Proyeccion Venta Energia

Código Descripción Área de Demanda Sistema Peajes
SE0134 Arequipa 9 Arequipa

SE0138 Camaná 9 Camana. Chuquiba
SE0141 Chuquibamba 9 Camana. Chuquiba
SE0148 Pampacolca 9 Camana. Chuquiba
SE0250 Majes-Siguas 9 Camana. Chuquiba
SE0252 Valle de Majes 9 Camana. Chuquiba
SE0251 Repartición-La Cano 9 Reparticion - La
SE0135 Mollendo-Matarani 9 Islay
SE0249 Islay 9 Islay
SE0152 Orcopampa 9 Orcopampa
SE0114 Puquina-Omate-Ubinas 9 Puquina-Omate-U
SE0146 Valle del Colca 9 Valle del Colca
SR0043 Valle del Colca 9 Valle del Colca
Suma de MWh
ademanda Empresa nombresistematra Tension
9 ELECTROSUR Puquina-Omate-Ubinas BT
MT
Puquina-Omate-Ubinas
SEAL Arequipa AT
BT
MT
Arequipa
Camana. Chuquibamba, Valle deAT

BT
MT
Camana. Chuquibamba, Valle de Majes - Siguas y Pampacolca
Islay AT
BT
MT
Islay
Orcopampa BT
MT
Orcopampa
Reparticion - La Cano AT
BT
MT
Reparticion - La Cano
Valle del Colca AT

BT
MT
Valle del Colca
ademanda
8 SEAL Bella Unión - Chala AT
BT
MT
Bella Unión - Chala

Código Sistema BD N
83 AREQUI 1
84 CAMANA 1
84 CAMANA 2
84 CAMANA 3
84 CAMANA 4
84 CAMANA 5
85 RELACANO 1
91 ISLAY 1
91 ISLAY 2
92 ORCAPA 1
95 PUNQUI 1
98 VACOLCA 1
98 VACOLCA 2
Año
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
361.52 280.75 319.66 377.74 558.79
-22.3% 13.9% 18.2% -100.0% 0.0%
361.52 280.75 319.66 377.74 0.00 558.79

-22.3% 13.9% 18.2% -100.0% 0.0%
4,404.93 5,236.29
18.9%
209,349.78 208,912.52 216,816.66 217,520.73 218,811.37 226,958.85
-0.2% 3.8% 0.3% 0.6% 3.7%
65,806.97 71,561.35 78,700.30 84,528.76 88,507.50 90,700.66
8.7% 10.0% 7.4% 4.7% 2.5%
279,561.68 285,710.16 295,516.96 302,049.49 307,318.87 317,659.51
2.2% 3.4% 2.2% 1.7% 3.4%
5,364.40
1,413.63
es - Siguas y Pampacolca 6,778.03
926.21 11,006.14 10,702.78 11,646.11 11,994.72

1088.3% -2.8% 8.8% 3.0%
143.41 4,082.04 6,166.15 6,787.46 6,985.16
2746.4% 51.1% 10.1% 2.9%
1,069.62 15,088.18 16,868.93 18,433.57 18,979.88
1310.6% 11.8% 9.3% 3.0%
1,814.64
2,151.45
3,966.10
1,596.31
65.11
1,661.42
279,923.20 287,060.53 310,924.80 319,296.16 325,752.44 349,603.73
3,159.83
1,869.29
5,029.11
0.0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
654.20 741.16 887.63 1,008.76 1,195.93
17.1% 13.3% 19.8% 13.6% 18.6%
4.27 378.61 5,787.85
8775.0% 1428.7%
654.20 741.16 891.89 1,387.37 6,983.78
17.1% 13.3% 20.3% 55.6% 403.4%
0.00
246,969.34 254,655.13 273,928.83 288,168.47 313,352.70

8.8% 3.1% 7.6% 5.2% 8.7%
101,566.88 106,823.09 117,069.75 121,506.72 127,410.83
12.0% 5.2% 9.6% 3.8% 4.9%
348,536.22 361,478.23 390,998.57 409,675.20 440,763.53
9.7% 3.7% 8.2% 4.8% 7.6%
0.00
4,151.06 5,361.00 5,872.86 8,669.49 21,546.58
-22.6% 29.1% 9.5% 47.6% 148.5%
17.35 17.65 126.36 2,007.67 11,815.54
-98.8% 1.7% 615.8% 1488.9% 488.5%
4,168.41 5,378.65 5,999.22 10,677.17 33,362.12
-38.5% 29.0% 11.5% 78.0% 212.5%
0.00
12,868.17 13,125.37 14,860.52 16,430.07 17,828.24
7.3% 2.0% 13.2% 10.6% 8.5%
9,532.78 10,112.95 9,455.43 7,990.48 9,101.67
36.5% 6.1% -6.5% -15.5% 13.9%
22,400.95 23,238.32 24,315.95 24,420.55 26,929.91
18.0% 3.7% 4.6% 0.4% 10.3%
112.71 929.70
724.8%
1.43 24.32
1604.3%
114.14 954.02
735.8%
0.00
7,298.96 7,999.55 9,332.54 8,920.69 4,283.13
302.2% 9.6% 16.7% -4.4% -52.0%
8,460.23 10,844.97 11,965.89 11,009.18 3,783.12
293.2% 28.2% 10.3% -8.0% -65.6%
15,759.19 18,844.52 21,298.43 19,929.87 8,066.25
297.3% 19.6% 13.0% -6.4% -59.5%
0.00
1,640.07 1,812.08 2,066.02 2,311.18 2,471.84
2.7% 10.5% 14.0% 11.9% 7.0%
49.12 43.95 81.09 154.92 225.54
-24.6% -10.5% 84.5% 91.0% 45.6%
1,689.19 1,856.03 2,147.12 2,466.09 2,697.38
1.7% 9.9% 15.7% 14.9% 9.4%
393,208.15 411,536.90 445,651.18 468,670.38 519,757.00
0.00
2,379.59 1,761.13 2,171.74 2,603.99 2,990.11
-24.7% -26.0% 23.3% 19.9% 14.8%
665.44 3,981.22 5,173.83 7,321.25
-100.0% 0.0% 498.3% 30.0% 41.5%
2,379.59 2,426.57 6,152.97 7,777.81 10,311.36
-52.7% 2.0% 153.6% 26.4% 32.6%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1,480.42 1,798.30 1,962.60 2,149.45 2,241.76
23.8% 21.5% 9.1% 9.5% 4.3%
6,638.21 13,951.74 21,125.46 22,514.72 29,288.89
14.7% 110.2% 51.4% 6.6% 30.1%
8,118.64 15,750.04 23,088.07 24,664.17 31,530.65
16.2% 94.0% 46.6% 6.8% 27.8%
333,992.58 352,519.49 374,838.90 401,542.28 433,244.22

6.6% 5.5% 6.3% 7.1% 7.9%
135,582.23 151,103.68 154,299.39 169,551.54 207,558.36
6.4% 11.4% 2.1% 9.9% 22.4%
469,574.81 503,623.18 529,138.29 571,093.83 640,802.58
6.5% 7.3% 5.1% 7.9% 12.2%
25,254.71 28,764.51 33,251.16 37,510.56 41,839.02

17.2% 13.9% 15.6% 12.8% 11.5%
13,413.25 15,087.62 17,003.63 19,004.51 20,042.14
13.5% 12.5% 12.7% 11.8% 5.5%
38,667.96 43,852.13 50,254.79 56,515.06 61,881.16
15.9% 13.4% 14.6% 12.5% 9.5%
0.00
17,923.81 18,654.35 20,448.29 21,894.46 22,982.42
0.5% 4.1% 9.6% 7.1% 5.0%
11,302.22 10,680.39 9,605.08 8,925.21 10,580.69
24.2% -5.5% -10.1% -7.1% 18.5%
29,226.03 29,334.74 30,053.37 30,819.67 33,563.11
8.5% 0.4% 2.4% 2.5% 8.9%
1,120.04 1,242.32 1,621.14 1,953.44 2,346.23
20.5% 10.9% 30.5% 20.5% 20.1%
139.62 116.21 122.60 133.35 114.93
474.1% -16.8% 5.5% 8.8% -13.8%
1,259.67 1,358.53 1,743.74 2,086.79 2,461.15
32.0% 7.8% 28.4% 19.7% 17.9%
4,955.53 5,267.39 6,124.61 7,366.07 8,874.47

15.7% 6.3% 16.3% 20.3% 20.5%
4,913.77 7,811.59 9,193.16 9,326.64 11,452.57
29.9% 59.0% 17.7% 1.5% 22.8%
9,869.30 13,078.98 15,317.77 16,692.71 20,327.04
22.4% 32.5% 17.1% 9.0% 21.8%
2,742.14 3,200.68 3,200.69 3,345.34 3,547.69

10.9% 16.7% 0.0% 4.5% 6.0%
405.68 834.08 1,060.38 1,078.62 1,106.39
79.9% 105.6% 27.1% 1.7% 2.6%
3,147.82 4,034.76 4,261.07 4,423.96 4,654.08
16.7% 28.2% 5.6% 3.8% 5.2%
559,864.23 611,032.36 653,857.09 706,296.18 795,219.77
3,355.28 3,844.41 4,550.11 5,368.58 6,437.17

12.2% 14.6% 18.4% 18.0% 19.9%
9,023.96 15,113.21 14,787.98 19,359.98 24,302.40
23.3% 67.5% -2.2% 30.9% 25.5%
12,379.23 18,957.63 19,338.09 24,728.56 30,739.57
20.1% 53.1% 2.0% 27.9% 24.3%
2012 2013 2014
2,331.69 2,361.87 2,350.02
4.0% 1.3% -0.5%
22,834.35 10,171.57 8,974.73
-22.0% -55.5% -11.8%
25,166.03 12,533.44 11,324.74
-20.2% -50.2% -9.6%
457,464.63 479,781.87 499,110.27

5.6% 4.9% 4.0%
216,197.95 230,639.71 248,464.50
4.2% 6.7% 7.7%
673,662.58 710,421.58 747,574.76
5.1% 5.5% 5.2%
45,498.37 48,705.92 51,512.20

8.7% 7.0% 5.8%
20,842.34 22,560.85 24,331.55
4.0% 8.2% 7.8%
66,340.71 71,266.77 75,843.75
7.2% 7.4% 6.4%
24,258.89 24,782.05 25,998.12

5.6% 2.2% 4.9%
11,541.34 15,458.34 15,330.92
9.1% 33.9% -0.8%
35,800.23 40,240.40 41,329.04
6.7% 12.4% 2.7%
2,580.33 2,654.75 2,446.39
10.0% 2.9% -7.8%
121.33 69.52 130.33
5.6% -42.7% 87.5%
2,701.65 2,724.28 2,576.72
9.8% 0.8% -5.4%
9,609.82 10,017.60 10,726.63

8.3% 4.2% 7.1%
13,425.30 14,295.98 16,489.35
17.2% 6.5% 15.3%
23,035.12 24,313.59 27,215.97
13.3% 5.6% 11.9%
571.54 592.79 533.13
3,619.21 3,660.87 3,694.89
2.0% 1.2% 0.9%
1,048.79 1,125.13 1,164.84
-5.2% 7.3% 3.5%
5,239.54 5,378.79 5,392.86
12.6% 2.7% 0.3%
831,945.86 866,878.84 911,257.85
7,271.97 7,855.81 8,459.32

13.0% 8.0% 7.7%
25,987.68 27,624.43 27,926.49
6.9% 6.3% 1.1%
33,259.66 35,480.24 36,385.81
8.2% 6.7% 2.6%
VENTAS HISTORICAS DE ENERGÍA (MWh)
USUARIOS REGULADOS - ÁREA DE DEMANDA 9
AÑO Mercado Regulado Clientes

AT MT BT Sub-Total
1996 4,405 65,807 209,711 279,923 145,007
1997 5,236 71,705 210,119 287,061 165,075
1998 0 82,782 228,142 310,925 168,577
1999 0 90,695 228,601 319,296 173,424
2000 0 95,295 230,457 325,752 175,714
2001 0 101,316 248,288 349,604 198,253
2002 0 119,626 273,582 393,208 206,625
2003 0 127,843 283,694 411,537 215,981
2004 0 138,703 306,948 445,651 224,313
2005 0 143,049 325,621 468,670 237,839
2006 0 158,149 361,608 519,757 246,186
2007 0 172,395 387,469 559,864 259,006
2008 0 199,585 411,447 611,032 275,264
2009 0 212,410 441,447 653,857 287,513
2010 0 230,535 475,762 706,296 302,801
2011 0 280,144 515,076 795,220 317,367
2012 572 286,011 545,363 831,946 333,811
2013 593 294,321 571,965 866,879 348,328
2014 533 314,886 595,839 911,258 368,916

USUARIOS REGULADOS - Arequipa
Arequipa
AÑO Mercado Regulado
AT MT BT Sub-Total
1996 4,405 65,807 209,350 279,562
1997 5,236 71,561 208,913 285,710
1998 0 78,700 216,817 295,517
1999 0 84,529 217,521 302,049
2000 0 88,508 218,811 307,319
2001 0 90,701 226,959 317,660
2002 0 101,567 246,969 348,536
2003 0 106,823 254,655 361,478
2004 0 117,070 273,929 390,999
2005 0 121,507 288,168 409,675
2006 0 127,411 313,353 440,764
2007 0 135,582 333,993 469,575
2008 0 151,104 352,519 503,623
2009 0 154,299 374,839 529,138
2010 0 169,552 401,542 571,094
2011 0 207,558 433,244 640,803
2012 0 216,198 457,465 673,663
2013 0 230,640 479,782 710,422
2014 0 248,464 499,110 747,575

USUARIOS REGULADOS - Camaná, Chuquibamba, Majes-Siguas, Repartición-La Cano, Val
Camaná, Chuquibamba, Majes-Siguas, Repartición-La Cano, Valle de Majes

AT MT BT Sub-Total
1996 0 0 0 0
1997 0 0 0 0
1998 0 0 0 0
1999 0 0 0 0
2000 0 0 0 0
2001 0 3,565 7,179 10,744
2002 0 8,478 11,450 19,928
2003 0 10,863 13,361 24,223
2004 0 12,092 15,205 27,298
2005 0 13,017 17,590 30,607
2006 0 15,599 25,830 41,428
2007 0 18,327 30,210 48,537
2008 0 22,899 34,032 56,931
2009 0 26,197 39,376 65,573
2010 0 28,331 44,877 73,208
2011 0 31,495 50,713 82,208
2012 0 34,268 55,108 89,376
2013 0 36,857 58,724 95,580
2014 0 40,821 62,239 103,060

USUARIOS REGULADOS - Islay
Islay
AT MT BT Sub-Total
1996 0 0 0 0
1997 0 143 926 1,070
1998 0 4,082 11,006 15,088
1999 0 6,166 10,703 16,869
2000 0 6,787 11,646 18,434
2001 0 6,985 11,995 18,980
2002 0 9,533 12,868 22,401
2003 0 10,113 13,125 23,238
2004 0 9,455 14,861 24,316
2005 0 7,990 16,430 24,421
2006 0 9,102 17,828 26,930
2007 0 11,302 17,924 29,226
2008 0 10,680 18,654 29,335
2009 0 9,605 20,448 30,053
2010 0 8,925 21,894 30,820
2011 0 10,581 22,982 33,563
2012 0 11,541 24,259 35,800
2013 0 15,458 24,782 40,240
2014 0 15,331 25,998 41,329

USUARIOS REGULADOS - Orcopampa, Valle del Colca
Orcopampa, Valle del Colca
AT MT BT Sub-Total
1996 0 0 0 0
1997 0 0 0 0
1998 0 0 0 0
1999 0 0 0 0
2000 0 0 0 0
2001 0 65 1,596 1,661
2002 0 49 1,640 1,689
2003 0 44 1,812 1,856
2004 0 81 2,066 2,147
2005 0 156 2,424 2,580
2006 0 250 3,402 3,651
2007 0 545 3,862 4,407
2008 0 950 4,443 5,393
2009 0 1,183 4,822 6,005
2010 0 1,212 5,299 6,511
2011 0 1,221 5,894 7,115
2012 572 1,170 6,200 7,941
2013 593 1,195 6,316 8,103
2014 533 1,295 6,141 7,970

USUARIOS REGULADOS - Puquina-Omate-Ubinas
Puquina-Omate-Ubinas
AT MT BT Sub-Total
1996 0 0 362 362
1997 0 0 281 281
1998 0 0 320 320
1999 0 0 378 378
2000 0 0 0 0
2001 0 0 559 559
2002 0 0 654 654
2003 0 0 741 741
2004 0 4 888 892
2005 0 379 1,009 1,387
2006 0 5,788 1,196 6,984
2007 0 6,638 1,480 8,119
2008 0 13,952 1,798 15,750
2009 0 21,125 1,963 23,088
2010 0 22,515 2,149 24,664
2011 0 29,289 2,242 31,531
2012 0 22,834 2,332 25,166
2013 0 10,172 2,362 12,533
2014 0 8,975 2,350 11,325

USUARIOS REGULADOS - Bella Unión - Chala
Bella Unión - Chala
AT MT BT Sub-Total
1996 0 0 0 0
1997 0 0 0 0
1998 0 0 0 0
1999 0 0 0 0
2000 0 0 0 0
2001 0 1,869 3,160 5,029
2002 0 0 2,380 2,380
2003 0 665 1,761 2,427
2004 0 3,981 2,172 6,153
2005 0 5,174 2,604 7,778
2006 0 7,321 2,990 10,311
2007 0 9,024 3,355 12,379
2008 0 15,113 3,844 18,958
2009 0 14,788 4,550 19,338
2010 0 19,360 5,369 24,729
2011 0 24,302 6,437 30,740
2012 0 25,988 7,272 33,260
2013 0 27,624 7,856 35,480
2014 0 27,926 8,459 36,386
Rmin 0.95

USUARIOS REGULADOS - ÁREA DE DEMANDA 9

AT MT(1) BT(1) Sub-Total
1996 4,405 65,807 209,711 279,923
1997 5,236 71,705 210,119 287,061
1998 0 82,782 228,142 310,925
1999 0 90,695 228,601 319,296
2000 0 95,295 230,457 325,752
2001 0 101,316 248,288 349,604
2002 0 119,626 273,582 393,208
2003 0 127,843 283,694 411,537
2004 0 138,703 306,948 445,651
2005 0 143,049 325,621 468,670
2006 0 158,149 361,608 519,757
2007 0 172,395 387,469 559,864
2008 0 199,585 411,447 611,032
2009 0 212,410 441,447 653,857
2010 0 230,535 475,762 706,296
2011 0 280,144 515,076 795,220
2012 572 286,011 545,363 831,946
2013 593 294,321 571,965 866,879
2014 533 314,886 595,839 911,258
(1) No incluye pérdidas en media y baja tensión.

Fuente:
Anuarios Estadísticos del OSINERGMIN
DEPARTAMENTOS 1993 1994 1995 1996

Amazonas 368,989
Áncash 1,020,185
Apurímac 408,178
Arequipa 1,014,592
Ayacucho 555,410
Cajamarca 1,349,077
Callao 715,875
Cusco 1,121,838
Huancavelica 420,621
Huánuco 707,069
Ica 617,871
Junín 1,149,842
La Libertad 1,413,698
Lambayeque 1,013,605
Lima 7,163,136
Loreto 781,289
Madre de Dios 76,874
Moquegua 142,028
Pasco 257,492
Piura 1,520,193
Puno 1,166,008
San Martín 600,856
Tacna 244,089
Tumbes 169,886
Ucayali 349,431
TOTAL 24 348 132
AREA9 380,701
Fuente:
PERÚ: Estimaciones y Proyecciones de Población por Departamento, Sexo y Grupos Quinquenales de Edad 1995-2025
Boletín de Análisis Demográfico Nº 37, INEI, Octubre 2009
Departamento 1994 1995 1996 1997

Amazonas 549 537
549 537
Ancash 2 828 2 811
2,828 2,811
Apurímac 686 709
686 709
Arequipa 5 277 5 655
5,277 5,655
Ayacucho 986 1 039
986 1,039
Cajamarca 2 555 2 872
2,555 2,872
Cusco 2 640 2 874
2,640 2,874
Huancavelica 1 188 1 241
1,188 1,241
Huánuco 1 437 1 520
1,437 1,520
Ica 2 471 2 680
2,471 2,680
Junín 3 534 3 708
3,534 3,708
La Libertad 4 470 4 714
4,470 4,714
Lambayeque 3 350 3 409
3,350 3,409
Lima 50 490 54 293
50,490 54,293
Loreto 2 458 2 567
2,458 2,567
Madre de Dios 364 382
364 382
Moquegua 1 364 1 538
1,364 1,538
Pasco 1 175 1 271
1 175 1 271
Piura 4 447 4 483
4 447 4 483
Puno 2 154 2 353
2 154 2 353
San Martín 1 402 1 502
1 402 1 502
Tacna 1 484 1 586
1 484 1 586
Tumbes 553 651
553 651
Ucayali 927 971
927 971
Valor Agregado Bruto 196 651 209 761
Impuestos a los Productos 8 691 9 388
Derechos de Importación 2 229 2 458
Productos Bruto Interno 109 709 117 212
Tasa 6.84%
AREA9 5 230 5 606
Fuente:
Instituto Nacional de Estadìstica e Informática
A partir del año 2008. (Valores a precios constantes del año 2007)
VARIABLE EXPLICATIVA: PRECIO MEDIO
Precio Medio
Año
(ctm. US$D / kW.h)
1996 10.56
1997 10.73
1998 9.75
1999 9.52
2000 9.52
2001 9.05
2002 8.35
2003 8.50
2004 8.68
2005 9.65
2006 9.93
2007 9.49
2008 9.99
2009 10.77
2010 10.97
2011 11.19
2012 12.54
2013 12.73
2014 13.62
2015 13.62
2016 13.62
2017 13.62
2018 13.62
2019 13.62
2020 13.62
2021 13.62
2022 13.62
2023 13.62
2024 13.62
2025 13.62
2026 13.62
2027 13.62
2028 13.62
2029 13.62
2030 13.62
2031 13.62
2032 13.62
2033 13.62
2034 13.62
2035 13.62
2036 13.62
2037 13.62
2038 13.62
2039 13.62
2040 13.62
2041 13.62
2042 13.62
2043 13.62
2044 13.62
2045 13.62
2046 13.62
FACTOR VENTAS DE ENERGÍA POR DEPARTAMENTOS 2014
AREA 9
Factor de
Ventas
Departamento Participaci
MWh
ón
AREQUIPA 936,319 98.80%
MOQUEGUA 11,325 1.20%
- 0.00%
Clientes TOTAL 947,644 100.00%
147,192 VARIABLE EXPLICATIVA: CLIENTES

