Prof.Dr. Ahmed Omran is the Chief Technical Officer of the AB3Dlabs company, CA, USA. He is a Professor at Faculty of Computers and information, Egypt. He has completed his MSc and PhD in Computer Science Domain at the Intelligent System Field, Egypt. His research interests are centred on Artificial Intelligent (AI) Optimization, Modeling, Simulation and Decision Support Systems (DSSs) and his PhD focused on the Intelligent Decision Support Systems.He has worked as a consultant for Artificial Intelligent in different national and international organizations for more than 18 years. He started his career in the UN-FAO and after that, he promoted to the Egyptian Cabinet and final he has joined the League of Arab States with increasing responsibility in consulting activities.
Thinking about the future enables us to anticipate change and its associated opportunities, which... more Thinking about the future enables us to anticipate change and its associated opportunities, which is vital for sound planning. One of the major limitations of the traditional long-range strategic planning model is that information about the changing external environment is usually not taken into account systematically or comprehensively. When this omission occurs because of an assumption that “the complexity for prediction external changes”. Then, traditional long-range planning destines itself to surprise and failure. Our proposed framework integrates futures studies concepts and techniques with strategic planning holds the prospect that Decision-makers(DM) can identify patterns based on a wealth of past experience that suggest an appropriate response and quantitative mathematical methods, which give more confidence for them.
Futures studies, or long-range perspective studies, are an indispensable source of help for sound... more Futures studies, or long-range perspective studies, are an indispensable source of help for sound planning and decision making in today's chaotic, complex and rapidly changing world. The accelerating pace of change, together with a multitude of accompanying uncertainties, make it all the more important to expand our time perspectives so as to include the future, ie. to futurize our thinking. This can generally be done through utilizing a variety of futures studies methods. Such methods can be either qualitative, ...
Thinking about the future enables us to anticipate change and its associated opportunities, which... more Thinking about the future enables us to anticipate change and its associated opportunities, which is vital for sound planning. One of the major limitations of the traditional long-range strategic planning model is that information about the changing external environment is usually not taken into account systematically or comprehensively. When this omission occurs because of an assumption that “the complexity for prediction external changes”. Then, traditional long-range planning destines itself to surprise and failure. Our ...
In long term view, policy/decision makers need to justifiable anticipation for the major future d... more In long term view, policy/decision makers need to justifiable anticipation for the major future drivers that may effect on their domain key variables. In this paper, we develop a knowledge-based structural analysis approach that based on integrating of RT-Delphi, structural analysis, knowledgebased and explanation modeling capabilities. We applied the developed approach in two crucial domains in Egypt, which are food security and water security (milk production). In addition, it was 15 and 25 experts participate in food security and water security cases. They share knowledge for identifying, analyzing and foreseeing potentials of Egypt's water and food security as ground to thinking of pilot solutions aimed at evading problems and futures drivers as well as developing a repository of knowledge whereby Egypt's policy/decision makers are attained.
IAES International Journal of Artificial Intelligence (IJ-AI)
Real-Time (RT) Delphi approach is widely used method for knowledge acquisition process. The curre... more Real-Time (RT) Delphi approach is widely used method for knowledge acquisition process. The current RT-Delphi approach ignores considering the unifying domain concepts and their attributes. This limitation can provide the contradiction of the domain experts' judgments and increasing misunderstandings when talking about specific topics. In addition, the current RT-Delphi ignores the explanation capabilities for consensus results, which it is vital for policy/decision makers to be more confidence. The core of this research is to develop ontology-based RT-Delphi with explanation capabilities. We applied the developed approach in to two crucial important case studies in Egypt, which are food security and water security.
The International Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, 2008
An'exploratory futures studies' activity attempts to draw a holistic or systemic map of... more An'exploratory futures studies' activity attempts to draw a holistic or systemic map of the future, in a certain domain. Such a map is based on insights developed by examining trends, mega-trends (ie trends that extend over many generations), potential trends (ie trends that can emerge in future), early warning indicators, possible future events, wildcards (ie low probability but high impact events; eg 11 Sept.), limits & saturation effects, emerging forces and actors, and various dynamic factors that can lead to various scenarios (ie ...
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Nov 30, 2008
Decision makers in governments, corporations and institutions all need to forecast the future. Us... more Decision makers in governments, corporations and institutions all need to forecast the future. Usually, traditional quantitative forecasting techniques are applied for this purpose. But the limitation of such methods is well known since all quantitative methods that are built solely on historical data (whether time-series or causal methods) produce forecasts by extrapolating such data into the future ignoring the effects of unprecedented future events that could cause deviation from the original surprise-free forecast if they were to occur. In ...
