Syrian Trade, Health and Industry in Conflict Time (2011-2021) A study on the impact of war, public policies and sanctions , 2022
While experts agree on the disastrous economic and humanitarian conditions in Syria, divergence o... more While experts agree on the disastrous economic and humanitarian conditions in Syria, divergence on the combination of factors causing it is wide. Sanctions are the most debated factor for their consequences, but war and public policies are often overlooked for their contribution. This study aimed to fill this gap by reconsidering the collective effects of war, sanctions, and public policies on the Syrian economy during wartime. The report suggests a framework to analyze the impact of the three factors on two distinct yet connected issues: the destruction of the economy and its recovery. To showcase this, three parts of the Syrian economy have been examined in this report: trade institutions, health and human capabilities, and manufacturing. The three chapters showed that the woes of the Syrian economy during wartime cannot be attributed to only one factor, and studying the sequence and domain of effect for each is key to better analyze the situation and provide sound policy advice. This report offers a framework for a comprehensive analysis that could help produce more balanced assessments on the causes of destruction and determinants of recovery. The lack of accurate and systematic information on the Syrian economy is a challenge for all researchers. However, a robust analytical framework could reduce judgment errors and polarization over these politically charged issues. The Lebanese economic crisis and Covid-19 were two more external shocks to the Syrian economy that took place during the research production (2019-2021). The latter factors were included in the overall analysis, yet they should undergo a more careful assessment in the future. The three chapters provide four main contributions to the current research and policy debates on the Syrian development. They connect intra-war dynamics to pre-war economic realities; use existing and new data to identify new and old dynamics and trends in the economy; use a multi-factor approach to assess the three aforementioned factors’ effects on both destruction and recovery of the sectors under study; and distinguish between the developmental and coercive capacity of the state. The key findings of the study are: - Pre-war economic and institutional settings are key to understanding intra-war dynamics. Many current trends in Syrian trade institutions are a continuation of pre-war dynamics: Informalization and institutional decay, the role of intermediaries in the economy, and the overlap between business, bureaucratic, and political actors internally and externally are known phenomena for the institutional economic structure in Syria pre-2010. Health indicators also were deteriorating in the 2000s: public and private expenditure decreased, which lead to rising rates of chronic diseases and a rise in the mortality of children among many others. Economy was no exception, as oil production lost near half of its capacity, and severe droughts had cross-sectoral impacts on the economy and society. - Old trends persisted and new dynamics emerged during the war. The war accelerated institutional informalization and trade primarization, but also created a fragmentation of territories and brought some governmental efforts for institutionalization and re-formalization. The human development deteriorated during the war: mortality rates spiked, disabilities increased, malnutrition proliferated, trauma became widespread, and the number of medical staff decreased. Manufacturing overall declined by more than 90 percent, with few exceptions. The industrial chemicals, iron and steel, machinery, and textile industries were the most devastated. Yet, the food and beverage industry and pharmaceutical production were less affected. An observation that could give a glimmer of hope for future recovery. - War is the major contributor to destruction while public policies and sanctions share more responsibility for any future recovery. War is the most obvious culprit of the three, being directly and indirectly responsible for the destruction of physical and social infrastructure described above in all sectors. However, public policies and sanctions will together affect the future recovery of the economy along with the war legacy. Military activities could be considered the main driver that led to the majority 11 of Syrians being killed, injured, displaced, or emigrated since 2011. War also is responsible for the destruction of health facilities and the killing of medical staff. The destruction of production facilities and infrastructure (such as roads, electricity grids, and water networks) is the main reason for limited economic activities in all sectors. War heavily affected all production elements in terms of fuel, production material, spare parts, working forces, finances, and customers. War has also resulted in territorial fragmentation, primarization of production and exports, and dependence on foreign support. - Ending military operations will not reverse the damage done without wider political and economic transformation. Sources of insecurity like arbitrary arrests, inter-city cross points, kidnappings, and all forms of lawlessness are affecting economic recovery. Public economic policies affecting investment, job creation, currency valuation, and the fight against corruption also have an impact on the pace of recovery. The report showed that public authorities can use their power to reverse the course of destruction. Reforms under war and sanctions are possible. That was the case when the Syrian government pushed towards institutionalization and improving the state capacity in taxation and public services provision in 2019. More can be done, even under the worst circumstances. - The impact of sanctions on the resumption of activities comes in different forms, primarily by complicating the import of energy and securing inputs for production. Sanctions on the energy sector in Syria have significantly affected energy imports to the country, though the war has also destroyed local production capacity and reduced the overall demand for energy. The over-compliance of international banks reduces the chances of the import of goods to Syria using international financial channels, thereby affecting human development through the direct hindering of the import of equipment, medicine, and raw materials. Hyperinflation in Syria is the result of war, sanctions, the Lebanese economic crisis, and public policies. - There is a need for ways to improve state developmental capacity and constrain coercive capacity. State capacity is crucial to a sustainable peacebuilding and post-conflict recovery. The dilemma facing Syria is that targeting the regime is undermining the state in all its capacities, with higher effects on its developmental aspects. The deterioration in the humanitarian situation is rapid and the needs gap is increasing faster than the international community’s response capacity. Supporting half of the Syrian population in need via temporary measures is unsustainable, especially with decreasing financial contributions of international donors. Apart from the politics of aid in Syria, a technical distinction between state developmental capacity versus coercive capacity could help redesign the current approaches to Syria to become more sustainable and effective.
