666667 0.8781069795 0.9781335646
Apr-16 10.1500 64 8.71 8.9966666667 1.128195628 1.013202059
May-16 9.5600 65 9.2833333333 9.55125 1.0009161105 0.974320851
Jun-16 11.9500 66 9.8191666667 10.110833333 1.1819006017 0.9918665735
Jul-16 14.6500 67 10.4025 10.810416667 1.3551744074 1.002984978
Aug-16 12.3600 68 11.218333333 11.513333333 1.073537927 1.0294444738
Sep-16 13.8400 69 11.808333333 12.003333333 1.1530130519 0.9894858134
Oct-16 13.2900 70 12.198333333 12.275833333 1.0826148938 1.0129275911
Nov-16 11.1700 71 12.353333333 12.473333333 0.8955104222 0.9371635009
Dec-16 11.2800 72 12.593333333 12.574583333 0.8970476159 0.966391359
Jan-17 13.7900 73 12.555833333 12.455416667 1.1071488308 1.0013162078
Feb-17 12.3000 74 12.355 12.399583333 0.9919688162 0.9889571948
Mar-17 12.0400 75 12.444166667 12.400416667 0.9709351164 0.9781335646
Apr-17 12.0100 76 12.356666667 12.3775 0.9703090285 1.013202059
May-17 12.4400 77 12.398333333 12.515833333 0.9939410081 0.974320851
Jun-17 11.5000 78 12.633333333 12.75 0.9019607843 0.9918665735
Jul-17 12.2400 79 12.866666667 12.935 0.9462698106 1.002984978
Aug-17 13.4300 80 13.003333333 13.13875 1.0221672534 1.0294444738
Sep-17 12.7900 81 13.274166667 13.407083333 0.953973335 0.9894858134
Oct-17 13.7900 82 13.54 13.704166667 1.0062633019 1.0129275911
Nov-17 13.9900 83 13.868333333 13.994583333 0.9996724923 0.9371635009
Dec-17 14.0800 84 14.120833333 14.209583333 0.9908805677 0.966391359
Jan-18 15.4300 85 14.298333333 14.360833333 1.0744501828 1.0013162078
Feb-18 15.5500 86 14.423333333 14.388333333 1.080736708 0.9889571948
Mar-18 15.2300 87 14.353333333 14.379166667 1.0591712547 0.9781335646
Apr-18 15.9500 88 14.405 14.407083333 1.1070943112 1.013202059
May-18 15.4700 89 14.409166667 14.415416667 1.0731566321 0.974320851
Jun-18 13.6300 90 14.421666667 14.510833333 0.9392982255 0.9918665735
Jul-18 13.7400 91 14.6 14.609166667 0.9405053905 1.002984978
Aug-18 12.5900 92 14.618333333 14.66375 0.8585798312 1.0294444738
Sep-18 13.4100 93 14.709166667 14.794583333 0.90641282 0.9894858134
Oct-18 13.8400 94 14.88 14.890833333 0.9294308579 1.0129275911
Nov-18 14.1400 95 14.901666667 14.889166667 0.9496837746 0.9371635009
Dec-18 16.2200 96 14.876666667 15.003333333 1.0810930904 0.966391359
Jan-19 15.6500 97 15.13 15.1925 1.0301135429 1.0013162078
Feb-19 16.6400 98 15.255 15.365416667 1.0829514331 0.9889571948
Mar-19 17.2800 99 15.475833333 15.549583333 1.1112837965 0.9781335646
Apr-19 16.2100 100 15.623333333 15.685833333 1.0334165648 1.013202059
May-19 15.1700 101 15.748333333 15.799583333 0.9601519027 0.974320851
Jun-19 16.6700 102 15.850833333 15.804166667 1.0547851305 0.9918665735
Jul-19 15.2400 103 15.7575 15.644166667 0.9741650242 1.002984978
Aug-19 15.2400 104 15.530833333 15.302083333 0.9959428182 1.0294444738
Sep-19 15.1800 105 15.073333333 14.657083333 1.0356767206 0.9894858134
Oct-19 15.3400 106 14.240833333 13.8775 1.1053864169 1.0129275911
Nov-19 15.3700 107 13.514166667 13.209166667 1.1635858936 0.9371635009
Dec-19 15.1000 108 12.904166667 12.590416667 1.1993248833 0.966391359
Jan-20 12.9300 109 12.276666667 12.135833333 1.0654398132 1.0013162078
Feb-20 11.1500 110 11.995 11.946666667 0.9333147321 0.9889571948
Mar-20 7.2900 111 11.898333333 11.775 0.6191082803 0.9781335646
Apr-20 7.4900 112 11.651666667 11.52375 0.6499620349 1.013202059
May-20 7.8500 113 11.395833333 11.217916667 0.6997734279 0.974320851
Jun-20 9.1400 114 11.04 10.91875 0.837092158 0.9918665735
Jul-20 11.8600 115 10.7975 10.682916667 1.1101837045 1.002984978
Aug-20 14.0800 116 10.568333333 10.564583333 1.3327548807 1.0294444738
Sep-20 12.2200 117 10.560833333 10.675 1.1447306792 0.9894858134
Oct-20 12.2700 118 10.789166667 10.882083333 1.1275414481 1.0129275911
Nov-20 11.1000 119 10.975 0.9371635009
Dec-20 12.1900 120 0.966391359
Jan-21 10.1800 121 1.0013162078
Feb-21 11.0600 122 0.9889571948
Mar-21 10.0300 123 0.9781335646
Apr-21 9.7200 124 1.013202059
 Average Intercept
Slope