159,138 AÑO CLIENTES
161,663 1996 147,192
181,063 1997 159,138
191,231 1998 161,663
197,673 1999 181,063
212,635 2000 191,231
220,097 2001 197,673
228,750 2002 212,635
238,005 2003 220,097
266,226 2004 228,750
279,264 2005 238,005
299,898 2006 266,226
313,089 2007 279,264
335,030 2008 299,898
365,833 2009 313,089
396,763 2010 335,030
426,109 2011 365,833
441,218 2012 396,763
2013 426,109
2014 441,218
Cuadro Nº 1B.- POBLACIÓN
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

373,384 377,553 381,505 385,241 388,720 391,938
1,027,624 1,034,960 1,042,206 1,049,379 1,056,484 1,063,510
411,061 413,928 416,771 419,585 422,361 425,104
1,032,861 1,050,860 1,068,260 1,084,725 1,100,094 1,114,590
558,895 562,399 566,491 571,739 578,465 586,290
1,363,643 1,378,011 1,391,834 1,404,767 1,416,728 1,427,948
734,634 753,291 771,511 788,961 805,478 821,283
1,135,342 1,148,596 1,161,451 1,173,757 1,185,457 1,196,650
424,270 427,948 431,681 435,491 439,405 443,404
717,572 727,873 737,833 747,309 756,187 764,559
627,872 637,745 647,528 657,255 666,976 676,667
1,162,447 1,174,637 1,186,547 1,198,307 1,209,950 1,221,386
1,441,138 1,468,049 1,494,352 1,519,967 1,544,794 1,568,885
1,032,162 1,050,444 1,067,983 1,084,317 1,099,245 1,113,080
7,317,254 7,469,612 7,619,920 7,767,873 7,913,690 8,057,558
798,068 814,951 831,502 847,288 862,190 876,497
79,832 82,847 85,913 89,018 92,185 95,420
144,672 147,263 149,762 152,129 154,339 156,420
259,936 262,367 264,808 267,286 269,807 272,355
1,543,671 1,566,529 1,588,428 1,609,027 1,628,074 1,645,795
1,180,672 1,195,215 1,209,640 1,223,955 1,238,294 1,252,654
616,685 632,454 647,721 662,052 675,190 687,427
250,458 256,791 263,009 269,033 274,878 280,596
173,637 177,385 181,130 184,866 188,601 192,336
360,004 370,561 380,760 390,261 398,941 407,027
24 767 794 25 182 269 25 588 546 25 983 588 26 366 533 26 739 379
385,218 389,509 393,579 397,425 401,005 404,319
PRODUCTO BRU
(M
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

576 526 529 713 749 788
576 526 529 713 749 788
2 581 3 136 3 196 4 265 5 002 5 109
2,581 3,136 3,196 4,265 5,002 5,109
657 702 690 514 543 571
657 702 690 514 543 571
5 676 5 814 6 014 5 926 6 427 6 653
5,676 5,814 6,014 5,926 6,427 6,653
1 068 1 074 1 074 1 035 1 096 1 155
1,068 1,074 1,074 1,035 1,096 1,155
3 187 3 442 3 587 3 533 3 900 4 240
3,187 3,442 3,587 3,533 3,900 4,240
2 915 2 895 2 971 2 601 2 496 2 650
2,915 2,895 2,971 2,601 2,496 2,650
1 247 1 239 1 194 1 186 1 167 1 201
1,247 1,239 1,194 1,186 1,167 1,201
1 494 1 482 1 512 1 269 1 295 1 416
1,494 1,482 1,512 1,269 1,295 1,416
2 506 2 616 2 735 2 705 2 882 2 981
2,506 2,616 2,735 2,705 2,882 2,981
3 841 3 971 4 081 3 927 4 044 4 129
3,841 3,971 4,081 3,927 4,044 4,129
4 741 4 735 4 968 4 885 5 202 5 546
4,741 4,735 4,968 4,885 5,202 5,546
3 384 3 570 3 631 3 233 3 391 3 527
3,384 3,570 3,631 3,233 3,391 3,527
53 548 53 416 54 695 56 250 58 410 60 541
53,548 53,416 54,695 56,250 58,410 60,541
2 686 2 610 2 672 2 438 2 557 2 614
2,686 2,610 2,672 2,438 2,557 2,614
390 428 469 409 449 449
390 428 469 409 449 449
1 410 1 558 1 640 1 606 1 872 2 007
1,410 1,558 1,640 1,606 1,872 2,007
1 239 1 303 1 309 1 386 1 512 1 507
1 239 1 303 1 309 1 386 1 512 1 507
4 250 4 201 4 291 4 449 4 575 4 733
4 250 4 201 4 291 4 449 4 575 4 733
2 419 2 488 2 631 2 607 2 801 2 830
2 419 2 488 2 631 2 607 2 801 2 830
1 599 1 664 1 707 1 368 1 416 1 464
1 599 1 664 1 707 1 368 1 416 1 464
1 567 1 664 1 786 1 650 1 718 1 826
1 567 1 664 1 786 1 650 1 718 1 826
512 564 540 518 539 563
512 564 540 518 539 563
1 186 1 209 1 126 1 222 1 282 1 328
1,186 1,209 1,126 1,222 1,282 1,328
208 172 211 405 216 970 218 163 229 364 238 328
9 395 9 167 9 364 9 336 9 734 10 213
2 479 2 174 2 246 2 288 2 351 2 504
116 553 117 587 121 057 229 788 241 449 251 044
-0.56% 0.89% 2.95% 89.82% 5.07% 3.97%
5 625 5 763 5 962 5 874 6 372 6 597
VARIABLE EXPLICAT
Año
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
Elaboración propia
o Nº 1B.- POBLACIÓN TOTAL PROYECTADA POR DEPARTAMENTOS, 1995-2025
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

394,959 397,848 400,668 403,428 406,087 408,629 411,043
1,070,450 1,077,295 1,084,038 1,090,637 1,097,098 1,103,481 1,109,849
427,826 430,539 433,256 436,000 438,761 441,507 444,202
1,128,454 1,141,933 1,155,267 1,168,238 1,180,683 1,192,932 1,205,317
594,733 603,311 611,542 619,437 627,317 635,167 642,972
1,438,547 1,448,651 1,458,379 1,467,758 1,476,708 1,485,188 1,493,159
836,622 851,739 866,877 882,066 897,144 912,065 926,788
1,207,423 1,217,862 1,228,055 1,237,955 1,247,503 1,256,770 1,265,827
447,455 451,519 455,562 459,598 463,651 467,700 471,720
772,600 780,483 788,380 796,330 804,220 811,989 819,578
686,254 695,663 704,822 713,692 722,321 730,767 739,087
1,232,569 1,243,455 1,253,996 1,264,050 1,273,648 1,283,003 1,292,330
1,592,392 1,615,464 1,638,251 1,660,535 1,682,213 1,703,617 1,725,075
1,126,116 1,138,651 1,150,982 1,163,003 1,174,519 1,185,684 1,196,655
8,199,172 8,338,208 8,474,342 8,605,145 8,730,820 8,855,022 8,981,440
890,388 904,035 917,618 931,218 944,717 957,992 970,918
98,690 101,962 105,205 108,412 111,604 114,791 117,981
158,407 160,334 162,237 164,090 165,871 167,616 169,365
274,919 277,491 280,061 282,660 285,291 287,913 290,483
1,662,570 1,678,777 1,694,797 1,710,456 1,725,502 1,740,194 1,754,791
1,266,832 1,280,629 1,293,843 1,306,226 1,317,911 1,329,272 1,340,684
699,146 710,732 722,567 734,689 746,844 758,974 771,021
286,166 291,563 296,767 301,728 306,461 311,038 315,534
196,063 199,771 203,452 207,125 210,798 214,439 218,017
414,704 422,158 429,576 436,967 444,209 451,284 458,177
27 103 457 27 460 073 27 810 540 28 151 443 28 481 901 28 807 034 29 132 013
407,430 410,406 413,308 416,147 418,881 421,494 423,975
PRODUCTO BRUTO INTERNO POR DEPARTAMENTOS

(Millones de Nuevos Soles de 1994)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

828 886 948 1 019 1 097 1 122 1 209
828 886 948 1,019 1,107 1,183 1,271
5 253 5 420 5 550 5 933 6 458 6 453 6 647
5,253 5,420 5,550 5,933 6,378 6,238 6,125
603 647 706 725 747 787 869
603 647 706 725 672 646 703
7 015 7 495 7 953 9 193 9 995 10 038 10 832
7,015 7,495 7,953 9,193 10,214 10,224 10,848
1 146 1 251 1 367 1 536 1 677 1 856 1 975
1,146 1,251 1,367 1,536 1,668 1,783 1,915
4 300 4 616 4 570 4 230 4 596 4 912 4 876
4,300 4,616 4,570 4,230 4,593 4,910 5,274
3 124 3 399 3 802 4 166 4 467 4 638 5 320
3,124 3,399 3,802 4,166 4,525 4,837 5,195
1 218 1 305 1 385 1 346 1 384 1 448 1 488
1,218 1,305 1,385 1,346 1,462 1,563 1,678
1 456 1 490 1 525 1 562 1 665 1 674 1 795
1,456 1,490 1,525 1,562 1,696 1,813 1,947
3 244 3 675 3 984 4 352 5 309 5 499 6 002
3,244 3,675 3,984 4,352 4,726 5,053 5,426
4 386 4 395 4 874 5 187 5 619 5 473 5 902
4,386 4,395 4,874 5,187 5,633 6,022 6,467
5 509 6 057 7 001 7 714 8 304 8 483 9 193
5,509 6,057 7,001 7,714 8,378 8,956 9,619
3 370 3 641 3 838 4 245 4 602 4 751 5 140
3,370 3,641 3,838 4,245 4,636 4,886 5,233
63 640 68 043 74 159 82 029 90 970 91 432 100 396
63,640 68,043 74,159 82,029 89,084 95,231 102,278
2 707 2 825 2 972 3 105 3 259 3 343 3 583
2,707 2,825 2,972 3,105 3,372 3,605 3,871
494 544 565 627 675 680 745
494 544 565 627 681 728 782
2 157 2 252 2 263 2 257 2 380 2 356 2 478
2,157 2,252 2,263 2,257 2,600 2,527 2,528
1 564 1 581 1 713 1 915 1 937 1 850 1 825
1 564 1 581 1 713 1 915 2,079 2,223 2,387
5 119 5 409 5 939 6 523 6 973 7 134 7 534
5 119 5 409 5 939 6 523 7,084 7,573 8,133
2 907 3 060 3 214 3 449 3 631 3 774 4 061
2 907 3 060 3 214 3 449 3,708 3,863 4,099
1 587 1 729 1 819 1 983 2 178 2 261 2 441
1 587 1 729 1 819 1 983 2,154 2,302 2,473
1 937 2 013 2 094 2 224 2 320 2 265 2 522
1 937 2 013 2 094 2 224 2,415 2,582 2,773
603 689 665 722 771 791 880
603 689 665 722 784 839 901
1 440 1 540 1 640 1 709 1 808 1 861 1 958
1,440 1,540 1,640 1,709 1,797 1,815 1,881
249 775 266 382 287 454 313 794 342 468 354 465 381 598
10 697 11 504 12 508 13 656 15 206 15 538
2 837 3 174 3 091 2 941 3 341 2 729
263 309 281 061 303 052 330 391 361 016 372 732
4.89% 6.74% 7.82% 9.02% 9.27% 3.25% 7.7%
6 957 7 433 7 885 9 110 10 123 10 132 10 748
VARIABLE EXPLICATIVA: POBLACION REGIONAL
AREQUIPA MOQUEGUA AREA9
1,014,592 142,028 1,004,164

1,032,861 144,672 1,022,247
1,050,860 147,263 1,040,062
1,068,260 149,762 1,057,284
1,084,725 152,129 1,073,580
1,100,094 154,339 1,088,792
1,114,590 156,420 1,103,139
1,128,454 158,407 1,116,862
1,141,933 160,334 1,130,202
1,155,267 162,237 1,143,400
1,168,238 164,090 1,156,238
1,180,683 165,871 1,168,556
1,192,932 167,616 1,180,679
1,205,317 169,365 1,192,937
1,218,168 171,155 1,205,656
1,231,553 172,995 1,218,903
1,245,251 174,859 1,232,459
1,259,162 176,736 1,246,227
1,273,180 178,612 1,260,099
1,287,205 180,477 1,273,979
1,301,298 182,333 1,287,926
1,315,528 184,187 1,302,008
1,329,802 186,036 1,316,134
1,344,026 187,876 1,330,210
1,358,108 189,701 1,344,145
1,372,075 191,511 1,357,967
1,385,992 193,308 1,371,739
1,399,813 195,094 1,385,416
1,413,497 196,873 1,398,958
1,427,001 198,646 1,412,322
1,440,951 200,457 1,426,126
1,454,717 202,263 1,439,750
1,468,938 204,107 1,453,823
1,482,971 205,945 1,467,710
1,497,468 207,823 1,482,057
1,511,775 209,695 1,496,214
1,526,553 211,607 1,510,839
1,541,137 213,513 1,525,271
1,556,203 215,460 1,540,180
1,571,070 217,400 1,554,893
1,586,428 219,382 1,570,091
1,601,584 221,358 1,585,090
1,617,241 223,377 1,600,583
1,632,691 225,388 1,615,873
1,648,652 227,443 1,631,668
1,664,402 229,492 1,647,255
1,680,673 231,584 1,663,356
1,696,729 233,670 1,679,245
1,713,316 235,801 1,695,659
1,729,684 237,924 1,711,857
1,746,593 240,094 1,728,590
Elaboración propia
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
413,314 415,466 417,508 419,404 421,122 422,629 423,898
1,116,265 1,122,792 1,129,391 1,135,962 1,142,409 1,148,634 1,154,639
446,813 449,365 451,881 454,324 456,652 458,830 460,868
1,218,168 1,231,553 1,245,251 1,259,162 1,273,180 1,287,205 1,301,298
650,718 658,400 666,029 673,609 681,149 688,657 696,152
1,500,584 1,507,486 1,513,892 1,519,764 1,525,064 1,529,755 1,533,783
941,268 955,385 969,170 982,800 996,455 1,010,315 1,024,439
1,274,742 1,283,540 1,292,175 1,300,609 1,308,806 1,316,729 1,324,371
475,693 479,641 483,580 487,472 491,278 494,963 498,556
826,932 834,054 840,984 847,714 854,234 860,537 866,631
747,338 755,508 763,558 771,507 779,372 787,170 794,919
1,301,844 1,311,584 1,321,407 1,331,253 1,341,064 1,350,783 1,360,506
1,746,913 1,769,181 1,791,659 1,814,276 1,836,960 1,859,640 1,882,405
1,207,589 1,218,492 1,229,260 1,239,882 1,250,349 1,260,650 1,270,794
9,113,684 9,252,401 9,395,149 9,540,996 9,689,011 9,838,251 9,989,369
983,371 995,355 1,006,953 1,018,160 1,028,968 1,039,372 1,049,364
121,183 124,404 127,639 130,876 134,105 137,316 140,508
171,155 172,995 174,859 176,736 178,612 180,477 182,333
292,955 295,315 297,591 299,807 301,988 304,158 306,322
1,769,555 1,784,551 1,799,607 1,814,622 1,829,496 1,844,129 1,858,617
1,352,523 1,364,752 1,377,122 1,389,684 1,402,496 1,415,608 1,429,098
782,932 794,730 806,452 818,061 829,520 840,790 851,883
320,021 324,498 328,915 333,276 337,583 341,838 346,013
221,498 224,895 228,227 231,480 234,638 237,685 240,590
464,875 471,351 477,616 483,708 489,664 495,522 501,269
29 461 933 29 797 694 30 135 875 30 475 144 30 814 175 31 151 643 31 488 625
426,307 428,516 430,610 432,554 434,315 435,860 437,162
2011 2012 2013

1 283 1 462 1 536
1,331 1,485 1,565
6 719 7 019 7 377
6,174 6,761 7,011
941 1 053 1 107
744 836 934
11 353 12 337 12 966
11,325 11,891 12,153
2 010 2 263 2 379
2,005 2,237 2,358
5 020 5 279 5 548
5,522 6,162 6,495
6 002 6 315 6 637
5,439 6,070 6,398
1 575 1 652 1 736
1,757 1,961 2,067
1 908 2 077 2 183
2,039 2,275 2,398
6 340 6 614 6 952
5,682 6,341 6,683
6 274 6 635 6 974
6,771 7,557 7,965
9 615 10 206 10 726
10,071 11,239 11,846
5 432 5 904 6 206
5,521 6,040 6,342
108 673 115 208 121 084
107,085 119,507 125,960
3 868 4 025 4 230
4,053 4,524 4,768
829 688 724
818 913 963
2 382 2 500 2 627
2,326 2,354 2,650
1 841 1 909 2 006
2,499 2,789 2,940
8 100 8 695 9 138
8,516 9,503 10,017
4 252 4 469 4 697
4,349 4,558 4,872
2 572 2 756 2 897
2,589 2,889 3,045
2 634 2 774 2 915
2,903 3,240 3,415
943 1 007 1 059
943 1,052 1,109
1 961 2 188 2 300
1,975 2,149 2,211
402 987 437 218 459 954
5.6% 8.5% 5.2%

11 217 11 777 12 039
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
424,952 425,829 426,566 427,202 427,701 428,036 428,264
1,160,490 1,166,182 1,171,714 1,177,080 1,182,255 1,187,242 1,192,080
462,791 464,584 466,228 467,707 469,020 470,181 471,187
1,315,528 1,329,802 1,344,026 1,358,108 1,372,075 1,385,992 1,399,813
703,629 711,058 718,408 725,649 732,783 739,831 746,788
1,537,172 1,540,004 1,542,362 1,544,325 1,545,803 1,546,741 1,547,280
1,038,706 1,053,029 1,067,320 1,081,491 1,095,574 1,109,628 1,123,602
1,331,758 1,338,898 1,345,801 1,352,476 1,358,884 1,365,018 1,370,940
502,084 505,498 508,751 511,794 514,648 517,343 519,850
872,523 878,199 883,644 888,845 893,789 898,486 902,955
802,610 810,213 817,700 825,042 832,239 839,311 846,257
1,370,274 1,379,937 1,389,349 1,398,361 1,407,037 1,415,479 1,423,587
1,905,301 1,928,197 1,950,956 1,973,446 1,995,707 2,017,827 2,039,747
1,280,788 1,290,617 1,300,270 1,309,731 1,318,979 1,328,021 1,336,892
10,143,003 10,298,159 10,453,874 10,609,166 10,764,428 10,920,309 11,076,223
1,058,946 1,068,132 1,076,937 1,085,375 1,093,410 1,101,030 1,108,292
143,687 146,856 150,015 153,164 156,299 159,422 162,535
184,187 186,036 187,876 189,701 191,511 193,308 195,094
308,465 310,578 312,652 314,677 316,652 318,583 320,473
1,873,024 1,887,210 1,901,032 1,914,346 1,927,201 1,939,694 1,951,751
1,442,930 1,456,989 1,471,160 1,485,328 1,499,533 1,513,851 1,528,223
862,822 873,593 884,179 894,564 904,738 914,710 924,495
350,105 354,158 358,218 362,331 366,457 370,564 374,714
243,362 246,050 248,701 251,363 253,998 256,574 259,149
506,881 512,376 517,771 523,086 528,295 533,388 538,398
31 826 018 32 162 184 32 495 510 32 824 358 33 149 016 33 470 569 33 788 589
438,244 439,144 439,900 440,552 441,063 441,405 441,637
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
428,437 428,603 428,776 428,942 429,116 429,282 429,455
1,196,808 1,201,465 1,206,230 1,210,924 1,215,727 1,220,457 1,225,298
472,039 472,737 473,592 474,292 475,150 475,852 476,713
1,413,497 1,427,001 1,440,951 1,454,717 1,468,938 1,482,971 1,497,468
753,651 760,414 767,402 774,289 781,404 788,416 795,662
1,547,552 1,547,694 1,547,966 1,548,108 1,548,380 1,548,522 1,548,795
1,137,453 1,151,132 1,165,322 1,179,337 1,193,875 1,208,232 1,223,126
1,376,706 1,382,372 1,388,186 1,393,899 1,399,762 1,405,523 1,411,434
522,141 524,187 526,497 528,560 530,890 532,970 535,319
907,214 911,280 915,578 919,682 924,020 928,161 932,539
853,080 859,784 866,716 873,527 880,570 887,490 894,646
1,431,265 1,438,414 1,446,172 1,453,395 1,461,234 1,468,533 1,476,453
2,061,403 2,082,737 2,104,849 2,126,633 2,149,212 2,171,454 2,194,509
1,345,628 1,354,261 1,363,110 1,371,856 1,380,820 1,389,679 1,398,760
11,231,595 11,385,860 11,545,575 11,704,153 11,868,333 12,031,344 12,200,114
1,115,248 1,121,953 1,128,995 1,135,782 1,142,911 1,149,782 1,156,999
165,648 168,768 172,000 175,240 178,596 181,960 185,445
196,873 198,646 200,457 202,263 204,107 205,945 207,823
322,323 324,137 326,008 327,843 329,735 331,591 333,505
1,963,298 1,974,262 1,985,942 1,997,033 2,008,848 2,020,066 2,032,017
1,542,587 1,556,885 1,571,518 1,586,085 1,600,992 1,615,832 1,631,019
934,114 943,582 953,400 963,063 973,083 982,946 993,174
378,963 383,370 387,717 392,226 396,674 401,286 405,837
261,778 264,519 267,202 270,000 272,739 275,595 278,391
543,367 548,330 553,391 558,445 563,599 568,747 573,996
34 102 668 34 412 393 34 412 394 34 412 395 34 412 396 34 412 397 34 412 398
441,811 441,977 442,151 442,317 442,491 442,657 442,832
2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
429,622 429,795 429,962 430,135 430,302 430,476 430,643
1,230,066 1,234,944 1,239,750 1,244,667 1,249,510 1,254,466 1,259,347
477,418 478,281 478,988 479,854 480,564 481,433 482,145
1,511,775 1,526,553 1,541,137 1,556,203 1,571,070 1,586,428 1,601,584
802,802 810,180 817,450 824,962 832,365 840,015 847,553
1,548,937 1,549,209 1,549,351 1,549,623 1,549,766 1,550,038 1,550,180
1,237,836 1,253,095 1,268,165 1,283,798 1,299,237 1,315,253 1,331,070
1,417,243 1,423,204 1,429,061 1,435,072 1,440,978 1,447,039 1,452,994
537,416 539,785 541,900 544,288 546,421 548,829 550,979
936,718 941,137 945,355 949,814 954,071 958,571 962,867
901,676 908,946 916,089 923,475 930,732 938,236 945,610
1,483,828 1,491,831 1,499,282 1,507,369 1,514,898 1,523,068 1,530,676
2,217,220 2,240,760 2,263,951 2,287,987 2,311,666 2,336,209 2,360,387
1,407,734 1,416,933 1,426,023 1,435,342 1,444,550 1,453,990 1,463,318
12,367,681 12,541,169 12,713,421 12,891,759 13,068,826 13,252,149 13,434,167
1,163,955 1,171,260 1,178,302 1,185,697 1,192,826 1,200,312 1,207,529
188,938 192,557 196,184 199,941 203,707 207,609 211,519
209,695 211,607 213,513 215,460 217,400 219,382 221,358
335,382 337,318 339,217 341,175 343,095 345,076 347,018
2,043,365 2,055,454 2,066,932 2,079,161 2,090,772 2,103,141 2,114,886
1,646,137 1,661,609 1,677,010 1,692,773 1,708,463 1,724,521 1,740,505
1,003,240 1,013,678 1,023,953 1,034,607 1,045,093 1,055,967 1,066,670
410,556 415,212 420,040 424,803 429,743 434,616 439,671
281,306 284,160 287,135 290,048 293,085 296,058 299,158
579,239 584,585 589,924 595,369 600,807 606,352 611,890
34 412 399 34 412 400 34 412 401 34 412 402 34 412 403 34 412 404 34 412 405
442,998 443,173 443,339 443,514 443,680 443,855 444,022
2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044
430,817 430,984 431,158 431,325 431,499 431,666 431,840
1,264,342 1,269,262 1,274,296 1,279,254 1,284,328 1,289,326 1,294,439
483,016 483,731 484,605 485,322 486,200 486,918 487,799
1,617,241 1,632,691 1,648,652 1,664,402 1,680,673 1,696,729 1,713,316
855,342 863,017 870,948 878,764 886,840 894,798 903,021
1,550,453 1,550,595 1,550,868 1,551,010 1,551,283 1,551,425 1,551,698
1,347,478 1,363,683 1,380,494 1,397,096 1,414,318 1,431,327 1,448,971
1,459,105 1,465,110 1,471,272 1,477,327 1,483,541 1,489,647 1,495,912
553,408 555,576 558,025 560,211 562,680 564,885 567,374
967,408 971,744 976,328 980,703 985,329 989,745 994,414
953,234 960,725 968,471 976,081 983,951 991,684 999,679
1,538,931 1,546,618 1,554,960 1,562,727 1,571,155 1,579,003 1,587,519
2,385,447 2,410,135 2,435,723 2,460,931 2,487,059 2,512,798 2,539,476
1,472,880 1,482,329 1,492,016 1,501,588 1,511,400 1,521,097 1,531,036
13,622,615 13,809,720 14,003,436 14,195,772 14,394,904 14,592,617 14,797,315
1,215,108 1,222,413 1,230,085 1,237,481 1,245,247 1,252,734 1,260,597
215,570 219,630 223,837 228,053 232,421 236,799 241,334
223,377 225,388 227,443 229,492 231,584 233,670 235,801
349,021 350,985 353,011 354,998 357,047 359,057 361,129
2,127,399 2,139,279 2,151,935 2,163,953 2,176,755 2,188,911 2,201,861
1,756,865 1,773,149 1,789,815 1,806,404 1,823,383 1,840,284 1,857,581
1,077,768 1,088,692 1,100,020 1,111,169 1,122,731 1,134,111 1,145,910
444,656 449,827 454,928 460,218 465,437 470,849 476,188
302,193 305,357 308,455 311,685 314,847 318,143 321,371
617,537 623,178 628,929 634,674 640,531 646,382 652,347
34 412 406 34 412 407 34 412 408 34 412 409 34 412 410 34 412 411 34 412 412
444,197 444,363 444,539 444,705 444,881 445,048 445,223
2045 2046
432,008 432,182
1,299,476 1,304,630
488,520 489,404
1,729,684 1,746,593
911,125 919,498
1,551,840 1,552,113
1,466,396 1,484,473
1,502,068 1,508,386
569,598 572,108
998,870 1,003,582
1,007,535 1,015,658
1,595,448 1,604,053
2,565,758 2,592,999
1,540,859 1,550,928
15,000,555 15,210,976
1,268,175 1,276,135
245,879 250,589
237,924 240,094
363,162 365,258
2,214,158 2,227,257
1,874,798 1,892,420
1,157,525 1,169,569
481,726 487,189
324,736 328,030
658,306 664,381
34 412 413 34 412 414
445,390 445,566
Encuesta de Expectativas Macroeconómicas del PBI 1/
Fecha Analistas Sistema

