International journal of mass emergencies and disasters, 2001
This paper directly models individual and household hurricane evacuation behavior using ethnograp... more This paper directly models individual and household hurricane evacuation behavior using ethnographic decision tree analysis. This approach uses a set of iterative processes to inductively derive a general decision model from specific individual decision models. To elicit the model described here, below the authors and several graduate students interviewed Miami residents who had been in South Florida during both Hurricanes Andrew in 1992 and Erin in 1995. The resulting model of hurricane evacuation decision processes was then tested with interview data collected from a separate random sample of 954 South Florida residents drawn from areas that were evacuation zones and areas immediately adjacent to them at the time of Hurricane Andrew. The model captures the complexity and messiness of real-life decision-making by including criteria showing how people are constrained by their perceptions of the hurricane, the safety features of their homes, the time they have available to prepare for the hurricane, their age, and the reactions of other family members who are also deciding whether or not to evacuate. By showing the richness of the decision process as well as its messiness, results taken from this model can better inform emergency managers who need to know how people will react to the approach of a hurricane.
Telephone surveys with national probability samples of English-speaking adults have suggested tha... more Telephone surveys with national probability samples of English-speaking adults have suggested that popular support for punitive policies toward people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) declined in the 1990s, but AIDS-related stigma persists in the United States. Our aim was to assess the prevalence and impact of AIDS-related stigma in non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic communities. A cross-sectional computer-assisted telephone-interview survey was conducted in summer 2003 with African-American, Afro-Caribbean, Haitian, and Hispanic 18-39 year-old residents of 12 high AIDS-incidence areas in Broward County, Florida. Stigma items were adopted from national surveys, but interviews were conducted in Spanish and Haitian Creole as well as in English. Stigma scores were higher than those reported for national samples, especially among Haitians interviewed in Creole. AIDS-related stigma was associated with never receiving an HIV-antibody test (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.78, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.62-0.99, P = .046), an elevated perception of HIV risk (AOR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.01-1.73, P = .045) and a failure to participate in HIV-prevention efforts (AOR = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.34-0.85, P = .008). Interventions are needed to mitigate the pernicious effects of AIDS-related stigma.
Many assertions made about indigenous traders, fail to take into account the knowledge systems th... more Many assertions made about indigenous traders, fail to take into account the knowledge systems these traders utilize to function in their market system. One such set of assertions is made about women traders in West Africa, namely that they lack economic ability and motivation, exert ...
Journal of transportation engineering, Dec 1, 2014
The objectives of this paper are to identify the contributing factors to households’ choice of th... more The objectives of this paper are to identify the contributing factors to households’ choice of the number of vehicles used for evacuation and to develop predictive models of this choice that explicitly consider the constraint imposed by the number of vehicles owned by the household. This constraint is not accommodated by regular ordered response logit models. Data comes from a poststorm survey for Hurricane Ivan. Two models that are variants of the regular Poisson regression model are developed: a Poisson model with exposure and right-censored Poisson regression. The right-censored Poisson model is preferred due to its inherent capabilities, better fit to the data, and superior predictive power. The model and individual variable analyses indicate that households traveling longer distances or evacuating later are more likely to use fewer vehicles. Households with prior hurricane experience and pet owners are more likely to use a greater number of vehicles. Income and distance from the coast are insignificant in the multivariable models, although the individual effect of distance from the coast has a statistically significant bivariate relationship with vehicle usage choice based on the Pearson correlation measure. A method for using the right-censored Poisson model to produce the desired share of vehicle usage is also discussed for generating individual predictions for hurricane evacuation demand simulation.
Hurricanes cause some of the worst traffic conditions, affecting evacuees’ ability to reach safet... more Hurricanes cause some of the worst traffic conditions, affecting evacuees’ ability to reach safety before they are subjected to high winds, heavy rain, and flooding. This paper is one of the few to use a panel survey to examine similar household decisions over consecutive hurricanes. The study focuses on Hurricanes Ivan and Katrina, which were of similar strength and followed similar paths, and is fairly comprehensive in the number of traffic-related decisions considered. Contingency tables, binary logit models, and Goodman and Kruskal's gamma measure were used to examine the effects of previous decisions on (a) whether to evacuate, (b) day of departure, (c) destination type and location, (d) number of household vehicles taken, and (e) reason for route selection. Through the statistical analyses, it was discovered that (a) to a great extent, citizens made the same decision to evacuate or stay for Katrina as they did for Ivan, and higher incomes were not significant in changing that decision; (b) some evacuees departed earlier, but most evacuees departed on the last day possible; (c) most evacuees selected the same type of accommodations and made the same inside-the-county-or-parish or out-of-the-county-or-parish decisions in consecutive evacuations; (d) the number of household vehicles used in the evacuation did not decrease; and (e) route guidance as a selection criterion did not depend on previous evacuation experience.
AbstractHurricanes often threaten to have catastrophic impacts on the lives of residents in coast... more AbstractHurricanes often threaten to have catastrophic impacts on the lives of residents in coastal areas of the U.S. Timely evacuation limits this impact, but people may choose to evacuate or not ...