Ratios
Season 1 Season 2 Season 3 Season 4 Season 5 Season 6

1.0649565577 1.01369315 1.030112015 1.0590990259 1.0169975965 0.9963164971

1.0525254921 0.97511775 1.0718230143 0.9018356545 0.8781979411 0.7963133641
1.0058471626 1.02435554 1.0157233763 1.0700322382 0.9042399464 1.0140240412
1.0585917887 1.12938882 1.0469382482 1.1988740449 1.2415130941 1.2051083591
0.5527724996 0.6690878 0.8781069795 1.128195628 1.0009161105 1.1819006017
1.1071488308 0.99196882 0.9709351164 0.9703090285 0.9939410081 0.9019607843
1.0744501828 1.08073671 1.0591712547 1.1070943112 1.0731566321 0.9392982255
1.0301135429 1.08295143 1.1112837965 1.0334165648 0.9601519027 1.0547851305
1.0654398132 0.93331473 0.6191082803 0.6499620349 0.6997734279 0.837092158

Average 1.0013162078 0.98895719 0.9781335646 1.013202059 0.974320851 0.9918665735

Forecasts
Period Unadjusted Seasonal Adjusted
125 4.5491681388 0.97432085 4.4323493725 May-21
126 4.3330151752 0.99186657 4.2977729147 Jun-21
127 4.1168622117 1.00298498 4.1291509548 Jul-21
128 3.9007092481 1.02944447 4.0155635795 Aug-21
129 3.6845562846 0.98948581 3.6458161722 Sep-21
130 3.468403321 1.01292759 3.5132414209 Oct-21
131 3.2522503575 0.9371635 3.0478903307 Nov-21
132 3.0360973939 0.96639136 2.9340582867 Dec-21
133 2.8199444304 1.00131621 2.8236560633 Jan-22
134 2.6037914668 0.98895719 2.5750383049 Feb-22
135 2.3876385033 0.97813356 2.3354293601 Mar-22
136 2.1714855397 1.01320206 2.2001536199 Apr-22
 2 3
ALEATORIO