de encuesta Económicos Financiero
Expectativas anuales de 1999
31 de julio de 1999 2.6%

31 de agosto de 1999 3.0%
30 de setiembre de 1999 3.0%
31 de octubre de 1999 2.8%
30 de noviembre de 1999 2.7%
31 de diciembre de 1999
Expectativas anuales del 2000
31 de julio de 1999 4.5%

31 de agosto de 1999 4.2%
30 de setiembre de 1999 4.5%
31 de octubre de 1999 4.4%
30 de noviembre de 1999 4.0%
31 de diciembre de 1999 4.0%
31 de enero del 2000 4.0%
28 de febrero del 2000 4.2%
31 de marzo del 2000 4.5%
30 de abril del 2000 4.4%
31 de mayo del 2000 4.5%
30 de junio del 2000 4.5%
31 de julio del 2000 4.5%
31 de agosto del 2000 4.5%
30 de setiembre del 2000 4.5%
31 de octubre del 2000 4.1%
30 de noviembre del 2000 4.0%
31 de diciembre del 2000 3.8%

28 de mayo del 2001 1.0%

28 de mayo del 2001 3.5%
27 de marzo del 2002 3.5% 3.1%
30 de abril del 2002 3.4% 3.1%
30 de mayo del 2002 3.1% 3.0%
28 de junio del 2002 3.0% 3.0%
31 de julio del 2002 3.2% 3.0%
29 de agosto del 2002 3.1% 3.0%
30 de setiembre del 2002 3.4% 3.0%
31 de octubre del 2002 3.8% 3.5%
29 de noviembre del 2002 4.3% 3.9%
31 de diciembre del 2002 4.6% 4.3%
28 de febrero del 2002 4.5% 3.5%

30 de marzo del 2002 4.5% 3.5%
30 de abril del 2002 4.1% 3.5%
30 de mayo del 2002 4.0% 3.5%
28 de junio del 2002 3.9% 3.5%
31 de julio del 2002 3.5% 3.3%
29 de agosto del 2002 3.3% 3.1%
31 de octubre del 2002 3.0% 3.0%
31 de enero del 2003 4.0% 4.0%
28 de febrero del 2003 4.0% 4.0%
31 de marzo del 2003 4.0% 4.0%
30 de abril del 2003 4.0% 4.0%
30 de mayo del 2003 3.8% 4.0%
30 de junio del 2003 3.6% 3.9%
31 de julio del 2003 3.7% 3.8%
28 de agosto del 2003 3.9% 3.8%
31 de octubre del 2003 3.8% 3.8%
28 de noviembre 2003 4.0% 3.9%
31 de diciembre del 2002 n.d. n.d.

31 de enero del 2003 4.0% 4.0%
28 de febrero del 2003 4.0% 4.0%
31 de marzo del 2003 4.0% 4.0%
30 de abril del 2003 4.0% 4.0%
30 de mayo del 2003 4.0% 4.0%
30 de junio del 2003 4.0% 4.0%
31 de julio del 2003 3.8% 3.8%
28 de agosto del 2003 4.0% 4.0%
31 de octubre del 2003 4.0% 4.0%
31 de enero del 2004 4.0% 4.0%
28 de febrero del 2004 4.1% 4.0%
31 de marzo del 2004 4.0% 4.0%
30 de abril del 2004 4.1% 4.0%
30 de mayo del 2004 4.3% 4.0%
30 de junio del 2004 4.5% 4.2%
31 de julio del 2004 4.5% 4.2%
28 de agosto del 2004 4.4% 4.3%
31 de octubre del 2004 4.5% 4.4%

31 de enero del 2004 4.0% 3.9%
28 de febrero del 2004 4.0% 4.0%
31 de marzo del 2004 4.0% 4.0%
30 de abril del 2004 4.1% 4.0%
30 de mayo del 2004 4.1% 4.0%
30 de junio del 2004 4.3% 4.0%
31 de julio del 2004 4.1% 4.0%
28 de agosto del 2004 4.1% 4.1%
31 de octubre del 2004 4.5% 4.3%
31 de enero del 2005 4.5% 4.5%
28 de febrero del 2005 4.5% 4.5%
31 de marzo del 2005 4.6% 4.5%
29 de abril del 2005 5.0% 4.5%
31 de mayo del 2005 5.0% 4.8%
30 de junio del 2005 5.0% 5.0%
27 de julio del 2005 5.3% 5.0%
31 de agosto del 2005 5.5% 5.3%
28 de octubre del 2005 5.6% 5.5%

31 de enero del 2005 4.1% 4.5%
28 de febrero del 2005 4.0% 4.5%
31 de marzo del 2005 4.0% 4.3%
29 de abril del 2005 4.5% 4.2%
31 de mayo del 2005 4.5% 4.2%
30 de junio del 2005 4.5% 4.5%
27 de julio del 2005 4.5% 4.5%
31 de agosto del 2005 4.6% 4.9%
28 de octubre del 2005 4.7% 4.9%
31 de enero del 2006 5.0% 5.0%
28 de febrero del 2006 5.0% 5.0%
31 de marzo del 2006 4.8% 5.0%
28 de abril del 2006 5.0% 5.0%
31 de mayo del 2006 5.3% 5.6%
28 de junio del 2006 5.5% 5.5%
31 de julio del 2006 5.8% 5.6%
31 de agosto del 2006 6.0% 6.0%
31 de octubre del 2006 7.0% 7.0%
31 de enero del 2006 5.0% 5.0%

28 de febrero del 2006 5.0% 5.0%
31 de marzo del 2006 5.0% 5.0%
28 de abril del 2006 5.0% 5.0%
31 de mayo del 2006 5.0% 5.0%
28 de junio del 2006 5.0% 5.4%
31 de julio del 2006 5.1% 5.4%
31 de agosto del 2006 5.1% 5.9%
31 de octubre del 2006 5.8% 6.0%
31 de enero del 2007 6.8% 6.5%
28 de febrero del 2007 6.8% 6.8%
30 de marzo del 2007 7.3% 7.0%
27 de abril del 2007 7.2% 7.0%
31 de mayo del 2007 7.4% 7.1%
27 de junio del 2007 7.5% 7.4%
31 de julio del 2007 7.5% 7.5%
31 de agosto del 2007 7.3% 7.2%
31 de octubre del 2007 7.5% 7.5%
31 de enero del 2007 6.0% 6.1%

28 de febrero del 2007 6.0% 6.3%
30 de marzo del 2007 6.0% 6.3%
27 de abril del 2007 6.1% 6.3%
31 de mayo del 2007 6.3% 6.5%
27 de junio del 2007 6.4% 6.5%
31 de julio del 2007 6.5% 6.5%
31 de agosto del 2007 6.5% 6.5%
31 de octubre del 2007 6.5% 6.5%
31 de enero del 2008 7.0% 7.0%
29 de febrero del 2008 6.8% 7.5%
31 de marzo del 2008 7.0% 7.5%
30 de abril del 2008 7.7% 8.0%
30 de mayo del 2008 7.6% 7.8%
30 de junio del 2008 8.0% 8.3%
31 de julio del 2008 8.2% 8.5%
29 de agosto del 2008 8.7% 9.0%
31 de octubre del 2008 9.0% 9.0%
30 de enero del 2009 9.3% 9.1%
30 de marzo del 2007 5.8% 6.0%

27 de abril del 2007 5.9% 6.0%
31 de mayo del 2007 6.0% 6.0%
27 de junio del 2007 6.0% 6.0%
31 de julio del 2007 6.0% 6.0%
31 de agosto del 2007 6.0% 6.0%
31 de octubre del 2007 6.0% 6.3%
31 de enero del 2008 6.2% 6.5%
29 de febrero del 2008 6.1% 6.5%
31 de marzo del 2008 6.5% 6.5%
30 de abril del 2008 6.6% 6.5%
30 de mayo del 2008 6.6% 7.0%
30 de junio del 2008 7.0% 7.0%
31 de julio del 2008 6.9% 7.0%
29 de agosto del 2008 7.2% 7.1%
31 de octubre del 2008 6.4% 6.4%
30 de enero del 2009 5.4% 5.3%
27 de febrero del 2009 5.0% 5.0%
31 de marzo del 2009 4.5% 4.0%
30 de abril del 2009 3.4% 3.0%
29 de mayo del 2009 3.2% 3.0%
30 de junio del 2009 2.6% 3.0%
31 de julio del 2009 2.0% 2.5%
31 de agosto del 2009 1.8% 2.0%
30 de octubre del 2009 1.5% 1.5%
29 de enero del 2010 0.9% 1.0%

31 de enero del 2008 6.2% 6.1%
29 de febrero del 2008 6.0% 6.5%
31 de marzo del 2008 6.5% 6.2%
30 de abril del 2008 6.4% 6.2%
30 de mayo del 2008 6.5% 6.5%
30 de junio del 2008 7.0% 6.5%
31 de julio del 2008 6.9% 7.0%
29 de agosto del 2008 7.3% 6.5%
31 de octubre del 2008 6.5% 6.0%
30 de enero del 2009 5.6% 5.7%
27 de febrero del 2009 5.5% 5.5%
31 de marzo del 2009 5.1% 5.0%
30 de abril del 2009 4.9% 4.5%
29 de mayo del 2009 4.5% 4.5%
30 de junio del 2009 4.0% 4.2%
31 de julio del 2009 4.0% 4.2%
31 de agosto del 2009 4.0% 4.3%
30 de octubre del 2009 4.3% 4.2%
29 de enero del 2010 4.5% 4.5%
26 de febrero del 2010 4.5% 5.0%
31 de marzo del 2010 4.9% 5.0%
30 de abril del 2010 5.5% 5.5%
31 de mayo del 2010 6.0% 6.0%
30 de junio del 2010 6.5% 6.0%
31 de julio del 2010 6.8% 6.8%
31 de agosto del 2010 7.5% 7.0%
31 de octubre del 2010 8.0% 8.0%
31 de enero del 2011 8.7% 8.6%
27 de febrero del 2009 6.0% 6.4%

31 de marzo del 2009 6.0% 5.8%
30 de abril del 2009 5.0% 5.5%
29 de mayo del 2009 5.5% 5.4%
30 de junio del 2009 5.0% 5.0%
31 de julio del 2009 5.0% 5.5%
31 de agosto del 2009 5.0% 5.2%
30 de octubre del 2009 5.0% 5.0%
29 de enero del 2010 5.0% 5.0%
26 de febrero del 2010 5.0% 5.0%
31 de marzo del 2010 5.0% 5.3%
30 de abril del 2010 5.4% 5.2%
31 de mayo del 2010 5.5% 6.0%
30 de junio del 2010 6.0% 5.5%
31 de julio del 2010 5.9% 5.5%
31 de agosto del 2010 5.7% 6.0%
31 de octubre del 2010 6.0% 6.0%
31 de enero del 2011 7.0% 6.5%
28 de febrero del 2011 7.0% 7.0%
31 de marzo del 2011 7.1% 7.0%
30 de abril del 2011 7.0% 7.0%
31 de mayo del 2011 6.6% 6.6%
30 de junio del 2011 6.5% 6.5%
31 de julio del 2011 6.5% 6.5%
31 de agosto del 2011 6.1% 6.3%
31 de octubre del 2011 6.5% 6.5%
31 de enero del 2012 6.8% 6.7%
26 de febrero del 2010 5.6% 5.5%

31 de marzo del 2010 5.8% 5.6%
30 de abril del 2010 6.0% 5.8%
31 de mayo del 2010 6.0% 6.0%
30 de junio del 2010 6.0% 6.0%
31 de julio del 2010 6.0% 6.0%
31 de agosto del 2010 6.0% 6.0%
31 de octubre del 2010 6.0% 6.0%
31 de enero del 2011 6.8% 6.2%
31 de marzo del 2011 6.5% 6.3%
28 de febrero del 2011 6.5% 6.5%
30 de abril del 2011 6.5% 6.5%
31 de mayo del 2011 6.5% 6.3%
30 de junio del 2011 6.0% 6.0%
31 de julio del 2011 6.0% 6.3%
31 de agosto del 2011 5.6% 5.8%
31 de octubre del 2011 5.5% 5.5%
31 de enero del 2012 5.0% 5.2%
29 de febrero del 2012 5.0% 5.3%
31 de marzo del 2012 5.5% 5.5%
30 de abril del 2012 5.8% 6.0%
31 de mayo del 2012 6.0% 6.0%
30 de junio del 2012 5.9% 6.0%
31 de julio del 2012 5.7% 6.0%
31 de agosto del 2012 5.8% 6.0%
31 de octubre del 2012 6.2% 6.1%
31 de enero del 2012 6.4% 6.3%

28 de febrero del 2011 6.5% 6.0%
31 de marzo del 2011 6.5% 6.5%
30 de abril del 2011 6.3% 6.5%
31 de mayo del 2011 6.5% 6.0%
30 de junio del 2011 6.0% 6.0%
31 de julio del 2011 6.0% 6.0%
31 de agosto del 2011 5.9% 6.0%
31 de octubre del 2011 5.9% 5.9%
31 de enero del 2012 5.5% 5.7%
29 de febrero del 2012 5.6% 5.6%
31 de marzo del 2012 6.0% 5.7%
30 de abril del 2012 6.2% 6.0%
31 de mayo del 2012 6.0% 6.0%
30 de junio del 2012 6.1% 6.0%
31 de julio del 2012 6.0% 6.0%
31 de agosto del 2012 5.9% 6.0%
31 de octubre del 2012 6.0% 6.0%
31 de enero del 2013 6.3% 6.3%
28 de febrero del 2013 6.3% 6.3%
31 de marzo del 2013 6.3% 6.3%
30 de abril del 2013 6.2% 6.0%
31 de mayo del 2013 6.0% 6.0%
30 de junio del 2013 5.9% 6.0%
31 de julio del 2013 5.7% 5.8%
31 de agosto del 2013 5.5% 5.5%
31 de octubre del 2013 5.2% 5.3%
31 de enero del 2014 5.0% 5.0%

29 de febrero del 2012 6.0% 6.0%
31 de marzo del 2012 6.0% 6.0%
30 de abril del 2012 6.0% 6.0%
31 de mayo del 2012 6.2% 6.0%
30 de junio del 2012 6.3% 6.0%
31 de julio del 2012 6.0% 6.0%
31 de agosto del 2012 6.0% 6.0%
31 de octubre del 2012 6.0% 6.0%
31 de enero del 2013 6.3% 6.2%
28 de febrero del 2013 6.5% 6.1%
31 de marzo del 2013 6.4% 6.3%
30 de abril del 2013 6.3% 6.0%
31 de mayo del 2013 6.1% 6.0%
30 de junio del 2013 6.2% 6.0%
31 de julio del 2013 6.0% 5.8%
31 de agosto del 2013 5.8% 5.7%
31 de octubre del 2013 5.7% 5.5%
31 de enero del 2014 5.6% 5.6%
28 de febrero del 2014 5.6% 5.5%
31 de marzo del 2014 5.4% 5.4%
30 de abril del 2014 5.3% 5.5%
30 de mayo de 2014 5.2% 5.2%
30 de junio de 2014 5.0% 4.8%
30 de julio de 2014 4.1% 4.3%
29 de agosto de 2014 3.9% 4.0%
26 de setiembre de 2014 3.5% 3.7%
31 de octubre de 2014 3.0% 3.0%
28 de noviembre de 2014 2.8% 2.9%
31 de diciembre de 2014 2.6% 2.8%

28 de febrero del 2013 6.0% 6.0%
31 de marzo del 2013 6.0% 6.0%
30 de abril del 2013 6.0% 6.0%
31 de mayo del 2013 6.0% 6.0%
30 de junio del 2013 6.0% 6.0%
31 de julio del 2013 6.0% 5.9%
31 de agosto del 2013 6.0% 5.9%
31 de octubre del 2013 6.0% 6.0%
31 de enero del 2014 6.0% 5.8%
28 de febrero del 2014 5.9% 5.7%
31 de marzo del 2014 5.7% 5.5%
30 de abril del 2014 5.6% 5.5%
30 de mayo de 2014 5.7% 5.5%
30 de junio de 2014 5.7% 5.4%
30 de julio de 2014 5.5% 5.4%
29 de agosto de 2014 5.5% 5.4%
26 de setiembre de 2014 5.3% 5.0%
31 de octubre de 2014 4.9% 4.5%
28 de noviembre de 2014 4.8% 4.7%
31 de diciembre de 2014 4.5% 4.5%
30 de enero de 2015 4.0% 4.0%
27 de febrero de 2015 3.9% 4.0%
31 de marzo de 2015 3.6% 3.5%

28 de febrero del 2014 6.0% 5.6%
31 de marzo del 2014 5.9% 5.5%
30 de abril del 2014 6.0% 5.5%
30 de mayo de 2014 6.0% 5.5%
30 de junio de 2014 6.0% 5.2%
30 de julio de 2014 5.9% 5.5%
29 de agosto de 2014 5.7% 5.5%
26 de setiembre de 2014 5.5% 5.5%
31 de octubre de 2014 5.3% 5.0%
28 de noviembre de 2014 5.3% 5.3%
31 de diciembre de 2014 5.2% 5.0%
30 de enero de 2015 5.0% 5.0%
27 de febrero de 2015 4.9% 4.5%
31 de marzo de 2015 4.8% 4.5%

