Reported COVID-19 cases and associated mortality remain low in many sub-Saharan countries relativ... more Reported COVID-19 cases and associated mortality remain low in many sub-Saharan countries relative to global averages, but true impact is difficult to estimate given limitations around surveillance and mortality registration. In Lusaka, Zambia, burial registration and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data during 2020 allow estimation of excess mortality and transmission. Relative to pre-pandemic patterns, we estimate age-dependent mortality increases, totalling 3212 excess deaths (95% CrI: 2104–4591), representing an 18.5% (95% CrI: 13.0–25.2%) increase relative to pre-pandemic levels. Using a dynamical model-based inferential framework, we find that these mortality patterns and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data are in agreement with established COVID-19 severity estimates. Our results support hypotheses that COVID-19 impact in Lusaka during 2020 was consistent with COVID-19 epidemics elsewhere, without requiring exceptional explanations for low reported figures. For more equitable decision-making du...
Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective HIV prevention option, but cost-effectiveness is ... more Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective HIV prevention option, but cost-effectiveness is sensitive to implementation and program costs. Studies indicate that, in addition to direct delivery cost, PrEP provision requires substantial demand creation and client support to encourage PrEP initiation and persistence. We estimated the cost of providing PrEP in Zambia through different PrEP delivery models. Taking a guidelines-based approach for visits, labs and drugs, we estimated the annual cost of providing PrEP per client for five delivery models: one focused on key populations (men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) and female sex workers (FSW), one on adolescent girls and young women (AGYW), and three integrated programs (operated within HIV counselling and testing services at primary healthcare centres). Program start-up and support costs were based on program expenditure data and number of PrEP sites and clients in 2018. PrEP clinic visit costs were based on micro-costing at two Pr...
Pediatric human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection remains an important public health issue i... more Pediatric human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection remains an important public health issue in resource-limited settings. In 2015, 1.4 million children aged 50% decline. The most common challenges for access to testing for early infant diagnosis included difficulties in specimen transport, long turnaround time between specimen collection and receipt of results, and limitations in supply chain management. Further reductions in HIV mortality in children can be achieved through continued expansion and improvement of services for early infant diagnosis in PEPFAR-supported countries, including initiatives targeted to reach HIV-exposed infants, ensure access to programs for early infant diagnosis of HIV, and facilitate prompt linkage to treatment for children diagnosed with HIV infection
which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the origin... more which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Objective. We estimated time to initiation, outpatient resource use, and costs of outpatient care during the 6 months prior to ART initiation for HIV-infected pediatric patients in Zambia.Methods. We enrolled 1,102 children who initiated ART at <15 years of age between 2006 and 2011 at 5 study sites. Of these, 832 initiated ART ≤6 months after first presenting to care at the study sites. Data on time in care and resources utilized during the 6 months prior to ART initiation were extracted from patient medical records. Costs were estimated from the provider’s perspective and are reported in 2011 USD. Results. For the patients who initiated ART ≤6 months after presenting to care, median age at presentation to care was 3.9 years; median CD4 percentage was 13%. Median time to ART initiation was 26 days. Patients made, on average, 2.38 clinic visits prior to ART ...
Background: There are few published estimates of the cost of pediatric antiretroviral therapy (AR... more Background: There are few published estimates of the cost of pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa. Our objective was to estimate the outpatient cost of providing ART to children remaining in care at six public sector clinics in Zambia during the first three years after ART initiation, stratified by service delivery site and time on treatment.
Background About 13 years since the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for children liv... more Background About 13 years since the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for children living with HIV (CLHIV) in Zambia, HIV/AIDS testing and treatment guidelines for children have evolved over the years with limited documentation of long-term trends in the numbers testing HIV positive and initiating ART. We examined trends in HIV testing and ART initiation in Zambia. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study using routinely collected patient level data from 496 health facilities across Zambia. We used Poisson regression to derive incident rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for background characteristics and used a Cuzick non-parametric test for trends to test the 13-year trends. Median time from testing to ART initiation in days and incidence rates were derived using life tables in survival analysis. We used multi-level random effects Poisson regression model to determine variations in time from HIV testing to ART initiation by facility. Results Overa...