Forecasts and
SUAVIZADO TENDENCIA ESTIMADO Error Analysis
Smoothed Unadjusted Adjusted Error |Error| Error^2 Abs Pct Err
40.946106415 31.352135619 31.393401545 9.6065984552 9.6065984552 92.286733879 23.43%
47.191122371 31.135982655 30.792154064 15.877845936 15.877845936 252.10599155 34.02%
43.930605754 30.919829692 30.243723233 12.726276767 12.726276767 161.95812036 29.62%
41.127038412 30.703676728 31.10902848 10.56097152 10.56097152 111.53411945 25.34%
45.282824393 30.487523765 29.704630101 14.415369899 14.415369899 207.80288934 32.67%
38.291440618 30.271370801 30.025160831 7.9548391686 7.9548391686 63.279466198 20.94%
40.818158695 30.055217838 30.144932001 10.795067999 10.795067999 116.53349309 26.37%
45.490554557 29.839064874 30.717660439 16.112339561 16.112339561 259.60748613 34.41%
38.141021821 29.622911911 29.311451087 8.4285489133 8.4285489133 71.040436784 22.33%
40.407626724 29.406758947 29.786917503 11.143082497 11.143082497 124.16828755 27.22%
41.774994399 29.190605983 27.356370496 11.793629504 11.793629504 139.08969688 30.12%
39.67336798 28.97445302 28.000661032 10.339338968 10.339338968 106.9019303 26.97%
42.843608907 28.758300056 28.796151956 14.103848044 14.103848044 198.91852966 32.88%
40.578096009 28.542147093 28.226961723 11.903038277 11.903038277 141.68232023 29.66%
41.211140748 28.325994129 27.706605608 12.603394392 12.603394392 158.8455502 31.27%
40.732250427 28.109841166 28.480948947 12.789051053 12.789051053 163.55982683 30.99%
40.171571776 27.893688202 27.177402028 11.962597972 11.962597972 143.10375024 30.56%
38.291440618 27.677535239 27.45242204 10.52757796 10.52757796 110.82989771 27.72%
36.311610641 27.461382275 27.543353897 8.8766461032 8.8766461032 78.794846042 24.37%
33.668644479 27.245229312 28.047450753 6.6125492471 6.6125492471 43.725807545 19.08%
39.373985431 27.029076348 26.744887595 12.215112405 12.215112405 149.20897106 31.35%
35.303609373 26.812923384 27.159549894 8.6004501056 8.6004501056 73.96774202 24.05%
34.967217534 26.596770421 24.925522479 7.8444775207 7.8444775207 61.535827573 23.94%
37.20024984 26.380617457 25.494000757 10.455999243 10.455999243 109.32792017 29.08%
29.551104605 26.164464494 26.198902366 3.3910976336 3.3910976336 11.499543161 11.46%
25.906075748 25.94831153 25.661769381 -0.041769381 0.0417693809 0.0017446812 00.16%
26.540342689 25.732158567 25.169487983 0.7905120168 0.7905120168 0.6249092488 03.05%
19.759138685 25.516005603 25.852869415 -5.832869415 5.8328694145 34.022365607 29.14%
18.423089253 25.29985264 24.650173955 -6.700173955 6.700173955 44.892331028 37.33%
14.881033795 25.083699676 24.879683248 -10.11968325 10.119683248 102.40798904 68.56%
14.25744185 24.867546712 24.941775792 -10.64177579 10.641775792 113.24739201 74.42%
12.268753023 24.651393749 25.377241067 -12.74724107 12.747241067 162.49215482 100.93%
11.834429399 24.435240785 24.178324104 -12.4683241 12.468324104 155.45910596 106.48%
14.314942279 24.219087822 24.532182286 -10.03218229 10.032182286 100.64468142 69.19%
12.591186051 24.002934858 22.494674463 -10.69467446 10.694674463 114.37606187 90.63%
11.610203149 23.786781895 22.987340483 -11.76734048 11.767340483 138.47030203 104.88%
12.383700477 23.570628931 23.601652777 -11.20165278 11.201652777 125.47702494 90.34%
12.740692991 23.354475968 23.096577039 -10.49657704 10.496577039 110.17812954 83.31%
12.851005686 23.138323004 22.632370358 -10.06237036 10.062370358 101.25129723 80.05%
12.830609536 22.922170041 23.224789882 -10.22478988 10.224789882 104.54632813 78.65%
10.971745076 22.706017077 22.122945882 -11.43294588 11.432945882 130.71225155 106.95%
