Международная миграционная статистика публикуется с большой задержкой, которая может достигать не... more Международная миграционная статистика публикуется с большой задержкой, которая может достигать нескольких лет. Эта проблема не позволяет исследователям осуществлять своевременный анализ миграционных потоков. В статье рассматривается метод прогнозирования международной миграции на основе поисковых запросов в сети Интернет на примере потоков из России в Германию в период 2011-2020 гг. Для анализа применяли показатели Росстата, статистического офиса Германии и ОЭСР. Предложенный в работе подход позволяет получать оценки миграционной динамики фактически без задержки во времени. Более того, в некоторых случаях возможно предсказывать миграционные события до фактического переезда, что может быть также использовано для прогнозирования других экономических индикаторов. Для построения необходимых оценок в работе были разработаны и применены методы, позволяющие увеличить частотность исходных наблюдений, а также получить краткосрочные ежемесячные прогнозы. Для получения множества поисковых запр...
The paper studies the reproductive intentions of the Russians who already have at least one child... more The paper studies the reproductive intentions of the Russians who already have at least one child before and during the quarantine restrictions (lockdowns) due to COVID-19. Binary choice logistic models and a set of machine learning models were evaluated on the data from the Person, Family, Society survey conducted in March—May 2020. Modeling of the respondents’ intentions to have more children in the short term (3 years) and the long term (more than 3 years) showed that external shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the strict quarantine regulations associated with it had an impact on fertility intentions, but only in the short term. These external shocks were less significant than such factors as age of the respondent; the number of children already born; availability of housing needed to expand the family; the maternity capital program availability, which includes the opportunity to improve housing conditions after the birth of children. As Russians with children showed the in...
Using panel data for the 2001-2008 period we estimate the gravity model of migration between Russ... more Using panel data for the 2001-2008 period we estimate the gravity model of migration between Russian regions. We show that though the migration flows have been quite stable, their determinants have changed substantially. Our special attention is drawn to the role of distance between the regions. Our special attention is drawn to the role of distance between regions as one of the main factors of migration. Dividing pairs of regions into nine groups according to the distance between regional centers, we estimate the model for each group separately. We find out that social and economic factors are affecting migration mainly between nearby regions. Yet the intensity of flows between distant (>500 km) areas is almost uncorrelated with indicators of social and economic development of regions.
The article aims - to find out with the help of decomposition of wage differences Oaxaca-Blinder,... more The article aims - to find out with the help of decomposition of wage differences Oaxaca-Blinder, discriminated whether foreign workers in the Russian labor market. An estimate of the discrimination is made on the basis of information on applications for quotas of Russian employers, provided by the Federal Service for Labour and Employment of the Russian Federation, and the HSE RLMS data for 2009-2013. The results indicate the presence of significant discrimination against foreign workers. During the reporting period, the average wages of Russian workers with a capacity of migrants exceeded the average salary of migrant workers in an average of 40%, with the largest contribution to the discriminatory gap making industry, which employs workers. The authors also put forward and substantiate the hypothesis that the lower wages of foreign workers do not reduce the wages of Russians employed in adjacent positions.
One of the most important characteristics of the labour market is labour mobility that allows ass... more One of the most important characteristics of the labour market is labour mobility that allows assessing the economic efficienc y o f labour . A comparativ e analysi s i s necessar y fo r determinin g th e degre e o f mobility . I n term s o f spatia l and sectoral characteristics, the paper assesses the degree and dynamics of mobility in the Russian labour market based on previously published studies, as well as the authors’ findings. To determine the degree of mobility, the research uses various approaches, applying both direct (mobility costs, transition matrices) and indirect indicators (structural unemployment, wage differentiation, unemployment rate, gross regional product (GRP)). The analysis uses the data of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey — Higher School of Economics (RLMS-HSE) and Federal State Statistic Service (Rosstat) for 2000– 2016. The obtained results demonstrate a relatively low intersectoral and interregional mobility in Russia compared to Organisation fo...
