Abstract Raising capital adequacy standards and introducing binding liquidity requirements can ha... more Abstract Raising capital adequacy standards and introducing binding liquidity requirements can have beneficial effects if they reduce the probability of a costly financial crisis, but may also reduce GDP by raising borrowing costs for households and companies. In this paper, ...
ABSTRACT This paper considers the evidence that has been collected on the determinants and effect... more ABSTRACT This paper considers the evidence that has been collected on the determinants and effects of FDI in Central and Eastern Europe, with a strong focus on Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic. There are two main sources from which we draw information: survey studies and econometric studies. We consider how each of these can contribute to the field of research, whether they give us complementary or contradictory information, and how this information can best be exploited. We conclude that the findings of econometric studies tend to support survey results. This suggests that market seeking has been the primary motive of investors, and that the presence of foreign firms has increased productivity levels in Central Europe, but only to a limited degree. An earlier version of this paper was presented at a workshop at WIFO, Vienna. We are grateful to Ray Barrell, Nigel Pain, Michael Pfaffermayr, Jan Stankovsky and other workshop participants for helpful comments and suggestions. We would also like to thank Andrea Elteto and Tamas Szemler for their contributions to the study of Hungary; Jan Visek for contributing to the study of the Czech Republic; Ray Barrell and Nigel Pain for important contributions to and extensive comments on earlier drafts of the paper; and Florence Hubert for helpful advice regarding the theoretical foundations of FDI. This work was supported by an ACE grant from the European Commission (project number P96-6086-R).
ABSTRACT This paper analyses current policy choices facing the candidate countries for EU accessi... more ABSTRACT This paper analyses current policy choices facing the candidate countries for EU accession using newly developed econometric macromodels of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Estonia. The models allow for endogenous growth, and they have been incorporated into an existing global econometric model (NiGEM). This allows long-term projections to be made consistently with expected developments in other economies and allows full feedbacks with the rest of the world so that we can understand impacts on existing EU members as well as the candidate countries. This paper has several novel features, in that we use modern panel data techniques on short time series data in order to construct models of a number of economies. In constructing the models, we have taken special care to consider the roles of openness and foreign investment on productivity and growth. Different policies toward growth and the enhancement of technology transfer are analysed using the models, and policy advice on the accession and integration are made.
... 1 Ray Barrell, Dawn Holland, Iana Liadze and Olga Pomerantz National Institute of Economic an... more ... 1 Ray Barrell, Dawn Holland, Iana Liadze and Olga Pomerantz National Institute of Economic and Social Research ... We would like to thank Martin Weale, Stephen Hall, Kevin Lee, Ron Smith and Hashem Pesaran for comments, and the participants for a useful discussion. ...
Output growth in the Euro Area has been disappointing since the formation of EMU. This may be the... more Output growth in the Euro Area has been disappointing since the formation of EMU. This may be the consequence of the new monetary and exchange rate arrangements, but it is necessary to remove the effects of other factors such as the growth of labour input, skills, knowledge and risk premia. This paper undertakes a growth accounting exercises and an econometric
Large scale macro-econometric models have been changing over the last two decades, and they have ... more Large scale macro-econometric models have been changing over the last two decades, and they have been increasingly designed to investigate medium term problems associated with the determinants of growth and the design of policy regimes. Macro- models were constructed for forecasting purposes, and many forecasters have begun to realise that knowing both the medium term prospects for the economy and the structure of the underlying equilibrium helps improve contributions to the conjunctural debate. Many models are now firmly grounded in economic theory, with strong New-Keynesian influences being the most common. The underlying structure determines the level of output and the trajectory for prices, with equilibrium correction mechanisms pulling the economy toward its long run, albeit slowly. This paper looks at the National Institute global model, NiGEM, a rational expectations New Keynesian model with a strong basis in estimation. The model has been widely used in forecasting and policy analysis, and is being continually developed. Much recent research has gone into improving the supply side of the model. The underlying level and growth of output determine capacity and capacity utilisation, and hence impinges on both forecasts and the use of the model for policy analysis. Well- specified models are homogenous in prices and allow economists to investigate the determination of the price level and of relative prices. Models need to answer question such as what are the implications of the fall in the euro against the dollar, and this is discussed in order to throw light on the properties of the models. The issues of forward-looking consumption and dynamic properties are addressed, as they form a part of the ongoing agenda of research.