11.906843436 22.489864113 22.306944456 -10.49694446 10.496944456 110.18584292 88.88%
11.675149934 22.27371115 22.340197687 -10.63019769 10.630197687 113.00110287 90.78%
14.143550595 22.057558186 22.707031381 -8.147031381 8.147031381 66.374120324 55.95%
11.703048031 21.841405223 21.611760612 -10.03176061 10.031760612 100.63622098 86.63%
9.082584067 21.625252259 21.904814678 -12.70481468 12.704814678 161.412316 138.10%
9.8702094047 21.409099296 20.063826446 -10.81382645 10.813826446 116.93884241 116.91%
9.8924725584 21.192946332 20.480680208 -10.92068021 10.920680208 119.26125621 114.23%
11.404988665 20.976793369 21.004403188 -9.584403188 9.5844031879 91.860784468 83.93%
11.709303558 20.760640405 20.531384697 -8.951384697 8.9513846973 80.127288 77.30%
10.356458838 20.544487441 20.095252734 -9.965252734 9.9652527336 99.306262045 98.37%
11.034324201 20.328334478 20.596710349 -9.416710349 9.416710349 88.674433798 84.23%
11.495186609 20.112181514 19.595717809 -8.395717809 8.3957178094 70.488077535 74.96%
10.465117262 19.896028551 19.734205665 -9.354205665 9.3542056647 87.501163618 90.12%
7.0988102078 19.679875587 19.738619583 -12.61861958 12.618619583 159.22956018 177.23%
6.1392334999 19.463722624 20.036821695 -13.7168217 13.716821695 188.15119742 217.04%
6.0233304201 19.24756966 19.045197121 -13.08519712 13.085197121 171.22238369 219.55%
6.3281917249 19.031416697 19.27744707 -12.86744707 12.86744707 165.5711941 200.74%
5.0578154139 18.815263733 17.63297843 -12.89297843 12.89297843 166.22889279 272.00%
4.428847547 18.59911077 17.974019934 -13.69401993 13.694019934 187.52618194 319.95%
3.9947420893 18.382957806 18.407153599 -14.4071536 14.407153599 207.56607482 360.18%
5.2782870962 18.166804842 17.966192356 -12.74619236 12.746192356 162.46541957 244.18%
7.5245347532 17.950651879 17.558135109 -10.19813511 10.198135109 104.0019597 138.56%
10.017745138 17.734498915 17.968630816 -7.818630816 7.8186308163 61.130987842 77.03%
9.8119628558 17.518345952 17.068489737 -7.508489737 7.5084897366 56.377418124 78.54%
12.047991453 17.302192988 17.161466873 -5.211466873 5.2114668731 27.159386969 43.61%
14.606400217 17.086040025 17.137041478 -2.487041478 2.4870414781 6.1853753139 16.98%
12.006475642 16.869887061 17.366612009 -5.006612009 5.0066120092 25.06616381 40.51%
13.987062586 16.653734098 16.478633629 -2.638633629 2.6386336294 6.9623874304 19.07%
13.120385027 16.437581134 16.650079462 -3.360079462 3.3600794617 11.290133989 25.28%
11.918944762 16.22142817 15.202130413 -4.032130413 4.0321304133 16.25807567 36.10%
11.672289797 16.005275207 15.467359659 -4.187359659 4.1873596591 17.533980915 37.12%
13.771873353 15.789122243 15.809904009 -2.019904009 2.0199040094 4.0800122073 14.65%
12.437343158 15.57296928 15.401000014 -3.101000014 3.1010000138 9.6162010855 25.21%
12.309157395 15.356816316 15.021017484 -2.981017484 2.981017484 8.8864652401 24.76%
11.853509271 15.140663353 15.340551284 -3.330551284 3.3305512836 11.092571853 27.73%
12.767867984 14.924510389 14.541261664 -2.101261664 2.1012616638 4.4153005796 16.89%
11.594301398 14.708357426 14.588728081 -3.088728081 3.0887280814 9.5402411608 26.86%
12.203572604 14.492204462 14.535463373 -2.295463373 2.2954633734 5.2691520988 18.75%
13.045871187 14.276051499 14.696402323 -1.266402323 1.2664023232 1.6037748443 09.43%
12.925905381 14.059898535 13.912070138 -1.122070138 1.122070138 1.2590413946 08.77%
13.614003726 13.843745571 14.022711854 -0.232711854 0.2327118536 0.0541548068 01.69%
14.928024819 13.627592608 12.771282397 1.2187176033 1.2187176033 1.4852725965 08.71%
14.569666697 13.411439644 12.960699385 1.1193006154 1.1193006154 1.2528338675 07.95%
