We discuss a Bayesian approach to the analysis of radial velocities in planet searches. We use a ... more We discuss a Bayesian approach to the analysis of radial velocities in planet searches. We use a combination of exact and approximate analytic and numerical techniques to efficiently evaluate chi-squared for multiple values of orbital parameters, and to carry out the marginalization integrals for a single planet including the possibility of a long term trend. The result is a robust algorithm that is rapid enough for use in real time analysis that outputs constraints on orbital parameters and false alarm probabilities for the planet and long term trend. The constraints on parameters and odds ratio that we derive compare well with previous calculations based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and we compare our results with other techniques for estimating false alarm probabilities and errors in derived orbital parameters. False alarm probabilities from the Bayesian analysis are systematically higher than frequentist false alarm probabilities, due to the different accounting of the number of trials. We show that upper limits on the velocity amplitude derived for circular orbits are a good estimate of the upper limit on the amplitude of eccentric orbits for eccentricities less than about 0.5.
Monthly Notices of The Royal Astronomical Society, 2010
We discuss a Bayesian approach to the analysis of radial velocities in planet searches. We use a ... more We discuss a Bayesian approach to the analysis of radial velocities in planet searches. We use a combination of exact and approximate analytic and numerical techniques to efficiently evaluate χ2 for multiple values of orbital parameters, and to carry out the marginalization integrals for a single planet including the possibility of a long-term trend. The result is a robust algorithm that is rapid enough for use in real-time analysis that outputs constraints on orbital parameters and false-alarm probabilities for the planet and long-term trend. The constraints on parameters and odds ratio that we derive compare well with previous calculations based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and we compare our results with other techniques for estimating false-alarm probabilities and errors in derived orbital parameters. False-alarm probabilities from the Bayesian analysis are systematically higher than frequentist false-alarm probabilities, due to the different accounting of the number of trials. We show that upper limits on the velocity amplitude derived for circular orbits are a good estimate of the upper limit on the amplitude of eccentric orbits for e≲ 0.5.
Previous work statistically identified 5492 optical counterparts, with approximately 90% confiden... more Previous work statistically identified 5492 optical counterparts, with approximately 90% confidence, from among the approximately 18,000 X-ray sources appearing in the ROSAT All-Sky Survey Bright Source Catalog (RASS/BSC). Using low resolution spectra in the wavelength range 3700-7900 angstroms, we present spectroscopic classifications for 195 of these counterparts which have not previously been classified. Of these 195, we find 168 individual stars of F, G, K or M type, 6 individual stars of unknown type, 6 double stars, 6 AGN or galaxies and 7 unclassifiable objects; the spectra of the 2 remaining objects were saturated.
... N. WINN 1, JAYMIE M. MATTHEWS 2, REBEKAH I. DAWSON 3 , DANIEL FABRYCKY 4,5 ,MATTHEW J. HOLMAN... more ... N. WINN 1, JAYMIE M. MATTHEWS 2, REBEKAH I. DAWSON 3 , DANIEL FABRYCKY 4,5 ,MATTHEW J. HOLMAN 3, THOMAS KALLINGER 2,6, RAINER KUSCHNIG 6, DIMITAR SASSELOV 3, DIANA DRAGOMIR 5, DAVID B. GUENTHER 7, ANTHONY FJ MOFFAT 8 , JASON ...
Transiting planet discoveries have yielded a plethora of information regarding the internal struc... more Transiting planet discoveries have yielded a plethora of information regarding the internal structure and atmospheres of extra-solar planets. These discoveries have largely been restricted to the low-periastron distance regime due to the bias inherent in the geometric transit probability. Monitoring known radial velocity planets at predicted transit times is a proven method of detecting transits, and presents an avenue through which to explore the mass-radius relationship of exoplanets in new regions of period/periastron space for the brightest exoplanet host stars. Here we describe transit window calculations for known radial velocity planets, techniques for refining their transit ephemerides, and present results for radial velocity planets which have been successfully monitored during predicted transit times. These methods are currently being implemented by the Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey (TERMS).
HD 156846b is a Jovian planet in a highly eccentric orbit (e = 0.85) with a period of 359.55 days... more HD 156846b is a Jovian planet in a highly eccentric orbit (e = 0.85) with a period of 359.55 days. The pericenter passage at a distance of 0.16 AU is nearly aligned to our line of sight, offering an enhanced transit probability of 5.4% and a potentially rich probe of the dynamics of a cool planetary atmosphere impulsively heated during close approach to a bright star (V = 6.5). We present new radial velocity (RV) and photometric measurements of this star as part of the Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey (TERMS). The RV measurements from Keck-HIRES reduce the predicted transit time uncertainty to 20 minutes, an order of magnitude improvement over the ephemeris from the discovery paper. We photometrically monitored a predicted transit window under relatively poor photometric conditions, from which our non-detection does not rule out a transiting geometry. We also present photometry that demonstrates stability at the millimag level over its rotational timescale.
The Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey (TERMS) conducts radial velocity and photo... more The Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey (TERMS) conducts radial velocity and photometric monitoring of known exoplanets in order to refine planetary orbits and predictions of possible transit times. This effort is primarily directed towards planets not known to transit, but a small sample of our targets consist of known transiting systems. Here we present precision photometry for 6 WASP planets acquired during their transit windows. We perform a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis for each planet and combine these data with previous measurements to redetermine the period and ephemerides for these planets. These observations provide recent mid-transit times which are useful for scheduling future observations. Our results improve the ephemerides of WASP-4b, WASP-5b and WASP-6b and reduce the uncertainties on the mid-transit time for WASP-29b. We also confirm the orbital, stellar and planetary parameters of all 6 systems.
Transiting planets around bright stars have allowed the detailed follow-up and characterization o... more Transiting planets around bright stars have allowed the detailed follow-up and characterization of exoplanets, such as the study of exoplanetary atmospheres. The Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey is refining the orbits of the known exoplanets to confirm or rule out both transit signatures and the presence of additional companions. Here we present results for the companion orbiting HD 114762 in an eccentric 84 day orbit. Radial velocity analysis performed on 19 years of Lick Observatory data constrain the uncertainty in the predicted time of mid-transit to ~5 hr, which is less than the predicted one-half day transit duration. We find no evidence of additional companions in this system. New photometric observations with one of our Automated Photoelectric Telescopes at Fairborn Observatory taken during a revised transit time for companion b, along with 23 years of nightly automated observations, allow us to rule out on-time central transits to a limit of ~0.001 mag. Early or late central transits are ruled out to a limit of ~0.002 mag, and transits with half the duration of a central transit are ruled out to a limit of ~0.003 mag.
Characterization of the composition, surface properties, and atmospheric conditions of exoplanets... more Characterization of the composition, surface properties, and atmospheric conditions of exoplanets is a rapidly progressing field as the data to study such aspects become more accessible. Bright targets, such as the multi-planet 55 Cancri system, allow an opportunity to achieve high signal-to-noise for the detection of photometric phase variations to constrain the planetary albedos. The recent discovery that that inner-most planet, 55 Cancri e, transits the host star introduces new prospects for studying this system. Here we calculate photometric phase curves at optical wavelengths for the system with varying assumptions for the surface and atmospheric properties of 55 Cancri e. We show that the large differences in geometric albedo allows one to distinguish between various surface models, that the scattering phase function cannot be constrained with foreseeable data, and that planet b will contribute significantly to the phase variation depending upon the surface of planet e. We discuss detection limits and how these models may be used with future instrumentation to further characterize these planets and distinguish between various assumptions regarding surface conditions.
Characterization of exoplanets has matured in recent years, particularly through studies of exopl... more Characterization of exoplanets has matured in recent years, particularly through studies of exoplanetary atmospheres of transiting planets at infra-red wavelenegths. A relatively unexplored region of exoplanet parameter space is the thermal detection of long-period eccentric planets during periastron passage. Detection of these signatures reveals important information on the albedo, radiative time constant, and heat redistribution efficiency of giant planetary atmospheres under these extreme conditions. Here we propose to monitor three such exoplanets whose orbital parameters have already been refined to great precision. The results of this study will constrain heat signatures from these planets and be used in building atmospheric models for planets which undergo large changes in flux.
The discovery of transiting planets around bright stars holds the potential to greatly enhance ou... more The discovery of transiting planets around bright stars holds the potential to greatly enhance our understanding of planetary atmospheres. In this work we present the search for transits of HD 168443b, a massive planet orbiting the bright star HD 168443 V=6.92 with a period of 58.11 days. The high eccentricity of the planetary orbit e=0.53 significantly enhances the a-priori transit probability beyond that expected for a circular orbit, making HD 168443 a candidate for our ongoing Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey (TERMS). Using additional radial velocities from Keck-HIRES, we refined the orbital parameters of this multi-planet system and derived a new transit ephemeris for HD 168443b. The reduced uncertainties in the transit window make a photometric transit search practicable. Photometric observations acquired during predicted transit windows were obtained on three nights. CTIO 1.0 m photometry acquired on 2010 September 7 had the required precision to detect a transit but fell just outside of our final transit window. Nightly photometry from the T8 0.8 m Automated Photometric Telescope (APT) at Fairborn Observatory, acquired over a span of 109 nights, demonstrates that HD 168443 is constant on a time scale of weeks. Higher-cadence photometry on 2011 April 28 and June 25 shows no evidence of a transit. We are able to rule out a non-grazing transit of HD 168443b.