International journal of mass emergencies and disasters, 2001
This paper directly models individual and household hurricane evacuation behavior using ethnograp... more This paper directly models individual and household hurricane evacuation behavior using ethnographic decision tree analysis. This approach uses a set of iterative processes to inductively derive a general decision model from specific individual decision models. To elicit the model described here, below the authors and several graduate students interviewed Miami residents who had been in South Florida during both Hurricanes Andrew in 1992 and Erin in 1995. The resulting model of hurricane evacuation decision processes was then tested with interview data collected from a separate random sample of 954 South Florida residents drawn from areas that were evacuation zones and areas immediately adjacent to them at the time of Hurricane Andrew. The model captures the complexity and messiness of real-life decision-making by including criteria showing how people are constrained by their perceptions of the hurricane, the safety features of their homes, the time they have available to prepare for the hurricane, their age, and the reactions of other family members who are also deciding whether or not to evacuate. By showing the richness of the decision process as well as its messiness, results taken from this model can better inform emergency managers who need to know how people will react to the approach of a hurricane.
Telephone surveys with national probability samples of English-speaking adults have suggested tha... more Telephone surveys with national probability samples of English-speaking adults have suggested that popular support for punitive policies toward people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) declined in the 1990s, but AIDS-related stigma persists in the United States. Our aim was to assess the prevalence and impact of AIDS-related stigma in non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic communities. A cross-sectional computer-assisted telephone-interview survey was conducted in summer 2003 with African-American, Afro-Caribbean, Haitian, and Hispanic 18-39 year-old residents of 12 high AIDS-incidence areas in Broward County, Florida. Stigma items were adopted from national surveys, but interviews were conducted in Spanish and Haitian Creole as well as in English. Stigma scores were higher than those reported for national samples, especially among Haitians interviewed in Creole. AIDS-related stigma was associated with never receiving an HIV-antibody test (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.78, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.62-0.99, P = .046), an elevated perception of HIV risk (AOR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.01-1.73, P = .045) and a failure to participate in HIV-prevention efforts (AOR = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.34-0.85, P = .008). Interventions are needed to mitigate the pernicious effects of AIDS-related stigma.
Many assertions made about indigenous traders, fail to take into account the knowledge systems th... more Many assertions made about indigenous traders, fail to take into account the knowledge systems these traders utilize to function in their market system. One such set of assertions is made about women traders in West Africa, namely that they lack economic ability and motivation, exert ...
Journal of transportation engineering, Dec 1, 2014
The objectives of this paper are to identify the contributing factors to households’ choice of th... more The objectives of this paper are to identify the contributing factors to households’ choice of the number of vehicles used for evacuation and to develop predictive models of this choice that explicitly consider the constraint imposed by the number of vehicles owned by the household. This constraint is not accommodated by regular ordered response logit models. Data comes from a poststorm survey for Hurricane Ivan. Two models that are variants of the regular Poisson regression model are developed: a Poisson model with exposure and right-censored Poisson regression. The right-censored Poisson model is preferred due to its inherent capabilities, better fit to the data, and superior predictive power. The model and individual variable analyses indicate that households traveling longer distances or evacuating later are more likely to use fewer vehicles. Households with prior hurricane experience and pet owners are more likely to use a greater number of vehicles. Income and distance from the coast are insignificant in the multivariable models, although the individual effect of distance from the coast has a statistically significant bivariate relationship with vehicle usage choice based on the Pearson correlation measure. A method for using the right-censored Poisson model to produce the desired share of vehicle usage is also discussed for generating individual predictions for hurricane evacuation demand simulation.
Hurricanes cause some of the worst traffic conditions, affecting evacuees’ ability to reach safet... more Hurricanes cause some of the worst traffic conditions, affecting evacuees’ ability to reach safety before they are subjected to high winds, heavy rain, and flooding. This paper is one of the few to use a panel survey to examine similar household decisions over consecutive hurricanes. The study focuses on Hurricanes Ivan and Katrina, which were of similar strength and followed similar paths, and is fairly comprehensive in the number of traffic-related decisions considered. Contingency tables, binary logit models, and Goodman and Kruskal's gamma measure were used to examine the effects of previous decisions on (a) whether to evacuate, (b) day of departure, (c) destination type and location, (d) number of household vehicles taken, and (e) reason for route selection. Through the statistical analyses, it was discovered that (a) to a great extent, citizens made the same decision to evacuate or stay for Katrina as they did for Ivan, and higher incomes were not significant in changing that decision; (b) some evacuees departed earlier, but most evacuees departed on the last day possible; (c) most evacuees selected the same type of accommodations and made the same inside-the-county-or-parish or out-of-the-county-or-parish decisions in consecutive evacuations; (d) the number of household vehicles used in the evacuation did not decrease; and (e) route guidance as a selection criterion did not depend on previous evacuation experience.
AbstractHurricanes often threaten to have catastrophic impacts on the lives of residents in coast... more AbstractHurricanes often threaten to have catastrophic impacts on the lives of residents in coastal areas of the U.S. Timely evacuation limits this impact, but people may choose to evacuate or not ...
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