15.409717609 13.195286681 13.21265442 2.2173455798 2.2173455798 4.9166214203 14.37%
15.723633016 12.979133717 12.835807672 2.714192328 2.714192328 7.3668399934 17.45%
15.570470692 12.762980754 12.483899859 2.7461001407 2.7461001407 7.541065983 18.03%
15.742170931 12.54682779 12.712471751 3.2375282492 3.2375282492 10.481589164 20.30%
15.877726504 12.330674827 12.014033591 3.4559664091 3.4559664091 11.943703821 22.34%
13.741767657 12.114521863 12.01598929 1.6140107103 1.6140107103 2.6050305729 11.84%
13.699108463 11.898368899 11.933885269 1.8061147312 1.8061147312 3.2620504224 13.14%
12.229897115 11.682215936 12.026192637 0.5638073627 0.5638073627 0.3178787422 04.48%
13.552493445 11.466062972 11.345506647 2.0644933535 2.0644933535 4.2621328065 15.40%
13.663365596 11.249910009 11.395344245 2.4446557546 2.4446557546 5.9763417584 17.66%
15.088082268 11.033757045 10.34043438 3.7995656198 3.7995656198 14.436698899 26.87%
16.78409047 10.817604082 10.45403911 5.7659608898 5.7659608898 33.246304983 35.55%
15.629428424 10.601451118 10.615404831 5.034595169 5.034595169 25.347148516 32.17%
16.825804077 10.385298155 10.27061533 6.3693846698 6.3693846698 40.569061072 38.28%
17.666298986 10.169145191 9.9467822345 7.3332177655 7.3332177655 53.776082797 42.44%
15.998783121 9.9529922275 10.084392218 6.1256077819 6.1256077819 37.523070697 37.79%
15.56981972 9.736839264 9.4868055181 5.6831944819 5.6831944819 32.298699519 37.46%
16.806696027 9.5206863004 9.4432504981 7.2267495019 7.2267495019 52.225908364 43.35%
15.194644321 9.3045333369 9.3323071641 5.9076928359 5.9076928359 34.900834643 38.76%
14.804101035 9.0883803733 9.3559829514 5.8840170486 5.8840170486 34.621656629 38.61%
15.341301305 8.8722274098 8.7789431551 6.4010568449 6.4010568449 40.973528732 42.17%
15.144221694 8.6560744462 8.7679766373 6.5720233627 6.5720233627 43.19149108 42.84%
16.400553357 8.4399214827 7.9095863637 7.4604136363 7.4604136363 55.657771624 48.54%
15.62513971 8.2237685191 7.9473788357 7.1526211643 7.1526211643 51.15998952 47.37%
12.913003804 8.0076155556 8.0181552417 4.9118447583 4.9118447583 24.126218929 37.99%
11.274502131 7.791462592 7.7054229884 3.4445770116 3.4445770116 11.865110789 30.89%
7.4529698847 7.5753096285 7.4096646097 -0.11966461 0.1196646097 0.0143196188 01.64%
7.3924050326 7.3591566649 7.4563126854 0.0336873146 0.0336873146 0.0011348352 00.45%
8.0568941859 7.1430037014 6.9595774453 0.8904225547 0.8904225547 0.7928523259 11.34%
9.2149491114 6.9268507378 6.8705117064 2.2694882936 2.2694882936 5.1505771148 24.83%
11.82470352 6.7106977743 6.7307290594 5.1292709406 5.1292709406 26.309420382 43.25%
13.677279696 6.4945448107 6.6857732654 7.3942267346 7.3942267346 54.674589002 52.52%
12.349848613 6.2783918472 6.2123796636 6.0076203364 6.0076203364 36.091502106 49.16%
12.113402881 6.0622388836 6.1406090291 6.1293909709 6.1293909709 37.569433674 49.95%
11.844251286 5.8460859201 5.4787383472 5.6212616528 5.6212616528 31.598582569 50.64%
12.613937289 5.6299329565 5.4407185612 6.7492814388 6.7492814388 45.55279994 55.37%
10.166618617 5.413779993 5.4209056525 4.7590943475 4.7590943475 22.648979009 46.75%
11.183497181 5.1976270294 5.1402306467 5.9197693533 5.9197693533 35.043669197 53.52%
10.254223312 4.9814740659 4.8725469849 5.1574530151 5.1574530151 26.599321603 51.42%
9.593348053 4.7653211023 4.8282331527 4.8917668473 4.8917668473 23.929382889 50.33%
Total -0.355333506 907.67083419 8784.932156 7036.65%
31.568288583 -0.002865593 7.3199260822 70.846227064 56.75%
-0.216152964 Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 8.8962651116

