This study examines the short-run and long-run effects of real exchange rate changes on India’s t... more This study examines the short-run and long-run effects of real exchange rate changes on India’s trade balance vis-a-vis four of her major trading partners, viz., the US, the UK, Japan and Germany within a cointegrating vector error correction model. Cointegration estimates suggest a long-run equilibrium relationship among trade balance, real exchange rate, domestic and foreign income in each country. This study also applied generalized impulse response functions to trace the effect of a one-time shock to the real exchange rate on trade balance. Although considerable variations exists in the results, overall, the generalized impulse response functions suggest that J-curve effect is visible in India’s bilateral trade with both Japan and Germany, but the Marshall-Lerner condition appears to hold in the context of India-Germany trade. On the contrary, we did not get J-curve in India’s trade with the US, and the UK, rather we got S-curve effect in India-UK trade.
Road traffic accident is one of the leading causes of death in the world and India. Road safety i... more Road traffic accident is one of the leading causes of death in the world and India. Road safety is a paramount challenge for India as it is required to comply with the target set by the United Nations to reduce road accidents by at least half by 2030. In the wake of this, the article addresses two pertinent questions: (a) what risk factors cause road traffic accidents? (b) How should policy measures be drawn with systematic and data-driven studies to prevent road accidents? The article uses both explorative and econometric analysis to analyse the road accident data of several states and union territories of India over the period 2014–2018. Using the panel approach, the study finds that over-speeding is the most important factor that causes road accidents. The other significant factors of road accidents are found to be overloading, wrong-side driving, commercial place and faulty road design. Among other findings, drunken driving is found to be a major driver of rural accidents in Ind...
Page 1. An econometric estimation of the aggregate import demand function for Bangladesh: some fu... more Page 1. An econometric estimation of the aggregate import demand function for Bangladesh: some further results ANISUL M. ISLAM* and M. KABIR HASSANz College of Business, University of Houston-Downtown, One Main ...
South Asian countries have seen remarkable economic growth and development in the past few decade... more South Asian countries have seen remarkable economic growth and development in the past few decades. This has been driven by financial sector reforms, industrialization, and expansion of foreign trade. The present study is designed to identify the long- and short-run relationships among environmental degradation, economic growth, energy consumption, and trade openness in the South Asian region. Our research contributes to the literature by employing a new approach (the NARDL method). We examine annual data for four South Asian countries between 1971 and 2014. We found that there was a long-run equilibrium relationship between environmental degradation, economic growth, energy consumption, and trade openness. The results confirmed the inverted U-shaped EKC hypothesis only for India and Pakistan. However, the long-term coefficients related to energy consumption were statistically significant only in Pakistan. The most interesting finding was that only in Sri Lanka did the long-run coef...
This study examines the determinants of blue economy activities, namely tourism and fisheries, in... more This study examines the determinants of blue economy activities, namely tourism and fisheries, in 21 Asia and Pacific island countries during the period 1996 to 2016. Using a panel data model, it was found that the size of the blue economy positively depends on the gross fixed capital formation and access to electricity in Asia and Pacific island countries. We find that the size of the blue economy has responded positively to sustainable ocean management policies. Hence, our findings support the need for, and effectiveness of, the implementation of sustainable ocean governance policies in the Asia and Pacific island region, which can further strengthen the growth of these island countries.
Applied Econometrics and International Development, 2016
This paper examines the supply response of milk production in BRIC countries using annual data fo... more This paper examines the supply response of milk production in BRIC countries using annual data for the period 1992 to 2010. The results derived from panel data analysis support a strong positive supply response of milk prices to the number of milking animals and total milk yield. The study also finds a strong association between price of substitutes between chicken meat and milk. The non-price factors like membership in WTO and exports have a positive impact on supply response in terms of number of milking animals. The study unfolds that export of milk have a favorable impact on the supply response both in terms of number of milking animals and milk yield. The analysis suggests that milk supply in BRIC countries is responsive to the price factors and hence price support and subsidies programmes for dairy farmers in BRIC need to more visible and effective. Such results clearly make a case for introduction of Minimum Support Price (MSP) for milk famers in BRIC countries. Milk producer...
THE JOURNAL OF APPLIED BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS, 2017
This paper investigates the determinants of foreign exchange reserves in India by using Auto Regr... more This paper investigates the determinants of foreign exchange reserves in India by using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model during 2000:Q1 to 2014: Q4 by using the variables such as foreign exchange reserve, nominal exchange rate, inflation, current account deficit, trade openness and short term debt/GDP. We found that in the long run, variables such as inflation and short term external debt/GDP affects the foreign exchange reserves. One percent increase in inflation reduces the foreign exchange reserves by 0.12% where as one percent increase in short term external debt/GDP increases the foreign exchange reserves by 0.46%. On the other hand, in the short run, exchange rate affects positively foreign exchange reserves of India.
