以米浪沟湾地层剖面作为萨拉乌苏河流域的典型剖面,探讨了150 ka B.P.以来的CaCO3含量分布与气候变化的关系。1)该剖面CaCO3含量及其低-高变化同古风成沙与上覆河湖相或古土壤构成的沉... more 以米浪沟湾地层剖面作为萨拉乌苏河流域的典型剖面,探讨了150 ka B.P.以来的CaCO3含量分布与气候变化的关系。1)该剖面CaCO3含量及其低-高变化同古风成沙与上覆河湖相或古土壤构成的沉积旋回呈现出明显的对应关系。与米浪沟湾剖面的沉积旋回一样,CaCO3在分布上相应地构成了27个含量高低变化旋回。2)CaCO3在风成沙中含量的分布比较稀散,0.8%~7.18%,平均值2.50%;在河湖相和古土壤中相对富集,2.20%~14.90%。平均值5.74%。从而揭示出其时两者的气候背景是不同的,前者是干旱寒冷气候作用下的风力的侵蚀、搬运与堆积的产物;而后者则与暖湿气候环境下萨拉乌苏河流域地处鄂尔多斯高原和黄土高原之间特殊的低洼地貌位置有关。气候暖湿,河湖沼泽发育、成土成壤作用增强,低洼的集水条件有利于CaCO3的聚集。3)导致米浪沟湾剖面CaCO3的多旋回相对稀散与聚集的根本原因可能是150 ka B.P.以来北半球冰期-间冰期气候波动影响下毛乌素沙漠冬夏季风的多次更迭所致。
Quantitative research on climate change and war hot spots throughout history is lacking. In this ... more Quantitative research on climate change and war hot spots throughout history is lacking. In this study, the spatial distribution and dynamic process of war hot spots under different climatic phases in imperial China (1–1911 CE) are revealed using Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (EHSA), based on the Global Moran’s Index for testing the degree of spatial autocorrelation or dependency. The results show that: (1) Battles were significantly clustered regardless of any climatic mode or war category. (2) Hot spots for all war were generally located in the Loess Plateau and the North China Plain during warm and wet periods, but in the Central Plain, the Jianghuai region, and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River/Yangtze River Delta during cold and dry conditions. (3) Hot spots for agri-nomadic conflict have similar patterns as those for all war, whereas rebellion hot spots expanded outward during warm and wet intervals yet contracted inward during cold and dry stages. These findings, by providi...
Recent paleo-climatic/environmental studies have resulted in several high-resolution paleo-precip... more Recent paleo-climatic/environmental studies have resulted in several high-resolution paleo-precipitation/moisture reconstructions in Northwestern (NW) China over extended periods. Nevertheless, those reconstructions are mostly about the climatic history of individual sites, while fine-grained portrayal and analysis of the geographic extent of drought anomalies across the entire NW China are still missing. We based our study on the dryness/wetness grade series of 19 sites in NW China, which are primarily derived from historical documents, to reconstruct the annual geographic extent of drought anomalies in NW China in AD 1470–2008. Our reconstruction reveals the following periods of drought in NW China: the AD 1470s–1490s, 1620s–1640s, 1700s–1720s, 1770s–1790s, 1860s–1870s, and 1910s–1930s. The most extremely dry years were AD 1928 and 1929. In addition, we found that the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the geographic extent of drought anomalies in NW China was non...
Page 1. 255 Introduction Past research using the paradigm of historical particularism has tende... more Page 1. 255 Introduction Past research using the paradigm of historical particularism has tended to reduce the fundamental causes of warfare to various economic, political, or ethnic sources. Webster (1975), using Darwin's ...
ABSTRACT Wars became more frequent in a cold climate at the macro-historical scale. However, war ... more ABSTRACT Wars became more frequent in a cold climate at the macro-historical scale. However, war peaks and their associated population collapses appeared ~20–30 years after the commencement of a cold climate. Following Zhang et al.'s (2007a) conceptual model, this paper sought to further examine the climate-war-population time lag by using mathematical means. Result was: the relatively slow natural population adjustment to the climate-induced fluctuations in agricultural production generated the time lag between the climate, war, and population cycles in historical agrarian societies. This finding may lend a new dimension to the classic Malthusianism and have current implications to the less developed countries near the tropics.