Season 7 Season 8 Season 9 Season 10 Season 11 Season 12

0.9839572193 1.1307724812 0.9197960883 1.0006519436 0.9624090956 0.9473294074
0.9720748674 0.9546346558 1.1098265896 1.0636130423 1.0287911887 1.1982334805
0.8517608518 0.8132646491 0.8115272444 1.0678122123 0.9087991785 0.8934010152
1.0150245594 1.2712456345 1.0239481247 0.8264710286 0.8350573632 0.8660400861
0.880733945 0.8415446072 0.8359534802 0.9194907656 0.6909620991 0.6241720848
1.3551744074 1.073537927 1.1530130519 1.0826148938 0.8955104222 0.8970476159
0.9462698106 1.0221672534 0.953973335 1.0062633019 0.9996724923 0.9908805677
0.9405053905 0.8585798312 0.90641282 0.9294308579 0.9496837746 1.0810930904
0.9741650242 0.9959428182 1.0356767206 1.1053864169 1.1635858936 1.1993248833
1.1101837045 1.3327548807 1.1447306792 1.1275414481

1.002984978 1.0294444738 0.9894858134 1.0129275911 0.9371635009 0.966391359

 Forecasting
50.0000
45.0000
40.0000
35.0000
30.0000
25.0000
Value

20.0000
15.0000
10.0000
5.0000
0.0000
1 6 1 1 1 6 21 26 31 36 4 1 46 51 5 6 61 6 6 71 76 8 1 86 91 96 1 0 1 10 6 1 1 1 11 6 12 1

Time

Demand (y) Smoothed Unadjusted Adjusted

Demanda(y) Cotizaciones de acciones

Original
50.0000
45.0000
40.0000
35.0000
30.0000
25.0000
20.0000
15.0000
10.0000
5.0000
0.0000
Jan-11 Aug-11Mar-12 Oct-12May-13Dec-13 Jul-14 Feb-15 Sep-15 Apr-16 Nov-16 Jun-17 Jan-18 Aug-18Mar-19 Oct-19 May-20Dec-20

Cotizaciones de acciones
ESTACIONAL
1.04

1.02

0.98

0.96

0.94

0.92

0.9

0.88
Jan-11 Aug-11Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13Dec-13 Jul-14 Feb-15 Sep-15 Apr-16 Nov-16 Jun-17 Jan-18 Aug-18Mar-19 Oct-19 May-20Dec-20
 0.98

0.96

0.94

0.92

0.9

0.88
Jan-11 Aug-11Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13Dec-13 Jul-14 Feb-15 Sep-15 Apr-16 Nov-16 Jun-17 Jan-18 Aug-18Mar-19 Oct-19 May-20Dec-20

Cotizaciones de acciones
SUAVIZADO
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 Jul-14 Feb-15 Sep-15 Apr-16 Nov-16 Jun-17 Jan-18 Aug-18 Mar-19 Oct-19 May-20 Dec-20

Cotizaciones de acciones
TENDENCIA
35

30

25

20

15

10

0
Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 Jul-14 Feb-15 Sep-15 Apr-16 Nov-16 Jun-17 Jan-18 Aug-18 Mar-19 Oct-19 May-20 Dec-20

Cotizaciones de acciones
ALEATORIO
Error
20
15
10
5
0
Jan-11 Dec-11 Nov-12 Oct-13 Sep-14 Aug-15 Jul-16 Jun-17 May-18 Apr-19 Mar-20 Feb-21
-5
-10
-15
-20
 5
0
Jan-11 Dec-11 Nov-12 Oct-13 Sep-14 Aug-15 Jul-16 Jun-17 May-18 Apr-19 Mar-20 Feb-21
-5
-10
-15
-20

