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A simple and efficient simulation smoother for state space time series analysis

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Florian Heiss, 2008. "Sequential numerical integration in nonlinear state space models for microeconometric panel data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 373-389.
  2. Helske, Jouni, 2017. "KFAS: Exponential Family State Space Models in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 78(i10).
  3. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2008. "The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-069/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  4. Marta Bañbura & Danilo Leiva-León & Jan-Oliver Menz, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation Forecasts?," Working Papers 2138, Banco de España.
  5. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre & Monteiro, Andre, 2008. "The multi-state latent factor intensity model for credit rating transitions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 399-424, January.
  6. Koop, Gary & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Strachan, Rodney W., 2011. "Bayesian inference in a time varying cointegration model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 165(2), pages 210-220.
  7. Michael D Bauer & Carolin E Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2024. "Perceptions About Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(4), pages 2227-2278.
  8. Jaeho Kim & Sora Chon, 2020. "Why are Bayesian trend-cycle decompositions of US real GDP so different?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1339-1354, March.
  9. Wang, Renhe & Wang, Tong & Qian, Zhiyong & Hu, Shulan, 2023. "A Bayesian estimation approach of random switching exponential smoothing with application to credit forecast," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
  10. Max Bruche, 2006. "Estimating Structural Models of Corporate Bond Prices," Working Papers wp2006_0610, CEMFI.
  11. Antonello D’Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2016. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: A Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 569-594, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  12. Dimitris Korobilis, 2013. "Assessing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Using Time-varying Parameter Dynamic Factor Models-super-," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(2), pages 157-179, April.
  13. Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2016. "Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1312-1332, November.
  14. Takahashi, Makoto & Watanabe, Toshiaki & Omori, Yasuhiro, 2016. "Volatility and quantile forecasts by realized stochastic volatility models with generalized hyperbolic distribution," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 437-457.
  15. Yu-Fan Huang & Sui Luo, 2018. "Potential output and inflation dynamics after the Great Recession," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 495-517, September.
  16. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.
  17. Mengheng Li & Siem Jan Koopman, 2021. "Unobserved components with stochastic volatility: Simulation‐based estimation and signal extraction," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 614-627, August.
  18. Eyal Argov & Alon Binyamini & Eliezer Borenstein & Irit Rozenshtrom, 2015. "Model-Based Ex Post Evaluation of Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 219-254, December.
  19. Shang, Yuhuang & Liu, Lulu, 2017. "An extension of stochastic volatility model with mixed frequency information," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 144-148.
  20. Tommaso Proietti & Marco Riani, 2009. "Transformations and seasonal adjustment," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 47-69, January.
  21. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(4), pages 837-862, October.
  22. Drew D. Creal & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2020. "Bond risk premia in consumption‐based models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(4), pages 1461-1484, November.
  23. Yuta Kurose & Yasuhiro Omori, "undated". "Multiple-lock Dynamic Equicorrelations with Realized Measures, Leverage and Endogeneity," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1075, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  24. Charles Bos & Neil Shephard, 2006. "Inference for Adaptive Time Series Models: Stochastic Volatility and Conditionally Gaussian State Space Form," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2-3), pages 219-244.
  25. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "Interest Rates under Falling Stars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1316-1354, May.
  26. Takahashi, Makoto & Omori, Yasuhiro & Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2009. "Estimating stochastic volatility models using daily returns and realized volatility simultaneously," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2404-2426, April.
  27. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  28. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2008. "The Time-Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 604-641, June.
  29. Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2022. "Constructing Fan Charts from the Ragged Edge of SPF Forecasts," Working Papers 22-36, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  30. Ascari, Guido & Fosso, Luca, 2024. "The international dimension of trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
  31. Hasenzagl, Thomas & Pellegrino, Filippo & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2022. "Monitoring the Economy in Real Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 17111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  32. Tommaso Proietti & Alessandra Luati, 2013. "Maximum likelihood estimation of time series models: the Kalman filter and beyond," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 15, pages 334-362, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  33. Xianguo HUANG & Roberto LEON-GONZALEZ & Somrasri YUPHO, 2013. "Financial Integration from a Time-Varying Cointegration Perspective," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(12), pages 1473-1487.
  34. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman, 2005. "On Importance Sampling for State Space Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-117/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  35. Antonio Gargano & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2019. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(2), pages 508-540, February.
  36. Matteo Barigozzi & Claudio Lissona & Matteo Luciani, 2024. "Measuring the Euro Area Output Gap," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-099, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  37. Omori, Yasuhiro & Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2008. "Block sampler and posterior mode estimation for asymmetric stochastic volatility models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 2892-2910, February.
