Future climate change could have significant repercussions on two related natural hazards: lightn... more Future climate change could have significant repercussions on two related natural hazards: lightning and forest fires. The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM), has been used to study possible changes in lightning and forest fires as a result of climate change. Initial model results show that for an atmosphere containing twice today’s CO2 concentration, the global lightning activity increases by approximately 32%, while the likelihood of severe drought conditions increases from 1% in today’s climate to nearly 50% by the year 2060. Conditions favorable for forest fires are strongly linked to climate, and particularly to drought frequencies. Therefore, increases in both lightning activity and the frequency of droughts could result in dramatic changes in forest fire frequencies and intensities in the future.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2006
Gamma radiation observed in space has been associated with lightning flashes in thunderstorms. Th... more Gamma radiation observed in space has been associated with lightning flashes in thunderstorms. These special flashes do not appear to be the large and energetic positive ground flashes that also produce sprites. Considerations of gamma ray attenuation in air indicate that such flashes may not produce gamma radiation at sufficient altitude to enable their escape to space. High‐altitude intracloud lightning, most prevalent in the tropics where the tropopause is also high, may be a necessary source.
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2007
During the northern hemisphere winter of 20052006, transient luminous events (TLEs) known as &#x... more During the northern hemisphere winter of 20052006, transient luminous events (TLEs) known as 'sprites' and 'elves' were imaged over thunderstorm cells in the eastern Mediterranean. Simultaneously, extremely low frequency (ELF) data (ELF: 33000 Hz) were recorded at ...
Space‐based instruments on the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) have been used to study rai... more Space‐based instruments on the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) have been used to study rainfall and lightning over the central and eastern Mediterranean Sea. Data from six winters (1998 until 2003) were analyzed. Rainfall amounts increase during the winter months, with the maximum precipitation occurring during December, while lightning activity has a maximum during November. Analysis of seasonal rainfall and lightning activity showed a strong correlation with ENSO events. Instantaneous (90 second) analysis of the rain and lightning in individual storms reveals a strong correlation between rain rate and total flash rate. Monthly and seasonal correlation coefficients between rainfall and lightning were found to vary between 0.81 and 0.98, with the rainfall yield (kg/flash) found to vary between 2.5 × 108 and 9.7 × 108 kg/flash. Due to these high correlations we suggest the possibility to use lightning data over the Mediterranean Sea as a proxy for instantaneous rain rate in th...
ABSTRACT Red sprites, elves and blue jets are upper atmospheric optical phenomena associated with... more ABSTRACT Red sprites, elves and blue jets are upper atmospheric optical phenomena associated with thunderstorms that have only recently been documented and investigated. Sprites are massive but weak luminous flashes that appear directly above an active ...
ABSTRACT The Mediterranean Israeli Dust Experiment (MEIDEX) flew on-board the space shuttle Colum... more ABSTRACT The Mediterranean Israeli Dust Experiment (MEIDEX) flew on-board the space shuttle Columbia in winter 2003. During the night-side of 23 shuttle orbits there were dedicated observations of the Earth's limb, above forecasted areas of active thunderstorms. This was accomplished with a Xybion IMC-201 multispectral camera (860nm, 665nm, 380nm, 470nm), guided by the astronauts toward the storms with intent of capturing Sprites, Elves and Jets. The cumulative observation time from space was planned around 6 hours. The data was recorded by the astronauts in the crew cabin and was either downlinked to the ground in real-time or played-back within 12 hours. Two VLF/ELF sites in Israel were simultaneously used to collect electromagnetic data related to strong lightning discharges, together with stations in Hungary, USA, Antarctica and Japan. We hope to report initial results from this campaign, and to connect the space based observations of TLEs to the signals received on the ground.
The first attempt to model global lightning distributions by using the Goddard Institute for Spac... more The first attempt to model global lightning distributions by using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM is reported. Three sets of observations showing the relationship between lightning frequency and cloud top height are shown. Zonally averaged lightning frequency observed by satellite are compared with those calculated using the GISS GCM, and fair agreement is found. The change in lightning frequency for a double CO2 climate is calculated and found to be nearly 2.23 x 10 exp 6 extra lightning flashes per day.
There is now a considerable body of theoretical and experimental research that re-lates the prope... more There is now a considerable body of theoretical and experimental research that re-lates the properties of complex dynamical phenomena in nature to those described by network theory [Strogatz, Nature, 2001]. In this context, a network is a system composed of several ...
Tropospheric water vapour is a key element of the Earth's climate, which has direct effec... more Tropospheric water vapour is a key element of the Earth's climate, which has direct effects as a greenhouse gas, as well as indirect effects through interaction with clouds, aerosols and tropospheric chemistry. Small changes in upper-tropospheric water vapour have a much larger impact on the greenhouse effect than small changes in water vapour in the lower atmosphere, but whether this impact is a positive or negative feedback remains uncertain. The main challenge in addressing this question is the difficulty in monitoring upper-tropospheric water vapour globally over long timescales. Here I show that upper-tropospheric water-vapour variability and global lightning activity are closely linked, suggesting that upper-tropospheric water-vapour changes can be inferred from records of global lightning activity, readily obtained from observations at a single location on the Earth's surface. This correlation reflects the fact that continental deep-convective thunderstorms transport large amounts of water vapour into the upper troposphere and thereby dominate the variations of global upper-tropospheric water vapour while producing most of the lightning on Earth. As global lightning induces Schumann resonances, an electromagnetic phenomenon in the atmosphere that can be observed easily at low cost, monitoring of these resonances might provide a convenient method for tracking upper-tropospheric water-vapour variability and hence contribute to a better understanding of the processes affecting climate change.
