In this discussion paper by colleagues at Harvard University, the future of a large U.S. electric... more In this discussion paper by colleagues at Harvard University, the future of a large U.S. electric vehicle market is examined based on key questions. To answer these questions, battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in electric vehicles (PHEVs), and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) are compared with current and projected future lifecycle costs and various scenarios (change in gas/electricity cost, battery cost, customer discount rates, and vehicle efficiency). It is found that currently BEVs and PHEVs are $4000-$5000 more than ICEVs based on lifecycle cost, but in 10-20 years BEVs will be $1000-$7000 cheaper than ICEVs while PHEVs will possible remain more expensive than ICEVs unless battery cost drops significantly and gas prices rise. It is concluded that for the electric vehicle market to increase substantially in the next 10-20 years, gas prices will need to be $4.50 to $5.50 per gallon while battery technology and range increase. However, this can be accelerated with ...
Background: Infants and young children with high weight-for-length are at increased risk for obes... more Background: Infants and young children with high weight-for-length are at increased risk for obesity in later life. This study describes prevalence of high weight-for-length and examines changes during 2010-2018 among 11,366,755 infants and young children 3-23 months of age in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). Methods: Children's weights and lengths were measured. High weight-for-length was defined as ≥2 standard deviations above sex and age-specific median on World Health Organization growth charts. Adjusted prevalence differences (APDs) between years were calculated as 100 times marginal effects from logistic regression models. APD was statistically significant if 95% confidence interval did not include 0. Results: Adjusted prevalence of high weight-for-length decreased from 2010 to 2014, and leveled off through 2018 overall, in boys and girls, those 6-11 and 18-23 months of age, and non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, Hispanics, and Asians/Pacific Islanders. For 12-17 months old and American Indian/Alaska Native infants and young children, adjusted prevalence decreased from 2010 to 2014, and then increased slightly through 2018. Among 56 WIC state or territorial agencies, 33 had significant decreases between 2010 and 2018, whereas 8 had significant increases. Between 2014 and 2018, prevalence decreased significantly in 12 agencies and increased significantly in 23. Conclusions: The results indicate overall declines in prevalence of high weight-for-length from 2010 to 2018, with a prevalence stabilization since 2014. Continued surveillance is needed. Obesity prevention strategies in WIC and multiple settings are important for ensuring healthy child growth.
This report estimates the retail value of the average Food Distribution Program on Indian Reserva... more This report estimates the retail value of the average Food Distribution Program on Indian Reservations (FDPIR) food package delivered to FDPIR participants in fiscal year (FY) 2009. The estimated retail value of the average FDPIR food package as delivered in FY 2009 was $78.44 per month per FDPIR participant. The report’s retail price estimate probably understates the true retail value of the FDPIR food package because the cost of food from retailers located on or near Indian reservations is likely above national average retail food costs.
For the past forty years, United States Presidents have repeatedly called for a reduction in the ... more For the past forty years, United States Presidents have repeatedly called for a reduction in the country's dependence on fossil fuels in general and foreign oil specifically. Some officials advocate the electrification of the passenger vehicle fleet as a path to meeting this goal. The Obama administration has embraced a goal of having one million electric-powered vehicles on U.S. roads by 2015, while others proposed a medium-term goal where electric vehicles would consist of 20% of the passenger vehicle fleet by 2030 — approximately 30 million electric vehicles. The technology itself is not in question; many of the global automobile companies are planning to sell plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and/or battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2012. The key question is, will Americans buy them?
This paper finds that, at 2010 purchase and operating costs, a PHEV-40 is $5,377 more expensive than an internal combustion engine or ICE, while a BEV is $4,819 more expensive. In other words, the gasoline costs savings of electric cars over the cars’ lifetimes will not offset their higher purchase prices.
In the future, this cost balance may change. If one assumes that over the next 10 to 20 years battery costs will decrease while gasoline prices increase, BEVs will be significantly less expensive than conventional cars ($1,155 to $7,181 cheaper). Even when the authors use very high consumer discount rates, BEVs will be less expensive, than conventional vehicles although the cost difference decreases. PHEVs, however, will be more expensive than BEVs in almost all comparison scenarios, and only less expensive than conventional cars in a world with very low battery costs and high gasoline prices. BEVs are simpler to build and do not use liquid fuel, while PHEVs have more complicated drive trains and still have gasoline-powered engines.
The report is a summary of the discussions from a workshop on "Transportation Revenue Options" co... more The report is a summary of the discussions from a workshop on "Transportation Revenue Options" convened by the Belfer Center in May 2010. The workshop brought together 27 transportation experts for a two-day workshop to discuss three broad revenue-generating options: higher fuel taxes — perhaps supplemented by a carbon tax; fees collected based on vehicle miles traveled (VMT); and congestion fees on major roadways.
In this discussion paper by colleagues at Harvard University, the future of a large U.S. electric... more In this discussion paper by colleagues at Harvard University, the future of a large U.S. electric vehicle market is examined based on key questions. To answer these questions, battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in electric vehicles (PHEVs), and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) are compared with current and projected future lifecycle costs and various scenarios (change in gas/electricity cost, battery cost, customer discount rates, and vehicle efficiency). It is found that currently BEVs and PHEVs are $4000-$5000 more than ICEVs based on lifecycle cost, but in 10-20 years BEVs will be $1000-$7000 cheaper than ICEVs while PHEVs will possible remain more expensive than ICEVs unless battery cost drops significantly and gas prices rise. It is concluded that for the electric vehicle market to increase substantially in the next 10-20 years, gas prices will need to be $4.50 to $5.50 per gallon while battery technology and range increase. However, this can be accelerated with ...