In the Arab world, covering the Mashriq, the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa, wars and conflic... more In the Arab world, covering the Mashriq, the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa, wars and conflicts are impeding every initiative to reflect upon democratic progress or the protection of rights. Where peace prevails, economic difficulties are discouraging political reform and tolerance, and where petrodollars flow, regimes are using their wealth to buy support, reinforce allegiance, fund intervention in neighbouring countries, and catalyse fratricidal conflicts. War-torn countries such as Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Sudan and Somalia have witnessed continuous violations of human rights. Chemical weapons, torture, harsh detention conditions, child soldiers and other abuses have been practised by all sides, with the international community turning a blind eye to violations committed by its allies. As long as conflict prevails in these countries, prospects will look grim. Geostrategic conflicts, land conquest and border control will remain their primary concern. However, countries that ...
Syrian Trade, Health and Industry in Conflict Time (2011-2021) A study on the impact of war, public policies and sanctions , 2022
While experts agree on the disastrous economic and humanitarian conditions in Syria, divergence o... more While experts agree on the disastrous economic and humanitarian conditions in Syria, divergence on the combination of factors causing it is wide. Sanctions are the most debated factor for their consequences, but war and public policies are often overlooked for their contribution. This study aimed to fill this gap by reconsidering the collective effects of war, sanctions, and public policies on the Syrian economy during wartime. The report suggests a framework to analyze the impact of the three factors on two distinct yet connected issues: the destruction of the economy and its recovery. To showcase this, three parts of the Syrian economy have been examined in this report: trade institutions, health and human capabilities, and manufacturing. The three chapters showed that the woes of the Syrian economy during wartime cannot be attributed to only one factor, and studying the sequence and domain of effect for each is key to better analyze the situation and provide sound policy advice. This report offers a framework for a comprehensive analysis that could help produce more balanced assessments on the causes of destruction and determinants of recovery. The lack of accurate and systematic information on the Syrian economy is a challenge for all researchers. However, a robust analytical framework could reduce judgment errors and polarization over these politically charged issues. The Lebanese economic crisis and Covid-19 were two more external shocks to the Syrian economy that took place during the research production (2019-2021). The latter factors were included in the overall analysis, yet they should undergo a more careful assessment in the future. The three chapters provide four main contributions to the current research and policy debates on the Syrian development. They connect intra-war dynamics to pre-war economic realities; use existing and new data to identify new and old dynamics and trends in the economy; use a multi-factor approach to assess the three aforementioned factors’ effects on both destruction and recovery of the sectors under study; and distinguish between the developmental and coercive capacity of the state. The key findings of the study are: - Pre-war economic and institutional settings are key to understanding intra-war dynamics. Many current trends in Syrian trade institutions are a continuation of pre-war dynamics: Informalization and institutional decay, the role of intermediaries in the economy, and the overlap between business, bureaucratic, and political actors internally and externally are known phenomena for the institutional economic structure in Syria pre-2010. Health indicators also were deteriorating in the 2000s: public and private expenditure decreased, which lead to rising rates of chronic diseases and a rise in the mortality of children among many others. Economy was no exception, as oil production lost near half of its capacity, and severe droughts had cross-sectoral impacts on the economy and society. - Old trends persisted and new dynamics emerged during the war. The war accelerated institutional informalization and trade primarization, but also created a fragmentation of territories and brought some governmental efforts for institutionalization and re-formalization. The human development deteriorated during the war: mortality rates spiked, disabilities increased, malnutrition proliferated, trauma became widespread, and the number of medical staff decreased. Manufacturing overall declined by more than 90 percent, with few exceptions. The industrial chemicals, iron and steel, machinery, and textile industries were