  38. Joshua C.C. Chan & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2012. "Time Varying Dimension Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 358-367, January.
  39. Guido Ascari & Luca Fosso, 2021. "The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve," Discussion Papers 2113, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  40. Koop, Gary & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Strachan, Rodney W., 2009. "On the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 997-1017, April.
  41. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2010. "Extracting a robust US business cycle using a time-varying multivariate model-based bandpass filter," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 695-719.
  42. Kohns, David & Bhattacharjee, Arnab, 2023. "Nowcasting growth using Google Trends data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1384-1412.
  43. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2020. "Estimates of r* Consistent with a Supply-Side Structure and a Monetary Policy Rule for the U.S. Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-085, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  44. Nakajima, Jouchi & Omori, Yasuhiro, 2009. "Leverage, heavy-tails and correlated jumps in stochastic volatility models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2335-2353, April.
  45. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 107-142, November.
  46. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin W & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2020. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224546, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  47. Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2008. "On the Evolution of Monetary Policy," Working Paper series 24_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  48. Nakajima, Jouchi & Kasuya, Munehisa & Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2011. "Bayesian analysis of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model for the Japanese economy and monetary policy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 225-245, September.
  49. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2008. "A Non-Gaussian Panel Time Series Model for Estimating and Decomposing Default Risk," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 510-525.
  50. Tommaso Proietti & Stefano Grassi, 2015. "Stochastic trends and seasonality in economic time series: new evidence from Bayesian stochastic model specification search," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 983-1011, May.
  51. Siem Jan Koopman & Andre Lucas & Bernd Schwaab, 2010. "Macro, Industry and Frailty Effects in Defaults: The 2008 Credit Crisis in Perspective," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-004/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 24 Aug 2010.
  52. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2020. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 17-33, March.
  53. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
  54. Yoo, Do-il, 2015. "Developing Forecasting Model of Vegetable Price based on Climate Big Data," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 206052, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  55. McCausland, William J. & Miller, Shirley & Pelletier, Denis, 2011. "Simulation smoothing for state-space models: A computational efficiency analysis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 199-212, January.
  56. Michel Beine & Charles S. Bos & Sébastien Laurent, 2007. "The Impact of Central Bank FX Interventions on Currency Components," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 154-183.
  57. Drew D. Creal & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2017. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty And Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1317-1354, November.
  58. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
  59. Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2020. "Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2020/01, OECD Publishing.
  60. Taisuke Nakata & Christopher Tonetti, 2015. "Small sample properties of Bayesian estimators of labor income processes," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 18, pages 121-148, May.
  61. repec:jss:jstsof:41:i04 is not listed on IDEAS
  62. Laura E. Jackson & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Michael T. Owyang, 2016. "Specification and Estimation of Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models: A Monte Carlo Analysis with an Application to Global House Price Comovement," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 361-400, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  63. Ishihara, Tsunehiro & Omori, Yasuhiro, 2012. "Efficient Bayesian estimation of a multivariate stochastic volatility model with cross leverage and heavy-tailed errors," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3674-3689.
  64. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2017. "Forecasting inflation: Phillips curve effects on services price measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 442-457.
  65. Shirota, Shinichiro & Omori, Yasuhiro & F. Lopes, Hedibert. & Piao, Haixiang, 2017. "Cholesky realized stochastic volatility model," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 34-59.
  66. Ramis Khabibullin & Sergei Seleznev, 2022. "Fast Estimation of Bayesian State Space Models Using Amortized Simulation-Based Inference," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps104, Bank of Russia.
  67. Fabian Krüger & Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2017. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts With External Nowcasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 470-485, July.
  68. Nakajima Jouchi, 2011. "Monetary Policy Transmission under Zero Interest Rates: An Extended Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression Approach," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, October.
  69. Siem Jan Koopman & Rutger Lit & Thuy Minh Nguyen, 2012. "Fast Efficient Importance Sampling by State Space Methods," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-008/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 16 Oct 2014.
  70. Jarociński, Marek, 2015. "A note on implementing the Durbin and Koopman simulation smoother," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 1-3.
  71. repec:ehl:lserod:56406 is not listed on IDEAS
  72. Rodríguez, Alejandro & Ruiz, Esther, 2012. "Bootstrap prediction mean squared errors of unobserved states based on the Kalman filter with estimated parameters," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 62-74, January.