Reported COVID-19 cases and associated mortality remain low in many sub-Saharan countries relativ... more Reported COVID-19 cases and associated mortality remain low in many sub-Saharan countries relative to global averages, but true impact is difficult to estimate given limitations around surveillance and mortality registration. In Lusaka, Zambia, burial registration and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data during 2020 allow estimation of excess mortality and transmission. Relative to pre-pandemic patterns, we estimate age-dependent mortality increases, totalling 3212 excess deaths (95% CrI: 2104–4591), representing an 18.5% (95% CrI: 13.0–25.2%) increase relative to pre-pandemic levels. Using a dynamical model-based inferential framework, we find that these mortality patterns and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data are in agreement with established COVID-19 severity estimates. Our results support hypotheses that COVID-19 impact in Lusaka during 2020 was consistent with COVID-19 epidemics elsewhere, without requiring exceptional explanations for low reported figures. For more equitable decision-making du...
Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective HIV prevention option, but cost-effectiveness is ... more Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective HIV prevention option, but cost-effectiveness is sensitive to implementation and program costs. Studies indicate that, in addition to direct delivery cost, PrEP provision requires substantial demand creation and client support to encourage PrEP initiation and persistence. We estimated the cost of providing PrEP in Zambia through different PrEP delivery models. Taking a guidelines-based approach for visits, labs and drugs, we estimated the annual cost of providing PrEP per client for five delivery models: one focused on key populations (men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) and female sex workers (FSW), one on adolescent girls and young women (AGYW), and three integrated programs (operated within HIV counselling and testing services at primary healthcare centres). Program start-up and support costs were based on program expenditure data and number of PrEP sites and clients in 2018. PrEP clinic visit costs were based on micro-costing at two Pr...
Pediatric human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection remains an important public health issue i... more Pediatric human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection remains an important public health issue in resource-limited settings. In 2015, 1.4 million children aged 50% decline. The most common challenges for access to testing for early infant diagnosis included difficulties in specimen transport, long turnaround time between specimen collection and receipt of results, and limitations in supply chain management. Further reductions in HIV mortality in children can be achieved through continued expansion and improvement of services for early infant diagnosis in PEPFAR-supported countries, including initiatives targeted to reach HIV-exposed infants, ensure access to programs for early infant diagnosis of HIV, and facilitate prompt linkage to treatment for children diagnosed with HIV infection
which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the origin... more which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Objective. We estimated time to initiation, outpatient resource use, and costs of outpatient care during the 6 months prior to ART initiation for HIV-infected pediatric patients in Zambia.Methods. We enrolled 1,102 children who initiated ART at <15 years of age between 2006 and 2011 at 5 study sites. Of these, 832 initiated ART ≤6 months after first presenting to care at the study sites. Data on time in care and resources utilized during the 6 months prior to ART initiation were extracted from patient medical records. Costs were estimated from the provider’s perspective and are reported in 2011 USD. Results. For the patients who initiated ART ≤6 months after presenting to care, median age at presentation to care was 3.9 years; median CD4 percentage was 13%. Median time to ART initiation was 26 days. Patients made, on average, 2.38 clinic visits prior to ART ...
Background: There are few published estimates of the cost of pediatric antiretroviral therapy (AR... more Background: There are few published estimates of the cost of pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa. Our objective was to estimate the outpatient cost of providing ART to children remaining in care at six public sector clinics in Zambia during the first three years after ART initiation, stratified by service delivery site and time on treatment.
Background About 13 years since the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for children liv... more Background About 13 years since the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for children living with HIV (CLHIV) in Zambia, HIV/AIDS testing and treatment guidelines for children have evolved over the years with limited documentation of long-term trends in the numbers testing HIV positive and initiating ART. We examined trends in HIV testing and ART initiation in Zambia. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study using routinely collected patient level data from 496 health facilities across Zambia. We used Poisson regression to derive incident rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for background characteristics and used a Cuzick non-parametric test for trends to test the 13-year trends. Median time from testing to ART initiation in days and incidence rates were derived using life tables in survival analysis. We used multi-level random effects Poisson regression model to determine variations in time from HIV testing to ART initiation by facility. Results Overa...
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