Abstract Raising capital adequacy standards and introducing binding liquidity requirements can ha... more Abstract Raising capital adequacy standards and introducing binding liquidity requirements can have beneficial effects if they reduce the probability of a costly financial crisis, but may also reduce GDP by raising borrowing costs for households and companies. In this paper, ...
ABSTRACT This paper considers the evidence that has been collected on the determinants and effect... more ABSTRACT This paper considers the evidence that has been collected on the determinants and effects of FDI in Central and Eastern Europe, with a strong focus on Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic. There are two main sources from which we draw information: survey studies and econometric studies. We consider how each of these can contribute to the field of research, whether they give us complementary or contradictory information, and how this information can best be exploited. We conclude that the findings of econometric studies tend to support survey results. This suggests that market seeking has been the primary motive of investors, and that the presence of foreign firms has increased productivity levels in Central Europe, but only to a limited degree. An earlier version of this paper was presented at a workshop at WIFO, Vienna. We are grateful to Ray Barrell, Nigel Pain, Michael Pfaffermayr, Jan Stankovsky and other workshop participants for helpful comments and suggestions. We would also like to thank Andrea Elteto and Tamas Szemler for their contributions to the study of Hungary; Jan Visek for contributing to the study of the Czech Republic; Ray Barrell and Nigel Pain for important contributions to and extensive comments on earlier drafts of the paper; and Florence Hubert for helpful advice regarding the theoretical foundations of FDI. This work was supported by an ACE grant from the European Commission (project number P96-6086-R).
ABSTRACT This paper analyses current policy choices facing the candidate countries for EU accessi... more ABSTRACT This paper analyses current policy choices facing the candidate countries for EU accession using newly developed econometric macromodels of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Estonia. The models allow for endogenous growth, and they have been incorporated into an existing global econometric model (NiGEM). This allows long-term projections to be made consistently with expected developments in other economies and allows full feedbacks with the rest of the world so that we can understand impacts on existing EU members as well as the candidate countries. This paper has several novel features, in that we use modern panel data techniques on short time series data in order to construct models of a number of economies. In constructing the models, we have taken special care to consider the roles of openness and foreign investment on productivity and growth. Different policies toward growth and the enhancement of technology transfer are analysed using the models, and policy advice on the accession and integration are made.
... 1 Ray Barrell, Dawn Holland, Iana Liadze and Olga Pomerantz National Institute of Economic an... more ... 1 Ray Barrell, Dawn Holland, Iana Liadze and Olga Pomerantz National Institute of Economic and Social Research ... We would like to thank Martin Weale, Stephen Hall, Kevin Lee, Ron Smith and Hashem Pesaran for comments, and the participants for a useful discussion. ...
Output growth in the Euro Area has been disappointing since the formation of EMU. This may be the... more Output growth in the Euro Area has been disappointing since the formation of EMU. This may be the consequence of the new monetary and exchange rate arrangements, but it is necessary to remove the effects of other factors such as the growth of labour input, skills, knowledge and risk premia. This paper undertakes a growth accounting exercises and an econometric
Large scale macro-econometric models have been changing over the last two decades, and they have ... more Large scale macro-econometric models have been changing over the last two decades, and they have been increasingly designed to investigate medium term problems associated with the determinants of growth and the design of policy regimes. Macro- models were constructed for forecasting purposes, and many forecasters have begun to realise that knowing both the medium term prospects for the economy and the structure of the underlying equilibrium helps improve contributions to the conjunctural debate. Many models are now firmly grounded in economic theory, with strong New-Keynesian influences being the most common. The underlying structure determines the level of output and the trajectory for prices, with equilibrium correction mechanisms pulling the economy toward its long run, albeit slowly. This paper looks at the National Institute global model, NiGEM, a rational expectations New Keynesian model with a strong basis in estimation. The model has been widely used in forecasting and policy analysis, and is being continually developed. Much recent research has gone into improving the supply side of the model. The underlying level and growth of output determine capacity and capacity utilisation, and hence impinges on both forecasts and the use of the model for policy analysis. Well- specified models are homogenous in prices and allow economists to investigate the determination of the price level and of relative prices. Models need to answer question such as what are the implications of the fall in the euro against the dollar, and this is discussed in order to throw light on the properties of the models. The issues of forward-looking consumption and dynamic properties are addressed, as they form a part of the ongoing agenda of research.
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Papers by Dawn Holland