  73. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  74. Falk Bräuning & Siem Jan Koopman, 2016. "The Dynamic Factor Network Model with an Application to Global Credit-Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-105/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  75. Gary M. Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Forecasting and Estimating Multiple Change-point Models with an Unknown Number of Change-points," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/31, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
  76. Kastner, Gregor & Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia, 2014. "Ancillarity-sufficiency interweaving strategy (ASIS) for boosting MCMC estimation of stochastic volatility models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 408-423.
  77. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & Bernd Schwaab, 2012. "Dynamic Factor Models With Macro, Frailty, and Industry Effects for U.S. Default Counts: The Credit Crisis of 2008," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 521-532, May.
  78. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2022. "A reconsideration of money growth rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  79. Elmar Mertens, 2016. "Measuring the Level and Uncertainty of Trend Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 950-967, December.
  80. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 686-704, October.
  81. Gehrke, Britta & Weber, Enzo, 2018. "Identifying asymmetric effects of labor market reforms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 18-40.
  82. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert, 2008. "Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multiple Change-Point and Mixture Innovation Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 66-77, January.
  83. Omori, Yasuhiro & Chib, Siddhartha & Shephard, Neil & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2007. "Stochastic volatility with leverage: Fast and efficient likelihood inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 425-449, October.
  84. Martina Hengge & Seton Leonard, 2017. "Factor Models for Non-Stationary Series: Estimates of Monthly U.S. GDP," IHEID Working Papers 13-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  85. Chan, Joshua & Strachan, Rodney, 2012. "Estimation in Non-Linear Non-Gaussian State Space Models with Precision-Based Methods," MPRA Paper 39360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  86. Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017. "Have Standard VARS Remained Stable Since the Crisis?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 931-951, August.
  87. Ewing, Bradley T. & Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2018. "The dynamic effects of oil supply shocks on the US stock market returns of upstream oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 505-516.
  88. repec:ehu:biltok:5663 is not listed on IDEAS
  89. repec:jss:jstsof:41:i13 is not listed on IDEAS
  90. Elmar Mertens & James M. Nason, 2020. "Inflation and professional forecast dynamics: An evaluation of stickiness, persistence, and volatility," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(4), pages 1485-1520, November.
  91. Yoshihiro Hashiguchi, 2010. "Bayesian estimation of spatial externalities using regional production function: the case of China and Japan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 751-764.
  92. Naoki Awaya & Yasuhiro Omori, 2017. "Particle rolling MCMC with Double Block Sampling: Conditional SMC Update Approach," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1066, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  93. M. Hakan Eratalay & Evgenii V. Vladimirov, 2020. "Mapping the stocks in MICEX: Who is central in the Moscow Stock Exchange?," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(4), pages 581-620, October.
  94. Nimark, Kristoffer P., 2015. "A low dimensional Kalman filter for systems with lagged states in the measurement equation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 10-13.
  95. Trojan, Sebastian, 2014. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility with Dynamic Cross Leverage," Economics Working Paper Series 1424, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
  96. Monika Junicke & Jakub Mateju & Haroon Mumtaz & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2023. "Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Wage and Hours Worked: Evidence from the Czech Labor Market," Working Papers 2023/4, Czech National Bank.
  97. Angelini, Elena & Lalik, Magdalena & Lenza, Michele & Paredes, Joan, 2019. "Mind the gap: A multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1658-1668.
  98. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2024. "Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 132-149.
  99. Berument, Hakan & Yalcin, Yeliz & Yildirim, Julide, 2009. "The effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation: Stochastic volatility in mean model within a dynamic framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1201-1207, November.
  100. Koopman, Siem Jan & Kräussl, Roman & Lucas, André & Monteiro, André B., 2009. "Credit cycles and macro fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 42-54, January.
  101. Aloy Marcel & Dufrénot Gilles & Tong Charles Lai & Peguin-Feissolle Anne, 2013. "A smooth transition long-memory model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 281-296, May.
  102. Yunyun Wang & Tatsushi Oka & Dan Zhu, 2024. "Inflation Target at Risk: A Time-varying Parameter Distributional Regression," Papers 2403.12456, arXiv.org.
  103. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2017. "GDP Trend-cycle Decompositions Using State-level Data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-051, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  104. William W. Chow & Michael K. Fung, 2021. "The effects of macroprudential policy on Hong Kong’s housing market: a multivariate ordered probit-augmented vector autoregressive approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 633-660, February.
  105. Joshua C C Chan & Cody Y L Hsiao, 2013. "Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models with Heavy Tails and Serial Dependence," CAMA Working Papers 2013-74, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  106. Laura Liu & Mikkel Plagborg-M{o}ller, 2021. "Full-Information Estimation of Heterogeneous Agent Models Using Macro and Micro Data," Papers 2101.04771, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
  107. Grassi, S. & Proietti, T., 2014. "Characterising economic trends by Bayesian stochastic model specification search," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 359-374.