Concerning the ecological and economical importance of the Pearl River basin, short-term climate ... more Concerning the ecological and economical importance of the Pearl River basin, short-term climate changes have been widely studied by using the instrumental records in the basin, but there is still a lack of long-term climatic reconstructions that can be used to evaluate the centennial scale climate anomalies. Here, we present a 237-year tree-ring width chronology from Tsuga longibracteata in the north-central Pearl River basin, with reliable coverage from 1824 to 2016. Based on the significant relationship between tree growth and mean temperature from the previous March to the previous October, we reconstructed the previous growing season (pMar-pOct) temperatures for the past 193 years, with an explained variance of 43.3% during 1958–2016. The reconstruction reveals three major warm (1857–1890, 1964–1976, and 1992–2016) and cold (1824–1856, 1891–1963, and 1977–1991) periods during 1824–2016. Comparison with other temperature sensitive proxy records from nearby regions suggests that ...
A particular river-whiting phenomenon occurred in the early 2000s in the Xiaoche River and since ... more A particular river-whiting phenomenon occurred in the early 2000s in the Xiaoche River and since then it has been reoccurring from June to November each year. Residents were surprised by this phenomenon and worried about it. This study was designed to reveal the forming mechanism of the river-whiting phenomenon. A comparison of T, EC, ORP, DO, TDS and δ34S in the culvert water and discharge pipe water with that in the water column of Aha Reservoir strongly indicated that the culvert water and discharge pipe water derived primarily from the hypolimnetic reservoir water. When the hypolimnetic water enriched in SO42- and H2S, through seepage from the penstock, flows into the Xiaoche River, the water's supersaturation degree with respect to CaSO4 is increased as a result of increased temperature and DO, thus colloid CaSO4 can be formed. This is the essential cause of the river-whiting phenomenon. The sources of high concentrations of SO42- and H2S in hypolimnetic water include not o...
We investigated the mechanism of epidemics with the impacts of climate change and socio-economic ... more We investigated the mechanism of epidemics with the impacts of climate change and socio-economic fluctuations in the Ming and Qing Dynasties in China (AD 1368-1901). Using long-term and high-quality datasets, this study is the first quantitative research that verifies the 'climate change → economy → epidemics' mechanism in historical China by statistical methods that include correlation analysis, Granger causality analysis, ARX, and Poisson-ARX modeling. The analysis provides the evidences that climate change could only fundamentally lead to the epidemics spread and occurrence, but the depressed economic well-being is the direct trigger of epidemics spread and occurrence at the national and long term scale in historical China. Moreover, statistical modeling shows that economic well-being is more important than population pressure in the mechanism of epidemics. However, population pressure remains a key element in determining the social vulnerability of the epidemics occurren...
以米浪沟湾地层剖面作为萨拉乌苏河流域的典型剖面,探讨了150 ka B.P.以来的CaCO3含量分布与气候变化的关系。1)该剖面CaCO3含量及其低-高变化同古风成沙与上覆河湖相或古土壤构成的沉... more 以米浪沟湾地层剖面作为萨拉乌苏河流域的典型剖面,探讨了150 ka B.P.以来的CaCO3含量分布与气候变化的关系。1)该剖面CaCO3含量及其低-高变化同古风成沙与上覆河湖相或古土壤构成的沉积旋回呈现出明显的对应关系。与米浪沟湾剖面的沉积旋回一样,CaCO3在分布上相应地构成了27个含量高低变化旋回。2)CaCO3在风成沙中含量的分布比较稀散,0.8%~7.18%,平均值2.50%;在河湖相和古土壤中相对富集,2.20%~14.90%。平均值5.74%。从而揭示出其时两者的气候背景是不同的,前者是干旱寒冷气候作用下的风力的侵蚀、搬运与堆积的产物;而后者则与暖湿气候环境下萨拉乌苏河流域地处鄂尔多斯高原和黄土高原之间特殊的低洼地貌位置有关。气候暖湿,河湖沼泽发育、成土成壤作用增强,低洼的集水条件有利于CaCO3的聚集。3)导致米浪沟湾剖面CaCO3的多旋回相对稀散与聚集的根本原因可能是150 ka B.P.以来北半球冰期-间冰期气候波动影响下毛乌素沙漠冬夏季风的多次更迭所致。
Quantitative research on climate change and war hot spots throughout history is lacking. In this ... more Quantitative research on climate change and war hot spots throughout history is lacking. In this study, the spatial distribution and dynamic process of war hot spots under different climatic phases in imperial China (1–1911 CE) are revealed using Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (EHSA), based on the Global Moran’s Index for testing the degree of spatial autocorrelation or dependency. The results show that: (1) Battles were significantly clustered regardless of any climatic mode or war category. (2) Hot spots for all war were generally located in the Loess Plateau and the North China Plain during warm and wet periods, but in the Central Plain, the Jianghuai region, and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River/Yangtze River Delta during cold and dry conditions. (3) Hot spots for agri-nomadic conflict have similar patterns as those for all war, whereas rebellion hot spots expanded outward during warm and wet intervals yet contracted inward during cold and dry stages. These findings, by providi...