Research on the Egyptian food security, has become the subject of countless studies and debates. ... more Research on the Egyptian food security, has become the subject of countless studies and debates. The gap between the Egyptian domestic food production and consumption is translated into high import costs. In this paper, modeling, simulation analytical capability, expert experiences and imagination, and policy/decision makers' insights are integrated in a decision support system (DSS). The developed DSS is used to anticipate the future of the national food security and to create a consensus about the ...
Thinking about the future enables us to anticipate change and its associated opportunities, which... more Thinking about the future enables us to anticipate change and its associated opportunities, which is vital for sound planning. One of the major limitations of the traditional long-range strategic planning model is that information about the changing external environment is usually not taken into account systematically or comprehensively. When this omission occurs because of an assumption that “the complexity for prediction external changes”. Then, traditional long-range planning destines itself to surprise and failure. Our proposed framework integrates futures studies concepts and techniques with strategic planning holds the prospect that Decision-makers(DM) can identify patterns based on a wealth of past experience that suggest an appropriate response and quantitative mathematical methods, which give more confidence for them.
Futures studies, or long-range perspective studies, are an indispensable source of help for sound... more Futures studies, or long-range perspective studies, are an indispensable source of help for sound planning and decision making in today's chaotic, complex and rapidly changing world. The accelerating pace of change, together with a multitude of accompanying uncertainties, make it all the more important to expand our time perspectives so as to include the future, ie. to futurize our thinking. This can generally be done through utilizing a variety of futures studies methods. Such methods can be either qualitative, ...
Thinking about the future enables us to anticipate change and its associated opportunities, which... more Thinking about the future enables us to anticipate change and its associated opportunities, which is vital for sound planning. One of the major limitations of the traditional long-range strategic planning model is that information about the changing external environment is usually not taken into account systematically or comprehensively. When this omission occurs because of an assumption that “the complexity for prediction external changes”. Then, traditional long-range planning destines itself to surprise and failure. Our ...
In long term view, policy/decision makers need to justifiable anticipation for the major future d... more In long term view, policy/decision makers need to justifiable anticipation for the major future drivers that may effect on their domain key variables. In this paper, we develop a knowledge-based structural analysis approach that based on integrating of RT-Delphi, structural analysis, knowledgebased and explanation modeling capabilities. We applied the developed approach in two crucial domains in Egypt, which are food security and water security (milk production). In addition, it was 15 and 25 experts participate in food security and water security cases. They share knowledge for identifying, analyzing and foreseeing potentials of Egypt's water and food security as ground to thinking of pilot solutions aimed at evading problems and futures drivers as well as developing a repository of knowledge whereby Egypt's policy/decision makers are attained.
IAES International Journal of Artificial Intelligence (IJ-AI)
Real-Time (RT) Delphi approach is widely used method for knowledge acquisition process. The curre... more Real-Time (RT) Delphi approach is widely used method for knowledge acquisition process. The current RT-Delphi approach ignores considering the unifying domain concepts and their attributes. This limitation can provide the contradiction of the domain experts' judgments and increasing misunderstandings when talking about specific topics. In addition, the current RT-Delphi ignores the explanation capabilities for consensus results, which it is vital for policy/decision makers to be more confidence. The core of this research is to develop ontology-based RT-Delphi with explanation capabilities. We applied the developed approach in to two crucial important case studies in Egypt, which are food security and water security.
The International Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, 2008
An'exploratory futures studies' activity attempts to draw a holistic or systemic map of... more An'exploratory futures studies' activity attempts to draw a holistic or systemic map of the future, in a certain domain. Such a map is based on insights developed by examining trends, mega-trends (ie trends that extend over many generations), potential trends (ie trends that can emerge in future), early warning indicators, possible future events, wildcards (ie low probability but high impact events; eg 11 Sept.), limits & saturation effects, emerging forces and actors, and various dynamic factors that can lead to various scenarios (ie ...
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Nov 30, 2008
Decision makers in governments, corporations and institutions all need to forecast the future. Us... more Decision makers in governments, corporations and institutions all need to forecast the future. Usually, traditional quantitative forecasting techniques are applied for this purpose. But the limitation of such methods is well known since all quantitative methods that are built solely on historical data (whether time-series or causal methods) produce forecasts by extrapolating such data into the future ignoring the effects of unprecedented future events that could cause deviation from the original surprise-free forecast if they were to occur. In ...
Research on the Egyptian food security, has become the subject of countless studies and debates. ... more Research on the Egyptian food security, has become the subject of countless studies and debates. The gap between the Egyptian domestic food production and consumption is translated into high import costs. In this paper, modeling, simulation analytical capability, expert experiences and imagination, and policy/decision makers' insights are integrated in a decision support system (DSS). The developed DSS is used to anticipate the future of the national food security and to create a consensus about the ...
Uploads