We discuss a Bayesian approach to the analysis of radial velocities in planet searches. We use a ... more We discuss a Bayesian approach to the analysis of radial velocities in planet searches. We use a combination of exact and approximate analytic and numerical techniques to efficiently evaluate chi-squared for multiple values of orbital parameters, and to carry out the marginalization integrals for a single planet including the possibility of a long term trend. The result is a robust algorithm that is rapid enough for use in real time analysis that outputs constraints on orbital parameters and false alarm probabilities for the planet and long term trend. The constraints on parameters and odds ratio that we derive compare well with previous calculations based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and we compare our results with other techniques for estimating false alarm probabilities and errors in derived orbital parameters. False alarm probabilities from the Bayesian analysis are systematically higher than frequentist false alarm probabilities, due to the different accounting of the number of trials. We show that upper limits on the velocity amplitude derived for circular orbits are a good estimate of the upper limit on the amplitude of eccentric orbits for eccentricities less than about 0.5.
Monthly Notices of The Royal Astronomical Society, 2010
We discuss a Bayesian approach to the analysis of radial velocities in planet searches. We use a ... more We discuss a Bayesian approach to the analysis of radial velocities in planet searches. We use a combination of exact and approximate analytic and numerical techniques to efficiently evaluate χ2 for multiple values of orbital parameters, and to carry out the marginalization integrals for a single planet including the possibility of a long-term trend. The result is a robust algorithm that is rapid enough for use in real-time analysis that outputs constraints on orbital parameters and false-alarm probabilities for the planet and long-term trend. The constraints on parameters and odds ratio that we derive compare well with previous calculations based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and we compare our results with other techniques for estimating false-alarm probabilities and errors in derived orbital parameters. False-alarm probabilities from the Bayesian analysis are systematically higher than frequentist false-alarm probabilities, due to the different accounting of the number of trials. We show that upper limits on the velocity amplitude derived for circular orbits are a good estimate of the upper limit on the amplitude of eccentric orbits for e≲ 0.5.
Previous work statistically identified 5492 optical counterparts, with approximately 90% confiden... more Previous work statistically identified 5492 optical counterparts, with approximately 90% confidence, from among the approximately 18,000 X-ray sources appearing in the ROSAT All-Sky Survey Bright Source Catalog (RASS/BSC). Using low resolution spectra in the wavelength range 3700-7900 angstroms, we present spectroscopic classifications for 195 of these counterparts which have not previously been classified. Of these 195, we find 168 individual stars of F, G, K or M type, 6 individual stars of unknown type, 6 double stars, 6 AGN or galaxies and 7 unclassifiable objects; the spectra of the 2 remaining objects were saturated.
... N. WINN 1, JAYMIE M. MATTHEWS 2, REBEKAH I. DAWSON 3 , DANIEL FABRYCKY 4,5 ,MATTHEW J. HOLMAN... more ... N. WINN 1, JAYMIE M. MATTHEWS 2, REBEKAH I. DAWSON 3 , DANIEL FABRYCKY 4,5 ,MATTHEW J. HOLMAN 3, THOMAS KALLINGER 2,6, RAINER KUSCHNIG 6, DIMITAR SASSELOV 3, DIANA DRAGOMIR 5, DAVID B. GUENTHER 7, ANTHONY FJ MOFFAT 8 , JASON ...
Transiting planet discoveries have yielded a plethora of information regarding the internal struc... more Transiting planet discoveries have yielded a plethora of information regarding the internal structure and atmospheres of extra-solar planets. These discoveries have largely been restricted to the low-periastron distance regime due to the bias inherent in the geometric transit probability. Monitoring known radial velocity planets at predicted transit times is a proven method of detecting transits, and presents an avenue through which to explore the mass-radius relationship of exoplanets in new regions of period/periastron space for the brightest exoplanet host stars. Here we describe transit window calculations for known radial velocity planets, techniques for refining their transit ephemerides, and present results for radial velocity planets which have been successfully monitored during predicted transit times. These methods are currently being implemented by the Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey (TERMS).
HD 156846b is a Jovian planet in a highly eccentric orbit (e = 0.85) with a period of 359.55 days... more HD 156846b is a Jovian planet in a highly eccentric orbit (e = 0.85) with a period of 359.55 days. The pericenter passage at a distance of 0.16 AU is nearly aligned to our line of sight, offering an enhanced transit probability of 5.4% and a potentially rich probe of the dynamics of a cool planetary atmosphere impulsively heated during close approach to a bright star (V = 6.5). We present new radial velocity (RV) and photometric measurements of this star as part of the Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey (TERMS). The RV measurements from Keck-HIRES reduce the predicted transit time uncertainty to 20 minutes, an order of magnitude improvement over the ephemeris from the discovery paper. We photometrically monitored a predicted transit window under relatively poor photometric conditions, from which our non-detection does not rule out a transiting geometry. We also present photometry that demonstrates stability at the millimag level over its rotational timescale.
The Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey (TERMS) conducts radial velocity and photo... more The Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey (TERMS) conducts radial velocity and photometric monitoring of known exoplanets in order to refine planetary orbits and predictions of possible transit times. This effort is primarily directed towards planets not known to transit, but a small sample of our targets consist of known transiting systems. Here we present precision photometry for 6 WASP planets acquired during their transit windows. We perform a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis for each planet and combine these data with previous measurements to redetermine the period and ephemerides for these planets. These observations provide recent mid-transit times which are useful for scheduling future observations. Our results improve the ephemerides of WASP-4b, WASP-5b and WASP-6b and reduce the uncertainties on the mid-transit time for WASP-29b. We also confirm the orbital, stellar and planetary parameters of all 6 systems.
Transiting planets around bright stars have allowed the detailed follow-up and characterization o... more Transiting planets around bright stars have allowed the detailed follow-up and characterization of exoplanets, such as the study of exoplanetary atmospheres. The Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey is refining the orbits of the known exoplanets to confirm or rule out both transit signatures and the presence of additional companions. Here we present results for the companion orbiting HD 114762 in an eccentric 84 day orbit. Radial velocity analysis performed on 19 years of Lick Observatory data constrain the uncertainty in the predicted time of mid-transit to ~5 hr, which is less than the predicted one-half day transit duration. We find no evidence of additional companions in this system. New photometric observations with one of our Automated Photoelectric Telescopes at Fairborn Observatory taken during a revised transit time for companion b, along with 23 years of nightly automated observations, allow us to rule out on-time central transits to a limit of ~0.001 mag. Early or late central transits are ruled out to a limit of ~0.002 mag, and transits with half the duration of a central transit are ruled out to a limit of ~0.003 mag.
Characterization of the composition, surface properties, and atmospheric conditions of exoplanets... more Characterization of the composition, surface properties, and atmospheric conditions of exoplanets is a rapidly progressing field as the data to study such aspects become more accessible. Bright targets, such as the multi-planet 55 Cancri system, allow an opportunity to achieve high signal-to-noise for the detection of photometric phase variations to constrain the planetary albedos. The recent discovery that that inner-most planet, 55 Cancri e, transits the host star introduces new prospects for studying this system. Here we calculate photometric phase curves at optical wavelengths for the system with varying assumptions for the surface and atmospheric properties of 55 Cancri e. We show that the large differences in geometric albedo allows one to distinguish between various surface models, that the scattering phase function cannot be constrained with foreseeable data, and that planet b will contribute significantly to the phase variation depending upon the surface of planet e. We discuss detection limits and how these models may be used with future instrumentation to further characterize these planets and distinguish between various assumptions regarding surface conditions.
Characterization of exoplanets has matured in recent years, particularly through studies of exopl... more Characterization of exoplanets has matured in recent years, particularly through studies of exoplanetary atmospheres of transiting planets at infra-red wavelenegths. A relatively unexplored region of exoplanet parameter space is the thermal detection of long-period eccentric planets during periastron passage. Detection of these signatures reveals important information on the albedo, radiative time constant, and heat redistribution efficiency of giant planetary atmospheres under these extreme conditions. Here we propose to monitor three such exoplanets whose orbital parameters have already been refined to great precision. The results of this study will constrain heat signatures from these planets and be used in building atmospheric models for planets which undergo large changes in flux.
The discovery of transiting planets around bright stars holds the potential to greatly enhance ou... more The discovery of transiting planets around bright stars holds the potential to greatly enhance our understanding of planetary atmospheres. In this work we present the search for transits of HD 168443b, a massive planet orbiting the bright star HD 168443 V=6.92 with a period of 58.11 days. The high eccentricity of the planetary orbit e=0.53 significantly enhances the a-priori transit probability beyond that expected for a circular orbit, making HD 168443 a candidate for our ongoing Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey (TERMS). Using additional radial velocities from Keck-HIRES, we refined the orbital parameters of this multi-planet system and derived a new transit ephemeris for HD 168443b. The reduced uncertainties in the transit window make a photometric transit search practicable. Photometric observations acquired during predicted transit windows were obtained on three nights. CTIO 1.0 m photometry acquired on 2010 September 7 had the required precision to detect a transit but fell just outside of our final transit window. Nightly photometry from the T8 0.8 m Automated Photometric Telescope (APT) at Fairborn Observatory, acquired over a span of 109 nights, demonstrates that HD 168443 is constant on a time scale of weeks. Higher-cadence photometry on 2011 April 28 and June 25 shows no evidence of a transit. We are able to rule out a non-grazing transit of HD 168443b.
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Papers by Diana Dragomir