We document how manipulation of a targeting system for social welfare programs evolves over time.... more We document how manipulation of a targeting system for social welfare programs evolves over time. First, there was strategic behavior of some local politicians in the timing of the household interviews around local elections. Then, there was corrupt behavior with the sudden emergence of a sharp discontinuity in the score density, exactly at the eligibility threshold, which coincided with the release of the score algorithm to local officials. The discontinuity at the threshold is larger where mayoral elections are more competitive. While cultural forces are surely relevant for corruption, our results also highlight the importance of information and incentives. (JEL D72, I32, I38, O15, O17).
We document how manipulation of a targeting system for social welfare programs evolves over time.... more We document how manipulation of a targeting system for social welfare programs evolves over time. First, there was strategic behavior of some local politicians in the timing of the household interviews around local elections. Then, there was corrupt behavior with the sudden emergence of a sharp discontinuity in the score density, exactly at the eligibility threshold, which coincided with the release of the score algorithm to local officials. The discontinuity at the threshold is larger where mayoral elections are more competitive. While cultural forces are surely relevant for corruption, our results also highlight the importance of information and incentives. (JEL D72, I32, I38, O15, O17).
We estimate the effect of participation in a large antipoverty program in Colombia on turnout and... more We estimate the effect of participation in a large antipoverty program in Colombia on turnout and electoral choice. Using variation in the proportion of beneficiaries across voting booths within a polling station and eligibility as an instrument for take-up, we find that in the 2010 presidential elections, enrolled women were more likely to vote and support the incumbent party candidate. Results for men are smaller and not always significant. Voters respond to targeted transfers, and women, as the direct recipients of the transfers, respond more strongly. Potential mechanisms explaining the results are civic engagement and gratitude toward the incumbent party.
provide evidence that they generate a disproportionate amount of stress and fear, suggesting that... more provide evidence that they generate a disproportionate amount of stress and fear, suggesting that the indirect effects may be far more reaching than the direct ones. The international organization, Medecins Sans Frontiere 2006, claims that the physiological effect of the conflict is Colombian’s worst public health problem. This paper is the first attempt to measure the effect of prenatal psychological stress due to terrorism on child birth outcomes. The medical literature (Pathik D. Wadhwa et al. 1993, among others) indicates that prenatal stress increases levels of Corticotrophin-Releasing Hormone (CRH), which regulates the duration of pregnancy and fetal maturation, increasing the risk of adverse birth outcomes. There is also evidence that birth outcomes are most sensitive to maternal stress in early stages of pregnancy. This study links the intensity of random terrorist activities during a woman’s first trimester of pregnancy with significant negative impacts on child birth weigh...
English Abstract: This paper estimates the causal impact that changes in household´s income have ... more English Abstract: This paper estimates the causal impact that changes in household´s income have on Domestic Violence (DV) rates in Colombia. Using the arguably exogenous variation in time and space of the payments of a Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) program and a three-year-long monthly municipal balanced panel data set, we find that DV rates decrease by six percent in the months when the transfers are received. However, this effect is only transitory and varies according to households’ expectations on when the transfers are received. Negative shocks that take place when families do not receive the transfer they were expecting, intensify economic scarcity, and DV rates in those months follow suit. On the contrary, positive shocks that occur when families receive an unexpected transfer only have a marginal reduction on DV. The channel that appears to be explaining our results is a budget constraint alleviation mechanism that reduces scarcity as the timing of the receipt of the transfer consistently reduces DV and increases consumption in the month of payment. Furthermore, there is no clear evidence of alternative channels that could explain the results such as changes in female empowerment, marital status, labor participation, or social networks of the beneficiary women. Spanish Abstract: Este trabajo estima el impacto causal que tienen los cambios en ingresos del hogar sobre la tasa de Violencia Domestica (VD) municipal para Colombia. Para ello se utiliza la variacion exogena, dada en el tiempo y en el espacio, de los pagos del programa de Transferencia Condicionadas, encontrando asi, que la tasa de VD se reduce en un seis porciento en los meses de pago de la transferencia. Choques negativos de ingreso, que occuren cuando la familia no recibe una transferencia que esperaba, intensifica la escases economica y se traduce en una mayor tasa de VD. Por el contratio, cuando ocurren choques positivos de ingreso, por recibir una transferencia inesperada, solo se evidencia una reduccion marginal en la VD. El canal por el cual se reduce la VD parece estar explicado por la reduccion en la escasez economica. La transferencia relaja la restriccion presupuestal permitiendo un incremento en consumo que coincide exactamente con el mes de pago. Adicionalmente, no hay evidencia clara que indique que otros canales alternos como el empoderamiento de la mujer, el estado civil, la participacion laboral, o redes sociales puedan estar cambiando.
Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of IZA. Research published i... more Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of IZA. Research published in this series may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions. The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn is a local and virtual international research center and a place of communication between science, politics and business. IZA is an independent nonprofit organization supported by Deutsche Post Foundation. The center is associated with the University of Bonn and offers a stimulating research environment through its international network, workshops and conferences, data service, project support, research visits and doctoral program. IZA engages in (i) original and internationally competitive research in all fields of labor economics, (ii) development of policy concepts, and (iii) dissemination of research results and concepts to the interested public. IZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to enco...