Международная миграционная статистика публикуется с большой задержкой, которая может достигать не... more Международная миграционная статистика публикуется с большой задержкой, которая может достигать нескольких лет. Эта проблема не позволяет исследователям осуществлять своевременный анализ миграционных потоков. В статье рассматривается метод прогнозирования международной миграции на основе поисковых запросов в сети Интернет на примере потоков из России в Германию в период 2011-2020 гг. Для анализа применяли показатели Росстата, статистического офиса Германии и ОЭСР. Предложенный в работе подход позволяет получать оценки миграционной динамики фактически без задержки во времени. Более того, в некоторых случаях возможно предсказывать миграционные события до фактического переезда, что может быть также использовано для прогнозирования других экономических индикаторов. Для построения необходимых оценок в работе были разработаны и применены методы, позволяющие увеличить частотность исходных наблюдений, а также получить краткосрочные ежемесячные прогнозы. Для получения множества поисковых запр...
The paper studies the reproductive intentions of the Russians who already have at least one child... more The paper studies the reproductive intentions of the Russians who already have at least one child before and during the quarantine restrictions (lockdowns) due to COVID-19. Binary choice logistic models and a set of machine learning models were evaluated on the data from the Person, Family, Society survey conducted in March—May 2020. Modeling of the respondents’ intentions to have more children in the short term (3 years) and the long term (more than 3 years) showed that external shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the strict quarantine regulations associated with it had an impact on fertility intentions, but only in the short term. These external shocks were less significant than such factors as age of the respondent; the number of children already born; availability of housing needed to expand the family; the maternity capital program availability, which includes the opportunity to improve housing conditions after the birth of children. As Russians with children showed the in...
Using panel data for the 2001-2008 period we estimate the gravity model of migration between Russ... more Using panel data for the 2001-2008 period we estimate the gravity model of migration between Russian regions. We show that though the migration flows have been quite stable, their determinants have changed substantially. Our special attention is drawn to the role of distance between the regions. Our special attention is drawn to the role of distance between regions as one of the main factors of migration. Dividing pairs of regions into nine groups according to the distance between regional centers, we estimate the model for each group separately. We find out that social and economic factors are affecting migration mainly between nearby regions. Yet the intensity of flows between distant (>500 km) areas is almost uncorrelated with indicators of social and economic development of regions.
The article aims - to find out with the help of decomposition of wage differences Oaxaca-Blinder,... more The article aims - to find out with the help of decomposition of wage differences Oaxaca-Blinder, discriminated whether foreign workers in the Russian labor market. An estimate of the discrimination is made on the basis of information on applications for quotas of Russian employers, provided by the Federal Service for Labour and Employment of the Russian Federation, and the HSE RLMS data for 2009-2013. The results indicate the presence of significant discrimination against foreign workers. During the reporting period, the average wages of Russian workers with a capacity of migrants exceeded the average salary of migrant workers in an average of 40%, with the largest contribution to the discriminatory gap making industry, which employs workers. The authors also put forward and substantiate the hypothesis that the lower wages of foreign workers do not reduce the wages of Russians employed in adjacent positions.
One of the most important characteristics of the labour market is labour mobility that allows ass... more One of the most important characteristics of the labour market is labour mobility that allows assessing the economic efficienc y o f labour . A comparativ e analysi s i s necessar y fo r determinin g th e degre e o f mobility . I n term s o f spatia l and sectoral characteristics, the paper assesses the degree and dynamics of mobility in the Russian labour market based on previously published studies, as well as the authors’ findings. To determine the degree of mobility, the research uses various approaches, applying both direct (mobility costs, transition matrices) and indirect indicators (structural unemployment, wage differentiation, unemployment rate, gross regional product (GRP)). The analysis uses the data of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey — Higher School of Economics (RLMS-HSE) and Federal State Statistic Service (Rosstat) for 2000– 2016. The obtained results demonstrate a relatively low intersectoral and interregional mobility in Russia compared to Organisation fo...
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Papers by Elena Vakulenko