Northern Honduras is already suffering catastrophic flooding from Sara and it's only just begun. Nearly 22 inches of rain has fallen in the past 24 hours at La Ceiba Airport with more ahead. Thankfully for Florida, we're only looking at remnants next week. michaelrlowry.substa…

We've seen some positive developments in the models for Florida next week, but unfortunately at the expense of an extreme and potentially catastrophic flood threat to Central America from today through Sunday. All the latest on newly-formed TD19 below ⬇️ michaelrlowry.substa…

Lots of interest in what Invest 99L/future Sara does next week, but can't overlook the extreme flood threat for northern Honduras beginning this weekend. Raw model output advertising rain totals approaching 50 inches (!!) through Monday. Ensemble means also wildly high nearby.

Sara's on track to form over the western Caribbean in the next day or two, but how close does it get to Central America this weekend? Conditions favor strengthening before it turns north into the Gulf but does land interrupt it before it reaches Florida? michaelrlowry.substa…

While a significant Caribbean hurricane looks likely by the weekend, I can't overstate the uncertainty for next week. Floridians should stay aware, but nothing's etched in stone. 8-9 days is an eternity in forecast hours. As I wrote, lots can change, especially this time of year.