Recent debate on whether the climatic niche of species is conserved or not in a context of climat... more Recent debate on whether the climatic niche of species is conserved or not in a context of climate change has generally focused either solely on invasive species or on a relatively limited number of native species. However, invasive species may not be optimal for assessing the likelihood of niche conservatism because the time since geographical separation is usually short. Our results are based on a large sample size of populations of 389 terrestrial vascular plant species, with various biogeographic, ecological and biological features, occurring in both the European Alps and Fennoscandia but originating from different colonization events that have taken place since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Using two complementary approaches, we first tested for a region effect on each species’ climatic niche and then quantified niche overlap and niche shifts within a bi-dimensional climatic space. We found only 59 species (15%) for which the climatic niche is different between the two region...
IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2009
Abstract. In this paper we examined the potential impacts of predicted climatic changes on the fl... more Abstract. In this paper we examined the potential impacts of predicted climatic changes on the flora and vegetation in Denmark using data from a digital database on the natural vegetation of Europe. Climate scenarios A2 and B2 were used to find regions with present climatic conditions similar to Denmark's climate in the year 2100. The potential natural vegetation of Denmark today is predominantly deciduous forest that would cover more than 90% of the landscape. Swamps, bogs, and wet forest would be found under moist or wet ...
Abstract Salt meadows are thought to be vulnerable to habitat loss under future sea-level rise (S... more Abstract Salt meadows are thought to be vulnerable to habitat loss under future sea-level rise (SLR) due to inundation and compression of coastal environments (coastal squeezing). The extent of this threat is poorly understood due to the lack of geographically comprehensive impact assessments. Here, we linked vegetation data for Danish salt meadows to novel very fine-resolution digital elevation models. We developed statistical models relating plant species richness and average salt tolerance to elevation at different ...
Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (&a... more Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km(2) ) suggest that fine-grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate-change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine-grained thermal variability across a 2500-km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000-m(2) units (community-inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1-km(2) units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1-km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100-km(2) units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46-72% of variation in LmT and 92-96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing-season CiT range within 1-km(2) units peaked at 60-65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography-related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing-season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing-season CiT within 100-km(2) units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km(-1) ) than spatial turnover in growing-season GiT (0.18 °C km(-1) ). We conclude that thermal variability within 1-km(2) units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.
Recent debate on whether the climatic niche of species is conserved or not in a context of climat... more Recent debate on whether the climatic niche of species is conserved or not in a context of climate change has generally focused either solely on invasive species or on a relatively limited number of native species. However, invasive species may not be optimal for assessing the likelihood of niche conservatism because the time since geographical separation is usually short. Our results are based on a large sample size of populations of 389 terrestrial vascular plant species, with various biogeographic, ecological and biological features, occurring in both the European Alps and Fennoscandia but originating from different colonization events that have taken place since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Using two complementary approaches, we first tested for a region effect on each species’ climatic niche and then quantified niche overlap and niche shifts within a bi-dimensional climatic space. We found only 59 species (15%) for which the climatic niche is different between the two region...
IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2009
Abstract. In this paper we examined the potential impacts of predicted climatic changes on the fl... more Abstract. In this paper we examined the potential impacts of predicted climatic changes on the flora and vegetation in Denmark using data from a digital database on the natural vegetation of Europe. Climate scenarios A2 and B2 were used to find regions with present climatic conditions similar to Denmark's climate in the year 2100. The potential natural vegetation of Denmark today is predominantly deciduous forest that would cover more than 90% of the landscape. Swamps, bogs, and wet forest would be found under moist or wet ...
Abstract Salt meadows are thought to be vulnerable to habitat loss under future sea-level rise (S... more Abstract Salt meadows are thought to be vulnerable to habitat loss under future sea-level rise (SLR) due to inundation and compression of coastal environments (coastal squeezing). The extent of this threat is poorly understood due to the lack of geographically comprehensive impact assessments. Here, we linked vegetation data for Danish salt meadows to novel very fine-resolution digital elevation models. We developed statistical models relating plant species richness and average salt tolerance to elevation at different ...
Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (&a... more Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km(2) ) suggest that fine-grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate-change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine-grained thermal variability across a 2500-km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000-m(2) units (community-inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1-km(2) units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1-km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100-km(2) units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46-72% of variation in LmT and 92-96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing-season CiT range within 1-km(2) units peaked at 60-65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography-related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing-season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing-season CiT within 100-km(2) units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km(-1) ) than spatial turnover in growing-season GiT (0.18 °C km(-1) ). We conclude that thermal variability within 1-km(2) units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.
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Papers by Bettina Nygaard