27 de febrero de 2015 5.0% 5.0%
31 de marzo de 2015 5.0% 5.0%
1/ Mediana.
Fuente: Encuesta de expectativas macroeconómicas BCRP.
Elaboración: Departamento de Indicadores de Actividad Económica.
1/
Empresas
No Financieras
1.0%
0.8%
0.8%
3.5%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.2%
3.5%
n.d.
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.7%
3.8%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
n.d.
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.2%
4.2%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.2%
4.3%
4.4%
4.3%
4.3%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.8%
5.0%
5.0%
5.5%
5.5%
5.7%
5.8%
4.2%
4.1%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.8%
4.9%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.1%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.8%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.2%
6.5%
7.0%
7.0%
5.7%
5.8%
5.5%
5.5%
6.0%
6.0%
5.8%
6.0%
6.0%
6.2%
6.5%
6.8%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.3%
7.4%
7.5%
7.5%
7.5%
7.5%
7.5%
7.5%
7.8%
6.5%
6.8%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.4%
7.5%
7.6%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
8.2%
8.5%
8.5%
8.5%
8.5%
n.d.
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.5%
7.0%
7.5%
7.2%
7.0%
7.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
4.0%
4.0%
3.3%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
1.6%
1.2%
1.1%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.5%
5.0%
5.0%
4.5%
5.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.2%
4.0%
4.0%
4.5%
4.5%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.2%
8.5%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.5%
6.6%
6.5%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
6.5%
6.5%
6.5%
6.0%
6.0%
6.5%
6.5%
6.2%
6.0%
5.5%
5.5%
5.9%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.5%
6.5%
6.5%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
6.4%
6.5%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.5%
5.5%
5.8%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.6%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.5%
6.5%
7.0%
6.0%
6.5%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.2%
6.1%
6.2%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.5%
5.5%
5.4%
5.1%
5.3%
5.2%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.1%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.6%
5.6%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.2%
5.5%
5.2%
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
3.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.9%
5.8%
5.8%
6.0%
6.0%
5.7%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
4.8%
4.5%
4.5%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
6.0%
5.8%
5.8%
5.7%
5.5%
5.3%
5.1%
5.2%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
4.5%
4.2%
4.2%
5.0%
5.0%
Año
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
Component
Component
e TC proyecc PBI A9 Var %
e Cíclico 1
Tendencial
-
4,788.49 5,230
199.27 5,081.20 6.11% 5,606 7.18%
5.39 5,389.50 6.07% 5,625 0.34%
-312.19 5,713.38 6.01% 5,763 2.46%
-7.74 6,052.85 5.94% 5,962 3.45%
-9.95 6,407.91 5.87% 5,874 -1.47%
-188.83 6,778.55 5.78% 6,372 8.48%
-130.09 7,164.77 5.70% 6,597 3.53%
-46.08 7,566.58 5.61% 6,957 5.46%
-0.32 7,983.98 5.52% 7,433 6.83%
24.60 8,416.96 5.42% 7,885 6.08%
38.17 8,865.53 5.33% 9,110 15.55%
45.56 9,329.68 5.24% 10,123 11.11%
49.58 9,809.42 5.14% 10,132 0.09%
51.77 10,304.75 5.05% 10,748 6.08%
52.97 10,815.65 4.96% 11,217 4.37%
53.62 11,342.15 4.87% 11,777 4.99%
53.97 11,884.23 4.78% 12,039 2.22%
54.16 12,441.89 4.69% 12,322 2.35% INEI
54.27 13,015.14 4.61% 12,766 3.60% BCR
54.33 13,603.98 4.52% 13,379 4.80% BCR
54.36 14,208.40 4.44% 14,048 5.00% BCR
54.37 14,828.41 4.36% 14,660 4.36% Proyección tendencial
Dependent Variable: PBI_T
Method: Least Squares
Sample (adjusted): 1996 2017

Included observations: 22 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 4788.48532 84.4368422 56.7108528 1.15E-22

@TREND 284.920693 18.630255 15.2934403 3.91E-12
@TREND^2 7.79270396 0.85662004 9.09703672 2.36E-08
R-squared 0.99780872 Mean dependent var 8952.95455

Adjusted R-s 0.99757806 S.D. dependent var 2930.05543
S.E. of regres 144.197424 Akaike info criterion 12.9063676
Sum squared 395065.044 Schwarz criterion 13.0551461
Log likelihoo -138.970043 Hannan-Quinn criter. 12.9414153
F-statistic 4325.86799 Durbin-Watson stat 0.19765056
Prob(F-statist 5.45E-26
1. El filtro de Hodrick-Prescott es un método para extraer el

componente secular o tendecial de una serie temporal (PBI).
Descompone la serie observada en dos componentes, uno tendencial y
otro cíclico.
NÚMERO DE CLIENTES A9
AÑO VARIABLE
X Y Ln X Ln Y Ord. Ln Ord
1996 145,007 7.60 11.88 1 0.0
1997 165,075 13.8% 7.60 12.01 2 0.7
1998 168,577 2.1% 7.60 12.04 3 1.1
1999 173,424 2.9% 7.60 12.06 4 1.4
2000 175,714 1.3% 7.60 12.08 5 1.6
2001 198,253 12.8% 7.60 12.20 6 1.8
2002 206,625 4.2% 7.60 12.24 7 1.9
2003 215,981 4.5% 7.60 12.28 8 2.1
2004 224,313 3.9% 7.60 12.32 9 2.2
2005 237,839 6.0% 7.60 12.38 10 2.3
2006 246,186 3.5% 7.60 12.41 11 2.4
2007 259,006 5.2% 7.60 12.46 12 2.5
2008 275,264 6.3% 7.60 12.53 13 2.6
2009 287,513 4.4% 7.61 12.57 14 2.6
2010 302,801 5.3% 7.61 12.62 15 2.7
2011 317,367 4.8% 7.61 12.67 16 2.8
2012 333,811 5.2% 7.61 12.72 17 2.8
2013 348,328 4.3% 7.61 12.76 18 2.9
2014 368,916 5.9% 7.61 12.82 19 2.9
Fuente:
Anuarios Estadísticos del OSINERG 20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
Lineal Logarítmico Exponencial
(MWh) Tasa C. (MWh) Tasa C. (MWh)
PRONOSTICO(Ln x, MatY, CRECIMIENTO
TENDECIA(MatY,MarX,x)
Año Mar(Ln X)) (MatY,MarX,x)
1996 137,245.01 89,608.01 150,866.33
1997 149,188.55 8.7% 141,540.43 58.0% 158,548.85
1998 161,132.08 8.0% 171,918.94 21.5% 166,622.58
1999 173,075.62 7.4% 193,472.84 12.5% 175,107.45
2000 185,019.16 6.9% 210,191.34 8.6% 184,024.40
2001 196,962.69 6.5% 223,851.35 6.5% 193,395.41
2002 208,906.23 6.1% 235,400.73 5.2% 203,243.63
2003 220,849.77 5.7% 245,405.25 4.2% 213,593.34
2004 232,793.31 5.4% 254,229.87 3.6% 224,470.08
2005 244,736.84 5.1% 262,123.75 3.1% 235,900.70
2006 256,680.38 4.9% 269,264.64 2.7% 247,913.40
2007 268,623.92 4.7% 275,783.76 2.4% 260,537.82
2008 280,567.45 4.4% 281,780.78 2.2% 273,805.11
2009 292,510.99 4.3% 287,333.14 2.0% 287,748.00
2010 304,454.53 4.1% 292,502.27 1.8% 302,400.90
2011 316,398.06 3.9% 297,337.66 1.7% 317,799.97
2012 328,341.60 3.8% 301,879.82 1.5% 333,983.19
2013 340,285.14 3.6% 306,162.28 1.4% 350,990.52
2014 352,228.67 3.5% 310,213.14 1.3% 368,863.90
R2 0.985 0.798 0.997
t 33.424 8.198 81.466
F 1117 67 6637
2015 364,172 3.4% 314,056 1.2% 387,647

2016 376,116 3.3% 317,712 1.2% 407,387
2017 388,059 3.2% 321,197 1.1% 428,133
2018 400,003 3.1% 324,527 1.0% 449,934
2019 411,946 3.0% 327,716 1.0% 472,846
2020 423,890 2.9% 330,775 0.9% 496,925
2021 435,833 2.8% 333,713 0.9% 522,230
2022 447,777 2.7% 336,541 0.8% 548,823
2023 459,721 2.7% 339,266 0.8% 576,771
2024 471,664 2.6% 341,895 0.8% 606,141
2025 483,608 2.5% 344,435 0.7% 637,008
2026 495,551 2.5% 346,891 0.7% 669,446
2027 507,495 2.4% 349,270 0.7% 703,536
2028 519,438 2.4% 351,576 0.7% 739,362
2029 531,382 2.3% 353,812 0.6% 777,012
2030 543,325 2.2% 355,984 0.6% 816,579
2031 555,269 2.2% 358,095 0.6% 858,162
2032 567,212 2.2% 360,147 0.6% 901,862
2033 579,156 2.1% 362,146 0.6% 947,787
2034 591,099 2.1% 364,092 0.5% 996,051
2035 603,043 2.0% 365,989 0.5% 1,046,772
2036 614,986 2.0% 367,839 0.5% 1,100,077
2037 626,930 1.9% 369,644 0.5% 1,156,096
2038 638,874 1.9% 371,407 0.5% 1,214,967
2039 650,817 1.9% 373,129 0.5% 1,276,837
2040 662,761 1.8% 374,813 0.5% 1,341,857
2041 674,704 1.8% 376,460 0.4% 1,410,188
2042 686,648 1.8% 378,071 0.4% 1,481,998
2043 698,591 1.7% 379,649 0.4% 1,557,465
2044 710,535 1.7% 381,193 0.4% 1,636,776
2045 722,478 1.7% 382,707 0.4% 1,720,125
2046 734,422 1.7% 384,191 0.4% 1,807,718
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
NÚMERO DE CLIENTES A9 Polinómica

X2 X C
274 -1,085,773 1,076,750,686
ponencial Potencial Polinómica

Tasa C. (MWh) Tasa C. (MWh) Tasa C.
EXP(PRONOSTICO (Ln x,
Mat(Ln Y), Mar(Ln X))
120,326.05 151,206.00
5.1% 150,742.63 25.3% 158,495.87 4.8%
5.1% 171,984.83 14.1% 166,333.24 4.9%
5.1% 188,848.06 9.8% 174,718.09 5.0%
5.1% 203,058.75 7.5% 183,650.43 5.1%
5.1% 215,459.97 6.1% 193,130.27 5.2%
5.1% 226,534.09 5.1% 203,157.59 5.2%
5.1% 236,585.97 4.4% 213,732.40 5.2%
5.1% 245,821.94 3.9% 224,854.71 5.2%
5.1% 254,388.90 3.5% 236,524.50 5.2%
5.1% 262,395.58 3.1% 248,741.78 5.2%
5.1% 269,924.95 2.9% 261,506.55 5.1%
5.1% 277,041.95 2.6% 274,818.81 5.1%
5.1% 283,798.44 2.4% 288,678.56 5.0%
5.1% 290,236.62 2.3% 303,085.80 5.0%
5.1% 296,391.28 2.1% 318,040.53 4.9%
5.1% 302,291.53 2.0% 333,542.75 4.9%
5.1% 307,961.96 1.9% 349,592.46 4.8%
5.1% 313,423.60 1.8% 366,189.66 4.7%
0.889 0.997 >0.9
11.687 79.627 >2
137 6340 Máximo
ACEPTADO
5.1% 318,695 1.7% 383,334 4.7%
5.1% 323,790 1.6% 401,027 4.6%
5.1% 328,725 1.5% 419,266 4.5%
5.1% 333,511 1.5% 438,053 4.5%
5.1% 338,158 1.4% 457,388 4.4%
5.1% 342,676 1.3% 477,270 4.3%
5.1% 347,074 1.3% 497,700 4.3%
5.1% 351,359 1.2% 518,677 4.2%
5.1% 355,538 1.2% 540,201 4.1%
5.1% 359,618 1.1% 562,274 4.1%
5.1% 363,604 1.1% 584,893 4.0%
5.1% 367,501 1.1% 608,060 4.0%
5.1% 371,314 1.0% 631,775 3.9%
5.1% 375,048 1.0% 656,037 3.8%
5.1% 378,706 1.0% 680,846 3.8%
5.1% 382,292 0.9% 706,203 3.7%
5.1% 385,810 0.9% 732,108 3.7%
5.1% 389,262 0.9% 758,560 3.6%
5.1% 392,652 0.9% 785,559 3.6%
5.1% 395,983 0.8% 813,106 3.5%
5.1% 399,256 0.8% 841,201 3.5%
5.1% 402,474 0.8% 869,843 3.4%
5.1% 405,640 0.8% 899,032 3.4%
5.1% 408,755 0.8% 928,769 3.3%
5.1% 411,822 0.8% 959,054 3.3%
5.1% 414,842 0.7% 989,886 3.2%
5.1% 417,817 0.7% 1,021,265 3.2%
5.1% 420,749 0.7% 1,053,192 3.1%
5.1% 423,639 0.7% 1,085,666 3.1%
5.1% 426,489 0.7% 1,118,688 3.0%
5.1% 429,299 0.7% 1,152,258 3.0%
5.1% 432,072 0.6% 1,186,375 3.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
S A9 Polinómica
LINEAL
M1 B
Coeficiente 0.9850 3668.43
Error Típico (VarX1) 0.0295 7469.50
R2 = 0.9850 8467.13
F= 1117 17
Suma Cuadrados Regr 80090631486 1218769724
t= 33.42
LOGARITMICO
M1 B
Coeficiente 0.7981 49411.94
R2 = 0.7981 27971.83
F= 67 17
t= 8.20
EXPONENCIAL
M1 B
Coeficiente 1.0013 -326.91
R2 = 0.9974 3531.32
F= 6637 17
t= 81.47
Dependent Variable: CLIEN
POTENCIAL Method: Least Squares
M1 B
Coeficiente 0.7770 52847.49 Sample: 1996 2014
Error Típico (VarX1) 0.0665 16851.81 Included observations: 19
R2 = 0.8893 19102.55
F= 137 17 Variable
t= 11.69 C
@TREND
POLINÓMICO @TREND^2
M1 B
Coeficiente 0.9973 654.43 R-squared
Error Típico (VarX1) 0.0125 3174.54 Adjusted R-squ
R2 = 0.9973 3598.54 S.E. of regressi
F= 6340 17 Sum squared res
Suma Cuadrados Regr 82105844689 220141245 Log likelihood
t= 79.63 F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
Clientes regulados 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Área Demanda 9 419,266 438,053 457,388 477,270 497,700
pendent Variable: CLIEN
ethod: Least Squares
mple: 1996 2014

cluded observations: 19
Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
151206 0.001517 99650565 0

7016.13 0.000391 17952512 0
273.7448 2.10E-05 13062861 0
1 Mean dependent var 244736.8

1 S.D. dependent var 67628.88
0.002441 Akaike info criterion -9.049036
9.53E-05 Schwarz criterion -8.899915
88.96585 Hannan-Quinn criter. -9.023799
6.91E+15 Durbin-Watson stat 2.250529
0
2026 2036 2046

608,060 869,843 1,186,375
USUARIOS REGULADOS - ÁREA DE DEMANDA
AÑO Sub-Total obs LINF TC % CUADF TC %
1996 279,923 1996 197,767 324,804

1997 287,061 2.5% 1997 234,552 19% 326,011 0%
1998 310,925 8.3% 1998 271,336 16% 329,661 1%
1999 319,296 2.7% 1999 308,121 14% 335,835 2%
2000 325,752 2.0% 2000 344,905 12% 344,673 3%
2001 349,604 7.3% 2001 381,690 11% 356,380 3%
2002 393,208 12.5% 2002 418,474 10% 371,228 4%
2003 411,537 4.7% 2003 455,259 9% 389,577 5%
2004 445,651 8.3% 2004 492,044 8% 411,878 6%
2005 468,670 5.2% 2005 528,828 7% 438,699 7%
2006 519,757 10.9% 2006 565,613 7% 470,748 7%
2007 559,864 7.7% 2007 602,397 7% 508,901 8%
2008 611,032 9.1% 2008 639,182 6% 554,245 9%
2009 653,857 7.0% 2009 675,967 6% 608,126 10%
2010 706,296 8.0% 2010 712,751 5% 672,216 11%
2011 795,220 12.6% 2011 749,536 5% 748,596 11%
2012 831,946 4.6% 2012 786,320 5% 839,864 12%
2013 866,879 4.2% 2013 823,105 5% 949,280 13%
2014 911,258 5.1% 2014 859,889 4% 1,080,943 14%
2015 975,261 2015 896,674 4.3% 1,240,037 14.7%
2016 1,042,240 2016 933,459 4.1% 1,433,145 15.6%
2017 1,112,194 2017 970,243 3.9% 1,668,663 16.4%
2018 1,185,124 2018 1,007,028 3.8% 1,957,359 17.3%
2019 1,261,029 2019 1,043,812 3.7% 2,313,107 18.2%
2020 1,339,910 2020 1,080,597 3.5% 2,753,876 19.1%
2021 1,421,766 2021 1,117,382 3.4% 3,303,059 19.9%
2022 1,506,598 2022 1,154,166 3.3% 3,991,274 20.8%
2023 1,594,405 2023 1,190,951 3.2% 4,858,813 21.7%
2024 1,685,187 2024 1,227,735 3.1% 5,958,984 22.6%
2025 1,778,946 2025 1,264,520 3.0% 7,362,707 23.6%
2026 1,875,679 2026 1,301,305 2.9% 9,164,867 24.5%
2027 1,975,388 2027 1,338,089 2.8% 11,493,126 25.4%
2028 2,078,073 2028 1,374,874 2.7% 14,520,232 26.3%
2029 2,183,733 2029 1,411,658 2.7% 18,481,288 27.3%
2030 2,292,368 2030 1,448,443 2.6% 23,698,142 28.2%
2031 2,403,979 2031 1,485,227 2.5% 30,613,972 29.2%
2032 2,518,566 2032 1,522,012 2.5% 39,842,669 30.1%
2033 2,636,127 2033 1,558,797 2.4% 52,239,679 31.1%
2034 2,756,665 2034 1,595,581 2.4% 69,004,264 32.1%
2035 2,880,178 2035 1,632,366 2.3% 91,827,909 33.1%
2036 3,006,666 2036 1,669,150 2.3% 123,110,986 34.1%
2037 3,136,130 2037 1,705,935 2.2% 166,280,863 35.1%
2038 3,268,569 2038 1,742,720 2.2% 226,261,715 36.1%
2039 3,403,984 2039 1,779,504 2.1% 310,172,452 37.1%

2040 3,542,374 2040 1,816,289 2.1% 428,369,672 38.1%
2041 3,683,740 2041 1,853,073 2.0% 596,015,500 39.1%
2042 3,828,081 2042 1,889,858 2.0% 835,448,603 40.2%
2043 3,975,398 2043 1,926,642 1.9% 1,179,791,504 41.2%
2044 4,125,690 2044 1,963,427 1.9% 1,678,472,138 42.3%
2045 4,278,958 2045 2,000,212 1.9% 2,405,727,060 43.3%
2046 4,435,201 2046 2,036,996 1.8% 3,473,776,834 44.4%
1996-2014 6.8% 2.7% 29.0%
S DE ENERGÍA (MWh)
- ÁREA DE DEMANDA 9
EXPOF TC % LOGAF TC % POLF TC % POTF TC % L

2,500,000
69,643 259,540 275,867 265,885
2,000,000
223,364 221% 278,552 7% 286,619 4% 283,071 6%
313,285 40% 298,956 7% 300,432 5% 301,232 6%
1,500,000
377,085 20% 320,855 7% 317,309 6% 320,806 6%
426,573 13% 344,358 7% 337,248 6% 342,125 7% 1,000,000
467,007 9% 369,583 7% 360,251 7% 365,465 7%

500,000
501,193 7% 396,655 7% 386,315 7% 391,073 7%
530,807 6% 425,710 7% 415,443 8% 419,168 7% 0
556,928 5% 456,894 7% 447,634 8% 449,956 7% 00 05 10 15 20
580,294 4% 490,362 7% 482,887 8% 483,626 7%

601,431 4% 526,281 7% 521,203 8% 520,357 8% EX
1,000,000
620,728 3% 564,832 7% 562,581 8% 560,318 8%
638,479 3% 606,207 7% 607,023 8% 603,670 8% 800,000
654,914 3% 650,612 7% 654,527 8% 650,567 8%
670,215 2% 698,270 7% 705,094 8% 701,157 8% 600,000
684,528 2% 749,419 7% 758,724 8% 755,581 8%

400,000
697,973 2% 804,314 7% 815,417 7% 813,979 8%
710,649 2% 863,231 7% 875,172 7% 876,481 8% 200,000
722,640 2% 926,464 7% 937,990 7% 943,218 8%
734,015 1.6% 994,328 7.3% 1,003,871 7.0% 1,014,315 7.5% 0
00 05 10 15 20
744,836 1.5% 1,067,164 7.3% 1,072,815 6.9% 1,089,893 7.5%
755,153 1.4% 1,145,334 7.3% 1,144,821 6.7% 1,170,072 7.4% PO
765,011 1.3% 1,229,231 7.3% 1,219,890 6.6% 1,254,967 7.3% 5,000,000
774,449 1.2% 1,319,274 7.3% 1,298,022 6.4% 1,344,692 7.1%
783,503 1.2% 1,415,912 7.3% 1,379,217 6.3% 1,439,357 7.0% 4,000,000
792,201 1.1% 1,519,629 7.3% 1,463,474 6.1% 1,539,070 6.9%

3,000,000
800,570 1.1% 1,630,943 7.3% 1,550,794 6.0% 1,643,939 6.8%
808,636 1.0% 1,750,411 7.3% 1,641,177 5.8% 1,754,067 6.7% 2,000,000
816,418 1.0% 1,878,630 7.3% 1,734,623 5.7% 1,869,556 6.6%
1,000,000
823,937 0.9% 2,016,242 7.3% 1,831,132 5.6% 1,990,508 6.5%
831,208 0.9% 2,163,934 7.3% 1,930,703 5.4% 2,117,019 6.4% 0
838,249 0.8% 2,322,444 7.3% 2,033,337 5.3% 2,249,188 6.2% 00 05 10 15 20
845,074 0.8% 2,492,565 7.3% 2,139,034 5.2% 2,387,109 6.1%