En este trabajo estudiamos los efectos indirectos del mayor programa de transferencias condiciona... more En este trabajo estudiamos los efectos indirectos del mayor programa de transferencias condicionadas (PTC) de Colombia, Familias en Accion, sobre los niveles de criminalidad en el area urbana de la ciudad de Bogota. Para realizar este estudio combinamos las siguientes dos fuentes de informacion: el Sistema de Informacion de beneficiarios de Familias en Accion (SIFA) y los reportes administrativos de criminalidad de la Policia Nacional. En el estudio evaluamos dos posibles canales por los cuales Familias en Accion puede afectar los niveles de criminalidad. Por un lado, el efecto ingreso, para el cual explotamos la variacion existente en las fechas de pago del programa. Nuestros resultados indican que a traves de este efecto el programa reduce el crimen a la propiedad.
Este trabajo cuantifica el retorno de la inversion en cuidado preventivo en terminos de la reducc... more Este trabajo cuantifica el retorno de la inversion en cuidado preventivo en terminos de la reduccion del numero de hospitalizaciones o urgencia para ninos entre 0 y 5 anos en laciudad de Bogota. Para ello se utilizo un panel de individuos construidos a partir de los Registros de visitas reportados por las IPS (RIPS) desde 2003 hasta 2007, con el que se hace un seguimiento de los servicios de salud demandados por cada individuo a lo largo de este periodo. Adicionalmente este trabajo explota como variacion exogena la modificacion que se dio en la legislacion en 2004, donde se eliminan las cuotas moderadoras para los servicios preventivos requeridos por los menores de un ano de edad. De esta forma se encuentra que un incremento en un 1% de las consultas, reducen en 0.56% el numero de hospitalizaciones para los ninos que son beneficiarios por la legislacion, mientras que no se encuentra efecto de las consultas sobre el numero de urgencias.
This paper uses two unique panel data sets to study the causal effect that armed conflict has ove... more This paper uses two unique panel data sets to study the causal effect that armed conflict has over entrepreneurial activity in Colombia. Using a fixed effect estimation methodology at the plant level and controlling for the possible endogeneity of armed conflict through the use of instrumental variables, we find that a one standard deviation in the number of guerrilla and paramilitary attacks in a municipality increases the probability of firm exit in 8.1 percentage points. This effect is stronger for smaller plants and has a differential impact with respect to firms’ age.
We document how manipulation of a targeting system for social welfare programs evolves over time.... more We document how manipulation of a targeting system for social welfare programs evolves over time. First, there was strategic behavior of some local politicians in the timing of the household interviews around local elections. Then, there was corrupt behavior with the sudden emergence of a sharp discontinuity in the score density, exactly at the eligibility threshold, which coincided with the release of the score algorithm to local officials. The discontinuity at the threshold is larger where mayoral elections are more competitive. While cultural forces are surely relevant for corruption, our results also highlight the importance of information and incentives. (JEL D72, I32, I38, O15, O17).
We document how manipulation of a targeting system for social welfare programs evolves over time.... more We document how manipulation of a targeting system for social welfare programs evolves over time. First, there was strategic behavior of some local politicians in the timing of the household interviews around local elections. Then, there was corrupt behavior with the sudden emergence of a sharp discontinuity in the score density, exactly at the eligibility threshold, which coincided with the release of the score algorithm to local officials. The discontinuity at the threshold is larger where mayoral elections are more competitive. While cultural forces are surely relevant for corruption, our results also highlight the importance of information and incentives. (JEL D72, I32, I38, O15, O17).
We estimate the effect of participation in a large antipoverty program in Colombia on turnout and... more We estimate the effect of participation in a large antipoverty program in Colombia on turnout and electoral choice. Using variation in the proportion of beneficiaries across voting booths within a polling station and eligibility as an instrument for take-up, we find that in the 2010 presidential elections, enrolled women were more likely to vote and support the incumbent party candidate. Results for men are smaller and not always significant. Voters respond to targeted transfers, and women, as the direct recipients of the transfers, respond more strongly. Potential mechanisms explaining the results are civic engagement and gratitude toward the incumbent party.
provide evidence that they generate a disproportionate amount of stress and fear, suggesting that... more provide evidence that they generate a disproportionate amount of stress and fear, suggesting that the indirect effects may be far more reaching than the direct ones. The international organization, Medecins Sans Frontiere 2006, claims that the physiological effect of the conflict is Colombian’s worst public health problem. This paper is the first attempt to measure the effect of prenatal psychological stress due to terrorism on child birth outcomes. The medical literature (Pathik D. Wadhwa et al. 1993, among others) indicates that prenatal stress increases levels of Corticotrophin-Releasing Hormone (CRH), which regulates the duration of pregnancy and fetal maturation, increasing the risk of adverse birth outcomes. There is also evidence that birth outcomes are most sensitive to maternal stress in early stages of pregnancy. This study links the intensity of random terrorist activities during a woman’s first trimester of pregnancy with significant negative impacts on child birth weigh...