Future climate change could have significant repercussions on two related natural hazards: lightn... more Future climate change could have significant repercussions on two related natural hazards: lightning and forest fires. The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM), has been used to study possible changes in lightning and forest fires as a result of climate change. Initial model results show that for an atmosphere containing twice today’s CO2 concentration, the global lightning activity increases by approximately 32%, while the likelihood of severe drought conditions increases from 1% in today’s climate to nearly 50% by the year 2060. Conditions favorable for forest fires are strongly linked to climate, and particularly to drought frequencies. Therefore, increases in both lightning activity and the frequency of droughts could result in dramatic changes in forest fire frequencies and intensities in the future.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2006
Gamma radiation observed in space has been associated with lightning flashes in thunderstorms. Th... more Gamma radiation observed in space has been associated with lightning flashes in thunderstorms. These special flashes do not appear to be the large and energetic positive ground flashes that also produce sprites. Considerations of gamma ray attenuation in air indicate that such flashes may not produce gamma radiation at sufficient altitude to enable their escape to space. High‐altitude intracloud lightning, most prevalent in the tropics where the tropopause is also high, may be a necessary source.
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2007
During the northern hemisphere winter of 20052006, transient luminous events (TLEs) known as &#x... more During the northern hemisphere winter of 20052006, transient luminous events (TLEs) known as 'sprites' and 'elves' were imaged over thunderstorm cells in the eastern Mediterranean. Simultaneously, extremely low frequency (ELF) data (ELF: 33000 Hz) were recorded at ...
Space‐based instruments on the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) have been used to study rai... more Space‐based instruments on the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) have been used to study rainfall and lightning over the central and eastern Mediterranean Sea. Data from six winters (1998 until 2003) were analyzed. Rainfall amounts increase during the winter months, with the maximum precipitation occurring during December, while lightning activity has a maximum during November. Analysis of seasonal rainfall and lightning activity showed a strong correlation with ENSO events. Instantaneous (90 second) analysis of the rain and lightning in individual storms reveals a strong correlation between rain rate and total flash rate. Monthly and seasonal correlation coefficients between rainfall and lightning were found to vary between 0.81 and 0.98, with the rainfall yield (kg/flash) found to vary between 2.5 × 108 and 9.7 × 108 kg/flash. Due to these high correlations we suggest the possibility to use lightning data over the Mediterranean Sea as a proxy for instantaneous rain rate in th...
ABSTRACT Red sprites, elves and blue jets are upper atmospheric optical phenomena associated with... more ABSTRACT Red sprites, elves and blue jets are upper atmospheric optical phenomena associated with thunderstorms that have only recently been documented and investigated. Sprites are massive but weak luminous flashes that appear directly above an active ...
ABSTRACT The Mediterranean Israeli Dust Experiment (MEIDEX) flew on-board the space shuttle Colum... more ABSTRACT The Mediterranean Israeli Dust Experiment (MEIDEX) flew on-board the space shuttle Columbia in winter 2003. During the night-side of 23 shuttle orbits there were dedicated observations of the Earth's limb, above forecasted areas of active thunderstorms. This was accomplished with a Xybion IMC-201 multispectral camera (860nm, 665nm, 380nm, 470nm), guided by the astronauts toward the storms with intent of capturing Sprites, Elves and Jets. The cumulative observation time from space was planned around 6 hours. The data was recorded by the astronauts in the crew cabin and was either downlinked to the ground in real-time or played-back within 12 hours. Two VLF/ELF sites in Israel were simultaneously used to collect electromagnetic data related to strong lightning discharges, together with stations in Hungary, USA, Antarctica and Japan. We hope to report initial results from this campaign, and to connect the space based observations of TLEs to the signals received on the ground.
The first attempt to model global lightning distributions by using the Goddard Institute for Spac... more The first attempt to model global lightning distributions by using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM is reported. Three sets of observations showing the relationship between lightning frequency and cloud top height are shown. Zonally averaged lightning frequency observed by satellite are compared with those calculated using the GISS GCM, and fair agreement is found. The change in lightning frequency for a double CO2 climate is calculated and found to be nearly 2.23 x 10 exp 6 extra lightning flashes per day.
There is now a considerable body of theoretical and experimental research that re-lates the prope... more There is now a considerable body of theoretical and experimental research that re-lates the properties of complex dynamical phenomena in nature to those described by network theory [Strogatz, Nature, 2001]. In this context, a network is a system composed of several ...
Tropospheric water vapour is a key element of the Earth's climate, which has direct effec... more Tropospheric water vapour is a key element of the Earth's climate, which has direct effects as a greenhouse gas, as well as indirect effects through interaction with clouds, aerosols and tropospheric chemistry. Small changes in upper-tropospheric water vapour have a much larger impact on the greenhouse effect than small changes in water vapour in the lower atmosphere, but whether this impact is a positive or negative feedback remains uncertain. The main challenge in addressing this question is the difficulty in monitoring upper-tropospheric water vapour globally over long timescales. Here I show that upper-tropospheric water-vapour variability and global lightning activity are closely linked, suggesting that upper-tropospheric water-vapour changes can be inferred from records of global lightning activity, readily obtained from observations at a single location on the Earth's surface. This correlation reflects the fact that continental deep-convective thunderstorms transport large amounts of water vapour into the upper troposphere and thereby dominate the variations of global upper-tropospheric water vapour while producing most of the lightning on Earth. As global lightning induces Schumann resonances, an electromagnetic phenomenon in the atmosphere that can be observed easily at low cost, monitoring of these resonances might provide a convenient method for tracking upper-tropospheric water-vapour variability and hence contribute to a better understanding of the processes affecting climate change.
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