851,694 0.8% 2,675,148 7.3% 2,247,793 5.1% 2,530,878 6.0%
858,123 0.8% 2,871,106 7.3% 2,359,616 5.0% 2,680,585 5.9%
864,371 0.7% 3,081,417 7.3% 2,474,501 4.9% 2,836,323 5.8% Tasas de Cre
870,447 0.7% 3,307,134 7.3% 2,592,449 4.8% 2,998,181 5.7% Modelo poli
876,361 0.7% 3,549,385 7.3% 2,713,460 4.7% 3,166,248 5.6% Energía AD9
882,122 0.7% 3,809,380 7.3% 2,837,533 4.6% 3,340,611 5.5%
887,737 0.6% 4,088,421 7.3% 2,964,669 4.5% 3,521,356 5.4%
893,213 0.6% 4,387,902 7.3% 3,094,868 4.4% 3,708,568 5.3%
Tasas de
898,557 0.6% 4,709,320 7.3% 3,228,130 4.3% 3,902,332 5.2%
Crecimiento
Modelo
903,775 0.6% 5,054,283 7.3% 3,364,454 4.2% 4,102,731 5.1%
polinómico
908,874 0.6% 5,424,514 7.3% 3,503,842 4.1% 4,309,846 5.0% Energía AD9
913,858 0.5% 5,821,865 7.3% 3,646,292 4.1% 4,523,758 5.0%

918,732 0.5% 6,248,323 7.3% 3,791,804 4.0% 4,744,549 4.9%
923,502 0.5% 6,706,018 7.3% 3,940,380 3.9% 4,972,296 4.8%
928,171 0.5% 7,197,241 7.3% 4,092,018 3.8% 5,207,079 4.7%
932,744 0.5% 7,724,446 7.3% 4,246,719 3.8% 5,448,975 4.6%
937,224 0.5% 8,290,269 7.3% 4,404,483 3.7% 5,698,061 4.6%
941,616 0.5% 8,897,540 7.3% 4,565,310 3.7% 5,954,413 4.5%
0.8% 7.3% 5.1% 5.9%
LINF CUAF
0,000 4,000,000,000
0,000
3,000,000,000
0,000
2,000,000,000
0,000
1,000,000,000
0,000
0 0
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
EXPF LOGF
0,000 10,000,000
0,000 8,000,000
0,000 6,000,000
0,000 4,000,000
0,000 2,000,000
0 0
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
POLF POTF
0,000 6,000,000
5,000,000
0,000
4,000,000
0,000
3,000,000
0,000
2,000,000
0,000
1,000,000
0 0
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2026 2036 2046
7.0% 6.9% 6.7% 6.6% 6.4% 6.3% 6.1% 5.4% 4.4% 3.7%
975,261 1,042,240 1,112,194 1,185,124 1,261,029 1,339,910 1,421,766 1,875,679 3,006,666 4,435,201
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2026 2036 2046
7.0% 6.9% 6.7% 6.6% 6.4% 6.3% 6.1% 5.4% 4.4% 3.7%
975,261 1,042,240 1,112,194 1,185,124 1,261,029 1,339,910 1,421,766 1,875,679 3,006,666 4,435,201
35 40 45
35 40 45
35 40 45
USUARIOS REGULADOS - Arequipa
AÑO Sub-Total obs LINF TC % CUADF TC % EXPOF
1996 279,562 1996 212,082 302,955 123,682

1997 285,710 2.2% 1997 238,723 13% 303,902 0% 233,543
1998 295,517 3.4% 1998 265,364 11% 306,763 1% 297,807
1999 302,049 2.2% 1999 292,005 10% 311,590 2% 343,404
2000 307,319 1.7% 2000 318,646 9% 318,475 2% 378,771
2001 317,660 3.4% 2001 345,287 8% 327,552 3% 407,668
2002 348,536 9.7% 2002 371,928 8% 338,998 3% 432,100
2003 361,478 3.7% 2003 398,569 7% 353,042 4% 453,265
2004 390,999 8.2% 2004 425,210 7% 369,972 5% 471,933
2005 409,675 4.8% 2005 451,851 6% 390,141 5% 488,632
2006 440,764 7.6% 2006 478,492 6% 413,988 6% 503,738
2007 469,575 6.5% 2007 505,133 6% 442,044 7% 517,529
2008 503,623 7.3% 2008 531,774 5% 474,959 7% 530,216
2009 529,138 5.1% 2009 558,415 5% 513,521 8% 541,961
2010 571,094 7.9% 2010 585,056 5% 558,693 9% 552,897
2011 640,803 12.2% 2011 611,697 5% 611,645 9% 563,126
2012 673,663 5.1% 2012 638,338 4% 673,812 10% 572,734
2013 710,422 5.5% 2013 664,979 4% 746,947 11% 581,794
2014 747,575 5.2% 2014 691,620 4% 833,208 12% 590,363
2015 798,809 2015 718,261 3.9% 935,252 12.2% 598,493
2016 852,677 2016 744,902 3.7% 1,056,371 13.0% 606,226
2017 909,180 2017 771,543 3.6% 1,200,650 13.7% 613,599
2018 968,317 2018 798,184 3.5% 1,373,184 14.4% 620,645
2019 1,030,088 2019 824,825 3.3% 1,580,349 15.1% 627,390
2020 1,094,494 2020 851,466 3.2% 1,830,162 15.8% 633,860
2021 1,161,533 2021 878,107 3.1% 2,132,742 16.5% 640,077
2022 1,231,207 2022 904,748 3.0% 2,500,916 17.3% 646,058
2023 1,303,515 2023 931,389 2.9% 2,951,021 18.0% 651,822
2024 1,378,458 2024 958,029 2.9% 3,503,947 18.7% 657,384
2025 1,456,034 2025 984,670 2.8% 4,186,538 19.5% 662,758
2026 1,536,245 2026 1,011,311 2.7% 5,033,437 20.2% 667,955
2027 1,619,090 2027 1,037,952 2.6% 6,089,569 21.0% 672,987
2028 1,704,570 2028 1,064,593 2.6% 7,413,454 21.7% 677,864
2029 1,792,683 2029 1,091,234 2.5% 9,081,693 22.5% 682,595
2030 1,883,431 2030 1,117,875 2.4% 11,195,030 23.3% 687,190
2031 1,976,813 2031 1,144,516 2.4% 13,886,599 24.0% 691,655
2032 2,072,830 2032 1,171,157 2.3% 17,333,199 24.8% 695,997
2033 2,171,480 2033 1,197,798 2.3% 21,770,768 25.6% 700,224
2034 2,272,765 2034 1,224,439 2.2% 27,515,725 26.4% 704,341
2035 2,376,684 2035 1,251,080 2.2% 34,994,546 27.2% 708,354
2036 2,483,238 2036 1,277,721 2.1% 44,784,936 28.0% 712,268
2037 2,592,425 2037 1,304,362 2.1% 57,673,425 28.8% 716,087
2038 2,704,247 2038 1,331,003 2.0% 74,736,322 29.6% 719,817

2039 2,818,703 2039 1,357,644 2.0% 97,454,049 30.4% 723,460
2040 2,935,793 2040 1,384,285 2.0% 127,873,412 31.2% 727,022
2041 3,055,518 2041 1,410,926 1.9% 168,839,014 32.0% 730,506
2042 3,177,877 2042 1,437,567 1.9% 224,324,937 32.9% 733,914
2043 3,302,870 2043 1,464,208 1.9% 299,912,450 33.7% 737,251
2044 3,430,497 2044 1,490,849 1.8% 403,481,500 34.5% 740,519
2045 3,560,758 2045 1,517,490 1.8% 546,216,671 35.4% 743,721
2046 3,693,654 2046 1,544,131 1.8% 744,078,005 36.2% 746,860
1996-2014 5.6% 3% 24%
NERGÍA (MWh)
S - Arequipa
TC % LOGAF TC % POLF TC % POTF TC %
253,226 280,362 272,240 LINF

1,600,000
89% 268,464 6% 284,243 1% 281,573 3%
28% 284,619 6% 290,802 2% 291,766 4%
15% 301,745 6% 300,038 3% 303,208 4% 1,200,000
10% 319,903 6% 311,951 4% 316,190 4%

8% 339,153 6% 326,543 5% 330,958 5% 800,000
6% 359,561 6% 343,812 5% 347,728 5%

5% 381,198 6% 363,759 6% 366,695 5% 400,000
4% 404,136 6% 386,383 6% 388,040 6%

4% 428,455 6% 411,685 7% 411,931 6% 0
00 05 10 15 20 25
3% 454,237 6% 439,665 7% 438,524 6%
3% 481,570 6% 470,323 7% 467,970 7%
EXPF
2% 510,548 6% 503,658 7% 500,411 7%
800,000
2% 541,270 6% 539,671 7% 535,983 7%
700,000
2% 573,841 6% 578,361 7% 574,816 7%
600,000
2% 608,372 6% 619,730 7% 617,036 7%
2% 644,980 6% 663,776 7% 662,764 7% 500,000
2% 683,791 6% 710,499 7% 712,118 7% 400,000

1% 724,938 6% 759,900 7% 765,211 7% 300,000
1.4% 768,561 6.0% 811,979 6.9% 822,155 7.4%
200,000
1.3% 814,809 6.0% 866,736 6.7% 883,057 7.4%
100,000
1.2% 863,839 6.0% 924,170 6.6% 948,021 7.4% 00 05 10 15 20 25
1.1% 915,820 6.0% 984,282 6.5% 1,017,151 7.3%
1.1% 970,930 6.0% 1,047,072 6.4% 1,090,546 7.2% POLF
1.0% 1,029,355 6.0% 1,112,539 6.3% 1,168,304 7.1% 4,000,000
1.0% 1,091,296 6.0% 1,180,684 6.1% 1,250,521 7.0%
0.9% 1,156,964 6.0% 1,251,507 6.0% 1,337,290 6.9% 3,000,000
0.9% 1,226,583 6.0% 1,325,007 5.9% 1,428,704 6.8%
0.9% 1,300,392 6.0% 1,401,185 5.7% 1,524,853 6.7% 2,000,000
0.8% 1,378,643 6.0% 1,480,041 5.6% 1,625,826 6.6%
0.8% 1,461,602 6.0% 1,561,574 5.5% 1,731,709 6.5% 1,000,000
0.8% 1,549,553 6.0% 1,645,785 5.4% 1,842,588 6.4%
0.7% 1,642,797 6.0% 1,732,674 5.3% 1,958,548 6.3% 0
0.7% 1,741,651 6.0% 1,822,240 5.2% 2,079,672 6.2% 00 05 10 15 20 25
0.7% 1,846,454 6.0% 1,914,484 5.1% 2,206,041 6.1%

0.6% 1,957,564 6.0% 2,009,406 5.0% 2,337,735 6.0% Tasas de Crecimient 2015
0.6% 2,075,359 6.0% 2,107,005 4.9% 2,474,835 5.9% Modelo polinómico 6.85%
0.6% 2,200,243 6.0% 2,207,282 4.8% 2,617,417 5.8% Energía Arequipa 798,809
0.6% 2,332,641 6.0% 2,310,237 4.7% 2,765,560 5.7%

Tasas de
0.6% 2,473,007 6.0% 2,415,869 4.6% 2,919,340 5.6% Crecimiento
2015
0.6% 2,621,819 6.0% 2,524,180 4.5% 3,078,831 5.5% Modelo Polinómico 6.85%
0.5% 2,779,585 6.0% 2,635,167 4.4% 3,244,108 5.4% Energía Arequipa 798,809
0.5% 2,946,845 6.0% 2,748,833 4.3% 3,415,245 5.3%

0.5% 3,124,170 6.0% 2,865,176 4.2% 3,592,313 5.2%
0.5% 3,312,165 6.0% 2,984,197 4.2% 3,775,384 5.1%
0.5% 3,511,473 6.0% 3,105,895 4.1% 3,964,530 5.0%
0.5% 3,722,774 6.0% 3,230,271 4.0% 4,159,819 4.9%
0.5% 3,946,790 6.0% 3,357,325 3.9% 4,361,323 4.8%
0.4% 4,184,287 6.0% 3,487,057 3.9% 4,569,108 4.8%
0.4% 4,436,074 6.0% 3,619,466 3.8% 4,783,242 4.7%
0.4% 4,703,012 6.0% 3,754,553 3.7% 5,003,794 4.6%
1% 6% 5% 6%
LINF CUAF
800,000,000
600,000,000
400,000,000
200,000,000
0
05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
EXPF LOGF
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
POLF POTF
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2026 2036 2046

6.74% 6.63% 6.50% 6.38% 6.25% 6.13% 5.51% 4.48% 3.73%
852,677 909,180 968,317 1,030,088 1,094,494 1,161,533 1,536,245 2,483,238 3,693,654
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2026 2036 2046
6.74% 6.63% 6.50% 6.38% 6.25% 6.13% 5.51% 4.48% 3.73%
852,677 909,180 968,317 1,030,088 1,094,494 1,161,533 1,536,245 2,483,238 3,693,654

USUARIOS REGULADOS - Camaná, Chuquibamba, Majes-Siguas, Repartición
2001 10,744 2001 7,809 24,474

2002 19,928 85.5% 2002 15,055 93% 24,737 1%
2003 24,223 21.6% 2003 22,301 48% 25,541 3%
2004 27,298 12.7% 2004 29,547 32% 26,940 5%
2005 30,607 12.1% 2005 36,793 25% 29,029 8%
2006 41,428 35.4% 2006 44,038 20% 31,955 10%
2007 48,537 17.2% 2007 51,284 16% 35,933 12%
2008 56,931 17.3% 2008 58,530 14% 41,279 15%
2009 65,573 15.2% 2009 65,776 12% 48,442 17%
2010 73,208 11.6% 2010 73,022 11% 58,075 20%
2011 82,208 12.3% 2011 80,268 10% 71,124 22%
2012 89,376 8.7% 2012 87,514 9% 88,984 25%
2013 95,580 6.9% 2013 94,759 8% 113,729 28%
2014 103,060 7.8% 2014 102,005 8% 148,491 31%
2015 111,887 2015 109,251 7.1% 198,058 33.4%
2016 120,961 2016 116,497 6.6% 269,868 36.3%
2017 130,284 2017 123,743 6.2% 375,645 39.2%
2018 139,855 2018 130,989 5.9% 534,158 42.2%
2019 149,673 2019 138,234 5.5% 775,939 45.3%
2020 159,739 2020 145,480 5.2% 1,151,468 48.4%
2021 170,054 2021 152,726 5.0% 1,745,590 51.6%
2022 180,616 2022 159,972 4.7% 2,703,329 54.9%
2023 191,426 2023 167,218 4.5% 4,276,826 58.2%
2024 202,483 2024 174,464 4.3% 6,912,108 61.6%
2025 213,789 2025 181,710 4.2% 11,412,102 65.1%
2026 225,343 2026 188,955 4.0% 19,248,059 68.7%
2027 237,144 2027 196,201 3.8% 33,164,572 72.3%
2028 249,193 2028 203,447 3.7% 58,375,153 76.0%
2029 261,490 2029 210,693 3.6% 104,965,805 79.8%
2030 274,035 2030 217,939 3.4% 192,811,896 83.7%
2031 286,828 2031 225,185 3.3% 361,814,514 87.7%
2032 299,869 2032 232,430 3.2% 693,592,387 91.7%
2033 313,158 2033 239,676 3.1% 1,358,278,500 95.8%
2034 326,694 2034 246,922 3.0% 2,717,312,018 100.1%
2035 340,479 2035 254,168 2.9% 5,553,366,905 104.4%
2036 354,511 2036 261,414 2.9% 11,594,162,976 108.8%
2037 368,791 2037 268,660 2.8% 24,727,978,177 113.3%
2038 383,319 2038 275,906 2.7% 53,877,072,746 117.9%

2039 398,095 2039 283,151 2.6% 119,918,323,758 122.6%
2040 413,118 2040 290,397 2.6% 272,667,440,674 127.4%

2041 428,390 2041 297,643 2.5% 633,354,979,214 132.3%
2042 443,909 2042 304,889 2.4% 1,502,890,265,471 137.3%
2043 459,677 2043 312,135 2.4% 3,643,120,436,008 142.4%
2044 475,692 2044 319,381 2.3% 9,021,649,713,795 147.6%
2045 491,955 2045 326,627 2.3% 22,822,571,035,654 153.0%
2046 508,466 2046 333,872 2.2% 58,980,622,138,985 158.4%
2001-2014 19.0% 4% 89%
CAS DE ENERGÍA (MWh)
400,000
mba, Majes-Siguas, Repartición-La Cano, Valle de Majes
300,000
EXPOF TC % LOGAF TC % POLF TC % POTF TC %
200,000
-9,863 16,331 11,101 10,545
15,087 -253% 19,131 17% 16,828 52% 16,688 58%
29,683 97% 22,412 17% 22,807 36% 22,921 37% 100,000
40,038 35% 26,254 17% 29,040 27% 29,285 28%

48,070 20% 30,756 17% 35,526 22% 35,810 22% 0
05 10 15 20
54,633 14% 36,029 17% 42,266 19% 42,522 19%
60,182 10% 42,207 17% 49,258 17% 49,444 16%
64,989 8% 49,443 17% 56,504 15% 56,596 14%
160,000
69,228 7% 57,921 17% 64,003 13% 63,997 13%
73,021 5% 67,852 17% 71,756 12% 71,665 12% 120,000
76,452 5% 79,485 17% 79,761 11% 79,616 11%
80,000
79,584 4% 93,114 17% 88,020 10% 87,865 10%
82,465 4% 109,079 17% 96,532 10% 96,428 10% 40,000
85,133 3% 127,781 17% 105,298 9% 105,319 9%
87,616 2.9% 149,690 17.1% 114,316 8.6% 114,551 8.8% 0
89,939 2.7% 175,356 17.1% 123,588 8.1% 124,138 8.4%

-40,000
92,121 2.4% 205,422 17.1% 133,113 7.7% 134,093 8.0% 05 10 15 20
94,179 2.2% 240,643 17.1% 142,892 7.3% 144,427 7.7%
96,125 2.1% 281,903 17.1% 152,923 7.0% 155,153 7.4%
97,971 1.9% 330,237 17.1% 163,208 6.7% 166,282 7.2% 600,000
99,728 1.8% 386,859 17.1% 173,746 6.5% 177,825 6.9%
500,000
101,402 1.7% 453,189 17.1% 184,538 6.2% 189,794 6.7%
103,002 1.6% 530,892 17.1% 195,582 6.0% 202,200 6.5% 400,000
104,534 1.5% 621,917 17.1% 206,880 5.8% 215,052 6.4% 300,000

106,004 1.4% 728,550 17.1% 218,431 5.6% 228,360 6.2%
200,000
107,416 1.3% 853,466 17.1% 230,236 5.4% 242,136 6.0%
108,774 1.3% 999,799 17.1% 242,293 5.2% 256,389 5.9% 100,000
110,083 1.2% 1,171,222 17.1% 254,604 5.1% 271,127 5.7%
0
111,346 1.1% 1,372,038 17.1% 267,168 4.9% 286,362 5.6% 05 10 15 20
112,567 1.1% 1,607,284 17.1% 279,986 4.8% 302,102 5.5%

113,747 1.0% 1,882,865 17.1% 293,056 4.7% 318,356 5.4%
114,890 1.0% 2,205,697 17.1% 306,380 4.5% 335,134 5.3%
115,997 1.0% 2,583,882 17.1% 319,957 4.4% 352,443 5.2%
117,072 0.9% 3,026,908 17.1% 333,788 4.3% 370,293 5.1%
118,115 0.9% 3,545,895 17.1% 347,872 4.2% 388,693 5.0%
119,130 0.9% 4,153,867 17.1% 362,208 4.1% 407,650 4.9%
120,116 0.8% 4,866,080 17.1% 376,799 4.0% 427,173 4.8%
121,076 0.8% 5,700,407 17.1% 391,642 3.9% 447,271 4.7%

122,011 0.8% 6,677,787 17.1% 406,739 3.9% 467,951 4.6%
122,922 0.7% 7,822,745 17.1% 422,089 3.8% 489,221 4.5%

123,811 0.7% 9,164,016 17.1% 437,692 3.7% 511,089 4.5%
124,678 0.7% 10,735,258 17.1% 453,548 3.6% 533,563 4.4%
125,525 0.7% 12,575,902 17.1% 469,658 3.6% 556,651 4.3%
126,353 0.7% 14,732,139 17.1% 486,021 3.5% 580,360 4.3%
127,162 0.6% 17,258,079 17.1% 502,637 3.4% 604,697 4.2%
127,953 0.6% 20,217,112 17.1% 519,507 3.4% 629,671 4.1%
1% 17% 5% 6%
LINF CUAF
400,000 6E+13
5E+13
300,000
4E+13
200,000 3E+13
2E+13
100,000
1E+13
0 0E+00
05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
EXPF LOGF
160,000 25,000,000
120,000 20,000,000
80,000 15,000,000
40,000 10,000,000
0 5,000,000
-40,000 0
05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
POLF POTF
600,000 700,000
500,000 600,000
500,000
400,000
400,000
300,000
300,000
200,000
200,000
100,000 100,000
0 0
05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Tasas de Crecimiento 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2026 2036
Modelo polinómico 8.56% 8.11% 7.71% 7.35% 7.02% 6.73% 6.46% 5.40% 4.12%
Energía Camaná, Chuquibamb111,887 120,961 130,284 139,855 149,673 159,739 170,054 225,343 354,511
Tasas de Crecimiento 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2026 2036
Modelo Polinómico 8.56% 8.11% 7.71% 7.35% 7.02% 6.73% 6.46% 5.40% 4.12%
Energía Camaná,
Chuquibamba, Majes-
Siguas, Repartición-La
111,887 120,961 130,284 139,855 149,673 159,739 170,054 225,343 354,511
Cano, Valle de Majes
30 35 40 45
30 35 40 45
30 35 40 45
2046
3.36%
508,466
2046
3.36%
508,466
USUARIOS REGULADOS - Islay
AÑO Sub-Total obs LINF TC % CUADF TC % EXPOF
1998 15,088 1998 14,971 19,493 9,592