  108. Jouchi Nakajima & Yasuhiro Omori, 2010. "Stochastic Volatility Model with Leverage and Asymmetrically Heavy-Tailed Error Using GH Skew Student's t-Distribution Models," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-738, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  109. Rob Luginbuhl, 2020. "Estimation of the Financial Cycle with a Rank-Reduced Multivariate State-Space Model," CPB Discussion Paper 409, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  110. Yasuhiro Omori & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2003. "Block Sampler and Posterior Mode Estimation for a Nonlinear and Non-Gaussian State-Space Model with Correlated Errors," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-221, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  111. Martín Almuzara & Dante Amengual & Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2024. "GDP Solera: The Ideal Vintage Mix," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 984-997, July.
  112. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan & Valkanov, Rossen, 2014. "Forecasting stock returns under economic constraints," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 517-553.
  113. Takahashi, Makoto & Watanabe, Toshiaki & Omori, Yasuhiro, 2021. "Forecasting Daily Volatility of Stock Price Index Using Daily Returns and Realized Volatility," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-104, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
  114. Travis J. Berge, 2023. "Time-Varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap Estimate," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1191-1206, September.
  115. Li, Mengheng & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lit, Rutger & Petrova, Desislava, 2020. "Long-term forecasting of El Niño events via dynamic factor simulations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 46-66.
  116. Siddhartha Chib & Yasuhiro Omori & Manabu Asai, 2007. "Multivariate stochastic volatility (Revised in May 2007, Handbook of Financial Time Series (Published in "Handbook of Financial Time Series" (eds T.G. Andersen, R.A. Davis, Jens-Peter Kreiss," CARF F-Series CARF-F-094, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  117. Kurose, Yuta & Omori, Yasuhiro, 2020. "Multiple-block dynamic equicorrelations with realized measures, leverage and endogeneity," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 46-68.
  118. Vasco Curdia & Fernanda Nechio, 2024. "Would the Euro Area Benefit from Greater Labor Mobility?," Working Paper Series 2024-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  119. Stefan Laseen & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2016. "Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?," IMF Working Papers 2016/126, International Monetary Fund.
  120. Lyu, Xiaoyi & Hu, Hao, 2024. "The dynamic impact of monetary policy on stock market liquidity," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 388-405.
  121. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & Bernd Schwaab, 2008. "Forecasting Cross-Sections of Frailty-Correlated Default," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-029/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  122. Tsunehiro Ishihara & Yasuhiro Omori, 2017. "Portfolio optimization using dynamic factor and stochastic volatility: evidence on Fat-tailed errors and leverage," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 68(1), pages 63-94, March.
  123. István Barra & Lennart Hoogerheide & Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas, 2017. "Joint Bayesian Analysis of Parameters and States in Nonlinear non‐Gaussian State Space Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 1003-1026, August.
  124. Tsionas, Mike G., 2022. "Random and Markov switching exponential smoothing models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
  125. Fruhwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Fruhwirth, Rudolf, 2007. "Auxiliary mixture sampling with applications to logistic models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3509-3528, April.
  126. González-Astudillo, Manuel, 2019. "An output gap measure for the euro area: Exploiting country-level and cross-sectional data heterogeneity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
  127. Niesert, Robin F. & Oorschot, Jochem A. & Veldhuisen, Christian P. & Brons, Kester & Lange, Rutger-Jan, 2020. "Can Google search data help predict macroeconomic series?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1163-1172.
  128. Yasuhiro Omori & Siddhartha Chib & Neil Shephard & Jouchi Nakajima, 2004. "Stochastic volatility with leverage: fast likelihood inference," Economics Papers 2004-W19, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  129. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2024. "Addressing COVID-19 Outliers in BVARs with Stochastic Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(5), pages 1403-1417, September.
  130. Rodríguez, Aldo, 2020. "Estimación Bayesiana de un Modelo de Economía Abierta con Sector Bancario," Dynare Working Papers 52, CEPREMAP.
  131. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & Marcel Scharth, 2016. "Predicting Time-Varying Parameters with Parameter-Driven and Observation-Driven Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 97-110, March.
  132. Nakajima, Jouchi & Omori, Yasuhiro, 2012. "Stochastic volatility model with leverage and asymmetrically heavy-tailed error using GH skew Student’s t-distribution," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3690-3704.
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