Recent paleo-climatic/environmental studies have resulted in several high-resolution paleo-precip... more Recent paleo-climatic/environmental studies have resulted in several high-resolution paleo-precipitation/moisture reconstructions in Northwestern (NW) China over extended periods. Nevertheless, those reconstructions are mostly about the climatic history of individual sites, while fine-grained portrayal and analysis of the geographic extent of drought anomalies across the entire NW China are still missing. We based our study on the dryness/wetness grade series of 19 sites in NW China, which are primarily derived from historical documents, to reconstruct the annual geographic extent of drought anomalies in NW China in AD 1470–2008. Our reconstruction reveals the following periods of drought in NW China: the AD 1470s–1490s, 1620s–1640s, 1700s–1720s, 1770s–1790s, 1860s–1870s, and 1910s–1930s. The most extremely dry years were AD 1928 and 1929. In addition, we found that the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the geographic extent of drought anomalies in NW China was non...
Page 1. 255 Introduction Past research using the paradigm of historical particularism has tende... more Page 1. 255 Introduction Past research using the paradigm of historical particularism has tended to reduce the fundamental causes of warfare to various economic, political, or ethnic sources. Webster (1975), using Darwin's ...
ABSTRACT Wars became more frequent in a cold climate at the macro-historical scale. However, war ... more ABSTRACT Wars became more frequent in a cold climate at the macro-historical scale. However, war peaks and their associated population collapses appeared ~20–30 years after the commencement of a cold climate. Following Zhang et al.'s (2007a) conceptual model, this paper sought to further examine the climate-war-population time lag by using mathematical means. Result was: the relatively slow natural population adjustment to the climate-induced fluctuations in agricultural production generated the time lag between the climate, war, and population cycles in historical agrarian societies. This finding may lend a new dimension to the classic Malthusianism and have current implications to the less developed countries near the tropics.
Concerning the ecological and economical importance of the Pearl River basin, short-term climate ... more Concerning the ecological and economical importance of the Pearl River basin, short-term climate changes have been widely studied by using the instrumental records in the basin, but there is still a lack of long-term climatic reconstructions that can be used to evaluate the centennial scale climate anomalies. Here, we present a 237-year tree-ring width chronology from Tsuga longibracteata in the north-central Pearl River basin, with reliable coverage from 1824 to 2016. Based on the significant relationship between tree growth and mean temperature from the previous March to the previous October, we reconstructed the previous growing season (pMar-pOct) temperatures for the past 193 years, with an explained variance of 43.3% during 1958–2016. The reconstruction reveals three major warm (1857–1890, 1964–1976, and 1992–2016) and cold (1824–1856, 1891–1963, and 1977–1991) periods during 1824–2016. Comparison with other temperature sensitive proxy records from nearby regions suggests that ...
A particular river-whiting phenomenon occurred in the early 2000s in the Xiaoche River and since ... more A particular river-whiting phenomenon occurred in the early 2000s in the Xiaoche River and since then it has been reoccurring from June to November each year. Residents were surprised by this phenomenon and worried about it. This study was designed to reveal the forming mechanism of the river-whiting phenomenon. A comparison of T, EC, ORP, DO, TDS and δ34S in the culvert water and discharge pipe water with that in the water column of Aha Reservoir strongly indicated that the culvert water and discharge pipe water derived primarily from the hypolimnetic reservoir water. When the hypolimnetic water enriched in SO42- and H2S, through seepage from the penstock, flows into the Xiaoche River, the water's supersaturation degree with respect to CaSO4 is increased as a result of increased temperature and DO, thus colloid CaSO4 can be formed. This is the essential cause of the river-whiting phenomenon. The sources of high concentrations of SO42- and H2S in hypolimnetic water include not o...
We investigated the mechanism of epidemics with the impacts of climate change and socio-economic ... more We investigated the mechanism of epidemics with the impacts of climate change and socio-economic fluctuations in the Ming and Qing Dynasties in China (AD 1368-1901). Using long-term and high-quality datasets, this study is the first quantitative research that verifies the 'climate change → economy → epidemics' mechanism in historical China by statistical methods that include correlation analysis, Granger causality analysis, ARX, and Poisson-ARX modeling. The analysis provides the evidences that climate change could only fundamentally lead to the epidemics spread and occurrence, but the depressed economic well-being is the direct trigger of epidemics spread and occurrence at the national and long term scale in historical China. Moreover, statistical modeling shows that economic well-being is more important than population pressure in the mechanism of epidemics. However, population pressure remains a key element in determining the social vulnerability of the epidemics occurren...
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