1999 16,869 11.8% 1999 16,490 10% 19,557 0% 15,757
2000 18,434 9.3% 2000 18,008 9% 19,752 1% 19,363
2001 18,980 3.0% 2001 19,527 8% 20,080 2% 21,921
2002 22,401 18.0% 2002 21,046 8% 20,549 2% 23,906
2003 23,238 3.7% 2003 22,564 7% 21,168 3% 25,527
2004 24,316 4.6% 2004 24,083 7% 21,950 4% 26,898
2005 24,421 0.4% 2005 25,602 6% 22,912 4% 28,086
2006 26,930 10.3% 2006 27,120 6% 24,074 5% 29,133
2007 29,226 8.5% 2007 28,639 6% 25,462 6% 30,070
2008 29,335 0.4% 2008 30,157 5% 27,108 6% 30,918
2009 30,053 2.4% 2009 31,676 5% 29,052 7% 31,692
2010 30,820 2.5% 2010 33,195 5% 31,341 8% 32,404
2011 33,563 8.9% 2011 34,713 5% 34,035 9% 33,063
2012 35,800 6.7% 2012 36,232 4% 37,205 9% 33,676
2013 40,240 12.4% 2013 37,751 4% 40,938 10% 34,250
2014 41,329 2.7% 2014 39,269 4% 45,345 11% 34,789
2015 43,505 2015 40,788 3.9% 50,559 11.5% 35,298
2016 45,772 2016 42,306 3.7% 56,744 12.2% 35,779
2017 48,135 2017 43,825 3.6% 64,109 13.0% 36,235
2018 50,594 2018 45,344 3.5% 72,908 13.7% 36,669
2019 53,154 2019 46,862 3.3% 83,463 14.5% 37,082
2020 55,817 2020 48,381 3.2% 96,179 15.2% 37,478
2021 58,584 2021 49,900 3.1% 111,566 16.0% 37,856
2022 61,459 2022 51,418 3.0% 130,271 16.8% 38,219
2023 64,443 2023 52,937 3.0% 153,119 17.5% 38,568
2024 67,539 2024 54,455 2.9% 181,164 18.3% 38,904
2025 70,750 2025 55,974 2.8% 215,765 19.1% 39,227
2026 74,077 2026 57,493 2.7% 258,676 19.9% 39,539
2027 77,523 2027 59,011 2.6% 312,172 20.7% 39,841
2028 81,090 2028 60,530 2.6% 379,224 21.5% 40,132
2029 84,780 2029 62,049 2.5% 463,727 22.3% 40,415
2030 88,595 2030 63,567 2.4% 570,813 23.1% 40,688
2031 92,537 2031 65,086 2.4% 707,278 23.9% 40,954
2032 96,608 2032 66,604 2.3% 882,166 24.7% 41,212
2033 100,810 2033 68,123 2.3% 1,107,580 25.6% 41,462
2034 105,145 2034 69,642 2.2% 1,399,795 26.4% 41,706
2035 109,615 2035 71,160 2.2% 1,780,813 27.2% 41,943
2036 114,222 2036 72,679 2.1% 2,280,535 28.1% 42,174
2037 118,968 2037 74,198 2.1% 2,939,811 28.9% 42,399
2038 123,854 2038 75,716 2.0% 3,814,756 29.8% 42,619
2039 128,882 2039 77,235 2.0% 4,982,858 30.6% 42,833
2040 134,055 2040 78,754 2.0% 6,551,712 31.5% 43,042
2041 139,374 2041 80,272 1.9% 8,671,527 32.4% 43,247
2042 144,841 2042 81,791 1.9% 11,553,162 33.2% 43,447
2043 150,457 2043 83,309 1.9% 15,494,251 34.1% 43,642
2044 156,224 2044 84,828 1.8% 20,917,261 35.0% 43,834
2045 162,144 2045 86,347 1.8% 28,425,201 35.9% 44,021
2046 168,219 2046 87,865 1.8% 38,883,625 36.8% 44,204
1998-2014 6.5% 3% 24%
NERGÍA (MWh) LINF
OS - Islay 100,000
TC % LOGAF TC % POLF TC % POTF TC % 80,000
60,000
16,410 16,052 16,047
64% 17,386 6% 17,165 7% 17,216 7%
40,000
23% 18,420 6% 18,333 7% 18,406 7%
13% 19,517 6% 19,554 7% 19,626 7% 20,000
9% 20,678 6% 20,830 7% 20,883 6%
7% 21,908 6% 22,159 6% 22,184 6% 0
00 05 10 15 20 25
5% 23,212 6% 23,543 6% 23,532 6%
4% 24,593 6% 24,980 6% 24,934 6%
EXPF
4% 26,056 6% 26,472 6% 26,394 6%
50,000
3% 27,607 6% 28,018 6% 27,914 6%
3% 29,249 6% 29,617 6% 29,501 6%
40,000
3% 30,990 6% 31,271 6% 31,156 6%
2% 32,834 6% 32,979 5% 32,883 6% 30,000
2% 34,788 6% 34,740 5% 34,686 5%
2% 36,858 6% 36,556 5% 36,568 5% 20,000
2% 39,051 6% 38,426 5% 38,532 5%
2% 41,374 6% 40,350 5% 40,581 5% 10,000
1.5% 43,836 6.0% 42,328 4.9% 42,717 5.3%

0
1.4% 46,445 6.0% 44,359 4.8% 44,944 5.2% 00 05 10 15 20 25
1.3% 49,208 6.0% 46,445 4.7% 47,263 5.2%
1.2% 52,136 6.0% 48,585 4.6% 49,679 5.1% POLF
1.1% 55,238 6.0% 50,779 4.5% 52,192 5.1% 140,000
1.1% 58,525 6.0% 53,027 4.4% 54,806 5.0%
120,000
1.0% 62,008 6.0% 55,329 4.3% 57,523 5.0%
1.0% 65,697 6.0% 57,685 4.3% 60,346 4.9% 100,000
0.9% 69,607 6.0% 60,095 4.2% 63,276 4.9% 80,000

0.9% 73,748 6.0% 62,559 4.1% 66,317 4.8% 60,000
0.8% 78,137 6.0% 65,077 4.0% 69,469 4.8%
40,000
0.8% 82,786 6.0% 67,649 4.0% 72,736 4.7%
0.8% 87,712 6.0% 70,276 3.9% 76,120 4.7% 20,000
0.7% 92,931 6.0% 72,956 3.8% 79,622 4.6% 0

0.7% 98,461 6.0% 75,690 3.7% 83,245 4.6% 00 05 10 15 20 25
0.7% 104,320 6.0% 78,478 3.7% 86,991 4.5%

0.7% 110,527 6.0% 81,320 3.6% 90,861 4.4% Tasas de Crecimiento 2015
0.6% 117,104 6.0% 84,217 3.6% 94,859 4.4% Modelo potencial 5.26%
0.6% 124,072 6.0% 87,167 3.5% 98,985 4.3% Energía Islay 43,505
0.6% 131,454 6.0% 90,171 3.4% 103,241 4.3%

0.6% 139,276 6.0% 93,230 3.4% 107,631 4.3%
0.6% 147,564 6.0% 96,342 3.3% 112,154 4.2% Tasas de Crecimiento 2015
0.5% 156,344 6.0% 99,508 3.3% 116,814 4.2% Modelo Potencial 5.26%
0.5% 165,647 6.0% 102,729 3.2% 121,612 4.1% Energía Islay 43,505
0.5% 175,503 6.0% 106,003 3.2% 126,549 4.1%

0.5% 185,946 6.0% 109,332 3.1% 131,628 4.0%
0.5% 197,011 6.0% 112,714 3.1% 136,851 4.0%
0.5% 208,733 6.0% 116,151 3.0% 142,218 3.9%
0.4% 221,154 6.0% 119,641 3.0% 147,733 3.9%
0.4% 234,313 6.0% 123,186 3.0% 153,396 3.8%
0.4% 248,255 6.0% 126,785 2.9% 159,208 3.8%
0.4% 263,027 6.0% 130,437 2.9% 165,173 3.7%
1% 6% 4% 4%
LINF CUAF
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0
05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
EXPF LOGF
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
POLF POTF
200,000
160,000
120,000
80,000
40,000
0
05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2026 2036 2046

5.21% 5.16% 5.11% 5.06% 5.01% 4.96% 4.70% 4.20% 3.75%
45,772 48,135 50,594 53,154 55,817 58,584 74,077 114,222 168,219
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2026 2036 2046

5.21% 5.16% 5.11% 5.06% 5.01% 4.96% 4.70% 4.20% 3.75%
45,772 48,135 50,594 53,154 55,817 58,584 74,077 114,222 168,219

USUARIOS REGULADOS - Orcopampa, Valle del C
2001 1,661 2001 933 2,296

2002 1,689 1.7% 2002 1,526 2,319
2003 1,856 9.9% 2003 2,119 39% 2,388 3%
2004 2,147 15.7% 2004 2,712 28% 2,509 5%
2005 2,580 20.2% 2005 3,305 22% 2,688 7%
2006 3,651 41.5% 2006 3,898 18% 2,936 9%
2007 4,407 20.7% 2007 4,491 15% 3,272 11%
2008 5,393 22.4% 2008 5,084 13% 3,718 14%
2009 6,005 11.3% 2009 5,677 12% 4,309 16%
2010 6,511 8.4% 2010 6,270 10% 5,094 18%
2011 7,115 9.3% 2011 6,863 9% 6,140 21%
2012 7,941 11.6% 2012 7,456 9% 7,549 23%
2013 8,103 2.0% 2013 8,049 8% 9,465 25%
2014 7,970 -1.6% 2014 8,642 7% 12,104 28%
2015 8,516 2015 9,235 6.9% 15,786 30.4%
2016 9,063 2016 9,828 6.4% 20,996 33.0%
2017 9,610 2017 10,421 6.0% 28,481 35.7%
2018 10,157 2018 11,014 5.7% 39,402 38.3%
2019 10,704 2019 11,607 5.4% 55,594 41.1%
2020 11,251 2020 12,200 5.1% 79,998 43.9%
2021 11,797 2021 12,793 4.9% 117,402 46.8%
2022 12,344 2022 13,386 4.6% 175,716 49.7%
2023 12,891 2023 13,979 4.4% 268,221 52.6%
2024 13,438 2024 14,572 4.2% 417,558 55.7%
2025 13,985 2025 15,165 4.1% 662,955 58.8%
2026 14,532 2026 15,758 3.9% 1,073,481 61.9%
2027 15,079 2027 16,351 3.8% 1,772,752 65.1%
2028 15,625 2028 16,944 3.6% 2,985,692 68.4%
2029 16,172 2029 17,537 3.5% 5,128,439 71.8%
2030 16,719 2030 18,130 3.4% 8,983,980 75.2%
2031 17,266 2031 18,723 3.3% 16,050,762 78.7%
2032 17,813 2032 19,316 3.2% 29,245,954 82.2%
2033 18,360 2033 19,909 3.1% 54,347,455 85.8%
2034 18,906 2034 20,502 3.0% 102,999,689 89.5%
2035 19,453 2035 21,095 2.9% 199,083,791 93.3%
2036 20,000 2036 21,688 2.8% 392,445,336 97.1%
2037 20,547 2037 22,281 2.7% 788,979,514 101.0%
2038 21,094 2038 22,874 2.7% 1,617,690,982 105.0%

2039 21,641 2039 23,467 2.6% 3,382,740,516 109.1%
2040 22,187 2040 24,060 2.5% 7,214,148,688 113.3%
2041 22,734 2041 24,653 2.5% 15,690,788,784 117.5%
2042 23,281 2042 25,246 2.4% 34,805,489,562 121.8%
2043 23,828 2043 25,839 2.3% 78,739,744,356 126.2%
2044 24,375 2044 26,432 2.3% 181,670,134,329 130.7%
2045 24,922 2045 27,025 2.2% 427,480,547,960 135.3%
2046 25,469 2046 27,618 2.2% 1,025,870,309,467 140.0%
2001-2014 12.8% 4% 80%
C
DE ENERGÍA (MWh)
1.2E+12
Orcopampa, Valle del Colca
1.0E+12
8.0E+11
EXPF LOGF POLF POTF
-492 1,603 993 923 6.0E+11
1,542 1,851 1,559 1,520 4.0E+11

2,732 77% 2,137 15% 2,129 37% 2,117 39%
2.0E+11
3,576 31% 2,468 15% 2,703 27% 2,713 28%
4,230 18% 2,850 15% 3,282 21% 3,309 22% 0.0E+00
05 10 15 20
4,765 13% 3,290 15% 3,866 18% 3,904 18%
5,218 9% 3,799 15% 4,454 15% 4,498 15%
E
5,610 8% 4,387 15% 5,047 13% 5,092 13%
12,000
5,955 6% 5,065 15% 5,645 12% 5,684 12%
10,000
6,264 5% 5,848 15% 6,247 11% 6,275 10%
6,544 4% 6,753 15% 6,854 10% 6,866 9% 8,000
6,799 4% 7,797 15% 7,466 9% 7,455 9% 6,000

7,034 3% 9,003 15% 8,082 8% 8,043 8% 4,000
7,252 3% 10,396 15% 8,702 8% 8,630 7%
2,000
7,454 2.8% 12,003 15.5% 9,328 7.2% 9,215 6.8%
0
7,643 2.5% 13,860 15.5% 9,958 6.8% 9,799 6.3%
7,821 2.3% 16,003 15.5% 10,593 6.4% 10,382 5.9% -2,000
05 10 15 20
7,989 2.1% 18,478 15.5% 11,232 6.0% 10,963 5.6%
8,148 2.0% 21,336 15.5% 11,876 5.7% 11,542 5.3%
P
8,298 1.8% 24,635 15.5% 12,524 5.5% 12,120 5.0%
40,000
8,441 1.7% 28,445 15.5% 13,178 5.2% 12,697 4.8%
8,578 1.6% 32,844 15.5% 13,835 5.0% 13,272 4.5%
30,000
8,708 1.5% 37,924 15.5% 14,498 4.8% 13,845 4.3%
8,833 1.4% 43,789 15.5% 15,165 4.6% 14,416 4.1%
20,000
8,953 1.4% 50,561 15.5% 15,837 4.4% 14,986 4.0%
9,068 1.3% 58,380 15.5% 16,513 4.3% 15,554 3.8%
10,000
9,179 1.2% 67,409 15.5% 17,194 4.1% 16,120 3.6%
9,285 1.2% 77,834 15.5% 17,879 4.0% 16,684 3.5%
9,388 1.1% 89,871 15.5% 18,570 3.9% 17,247 3.4% 0
05 10 15 20
9,488 1.1% 103,770 15.5% 19,264 3.7% 17,807 3.2%
9,584 1.0% 119,819 15.5% 19,964 3.6% 18,366 3.1% Tasas de Crecimiento
9,677 1.0% 138,349 15.5% 20,668 3.5% 18,922 3.0% Modelo lineal
9,767 0.9% 159,745 15.5% 21,377 3.4% 19,476 2.9% Energía Orcopampa - Va
9,855 0.9% 184,451 15.5% 22,090 3.3% 20,029 2.8%
9,940 0.9% 212,977 15.5% 22,808 3.3% 20,579 2.7%
10,023 0.8% 245,914 15.5% 23,531 3.2% 21,127 2.7% Tasas de Crecimiento
10,103 0.8% 283,946 15.5% 24,258 3.1% 21,673 2.6% Modelo lineal
Energía Orcopampa -
10,181 0.8% 327,859 15.5% 24,990 3.0% 22,216 2.5% Valle Colca
10,258 0.7% 378,563 15.5% 25,726 2.9% 22,758 2.4%
10,332 0.7% 437,110 15.5% 26,467 2.9% 23,297 2.4%
10,404 0.7% 504,710 15.5% 27,213 2.8% 23,834 2.3%
10,475 0.7% 582,766 15.5% 27,964 2.8% 24,368 2.2%
10,544 0.7% 672,892 15.5% 28,719 2.7% 24,901 2.2%
10,612 0.6% 776,958 15.5% 29,478 2.6% 25,430 2.1%
10,677 0.6% 897,117 15.5% 30,243 2.6% 25,958 2.1%
10,742 0.6% 1,035,859 15.5% 31,011 2.5% 26,483 2.0%
1% 15% 4% 4%
CUAF LINF
28,000
24,000
20,000
16,000
12,000
8,000
4,000
0
05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
EXPF LOGF
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
POLF POTF
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2026 2036 2046
7.02% 6.87% 6.71% 6.56% 6.40% 6.26% 6.11% 5.44% 4.39% 3.65%
8,516 9,063 9,610 10,157 10,704 11,251 11,797 14,532 20,000 25,469
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2026 2036 2046
7.02% 6.87% 6.71% 6.56% 6.40% 6.26% 6.11% 5.44% 4.39% 3.65%
8,516 9,063 9,610 10,157 10,704 11,251 11,797 14,532 20,000 25,469
USUARIOS REGULADOS - Puquina-Omate-Ubinas

LINF CUAF
1996 362 1996 -4,497 479
1997 281 1997 -3,032 -33% 486 2%
1998 320 1998 -1,567 -48% 509 5%
1999 378 18.2% 1999 -102 -94% 550 8%
2000 378 0.0% 2000 1,364 -1443% 612 11%
2001 559 47.9% 2001 2,829 107% 702 15%
2002 654 17.1% 2002 4,294 52% 831 18%
2003 741 13.3% 2003 5,760 34% 1,014 22%
2004 892 20.3% 2004 7,225 25% 1,276 26%
2005 1,387 55.6% 2005 8,690 20% 1,656 30%
2006 6,984 403.4% 2006 10,155 17% 2,215 34%
2007 8,119 16.2% 2007 11,621 14% 3,055 38%
2008 15,750 94.0% 2008 13,086 13% 4,344 42%
2009 23,088 46.6% 2009 14,551 11% 6,370 47%
2010 24,664 6.8% 2010 16,016 10% 9,630 51%
2011 31,531 27.8% 2011 17,482 9% 15,013 56%
2012 25,166 -20.2% 2012 18,947 8% 24,132 61%
2013 12,533 -50.2% 2013 20,412 8% 39,995 66%
2014 11,325 -9.6% 2014 21,878 7% 68,348 71%
2015 12,083 2015 23,343 6.7% 120,433 76.2%
2016 12,842 2016 24,808 6.3% 218,808 81.7%
2017 13,600 2017 26,273 5.9% 409,899 87.3%
2018 14,359 2018 27,739 5.6% 791,754 93.2%
2019 15,117 2019 29,204 5.3% 1,576,890 99.2%
2020 15,876 2020 30,669 5.0% 3,238,254 105.4%
2021 16,634 2021 32,134 4.8% 6,856,754 111.7%
2022 17,393 2022 33,600 4.6% 14,970,096 118.3%
2023 18,151 2023 35,065 4.4% 33,699,919 125.1%
2024 18,910 2024 36,530 4.2% 78,222,447 132.1%
2025 19,668 2025 37,996 4.0% 187,211,367 139.3%
2026 20,427 2026 39,461 3.9% 461,988,651 146.8%
2027 21,185 2027 40,926 3.7% 1,175,516,346 154.4%
2028 21,944 2028 42,391 3.6% 3,084,070,611 162.4%
2029 22,702 2029 43,857 3.5% 8,342,922,845 170.5%
2030 23,461 2030 45,322 3.3% 23,270,751,898 178.9%
2031 24,219 2031 46,787 3.2% 66,926,926,144 187.6%
2032 24,978 2032 48,252 3.1% 198,467,599,216 196.5%
2033 25,736 2033 49,718 3.0% 606,843,392,844 205.8%
2034 26,494 2034 51,183 2.9% 1,913,206,790,715 215.3%
2035 27,253 2035 52,648 2.9% 6,219,356,816,499 225.1%
2036 28,011 2036 54,114 2.8% ### 235.2%
2037 28,770 2037 55,579 2.7% ### 245.6%
2038 29,528 2038 57,044 2.6% ### 256.4%
2039 30,287 2039 58,509 2.6% ### 267.4%
2040 31,045 2040 59,975 2.5% ### 278.9%
2041 31,804 2041 61,440 2.4% ### 290.6%
2042 32,562 2042 62,905 2.4% ### 302.8%
2043 33,321 2043 64,370 2.3% ### 315.3%
2044 34,079 2044 65,836 2.3% ### 328.2%
2045 34,838 2045 67,301 2.2% ### 341.5%
2046 35,596 2046 68,766 2.2% ### 355.3%
4% 195%
AS DE ENERGÍA (MWh)
OS - Puquina-Omate-Ubinas

EXPF LOGF POLF POTF
-9,325 177 -2,970 -3,814
-3,294 -65% 239 35% -2,014 -2,545 -33%
234 -107% 322 35% -998 -1,267 -50%
2,737 1071% 435 35% 78 26 -102%
4,678 71% 587 35% 1,214 1,336 5078%
6,265 34% 791 35% 2,410 2,666 100%
7,606 21% 1,068 35% 3,665 4,019 51%
8,768 15% 1,440 35% 4,981 36% 5,397 34%
9,793 12% 1,943 35% 6,356 28% 6,802 26%
10,709 9% 2,621 35% 7,792 23% 8,236 21%
11,539 8% 3,536 35% 9,287 19% 9,701 18%
12,296 7% 4,770 35% 10,842 17% 11,198 15%
12,992 6% 6,434 35% 12,457 15% 12,729 14%
13,637 5% 8,680 35% 14,132 13% 14,296 12%
14,237 4% 11,709 35% 15,867 12% 15,900 11%
14,799 4% 15,795 35% 17,661 11% 17,542 10%
15,326 4% 21,307 35% 19,516 11% 19,225 10%
15,823 3% 28,743 35% 21,431 10% 20,948 9%
16,294 3% 38,774 35% 23,405 9% 22,714 8%
16,740 2.7% 52,305 34.9% 25,439 8.7% 24,524 8.0%
17,165 2.5% 70,560 34.9% 27,533 8.2% 26,378 7.6%
17,569 2.4% 95,184 34.9% 29,687 7.8% 28,279 7.2%
17,956 2.2% 128,402 34.9% 31,901 7.5% 30,227 6.9%
18,327 2.1% 173,213 34.9% 34,175 7.1% 32,224 6.6%
18,682 1.9% 233,663 34.9% 36,509 6.8% 34,270 6.4%
19,023 1.8% 315,209 34.9% 38,903 6.6% 36,367 6.1%
19,351 1.7% 425,213 34.9% 41,356 6.3% 38,516 5.9%
19,668 1.6% 573,608 34.9% 43,870 6.1% 40,717 5.7%
19,973 1.6% 773,791 34.9% 46,443 5.9% 42,972 5.5%
20,268 1.5% 1,043,836 34.9% 49,076 5.7% 45,282 5.4%
20,553 1.4% 1,408,124 34.9% 51,769 5.5% 47,648 5.2%
20,830 1.3% 1,899,545 34.9% 54,522 5.3% 50,071 5.1%
21,097 1.3% 2,562,465 34.9% 57,335 5.2% 52,551 5.0%
21,357 1.2% 3,456,738 34.9% 60,208 5.0% 55,090 4.8%
21,609 1.2% 4,663,103 34.9% 63,141 4.9% 57,689 4.7%
21,854 1.1% 6,290,476 34.9% 66,134 4.7% 60,348 4.6%
22,093 1.1% 8,485,786 34.9% 69,186 4.6% 63,069 4.5%
22,325 1.1% 11,447,234 34.9% 72,299 4.5% 65,852 4.4%
22,551 1.0% 15,442,197 34.9% 75,471 4.4% 68,698 4.3%
22,771 1.0% 20,831,359 34.9% 78,703 4.3% 71,608 4.2%
22,986 0.9% 28,101,282 34.9% 81,995 4.2% 74,583 4.2%
23,196 0.9% 37,908,329 34.9% 85,347 4.1% 77,624 4.1%
23,400 0.9% 51,137,932 34.9% 88,759 4.0% 80,732 4.0%
23,600 0.9% 68,984,525 34.9% 92,231 3.9% 83,907 3.9%
23,796 0.8% 93,059,389 34.9% 95,763 3.8% 87,150 3.9%
23,987 0.8% 125,536,124 34.9% 99,354 3.8% 90,462 3.8%
24,174 0.8% 169,346,893 34.9% 103,006 3.7% 93,844 3.7%
24,357 0.8% 228,447,152 34.9% 106,717 3.6% 97,297 3.7%
24,537 0.7% 308,172,773 34.9% 110,488 3.5% 100,821 3.6%
24,713 0.7% 415,721,785 34.9% 114,319 3.5% 104,417 3.6%
24,885 0.7% 560,804,255 34.9% 118,210 3.4% 108,086 3.5%
1% 35% 5% 5%
LINF CUAF
80,000 2.5E+19
60,000 2.0E+19
40,000 1.5E+19
20,000 1.0E+19
0 5.0E+18
-20,000 0.0E+00
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35
EXPF LOGF
30,000 600,000,000
500,000,000
20,000
400,000,000
10,000 300,000,000
200,000,000
0
100,000,000
-10,000 0
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35
POLF POTF
120,000 120,000
100,000 100,000
80,000 80,000
60,000 60,000
40,000 40,000
20,000 20,000
0 0
-20,000 -20,000
00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35
Tasas de Crecimiento 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Modelo lineal 6.70% 6.28% 5.91% 5.58% 5.28%
Energía Puquina - Omate - Ubinas 12,083 12,842 13,600 14,359 15,117
CUAF
05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
LOGF
05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
POTF
05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
2020 2021 2026 2036 2046