Background: Infants and young children with high weight-for-length are at increased risk for obes... more Background: Infants and young children with high weight-for-length are at increased risk for obesity in later life. This study describes prevalence of high weight-for-length and examines changes during 2010-2018 among 11,366,755 infants and young children 3-23 months of age in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). Methods: Children's weights and lengths were measured. High weight-for-length was defined as ≥2 standard deviations above sex and age-specific median on World Health Organization growth charts. Adjusted prevalence differences (APDs) between years were calculated as 100 times marginal effects from logistic regression models. APD was statistically significant if 95% confidence interval did not include 0. Results: Adjusted prevalence of high weight-for-length decreased from 2010 to 2014, and leveled off through 2018 overall, in boys and girls, those 6-11 and 18-23 months of age, and non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, Hispanics, and Asians/Pacific Islanders. For 12-17 months old and American Indian/Alaska Native infants and young children, adjusted prevalence decreased from 2010 to 2014, and then increased slightly through 2018. Among 56 WIC state or territorial agencies, 33 had significant decreases between 2010 and 2018, whereas 8 had significant increases. Between 2014 and 2018, prevalence decreased significantly in 12 agencies and increased significantly in 23. Conclusions: The results indicate overall declines in prevalence of high weight-for-length from 2010 to 2018, with a prevalence stabilization since 2014. Continued surveillance is needed. Obesity prevention strategies in WIC and multiple settings are important for ensuring healthy child growth.
This report estimates the retail value of the average Food Distribution Program on Indian Reserva... more This report estimates the retail value of the average Food Distribution Program on Indian Reservations (FDPIR) food package delivered to FDPIR participants in fiscal year (FY) 2009. The estimated retail value of the average FDPIR food package as delivered in FY 2009 was $78.44 per month per FDPIR participant. The report’s retail price estimate probably understates the true retail value of the FDPIR food package because the cost of food from retailers located on or near Indian reservations is likely above national average retail food costs.
For the past forty years, United States Presidents have repeatedly called for a reduction in the ... more For the past forty years, United States Presidents have repeatedly called for a reduction in the country's dependence on fossil fuels in general and foreign oil specifically. Some officials advocate the electrification of the passenger vehicle fleet as a path to meeting this goal. The Obama administration has embraced a goal of having one million electric-powered vehicles on U.S. roads by 2015, while others proposed a medium-term goal where electric vehicles would consist of 20% of the passenger vehicle fleet by 2030 — approximately 30 million electric vehicles. The technology itself is not in question; many of the global automobile companies are planning to sell plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and/or battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2012. The key question is, will Americans buy them?
This paper finds that, at 2010 purchase and operating costs, a PHEV-40 is $5,377 more expensive than an internal combustion engine or ICE, while a BEV is $4,819 more expensive. In other words, the gasoline costs savings of electric cars over the cars’ lifetimes will not offset their higher purchase prices.
In the future, this cost balance may change. If one assumes that over the next 10 to 20 years battery costs will decrease while gasoline prices increase, BEVs will be significantly less expensive than conventional cars ($1,155 to $7,181 cheaper). Even when the authors use very high consumer discount rates, BEVs will be less expensive, than conventional vehicles although the cost difference decreases. PHEVs, however, will be more expensive than BEVs in almost all comparison scenarios, and only less expensive than conventional cars in a world with very low battery costs and high gasoline prices. BEVs are simpler to build and do not use liquid fuel, while PHEVs have more complicated drive trains and still have gasoline-powered engines.
The report is a summary of the discussions from a workshop on "Transportation Revenue Options" co... more The report is a summary of the discussions from a workshop on "Transportation Revenue Options" convened by the Belfer Center in May 2010. The workshop brought together 27 transportation experts for a two-day workshop to discuss three broad revenue-generating options: higher fuel taxes — perhaps supplemented by a carbon tax; fees collected based on vehicle miles traveled (VMT); and congestion fees on major roadways.
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Papers by Grant Lovellette
This paper finds that, at 2010 purchase and operating costs, a PHEV-40 is $5,377 more expensive than an internal combustion engine or ICE, while a BEV is $4,819 more expensive. In other words, the gasoline costs savings of electric cars over the cars’ lifetimes will not offset their higher purchase prices.
In the future, this cost balance may change. If one assumes that over the next 10 to 20 years battery costs will decrease while gasoline prices increase, BEVs will be significantly less expensive than conventional cars ($1,155 to $7,181 cheaper). Even when the authors use very high consumer discount rates, BEVs will be less expensive, than conventional vehicles although the cost difference decreases. PHEVs, however, will be more expensive than BEVs in almost all comparison scenarios, and only less expensive than conventional cars in a world with very low battery costs and high gasoline prices. BEVs are simpler to build and do not use liquid fuel, while PHEVs have more complicated drive trains and still have gasoline-powered engines.
This paper finds that, at 2010 purchase and operating costs, a PHEV-40 is $5,377 more expensive than an internal combustion engine or ICE, while a BEV is $4,819 more expensive. In other words, the gasoline costs savings of electric cars over the cars’ lifetimes will not offset their higher purchase prices.
In the future, this cost balance may change. If one assumes that over the next 10 to 20 years battery costs will decrease while gasoline prices increase, BEVs will be significantly less expensive than conventional cars ($1,155 to $7,181 cheaper). Even when the authors use very high consumer discount rates, BEVs will be less expensive, than conventional vehicles although the cost difference decreases. PHEVs, however, will be more expensive than BEVs in almost all comparison scenarios, and only less expensive than conventional cars in a world with very low battery costs and high gasoline prices. BEVs are simpler to build and do not use liquid fuel, while PHEVs have more complicated drive trains and still have gasoline-powered engines.