Cotizaciones de acciones
Datos reales y pronosticos
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-

Demand (y) Adjusted

 ESTIMADO
Period Demand (y) Adjusted
Jan-11 41 31.393401545
Feb-11 46.67 30.792154064
Mar-11 42.97 30.243723233
Apr-11 41.67 31.10902848
May-11 44.12 29.704630101
Jun-11 37.98 30.025160831

Jul-11 40.94 30.144932001

Aug-11 46.83 30.717660439
Sep-11 37.74 29.311451087
Oct-11 40.93 29.786917503
6 01 0 6 11 16 2 1 Nov-11 39.15 27.356370496
1 1 1 1 1
Dec-11 38.34 28.000661032
Jan-12 42.9 28.796151956
Feb-12 40.13 28.226961723
Mar-12 40.31 27.706605608
Apr-12 41.27 28.480948947
May-12 39.14 27.177402028
Jun-12 37.98 27.45242204
Jul-12 36.42 27.543353897
Aug-12 34.66 28.047450753
Sep-12 38.96 26.744887595
Oct-12 35.76 27.159549894
Nov-12 32.77 24.925522479
Dec-12 35.95 25.494000757
Jan-13 29.59 26.198902366
Feb-13 25.62 25.661769381
Mar-13 25.96 25.169487983
Apr-13 20.02 25.852869415
May-13 17.95 24.650173955
18Mar-19 Oct-19 May-20Dec-20
Jun-13 14.76 24.879683248
Jul-13 14.3 24.941775792
Aug-13 12.63 25.377241067
Sep-13 11.71 24.178324104
Oct-13 14.5 24.532182286
Nov-13 11.8 22.494674463
Dec-13 11.22 22.987340483
Jan-14 12.4 23.601652777
Feb-14 12.6 23.096577039
Mar-14 12.57 22.632370358
Apr-14 13 23.224789882
May-14 10.69 22.122945882