5.02% 4.78% 3.86% 2.78% 2.18%
15,876 16,634 20,427 28,011 35,596
USUARIOS REGULADOS - Bella Unión - Chala

LINF CUAF
2002 2,380 1996 -714 5,729
2003 2,427 2.0% 2003 2,486 5,827
2004 6,153 153.6% 2004 5,686 129% 6,130 5%
2005 7,778 26.4% 2005 8,886 56% 6,670 9%
2006 10,311 32.6% 2006 12,086 36% 7,508 13%
2007 12,379 20.1% 2007 15,286 26% 8,741 16%
2008 18,958 53.1% 2008 18,486 21% 10,527 20%
2009 19,338 2.0% 2009 21,686 17% 13,113 25%
2010 24,729 27.9% 2010 24,886 15% 16,896 29%
2011 30,740 24.3% 2011 28,086 13% 22,519 33%
2012 33,260 8.2% 2012 31,286 11% 31,045 38%
2013 35,480 6.7% 2013 34,486 10% 44,270 43%
2014 36,386 2.6% 2014 37,686 9% 65,298 48%
2015 39,475 8.5% 2015 40,886 8.5% 99,626 52.6%
2016 42,565 7.8% 2016 44,087 7.8% 157,226 57.8%
2017 45,655 7.3% 2017 47,287 7.3% 256,656 63.2%
2018 48,744 6.8% 2018 50,487 6.8% 433,369 68.9%
2019 51,834 6.3% 2019 53,687 6.3% 756,906 74.7%
2020 54,924 6.0% 2020 56,887 6.0% 1,367,427 80.7%
2021 58,013 5.6% 2021 60,087 5.6% 2,555,312 86.9%
2022 61,103 5.3% 2022 63,287 5.3% 4,939,257 93.3%
2023 64,192 5.1% 2023 66,487 5.1% 9,875,455 99.9%
2024 67,282 4.8% 2024 69,687 4.8% 20,423,511 106.8%
2025 70,372 4.6% 2025 72,887 4.6% 43,689,947 113.9%
2026 73,461 4.4% 2026 76,087 4.4% 96,674,176 121.3%
2027 76,551 4.2% 2027 79,287 4.2% 221,267,313 128.9%
2028 79,640 4.0% 2028 82,487 4.0% 523,843,880 136.7%
2029 82,730 3.9% 2029 85,687 3.9% 1,282,815,839 144.9%
2030 85,820 3.7% 2030 88,887 3.7% 3,249,410,513 153.3%
2031 88,909 3.6% 2031 92,087 3.6% 8,513,784,960 162.0%
2032 91,999 3.5% 2032 95,287 3.5% 23,073,772,162 171.0%
2033 95,089 3.4% 2033 98,487 3.4% 64,683,327,200 180.3%
2034 98,178 3.2% 2034 101,688 3.2% 187,561,600,634 190.0%
2035 101,268 3.1% 2035 104,888 3.1% 562,565,813,921 199.9%
2036 104,357 3.1% 2036 108,088 3.1% 1,745,342,131,112 210.2%
2037 107,447 3.0% 2037 111,288 3.0% 5,601,000,806,305 220.9%
2038 110,537 2.9% 2038 114,488 2.9% ### 231.9%
2039 113,626 2.8% 2039 117,688 2.8% ### 243.4%
2040 116,716 2.7% 2040 120,888 2.7% ### 255.2%
2041 119,805 2.6% 2041 124,088 2.6% ### 267.4%
2042 122,895 2.6% 2042 127,288 2.6% ### 280.0%
2043 125,985 2.5% 2043 130,488 2.5% ### 293.1%
2044 129,074 2.5% 2044 133,688 2.5% ### 306.6%
2045 132,164 2.4% 2045 136,888 2.4% ### 320.5%
2046 135,254 2.3% 2046 140,088 2.3% ### 335.0%
2002-2014 25.5% 4% 170%
AS DE ENERGÍA (MWh)
ADOS - Bella Unión - Chala
160,000

120,000
EXPF LOGF POLF POTF
-7,314 3,248 692 362 80,000
2,994 4,110 3,189 3,090

40,000
9,025 201% 5,201 27% 5,814 82% 5,862 90%
13,303 47% 6,582 27% 8,566 47% 8,698 48% 0
16,622 25% 8,329 27% 11,447 34% 11,611 33%

-40,000
19,333 16% 10,539 27% 14,455 26% 14,615 26% 05 10 1
21,626 12% 13,336 27% 17,591 22% 17,720 21%
23,612 9% 16,876 27% 20,855 19% 20,936 18%
25,364 7% 21,355 27% 24,247 16% 24,273 16% 50,000
26,931 6% 27,023 27% 27,767 15% 27,738 14% 40,000

28,348 5% 34,195 27% 31,414 13% 31,341 13%
30,000
29,642 5% 43,271 27% 35,189 12% 35,088 12%
30,833 4% 54,756 27% 39,092 11% 38,986 11% 20,000
31,935 3.6% 69,288 26.5% 43,123 10.3% 43,043 10.4% 10,000

32,961 3.2% 87,678 26.5% 47,282 9.6% 47,265 9.8%
0
33,921 2.9% 110,949 26.5% 51,568 9.1% 51,659 9.3%
34,822 2.7% 140,396 26.5% 55,982 8.6% 56,230 8.8% -10,000
05 10 1
35,673 2.4% 177,659 26.5% 60,524 8.1% 60,985 8.5%
36,477 2.3% 224,811 26.5% 65,194 7.7% 65,929 8.1%
37,239 2.1% 284,478 26.5% 69,992 7.4% 71,068 7.8% 240,000
37,965 1.9% 359,982 26.5% 74,917 7.0% 76,407 7.5%
200,000
38,657 1.8% 455,524 26.5% 79,970 6.7% 81,953 7.3%
39,318 1.7% 576,425 26.5% 85,151 6.5% 87,709 7.0% 160,000
39,951 1.6% 729,414 26.5% 90,460 6.2% 93,681 6.8% 120,000

40,558 1.5% 923,008 26.5% 95,897 6.0% 99,874 6.6%
80,000
41,141 1.4% 1,167,984 26.5% 101,461 5.8% 106,292 6.4%
41,703 1.4% 1,477,978 26.5% 107,153 5.6% 112,941 6.3% 40,000
42,244 1.3% 1,870,249 26.5% 112,973 5.4% 119,826 6.1% 0

05 10 1
42,766 1.2% 2,366,632 26.5% 118,921 5.3% 126,950 5.9%
43,270 1.2% 2,994,760 26.5% 124,997 5.1% 134,318 5.8% Tasas de Crecimie
43,757 1.1% 3,789,600 26.5% 131,200 5.0% 141,935 5.7% Modelo lineal
44,230 1.1% 4,795,398 26.5% 137,532 4.8% 149,805 5.5% Energía Bella Uni
44,687 1.0% 6,068,146 26.5% 143,991 4.7% 157,932 5.4%

45,131 1.0% 7,678,694 26.5% 150,578 4.6% 166,321 5.3%
45,562 1.0% 9,716,697 26.5% 157,292 4.5% 174,975 5.2%
45,981 0.9% 12,295,607 26.5% 164,135 4.4% 183,899 5.1%
46,389 0.9% 15,558,986 26.5% 171,105 4.2% 193,096 5.0%
46,785 0.9% 19,688,499 26.5% 178,203 4.1% 202,571 4.9%
47,172 0.8% 24,914,027 26.5% 185,429 4.1% 212,328 4.8%
47,548 0.8% 31,526,463 26.5% 192,783 4.0% 222,369 4.7%
47,915 0.8% 39,893,906 26.5% 200,264 3.9% 232,701 4.6%
48,274 0.7% 50,482,154 26.5% 207,873 3.8% 243,325 4.6%
48,624 0.7% 63,880,631 26.5% 215,611 3.7% 254,245 4.5%
48,966 0.7% 80,835,200 26.5% 223,475 3.6% 265,467 4.4%
49,300 0.7% 102,289,684 26.5% 231,468 3.6% 276,992 4.3%
1% 27% 6% 6%
LINF CUAF
160,000 1E+18
120,000 8E+17
80,000 6E+17
40,000 4E+17
0 2E+17
-40,000 0E+00
05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
EXPF LOGF
50,000 120,000,000
40,000 100,000,000
30,000 80,000,000
20,000 60,000,000
10,000 40,000,000
0 20,000,000
-10,000 0
05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
POLF POTF
240,000 280,000
200,000 240,000
200,000
160,000
160,000
120,000
120,000
80,000
80,000
40,000 40,000
0 0
05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2026

8.49% 7.83% 7.26% 6.77% 6.34% 5.96% 5.63% 4.39%
39,475 42,565 45,655 48,744 51,834 54,924 58,013 73,461
2036 2046
3.05% 2.34%
104,357 135,254
VTASA9 % eq %
1996 279,923.20 293,682.80
1997 287,060.53 2.5% 310947.6270392
1998 310,924.80 8.3% 312,515.33
1999 319,296.16 2.7% 323,901.78 3.6%
2000 325,752.44 2.0% 340,321.38 5.1%
2001 349,603.73 7.3% 333,060.45 -2.1%
2002 393,208.15 12.5% 374,150.70 12.3%
2003 411,536.90 4.7% 392,715.57 5.0%
2004 445,651.18 8.3% 422,419.37 7.6%
2005 468,670.38 5.2% 461,694.38 9.3%
2006 519,757.00 10.9% 498,989.15 8.1%
2007 559,864.23 7.7% 600,064.56 20.3%
2008 611,032.36 9.1% 683,647.74 13.9%
2009 653,857.09 7.0% 684,390.33 0.1%
2010 706,296.18 8.0% 735,216.83 7.4%
2011 795,219.77 12.6% 773,914.27 5.3%
2012 831,945.86 4.6% 820,120.17 6.0%
2013 866,878.84 4.2% 841,737.93 2.6%
2014 911,257.85 5.1% 865,088.42 2.8%
2015 901,723.10 4.2%
2016 952,302.06 5.6%
2017 1,007,501.61 5.8%
2018 1,057,998.06 5.0%
2019 1,109,897.19 4.9%
2020 1,163,033.98 4.8%
2021 1,217,408.43 4.7%
2022 1,273,103.04 4.6%
2023 1,330,035.31 4.5%
2024 1,388,205.24 4.4%
2025 1,447,695.34 4.3%
2026 1,508,423.10 4.2%
2027 1,570,471.03 4.1%
2028 1,633,756.61 4.0%
2029 1,698,279.86 3.9%
2030 1,764,123.27 3.9%
2031 1,831,286.85 3.8%
2032 1,899,605.57 3.7%
2033 1,969,244.47 3.7%
2034 2,040,203.54 3.6%
2035 2,112,400.26 3.5%
2036 2,185,834.64 3.5%
2037 2,260,589.19 3.4%
2038 2,336,581.40 3.4%
2039 2,413,893.77 3.3%
2040 2,492,443.81 3.3%
2041 2,572,231.50 3.2%
2042 2,653,339.36 3.2%
2043 2,735,684.88 3.1%
2044 2,819,350.57 3.1%
2045 2,904,253.92 3.0%
2046 2,990,394.92 3.0%
VTASA9_P %
Dependent Variable: VTAS
279,923.20 Method: Least Squares
287,060.53 2.5% Date: 05/03/15 Time: 15:37
310,924.80 8.3% Sample (adjusted): 1996 2014
319,296.16 2.7% Included observations: 19 after adjustments
325,752.44 2.0% Convergence achieved after 16 iterations
349,603.73 7.3% MA Backcast: 1995
393,208.15 12.5%
411,536.90 4.7% Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic
445,651.18 8.3%
468,670.38 5.2% C -151606.5 33536.39 -4.520656
519,757.00 10.9% PBIA9_P 82.51054 3.452072 23.90174
559,864.23 7.7% MA(1) 0.9995 0.137657 7.260776
611,032.36 9.1%
653,857.09 7.0% R-squared 0.988365 Mean dependent var
706,296.18 8.0% Adjusted R-s 0.986911 S.D. dependent var
795,219.77 12.6% S.E. of regres 24212 Akaike info criterion
831,945.86 4.6% Sum squared 9.38E+09 Schwarz criterion
866,878.84 4.2% Log likelihoo -217.1247 Hannan-Quinn criter.
911,257.85 5.1% F-statistic 679.5782 Durbin-Watson stat
949,847.71 4.2% Prob(F-statist 0
1,003,126.05 5.6%
1,061,271.58 5.8% Inverted MA -1
1,114,463.01 5.0%
1,169,131.97 4.9%
1,225,104.65 4.8% 3,500,000
1,282,381.04 4.7%
3,000,000
1,341,048.05 4.6%
1,401,018.78 4.5% 2,500,000
1,462,293.22 4.4%
1,524,958.28 4.3% 2,000,000
1,588,927.06 4.2%
1,500,000
1,654,286.46 4.1%
1,720,949.57 4.0% 1,000,000
1,788,916.39 3.9%
500,000
1,858,273.84 3.9%
1,929,021.91 3.8% 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
2,000,986.79 3.7%
2,074,342.28 3.7% VTASF ± 2 S.E.
2,149,088.41 3.6%
2,225,138.24 3.5%
2,302,491.79 3.5%
2,381,235.96 3.4%
2,461,283.84 3.4%
60,000
2,542,722.35 3.3%
2,625,464.57 3.3%
2,709,510.50 3.2%
60,000
2,794,947.05 3.2%
40,000
2,881,687.32 3.1%
2,969,818.21 3.1% 20,000
3,059,252.82 3.0% 0
3,149,991.14 3.0% -20,000
-40,000
-60,000
-80,000
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 201
Residual Actual Fitted
0
-60000 -40000 -20000 0 20000 40000
Prob.
0.0003
0
0
528828.2
211626.7
23.17102
23.32015
23.19626
2.377439
Forecast: VTASF
Actual: VTAS
Forecast sample: 1996 2046
Included observations: 19
Root Mean Squared Error 28118.19
Mean Absolute Error 23185.37
Mean Abs. Percent Error 4.442567
Theil Inequality Coefficient 0.024780
Bias Proportion 0.001522
Variance Proportion 0.018735
Covariance Proportion 0.979743
25 2030 2035 2040 2045
2 S.E.
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Actual Fitted
Series: Residuals
Sample 1996 2014
Observations 19
Mean -547.1510
Median 56.28934
Maximum 46136.36
Minimum -59486.99
Std. Dev. 22820.37
Skewness -0.318706
Kurtosis 4.068079
Jarque-Bera 1.224778
Probability 0.542054
20000 40000
RESULTADOS DE LAS VENTAS (GWh)
CON AJUSTES ECONOMÉTRICOS
Modelo1 Modelo2 Modelo3 Modelo4 Modelo5 Modelo6
VENTAS ln(VENTAS) VENTAS ln(VENTAS) VENTAS ln(VENTAS)

AÑO (PBI) (lnPBI) (PBI+POB) (lnPOB+lnPBI) (PBI + CLI) (lnPBI + lnCLI)
1996 278 287 255 265 243 263

1997 309 314 290 291 292 303
1998 311 315 300 305 299 308
1999 322 325 318 323 312 320
2000 339 340 340 344 324 330
2001 332 334 342 352 360 358
2002 373 371 383 386 393 389
2003 392 388 405 409 417 411
2004 421 416 436 438 445 437
2005 461 453 475 475 487 476
2006 498 490 513 510 518 506
2007 600 591 602 586 585 575
2008 684 678 677 652 651 642
2009 685 679 684 669 673 665
2010 736 733 732 718 722 717
2011 775 775 771 762 765 763
2012 821 825 816 813 815 817
2013 843 849 841 849 850 855
2014 867 876 867 888 896 907
2015 903 917 904 937 938 954
2016 954 975 953 998 991 1,016
2017 1,010 1,039 1,006 1,063 1,048 1,083
2018 1,060 1,098 1,054 1,128 1,103 1,150
2019 1,113 1,160 1,104 1,196 1,160 1,220
2020 1,166 1,224 1,155 1,266 1,219 1,292
2021 1,221 1,290 1,207 1,339 1,279 1,368
2022 1,277 1,359 1,260 1,415 1,340 1,447
2023 1,334 1,430 1,314 1,494 1,403 1,529
2024 1,392 1,504 1,368 1,576 1,468 1,614
2025 1,452 1,580 1,424 1,660 1,534 1,702
2026 1,513 1,658 1,481 1,749 1,601 1,794
2027 1,576 1,739 1,539 1,841 1,671 1,889
2028 1,639 1,823 1,599 1,939 1,741 1,988
2029 1,704 1,909 1,659 2,039 1,814 2,090
2030 1,770 1,998 1,720 2,144 1,887 2,196
2031 1,838 2,090 1,783 2,253 1,963 2,306
2032 1,907 2,184 1,846 2,368 2,039 2,419
2033 1,977 2,282 1,911 2,487 2,118 2,536
2034 2,048 2,382 1,977 2,611 2,197 2,657
2035 2,120 2,484 2,044 2,740 2,279 2,781
2036 2,194 2,590 2,112 2,875 2,362 2,910
2037 2,269 2,698 2,181 3,014 2,446 3,042
2038 2,346 2,809 2,252 3,160 2,532 3,179
2039 2,424 2,924 2,323 3,311 2,620 3,319
2040 2,503 3,041 2,396 3,470 2,709 3,464
2041 2,583 3,161 2,470 3,633 2,799 3,613
2042 2,664 3,284 2,545 3,804 2,891 3,766
2043 2,747 3,410 2,620 3,981 2,985 3,923
2044 2,831 3,539 2,698 4,166 3,080 4,085
2045 2,917 3,672 2,776 4,356 3,176 4,251
2046 3,003 3,807 2,855 4,557 3,274 4,422
TC 10% 8% 9% 6% 8% 6%
RESULTADOS DE LAS VENTAS (GWh)

5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 2
VENTAS ln(VENTAS) VENTAS ln(VENTAS) V

(PBI) (lnPBI) (PBI+POB) (lnPOB+lnPBI) (P
VENTAS VENTAS ln(VENTAS)

(PBI + PRE) (PBI+CLI+POB) (lnPOB+lnPBI+lnCLI)
AS (GWh)
RICOS
Modelo7 Modelo8 Modelo9
ln(VENTAS)
VENTAS VENTAS
(lnPOB+lnPBI+ln
(PBI + PRE) (PBI+CLI+POB)
CLI)
291 260 262

322 311 300
316 305 307
325 315 320
341 325 332
330 361 358
364 381 389
383 407 411
413 435 438
459 486 476
497 518 508
591 568 577
675 633 643
682 667 665
733 715 717
772 759 762
827 823 816
849 861 854
879 920 904
914 960 952
963 1,010 1,014
1,016 1,063 1,081
1,065 1,115 1,147
1,115 1,169 1,217
1,166 1,225 1,289
1,218 1,282 1,364
1,272 1,340 1,443
1,327 1,400 1,524
1,383 1,461 1,609
1,440 1,524 1,697
1,499 1,588 1,789
1,559 1,654 1,884
1,620 1,721 1,983
1,682 1,789 2,085
1,745 1,860 2,191
1,810 1,931 2,301
1,876 2,004 2,415
1,943 2,079 2,533
2,012 2,155 2,655
2,081 2,232 2,781
2,152 2,311 2,911
2,224 2,391 3,046
2,297 2,473 3,185
2,372 2,556 3,328
2,448 2,641 3,476
2,525 2,727 3,628
2,603 2,815 3,786
2,682 2,904 3,948
2,763 2,995 4,115
2,845 3,087 4,286
2,928 3,180 4,464
10% 9% 6%
VENTAS (GWh)
4 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46
02 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
ln(VENTAS) VENTAS ln(VENTAS)

(lnPOB+lnPBI) (PBI + CLI) (lnPBI + lnCLI)
m1 m6
Dependent Variable: VTAS Dependent Variable: LOG(VTAS)
Method: Least Squares Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/03/15 Time: 01:01 Date: 05/03/15 Time: 01:01
Sample (adjusted): 1996 2014 Sample (adjusted): 1996 2014

Included observations: 19 after adjustments Included observations: 19 after adju
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. Variable
C -155602.3 23695.52 -6.566739 0 C

