One assumption common to all models for determining the optimal number of options per item (e. g.... more One assumption common to all models for determining the optimal number of options per item (e. g., Lord, 1977) is that total testing time is proportional to the number of items and the number of options per item. Therefore, under this assumption given a fixed testing time, the test can be shortened or lengthened by deleting or adding a proportional number of options. The present study examines the validity of this assumption in three tests which were administered with 2, 3, 4, and 5 options per item. The number of items attempted in the first 10 and 15 minutes of the testing session and the time needed to complete the tests were recorded. Thus, the rate of performance for both fixed time and fixed test length was analyzed. A strong and consistently negative relationship between rate of performance and the number of options was detected in all tests. Thus, the empirical results did not support the assumption of proportionality. Furthermore, the data indicated that the method by which options are deleted can play a role in this context. A more realistic assumption of generalized proportionality, proposed by Grier (1976), was supported by the results from a Mathematical Reasoning test, but was only partially supported for a Vocabulary and a Reading Comprehension test.
A general conclusion, widely and uniformly supported by a variety of experiments, is that humans ... more A general conclusion, widely and uniformly supported by a variety of experiments, is that humans are unable to produce a random series of discrete responses, even when instructed to do so. Several arguments are advanced to show that the experimental evidence in support of this claim is plagued with logical and methodological difficulties. Using a new research paradigm, this article reports experimental results showing that people can generate binary sequences that satisfy standard tests of randomness more successfully when they participate in 2-person strictly competitive games inducing them to conceal their choices and protect themselves from their own frailty to maximize gain. The results are discussed within the framework of existing theories of cognitive biases in random-sequence generation.
Following the study by Rapoport and Budescu (1992), two experiments are reported whose main purpo... more Following the study by Rapoport and Budescu (1992), two experiments are reported whose main purpose is to compare the generation of random sequences in one- and two-person games. The first experiment addresses the generation of trinary series in two-person zerosum games with asymmetric players. The second examines the generation of binary series using a between-subjects design, and compares the cognitive processes operating in one- and two-person games. Although both types of games result in similar deviations from randomness, they seem to induce qualitatively different cognitive processes.
Abstract This article evaluates and compares the performance of two ratio scaling methods, the ei... more Abstract This article evaluates and compares the performance of two ratio scaling methods, the eigenvalue method proposed by Saaty (1977, 1980) and the geometric mean procedure advocated by Williams and Crawford (1980), given random data. The two methods were ex amined in a series of monte carlo simulations for two response methods (direct estimation and constant sum) and various numbers of stimuli and response scales. The sampling distributions of the measures of consist ency of the two methods were tabulated, rules for ...
... The representations investigated vary from a single number (eg, Beyth-Marom, 1982), through a... more ... The representations investigated vary from a single number (eg, Beyth-Marom, 1982), through a range of numerical values (eg, Hamm, 1991), to functions representing acceptability (Mosteller & Youtz, 1990; Reagan, Mosteller, & Youtz, 1989) or membership (Wallsten, Budescu ...
One assumption common to all models for determining the optimal number of options per item (e. g.... more One assumption common to all models for determining the optimal number of options per item (e. g., Lord, 1977) is that total testing time is proportional to the number of items and the number of options per item. Therefore, under this assumption given a fixed testing time, the test can be shortened or lengthened by deleting or adding a proportional number of options. The present study examines the validity of this assumption in three tests which were administered with 2, 3, 4, and 5 options per item. The number of items attempted in the first 10 and 15 minutes of the testing session and the time needed to complete the tests were recorded. Thus, the rate of performance for both fixed time and fixed test length was analyzed. A strong and consistently negative relationship between rate of performance and the number of options was detected in all tests. Thus, the empirical results did not support the assumption of proportionality. Furthermore, the data indicated that the method by which options are deleted can play a role in this context. A more realistic assumption of generalized proportionality, proposed by Grier (1976), was supported by the results from a Mathematical Reasoning test, but was only partially supported for a Vocabulary and a Reading Comprehension test.
A general conclusion, widely and uniformly supported by a variety of experiments, is that humans ... more A general conclusion, widely and uniformly supported by a variety of experiments, is that humans are unable to produce a random series of discrete responses, even when instructed to do so. Several arguments are advanced to show that the experimental evidence in support of this claim is plagued with logical and methodological difficulties. Using a new research paradigm, this article reports experimental results showing that people can generate binary sequences that satisfy standard tests of randomness more successfully when they participate in 2-person strictly competitive games inducing them to conceal their choices and protect themselves from their own frailty to maximize gain. The results are discussed within the framework of existing theories of cognitive biases in random-sequence generation.
Following the study by Rapoport and Budescu (1992), two experiments are reported whose main purpo... more Following the study by Rapoport and Budescu (1992), two experiments are reported whose main purpose is to compare the generation of random sequences in one- and two-person games. The first experiment addresses the generation of trinary series in two-person zerosum games with asymmetric players. The second examines the generation of binary series using a between-subjects design, and compares the cognitive processes operating in one- and two-person games. Although both types of games result in similar deviations from randomness, they seem to induce qualitatively different cognitive processes.
Abstract This article evaluates and compares the performance of two ratio scaling methods, the ei... more Abstract This article evaluates and compares the performance of two ratio scaling methods, the eigenvalue method proposed by Saaty (1977, 1980) and the geometric mean procedure advocated by Williams and Crawford (1980), given random data. The two methods were ex amined in a series of monte carlo simulations for two response methods (direct estimation and constant sum) and various numbers of stimuli and response scales. The sampling distributions of the measures of consist ency of the two methods were tabulated, rules for ...
... The representations investigated vary from a single number (eg, Beyth-Marom, 1982), through a... more ... The representations investigated vary from a single number (eg, Beyth-Marom, 1982), through a range of numerical values (eg, Hamm, 1991), to functions representing acceptability (Mosteller & Youtz, 1990; Reagan, Mosteller, & Youtz, 1989) or membership (Wallsten, Budescu ...
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