8Mar-19 Oct-19 May-20Dec-20

 Jun-14 11.81 22.306944456
Jul-14 11.71 22.340197687
8Mar-19 Oct-19 May-20Dec-20 Aug-14 14.56 22.707031381
Sep-14 11.58 21.611760612
Oct-14 9.2 21.904814678
Nov-14 9.25 20.063826446
Dec-14 9.56 20.480680208
Jan-15 11.42 21.004403188
Feb-15 11.58 20.531384697
Mar-15 10.13 20.095252734
Apr-15 11.18 20.596710349
May-15 11.2 19.595717809
Jun-15 10.38 19.734205665
Jul-15 7.12 19.738619583
Aug-15 6.32 20.036821695
Sep-15 5.96 19.045197121
Oct-15 6.41 19.27744707
Nov-15 4.74 17.63297843
8 Mar-19 Oct-19 May-20 Dec-20
Dec-15 4.28 17.974019934
Jan-16 4 18.407153599
Feb-16 5.22 17.966192356
Mar-16 7.36 17.558135109
Apr-16 10.15 17.968630816
May-16 9.56 17.068489737
Jun-16 11.95 17.161466873
Jul-16 14.65 17.137041478
Aug-16 12.36 17.366612009
Sep-16 13.84 16.478633629
Oct-16 13.29 16.650079462
Nov-16 11.17 15.202130413
Dec-16 11.28 15.467359659
Jan-17 13.79 15.809904009
Feb-17 12.3 15.401000014
Mar-19 Oct-19 May-20 Dec-20
Mar-17 12.04 15.021017484
Apr-17 12.01 15.340551284
May-17 12.44 14.541261664
Jun-17 11.5 14.588728081
Jul-17 12.24 14.535463373
Aug-17 13.43 14.696402323
Sep-17 12.79 13.912070138
Oct-17 13.79 14.022711854
Nov-17 13.99 12.771282397
Dec-17 14.08 12.960699385
Jan-18 15.43 13.21265442
Feb-18 15.55 12.835807672
Mar-18 15.23 12.483899859
 Apr-18 15.95 12.712471751
May-18 15.47 12.014033591
Jun-18 13.63 12.01598929
Jul-18 13.74 11.933885269
Aug-18 12.59 12.026192637
Sep-18 13.41 11.345506647
Oct-18 13.84 11.395344245
Nov-18 14.14 10.34043438
Dec-18 16.22 10.45403911
Jan-19 15.65 10.615404831
Feb-19 16.64 10.27061533
Mar-19 17.28 9.9467822345
Apr-19 16.21 10.084392218
May-19 15.17 9.4868055181
Jun-19 16.67 9.4432504981
Jul-19 15.24 9.3323071641
8 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22
Aug-19 15.24 9.3559829514
Sep-19 15.18 8.7789431551
Oct-19 15.34 8.7679766373
Nov-19 15.37 7.9095863637
Dec-19 15.1 7.9473788357
Jan-20 12.93 8.0181552417
Feb-20 11.15 7.7054229884
Mar-20 7.29 7.4096646097
Apr-20 7.49 7.4563126854
May-20 7.85 6.9595774453
Jun-20 9.14 6.8705117064
Jul-20 11.86 6.7307290594
Aug-20 14.08 6.6857732654
Sep-20 12.22 6.2123796636
Oct-20 12.27 6.1406090291
Nov-20 11.1 5.4787383472
Dec-20 12.19 5.4407185612
Jan-21 10.18 5.4209056525
Feb-21 11.06 5.1402306467
Mar-21 10.03 4.8725469849
Apr-21 9.72 4.8282331527
May-21 4.4323493725
Jun-21 4.2977729147
Jul-21 4.1291509548
Aug-21 4.0155635795
Sep-21 3.6458161722
Oct-21 3.5132414209
Nov-21 3.0478903307
Dec-21 2.9340582867
Jan-22 2.8236560633
Feb-22 2.5750383049
Mar-22 2.3354293601
Apr-22 2.2001536199
Estamos trabajando con una compañía de minas Buenaventura S.A.A - cuyo trabajo trata sobre la cotizaciones de

BVN
Cotizaciones Enero 2011 - Abril 2021
50.0000
45.0000
40.0000
35.0000
30.0000
25.0000
20.0000
15.0000
10.0000
5.0000
0.0000
Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Feb-1

También podemos decir de la columnas D Y E

En la D: se puede decir que el promedio sacado es de 12 en 12
En la E: mientras que en la E el promedio es sacado de 2 en 2

Descomposición aditiva
Columna - D
45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20

Encontramos un error en porcentanje

Descomposición aditiva: 56.81% 0.07%
Descomposición multiplicativa: 56.75%
Podemos concluir que la descomposición multiplicativa existe menor error que la aditiva

También encontramos los datos reales y pronosticos de los dos tipos de descomposición

Descomposición aditiva:

Cotizaciones de acciones
Datos reales y pronosticos
50.0000
 Cotizaciones de acciones
Datos reales y pronosticos
50.0000
45.0000
40.0000
35.0000
30.0000
25.0000
20.0000
15.0000
10.0000
5.0000
0.0000
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-2

Demand (y) Adjusted

Descomposición multiplicativa:

Cotizaciones de acciones
Datos reales y pronosticos
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20

Demand (y) Adjusted

sobre la cotizaciones de acciones en los periodos de 2011 hasta abril de 2021

Abril 2021

6 Nov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Feb-18 Jul-18 Dec-18 May-19 Oct-19 Mar-20 Aug-20 Jan-21

Descomposición Multiplicativa
Columna - E
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-1
1 11 -1
2
t-1
2 13 13 l- 1
4 15 15 r-1
6 16 17 1 8 18 -1
9
t-1
9
an g- ar c a y- e c- u b- p- p ov- n- n- g- ar c
J Au M O M D J F e S e A N Ju Ja Au M O
19 Jul-19 Jan-20
 Los dos graficos son similares ya que solo se
llevan por un diferencia de 0.07% . Aparte de
que tambien agregamos datos desde abril 2021
hasta Abril 2022

-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22

8 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22

18 18 -1
9
t-1
9
g- ar c
Au M O