PBIA9_P 82.94963 2.752044 30.1411 0 LOG(PBIA9_P)
LOG(CLIE_P)
Adjusted R-squared 0.980551 S.D. dependent var 211626.7 R-squared
S.E. of regression 29513.58 Akaike info criterion 23.52239 Adjusted R-squared
Sum squared resid 1.48E+10 Schwarz criterion 23.6218 S.E. of regression
Log likelihood -221.4627 Hannan-Quinn criter. 23.53921 Sum squared resid
F-statistic 908.4857 Durbin-Watson stat 0.842697 Log likelihood
Prob(F-statistic) 0 F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
m2 m7
Dependent Variable: LOG(VTAS) Dependent Variable: VTAS
Method: Least Squares Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/03/15 Time: 01:01 Date: 05/03/15 Time: 01:01
Sample (adjusted): 1996 2014 Sample (adjusted): 1996 2014
Included observations: 19 after adjustments Included observations: 19 after adju
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. Variable
C 1.41351 0.3725 3.794658 0.0014 C

LOG(PBIA9_P) 1.302576 0.041486 31.39798 0 PBIA9_P
PREM_P
Adjusted R-squared 0.982051 S.D. dependent var 0.399456 R-squared
S.E. of regression 0.053517 Akaike info criterion -2.918336 Adjusted R-squared
Sum squared resid 0.048689 Schwarz criterion -2.818922 S.E. of regression
Log likelihood 29.7242 Hannan-Quinn criter. -2.901512 Sum squared resid
F-statistic 985.8329 Durbin-Watson stat 0.936682 Log likelihood
Prob(F-statistic) 0 F-statistic
m3 Prob(F-statistic)
Dependent Variable: VTAS m8
Method: Least Squares Dependent Variable: VTAS
Date: 05/03/15 Time: 01:01 Method: Least Squares
Sample (adjusted): 1996 2014 Date: 05/03/15 Time: 01:01
Included observations: 19 after adjustments Sample (adjusted): 1996 2014
Included observations: 19 after adju
Variable
C -612478 273158.4 -2.242208 0.0395
PBIA9_P 67.91185 9.334252 7.275553 0 C
POBA9_P 0.510045 0.303909 1.678281 0.1127 PBIA9_P
CLIE_P
R-squared 0.984381 Mean dependent var 528828.2 PREM_P
Adjusted R-squared 0.982428 S.D. dependent var 211626.7
S.E. of regression 28052.75 Akaike info criterion 23.4655 R-squared
Sum squared resid 1.26E+10 Schwarz criterion 23.61462 Adjusted R-squared
Log likelihood -219.9222 Hannan-Quinn criter. 23.49074 S.E. of regression
F-statistic 504.1918 Durbin-Watson stat 0.761287 Sum squared resid
Prob(F-statistic) 0 Log likelihood
m4 F-statistic
Dependent Variable: LOG(VTAS) Prob(F-statistic)
Method: Least Squares m9
Date: 05/03/15 Time: 01:01 Dependent Variable: LOG(VTAS)
Sample (adjusted): 1996 2014 Method: Least Squares
Included observations: 19 after adjustments Date: 05/03/15 Time: 01:01
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. Included observations: 19 after adju
C -27.29065 5.620575 -4.85549 0.0002 Variable

LOG(POBA9_P) 2.396108 0.468767 5.111511 0.0001
LOG(PBIA9_P) 0.778189 0.10592 7.346939 0 C
LOG(PBIA9_P)
R-squared 0.993562 Mean dependent var 13.1029 LOG(CLIE_P)
Adjusted R-squared 0.992757 S.D. dependent var 0.399456 LOG(POBA9_P)
S.E. of regression 0.033996 Akaike info criterion -3.781186
Sum squared resid 0.018492 Schwarz criterion -3.632064 R-squared
Log likelihood 38.92127 Hannan-Quinn criter. -3.755949 Adjusted R-squared
F-statistic 1234.555 Durbin-Watson stat 1.312717 S.E. of regression
Prob(F-statistic) 0 Sum squared resid
m5 Log likelihood
Dependent Variable: VTAS F-statistic
Method: Least Squares Prob(F-statistic)
Date: 05/03/15 Time: 01:01
Included observations: 19 after adjustments
C -203207.1 19629.71 -10.35201 0

PBIA9_P 36.97834 10.58781 3.492539 0.003
CLIE_P 1.744409 0.395205 4.413933 0.0004

Adjusted R-squared 0.990682 S.D. dependent var 211626.7
S.E. of regression 20428.54 Akaike info criterion 22.83119
Sum squared resid 6.68E+09 Schwarz criterion 22.98031
Log likelihood -213.8963 Hannan-Quinn criter. 22.85643
F-statistic 957.8479 Durbin-Watson stat 1.02967
Prob(F-statistic) 0
ent Variable: LOG(VTAS)
Least Squares 1
/03/15 Time: 01:01 2
adjusted): 1996 2014 3

observations: 19 after adjustments 4
5
Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 6
7
-1.867573 0.590057 -3.165073 0.006 8
0.608933 0.118677 5.130992 0.0001 9
0.768389 0.128792 5.966118 0
0.994743 Mean dependent var 13.1029

0.994086 S.D. dependent var 0.399456
0.015099 Schwarz criterion -3.834779
1513.786 Durbin-Watson stat 2.035242
0
ent Variable: VTAS

Least Squares
/03/15 Time: 01:01
adjusted): 1996 2014
observations: 19 after adjustments
-207607.1 54829.71 -3.786398 0.0016

79.56048 4.233848 18.79153 0
7770.358 7393.088 1.05103 0.3089

0.98067 S.D. dependent var 211626.7
29423.14 Akaike info criterion 23.56089
1.39E+10 Schwarz criterion 23.71001
-220.8285 Hannan-Quinn criter. 23.58613
0
ent Variable: VTAS

Least Squares
/03/15 Time: 01:01
-296974.1 34089.55 -8.711587 0

25.61879 9.282885 2.759787 0.0146
1.95799 0.325798 6.00982 0
13139.43 4231.56 3.105102 0.0072

0.99395 S.D. dependent var 211626.7
16461.23 Akaike info criterion 22.44007
4.06E+09 Schwarz criterion 22.6389
-209.1806 Hannan-Quinn criter. 22.47372
0
ent Variable: LOG(VTAS)

Least Squares
/03/15 Time: 01:01
-6.781113 12.03564 -0.563419 0.5815

0.624359 0.127601 4.893071 0.0002
0.640843 0.33891 1.890895 0.0781
0.455627 1.114635 0.408768 0.6885

0.993761 S.D. dependent var 0.399456
0.014933 Schwarz criterion -3.690886
0
Modelo R2 F t1
vtas c pbia2_p 0.9816 908.486 30.141
log(vtas) c log(pbia2_p) 0.9830 985.833 31.398
vtas c pbia2_p poba2_p 0.9844 504.192 7.276
log(vtas) c log(poba2_p) log(pbia2_p) 0.9936 1,234.555 5.112
vtas c pbia2_p clie_p 0.9917 957.848 3.493
log(vtas) c log(pbia2_p) log(clie_p) 0.9947 1,513.786 5.131
vtas c pbia2_p prem_p 0.9828 457.592 18.792
vtas c pbia2_p clie_p prem_p 0.9950 986.671 2.760
log(vtas) c log(pbia2_p) log(clie_p) log(poba2_p) 0.9948 956.711 4.893
t2 t3
1.678
7.347
4.414
5.966
1.051
6.010 3.105
1.891 0.409
PROYECCIÓN DE VENTAS GLOBALES(1) DE ENERGÍA (MWh) DE USUARIOS
REGULADOS
AREA DE DEMANDA: 9
AÑO NIVEL DE TENSIÓN: TOTAL Tasa de
AT MT BT VENTAS Crecimiento
2013 593 294,321 571,965 866,879

2014 533 314,886 595,839 911,258 5.12%
2015 533 332,542 629,248 962,324 5.60%
2016 533 353,226 668,386 1,022,145 6.22%
2017 533 375,261 710,082 1,085,876 6.24%
2018 533 396,917 751,061 1,148,511 5.77%
2019 533 419,318 793,448 1,213,300 5.64%
2020 533 442,431 837,183 1,280,147 5.51%
2021 533 466,254 882,262 1,349,049 5.38%
2022 533 490,802 928,711 1,420,046 5.26%
2023 533 516,056 976,500 1,493,089 5.14%
2024 533 542,017 1,025,624 1,568,174 5.03%
2025 533 568,699 1,076,112 1,645,345 4.92%
2026 533 596,085 1,127,933 1,724,552 4.81%
2027 533 624,191 1,181,115 1,805,839 4.71%
2028 533 652,998 1,235,626 1,889,157 4.61%
2029 533 682,507 1,291,464 1,974,505 4.52%
2030 533 712,734 1,348,660 2,061,927 4.43%
2031 533 743,677 1,407,212 2,151,423 4.34%
2032 533 775,304 1,467,057 2,242,894 4.25%
2033 533 807,647 1,528,257 2,336,436 4.17%
2034 533 840,705 1,590,811 2,432,049 4.09%
2035 533 874,462 1,654,686 2,529,681 4.01%
2036 533 908,917 1,719,883 2,629,333 3.94%
2037 533 944,086 1,786,433 2,731,052 3.87%
2038 533 979,954 1,854,302 2,834,789 3.80%
2039 533 1,016,536 1,923,523 2,940,592 3.73%
2040 533 1,053,815 1,994,064 3,048,412 3.67%
2041 533 1,091,790 2,065,923 3,158,247 3.60%
2042 533 1,130,480 2,139,134 3,270,148 3.54%
2043 533 1,169,867 2,213,663 3,384,063 3.48%
2044 533 1,209,968 2,289,542 3,500,043 3.43%
2045 533 1,250,765 2,366,740 3,618,038 3.37%
2046 533 1,292,258 2,445,255 3,738,046 3.32%
TASA PROMEDIO (%) : 4.57% 4.57% 4.57%

Fuente: SICOM
dpto ademannombresistematra
MOQUEGUA 9 Puquina-Omate-Ubinas
MOQUEGUA 9 Puquina-Omate-Ubinas
AREQUIPA 9 Arequipa
AREQUIPA 9 Arequipa
AREQUIPA 9 Arequipa
AREQUIPA 9 Camaná, Chuquibamba, Majes-Siguas, Repartición-La Cano,
AREQUIPA 9 Islay
AREQUIPA 9 Islay
AREQUIPA 9 Islay
AREQUIPA 9 Orcopampa, Valle del Colca
AREQUIPA 8 Bella Unión - Chala
SE Tension 1996 1997
Puquina-Omate-Ubinas BT 362 281
Puquina-Omate-Ubinas MT
Arequipa AT 4,405 5,236
Arequipa BT 209,350 208,913
Arequipa MT 65,807 71,561
Camana. Chuquibamba, Valle de Majes - Siguas y AT
Camana. Chuquibamba, Valle de Majes - Siguas y BT
Camana. Chuquibamba, Valle de Majes - Siguas y MT
Islay AT
Islay BT 926
Islay MT 143
Orcopampa BT
Orcopampa MT
Reparticion - La Cano AT
Reparticion - La Cano BT
Reparticion - La Cano MT
Valle del Colca AT
Valle del Colca BT
Valle del Colca MT
Bella Unión - Chala AT
Bella Unión - Chala BT
Bella Unión - Chala MT
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
320 378 559 654
216,817 217,521 218,811 226,959 246,969

78,700 84,529 88,508 90,701 101,567
5,364 4,151
1,414 17
11,006 10,703 11,646 11,995 12,868

4,082 6,166 6,787 6,985 9,533
1,815 7,299
2,151 8,460
1,596 1,640
65 49
3,160 2,380
1,869
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
741 888 1,009 1,196 1,480
4 379 5,788 6,638
0
254,655 273,929 288,168 313,353 333,993
106,823 117,070 121,507 127,411 135,582
0
5,361 5,873 8,669 21,547 25,255
18 126 2,008 11,816 13,413
0 0
13,125 14,861 16,430 17,828 17,924
10,113 9,455 7,990 9,102 11,302
113 930 1,120
1 24 140
0
8,000 9,333 8,921 4,283 4,956
10,845 11,966 11,009 3,783 4,914
0
1,812 2,066 2,311 2,472 2,742
44 81 155 226 406
0
1,761 2,172 2,604 2,990 3,355
665 3,981 5,174 7,321 9,024
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1,798 1,963 2,149 2,242 2,332
13,952 21,125 22,515 29,289 22,834
352,519 374,839 401,542 433,244 457,465

151,104 154,299 169,552 207,558 216,198
28,765 33,251 37,511 41,839 45,498

15,088 17,004 19,005 20,042 20,842
18,654 20,448 21,894 22,982 24,259

10,680 9,605 8,925 10,581 11,541
1,242 1,621 1,953 2,346 2,580
116 123 133 115 121
5,267 6,125 7,366 8,874 9,610

7,812 9,193 9,327 11,453 13,425
572
3,201 3,201 3,345 3,548 3,619
834 1,060 1,079 1,106 1,049
3,844 4,550 5,369 6,437 7,272

15,113 14,788 19,360 24,302 25,988
2013 2014
2,362 2,350 BT
10,172 8,975 MT
AT
479,782 499,110 BT
230,640 248,464 MT
AT
48,706 51,512 BT
22,561 24,332 MT
AT
24,782 25,998 BT
15,458 15,331 MT
2,655 2,446 BT
70 130 MT
AT
10,018 10,727 BT
14,296 16,489 MT
593 533 AT
3,661 3,695 BT
1,125 1,165 MT
AT
7,856 8,459 BT
27,624 27,926 MT
OSINERGMIN
RESUMEN DE LA PROYECCION DE
AREA DE DEMANDA: 9
SISTEMA SUBESTACIÓN BARRA
Arequipa ALTO CAYMA ALTOC010

Arequipa CHALLAPAMPA CHALP011
Arequipa CHILINA CHILI010
Arequipa CONO NORTE CONOR010
Arequipa JESUS JESUS010
Arequipa LAMBRAMANI LAMBR010
Arequipa PARQUE INDUSTRIAL 04 PQSEA010
Arequipa PORONGOCHE PORON010
Arequipa REAL PLAZA REALP010
Arequipa SAN LAZARO SLAZA010
Arequipa SOCABAYA SOCAB010
Arequipa YURA YURA30
Arequipa SANTUARIO SANTU138
Arequipa PARQUE INDUSTRIAL 04 PQSEA033
Arequipa ACERS33 ACERS033
Arequipa MCERROVERDE CVERD220
Arequipa CERRO VERDE CVERD138
Camana. Chuquibamba, Valle de Majes - Siguas y Pampacolca CAMANA CAMAN010
Camana. Chuquibamba, Valle de Majes - Siguas y Pampacolca CHUQUIBAMBA CHUQU023
Camana. Chuquibamba, Valle de Majes - Siguas y Pampacolca MAJES MAJES023
Camana. Chuquibamba, Valle de Majes - Siguas y Pampacolca CORIRE PCOL013
Islay AGUA LIMA AGUAL010
Islay COCACHACRA COCAC010
Islay CHUCARAPI CHUCA010
Islay LA CURVA LCURV010
Islay MATARANI MATAR010
Islay MEJIA MEJIA010
Islay MOLLENDO MOLLE010
Islay MATARANI MATAR033
Orcopampa, Valle del Colca HUANCARAMA HUAN023
Orcopampa, Valle del Colca CALLALLI CALL023
Orcopampa, Valle del Colca CALLALLI CALL066
Orcopampa, Valle del Colca ARES ARES066
Orcopampa, Valle del Colca CAYLLOMA CAYL015
Reparticion - La Cano REPARTICION REPAR023
DE LA PROYECCION DE LA POTENCIA COINCIDENTE A NIVEL SISTEMA (MW)
TENSIÓN POTENCIA (MW)

(kV) 2016 2017 2018 2019
10 7.39 7.88 8.36 8.86
10.5 19.15 20.76 22.35 23.99
10 20.44 21.75 23.06 24.41
10 7.07 7.68 8.28 8.90
10 19.46 20.67 21.85 23.09
10 3.52 3.73 3.95 4.17
10 37.84 40.28 42.70 45.19
10 10.67 11.33 11.98 12.65
10 6.41 6.96 7.52 8.08
10 17.87 19.04 20.20 21.40
10 18.29 19.55 20.80 22.09
30 9.47 9.47 9.47 9.47
138 14.73 14.73 14.73 14.73
33 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77
33 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36
220 122.41 122.41 122.41 122.41
138 36.95 36.95 36.95 36.95
10 5.96 6.39 6.81 7.24
22.9 1.41 1.51 1.61 1.71
22.9 7.71 8.35 8.98 9.62
13.2 1.86 2.00 2.13 2.27
10 3.78 3.85 3.93 4.01
10 0.71 0.74 0.77 0.81
10 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20
10 1.28 1.34 1.40 1.46
10 2.21 2.31 2.41 2.51
10 1.04 1.11 1.19 1.27
10 1.86 1.95 2.03 2.12
33 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
23 0.96 1.01 1.06 1.11
23 2.10 2.28 2.45 2.62
66 9.95 9.95 9.95 9.95
66 10.02 10.02 10.02 10.02
15 3.14 3.14 3.14 3.14
23 8.51 9.36 10.19 11.04
Sistema SST 2016 2017 2018 2019

Arequipa 353.8 365.3 376.7 388.5
Camana. Chuquibamba, Valle de Majes - Siguas y Pampacolca 16.9 18.3 19.5 20.8
Islay 12.0 12.4 12.9 13.4
Orcopampa, Valle del Colca 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.8
Reparticion - La Cano 8.5 9.4 10.2 11.0
TOTAL 417.4 431.8 446.0 460.6
Sistema SST 2017 2018 2019 2020

Arequipa 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%
Camana. Chuquibamba, Valle de Majes - Siguas y Pampacolc 7.8% 7.0% 6.7% 6.3%
Islay 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%
Orcopampa, Valle del Colca 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
Reparticion - La Cano 10.0% 8.9% 8.3% 7.7%
POTENCIA (MW)
2020 2021 2026 2036 2046
9.37 9.90 12.78 19.52 27.57
25.65 27.35 36.40 54.08 72.15
25.80 27.24 35.10 53.70 76.18
9.53 10.17 13.58 20.12 26.67
24.36 25.68 32.93 50.61 72.45
4.40 4.64 5.95 9.14 13.09
47.77 50.43 64.96 99.14 140.31
13.35 14.08 18.05 27.74 39.71
8.65 9.24 12.34 18.27 24.18
22.64 23.91 30.88 47.15 66.65
23.41 24.78 32.18 48.88 68.36
9.47 9.47 9.47 9.47 9.47
14.73 14.73 14.73 14.73 14.73
1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77
0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36
122.41 122.41 122.41 122.41 122.41
36.95 36.95 36.95 36.95 36.95
7.67 8.11 10.42 15.59 21.51
1.82 1.92 2.47 3.69 5.09
10.26 10.92 14.31 21.08 28.10
2.40 2.54 3.26 4.88 6.73
4.09 4.17 4.64 5.82 7.36
0.84 0.88 1.07 1.57 2.23
1.25 1.31 1.60 2.35 3.33
1.53 1.59 1.95 2.86 4.05
2.61 2.72 3.31 4.80 6.77
1.34 1.42 1.84 2.63 3.43
2.21 2.30 2.83 4.14 5.87
0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
1.16 1.21 1.45 1.89 2.32
2.79 2.96 3.80 5.00 5.75
9.95 9.95 9.95 9.95 9.95
10.02 10.02 10.02 10.02 10.02
3.14 3.14 3.14 3.14 3.14
11.89 12.75 17.16 24.78 31.44
2020 2021 2026 2036 2046

400.6 413.1 480.8 634.0 813.0
22.2 23.5 30.5 45.2 61.4
13.9 14.4 17.3 24.2 33.1
27.1 27.3 28.3 30.0 31.2
11.9 12.7 17.2 24.8 31.4
475.6 491.1 574.1 758.2 970.1
2021 2016-2026 2016-2036 2016-2046

3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 2.8%
6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.4%
3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.4%
0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6%
7.2% 7.3% 5.5% 4.5%

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Código Descripción Área de Demanda Sistema Peajes

SE0134 Arequipa 9 Arequipa

Camana. Chuquibamba, Valle deAT

Camana. Chuquibamba, Valle de Majes - Siguas y Pampacolca

Valle del Colca AT

Valle del Colca

Bella Unión - Chala

361.52 280.75 319.66 377.74 0.00 558.79

es - Siguas y Pampacolca 6,778.03

926.21 11,006.14 10,702.78 11,646.11 11,994.72

279,923.20 287,060.53 310,924.80 319,296.16 325,752.44 349,603.73

246,969.34 254,655.13 273,928.83 288,168.47 313,352.70

333,992.58 352,519.49 374,838.90 401,542.28 433,244.22

25,254.71 28,764.51 33,251.16 37,510.56 41,839.02

4,955.53 5,267.39 6,124.61 7,366.07 8,874.47

2,742.14 3,200.68 3,200.69 3,345.34 3,547.69

3,355.28 3,844.41 4,550.11 5,368.58 6,437.17

457,464.63 479,781.87 499,110.27

45,498.37 48,705.92 51,512.20

24,258.89 24,782.05 25,998.12

9,609.82 10,017.60 10,726.63

7,271.97 7,855.81 8,459.32

AÑO Mercado Regulado Clientes

VENTAS HISTORICAS DE ENERGÍA (MWh)

VENTAS HISTORICAS DE ENERGÍA (MWh)

Camaná, Chuquibamba, Majes-Siguas, Repartición-La Cano, Valle de Majes

VENTAS HISTORICAS DE ENERGÍA (MWh)

VENTAS HISTORICAS DE ENERGÍA (MWh)

VENTAS HISTORICAS DE ENERGÍA (MWh)

VENTAS HISTORICAS DE ENERGÍA (MWh)

VENTAS HISTORICAS DE ENERGÍA (MWh)

AÑO Mercado Regulado

(1) No incluye pérdidas en media y baja tensión.

DEPARTAMENTOS 1993 1994 1995 1996

Departamento 1994 1995 1996 1997

VARIABLE EXPLICATIVA: PRECIO MEDIO

147,192 VARIABLE EXPLICATIVA: CLIENTES

Cuadro Nº 1B.- POBLACIÓN

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

PRODUCTO BRUTO INTERNO POR DEPARTAMENTOS

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

VARIABLE EXPLICATIVA: POBLACION REGIONAL

AREQUIPA MOQUEGUA AREA9

1,014,592 142,028 1,004,164

2011 2012 2013

5.6% 8.5% 5.2%

Fecha Analistas Sistema

Expectativas anuales de 1999

31 de julio de 1999 2.6%

Expectativas anuales del 2000

31 de julio de 1999 4.5%

Expectativas anuales del 2001

10 de junio del 2000 5.0%

Expectativas anuales del 2002

27 de abril del 2001 3.5%

Expectativas anuales del 2003