This study examines the short-run and long-run effects of real exchange rate changes on India’s t... more This study examines the short-run and long-run effects of real exchange rate changes on India’s trade balance vis-a-vis four of her major trading partners, viz., the US, the UK, Japan and Germany within a cointegrating vector error correction model. Cointegration estimates suggest a long-run equilibrium relationship among trade balance, real exchange rate, domestic and foreign income in each country. This study also applied generalized impulse response functions to trace the effect of a one-time shock to the real exchange rate on trade balance. Although considerable variations exists in the results, overall, the generalized impulse response functions suggest that J-curve effect is visible in India’s bilateral trade with both Japan and Germany, but the Marshall-Lerner condition appears to hold in the context of India-Germany trade. On the contrary, we did not get J-curve in India’s trade with the US, and the UK, rather we got S-curve effect in India-UK trade.
Road traffic accident is one of the leading causes of death in the world and India. Road safety i... more Road traffic accident is one of the leading causes of death in the world and India. Road safety is a paramount challenge for India as it is required to comply with the target set by the United Nations to reduce road accidents by at least half by 2030. In the wake of this, the article addresses two pertinent questions: (a) what risk factors cause road traffic accidents? (b) How should policy measures be drawn with systematic and data-driven studies to prevent road accidents? The article uses both explorative and econometric analysis to analyse the road accident data of several states and union territories of India over the period 2014–2018. Using the panel approach, the study finds that over-speeding is the most important factor that causes road accidents. The other significant factors of road accidents are found to be overloading, wrong-side driving, commercial place and faulty road design. Among other findings, drunken driving is found to be a major driver of rural accidents in Ind...
Page 1. An econometric estimation of the aggregate import demand function for Bangladesh: some fu... more Page 1. An econometric estimation of the aggregate import demand function for Bangladesh: some further results ANISUL M. ISLAM* and M. KABIR HASSANz College of Business, University of Houston-Downtown, One Main ...
South Asian countries have seen remarkable economic growth and development in the past few decade... more South Asian countries have seen remarkable economic growth and development in the past few decades. This has been driven by financial sector reforms, industrialization, and expansion of foreign trade. The present study is designed to identify the long- and short-run relationships among environmental degradation, economic growth, energy consumption, and trade openness in the South Asian region. Our research contributes to the literature by employing a new approach (the NARDL method). We examine annual data for four South Asian countries between 1971 and 2014. We found that there was a long-run equilibrium relationship between environmental degradation, economic growth, energy consumption, and trade openness. The results confirmed the inverted U-shaped EKC hypothesis only for India and Pakistan. However, the long-term coefficients related to energy consumption were statistically significant only in Pakistan. The most interesting finding was that only in Sri Lanka did the long-run coef...
This study examines the determinants of blue economy activities, namely tourism and fisheries, in... more This study examines the determinants of blue economy activities, namely tourism and fisheries, in 21 Asia and Pacific island countries during the period 1996 to 2016. Using a panel data model, it was found that the size of the blue economy positively depends on the gross fixed capital formation and access to electricity in Asia and Pacific island countries. We find that the size of the blue economy has responded positively to sustainable ocean management policies. Hence, our findings support the need for, and effectiveness of, the implementation of sustainable ocean governance policies in the Asia and Pacific island region, which can further strengthen the growth of these island countries.
Applied Econometrics and International Development, 2016
This paper examines the supply response of milk production in BRIC countries using annual data fo... more This paper examines the supply response of milk production in BRIC countries using annual data for the period 1992 to 2010. The results derived from panel data analysis support a strong positive supply response of milk prices to the number of milking animals and total milk yield. The study also finds a strong association between price of substitutes between chicken meat and milk. The non-price factors like membership in WTO and exports have a positive impact on supply response in terms of number of milking animals. The study unfolds that export of milk have a favorable impact on the supply response both in terms of number of milking animals and milk yield. The analysis suggests that milk supply in BRIC countries is responsive to the price factors and hence price support and subsidies programmes for dairy farmers in BRIC need to more visible and effective. Such results clearly make a case for introduction of Minimum Support Price (MSP) for milk famers in BRIC countries. Milk producer...
THE JOURNAL OF APPLIED BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS, 2017
This paper investigates the determinants of foreign exchange reserves in India by using Auto Regr... more This paper investigates the determinants of foreign exchange reserves in India by using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model during 2000:Q1 to 2014: Q4 by using the variables such as foreign exchange reserve, nominal exchange rate, inflation, current account deficit, trade openness and short term debt/GDP. We found that in the long run, variables such as inflation and short term external debt/GDP affects the foreign exchange reserves. One percent increase in inflation reduces the foreign exchange reserves by 0.12% where as one percent increase in short term external debt/GDP increases the foreign exchange reserves by 0.46%. On the other hand, in the short run, exchange rate affects positively foreign exchange reserves of India.
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