English Abstract: This paper estimates the causal impact that changes in household´s income have ... more English Abstract: This paper estimates the causal impact that changes in household´s income have on Domestic Violence (DV) rates in Colombia. Using the arguably exogenous variation in time and space of the payments of a Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) program and a three-year-long monthly municipal balanced panel data set, we find that DV rates decrease by six percent in the months when the transfers are received. However, this effect is only transitory and varies according to households’ expectations on when the transfers are received. Negative shocks that take place when families do not receive the transfer they were expecting, intensify economic scarcity, and DV rates in those months follow suit. On the contrary, positive shocks that occur when families receive an unexpected transfer only have a marginal reduction on DV. The channel that appears to be explaining our results is a budget constraint alleviation mechanism that reduces scarcity as the timing of the receipt of the transfer consistently reduces DV and increases consumption in the month of payment. Furthermore, there is no clear evidence of alternative channels that could explain the results such as changes in female empowerment, marital status, labor participation, or social networks of the beneficiary women. Spanish Abstract: Este trabajo estima el impacto causal que tienen los cambios en ingresos del hogar sobre la tasa de Violencia Domestica (VD) municipal para Colombia. Para ello se utiliza la variacion exogena, dada en el tiempo y en el espacio, de los pagos del programa de Transferencia Condicionadas, encontrando asi, que la tasa de VD se reduce en un seis porciento en los meses de pago de la transferencia. Choques negativos de ingreso, que occuren cuando la familia no recibe una transferencia que esperaba, intensifica la escases economica y se traduce en una mayor tasa de VD. Por el contratio, cuando ocurren choques positivos de ingreso, por recibir una transferencia inesperada, solo se evidencia una reduccion marginal en la VD. El canal por el cual se reduce la VD parece estar explicado por la reduccion en la escasez economica. La transferencia relaja la restriccion presupuestal permitiendo un incremento en consumo que coincide exactamente con el mes de pago. Adicionalmente, no hay evidencia clara que indique que otros canales alternos como el empoderamiento de la mujer, el estado civil, la participacion laboral, o redes sociales puedan estar cambiando.
Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of IZA. Research published i... more Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of IZA. Research published in this series may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions. The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn is a local and virtual international research center and a place of communication between science, politics and business. IZA is an independent nonprofit organization supported by Deutsche Post Foundation. The center is associated with the University of Bonn and offers a stimulating research environment through its international network, workshops and conferences, data service, project support, research visits and doctoral program. IZA engages in (i) original and internationally competitive research in all fields of labor economics, (ii) development of policy concepts, and (iii) dissemination of research results and concepts to the interested public. IZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to enco...
En este trabajo estudiamos los efectos indirectos del mayor programa de transferencias condiciona... more En este trabajo estudiamos los efectos indirectos del mayor programa de transferencias condicionadas (PTC) de Colombia, Familias en Accion, sobre los niveles de criminalidad en el area urbana de la ciudad de Bogota. Para realizar este estudio combinamos las siguientes dos fuentes de informacion: el Sistema de Informacion de beneficiarios de Familias en Accion (SIFA) y los reportes administrativos de criminalidad de la Policia Nacional. En el estudio evaluamos dos posibles canales por los cuales Familias en Accion puede afectar los niveles de criminalidad. Por un lado, el efecto ingreso, para el cual explotamos la variacion existente en las fechas de pago del programa. Nuestros resultados indican que a traves de este efecto el programa reduce el crimen a la propiedad.
Este trabajo cuantifica el retorno de la inversion en cuidado preventivo en terminos de la reducc... more Este trabajo cuantifica el retorno de la inversion en cuidado preventivo en terminos de la reduccion del numero de hospitalizaciones o urgencia para ninos entre 0 y 5 anos en laciudad de Bogota. Para ello se utilizo un panel de individuos construidos a partir de los Registros de visitas reportados por las IPS (RIPS) desde 2003 hasta 2007, con el que se hace un seguimiento de los servicios de salud demandados por cada individuo a lo largo de este periodo. Adicionalmente este trabajo explota como variacion exogena la modificacion que se dio en la legislacion en 2004, donde se eliminan las cuotas moderadoras para los servicios preventivos requeridos por los menores de un ano de edad. De esta forma se encuentra que un incremento en un 1% de las consultas, reducen en 0.56% el numero de hospitalizaciones para los ninos que son beneficiarios por la legislacion, mientras que no se encuentra efecto de las consultas sobre el numero de urgencias.
This paper uses two unique panel data sets to study the causal effect that armed conflict has ove... more This paper uses two unique panel data sets to study the causal effect that armed conflict has over entrepreneurial activity in Colombia. Using a fixed effect estimation methodology at the plant level and controlling for the possible endogeneity of armed conflict through the use of instrumental variables, we find that a one standard deviation in the number of guerrilla and paramilitary attacks in a municipality increases the probability of firm exit in 8.1 percentage points. This effect is stronger for smaller plants and has a differential impact with respect to firms’ age.
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