the most devastated. Yet, the food and beverage industry and pharmaceutical production were less affected. An observation that could give a glimmer of hope for future recovery. - War is the major contributor to destruction while public policies and sanctions share more responsibility for any future recovery. War is the most obvious culprit of the three, being directly and indirectly responsible for the destruction of physical and social infrastructure described above in all sectors. However, public policies and sanctions will together affect the future recovery of the economy along with the war legacy. Military activities could be considered the main driver that led to the majority 11 of Syrians being killed, injured, displaced, or emigrated since 2011. War also is responsible for the destruction of health facilities and the killing of medical staff. The destruction of production facilities and infrastructure (such as roads, electricity grids, and water networks) is the main reason for limited economic activities in all sectors. War heavily affected all production elements in terms of fuel, production material, spare parts, working forces, finances, and customers. War has also resulted in territorial fragmentation, primarization of production and exports, and dependence on foreign support. - Ending military operations will not reverse the damage done without wider political and economic transformation. Sources of insecurity like arbitrary arrests, inter-city cross points, kidnappings, and all forms of lawlessness are affecting economic recovery. Public economic policies affecting investment, job creation, currency valuation, and the fight against corruption also have an impact on the pace of recovery. The report showed that public authorities can use their power to reverse the course of destruction. Reforms under war and sanctions are possible. That was the case when the Syrian government pushed towards institutionalization and improving the state capacity in taxation and public services provision in 2019. More can be done, even under the worst circumstances. - The impact of sanctions on the resumption of activities comes in different forms, primarily by complicating the import of energy and securing inputs for production. Sanctions on the energy sector in Syria have significantly affected energy imports to the country, though the war has also destroyed local production capacity and reduced the overall demand for energy. The over-compliance of international banks reduces the chances of the import of goods to Syria using international financial channels, thereby affecting human development through the direct hindering of the import of equipment, medicine, and raw materials. Hyperinflation in Syria is the result of war, sanctions, the Lebanese economic crisis, and public policies. - There is a need for ways to improve state developmental capacity and constrain coercive capacity. State capacity is crucial to a sustainable peacebuilding and post-conflict recovery. The dilemma facing Syria is that targeting the regime is undermining the state in all its capacities, with higher effects on its developmental aspects. The deterioration in the humanitarian situation is rapid and the needs gap is increasing faster than the international community’s response capacity. Supporting half of the Syrian population in need via temporary measures is unsustainable, especially with decreasing financial contributions of international donors. Apart from the politics of aid in Syria, a technical distinction between state developmental capacity versus coercive capacity could help redesign the current approaches to Syria to become more sustainable and effective.
In the Arab world, covering the Mashriq, the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa, wars and conflic... more In the Arab world, covering the Mashriq, the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa, wars and conflicts are impeding every initiative to reflect upon democratic progress or the protection of rights. Where peace prevails, economic difficulties are discouraging political reform and tolerance, and where petrodollars flow, regimes are using their wealth to buy support, reinforce allegiance, fund intervention in neighbouring countries, and catalyse fratricidal conflicts. War-torn countries such as Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Sudan and Somalia have witnessed continuous violations of human rights. Chemical weapons, torture, harsh detention conditions, child soldiers and other abuses have been practised by all sides, with the international community turning a blind eye to violations committed by its allies. As long as conflict prevails in these countries, prospects will look grim. Geostrategic conflicts, land conquest and border control will remain their primary concern. However, countries that ...
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بدأ الرابع من آب/أغسطس عام 2020 كأيّ يوم بيروتي اعتيادي، ولكننا لم نكن ندرك حجم الكارثة التي ستقع.